Milk Price- Please read Mod note in post #1

mahoney_j

greenfield21 wrote: »

So what is the base price predicted for the next 12 months would you think. The big companies must be making reasonable predictions for 2016.

Best case 26/28 worst case 22/25 and this place will be as gloomy as fook

orm0nd

mahoney_j wrote: »

6 more months of low prices and comming into late spring early summer when cash flow is under most pressure is when the **** will hit the fan

we haven't reached the bottom yet, so I was informed to day @ Nenagh Show

kowtow

greenfield21 wrote: »

So what is the base price predicted for the next 12 months would you think. The big companies must be making reasonable predictions for 2016.

If it was me making a prediction based on the GDT, I think my starting point would be:

1. Extreme swings with GDT index over 1000 seem to be a post 2009 phenomenon, as opposed to 1999-2009.

2. Based on that it might be prudent to expect the average GDT index over the next six years to be about 30% below the average over the most recent six years.

Far too many other factors (euro, $, etc. ) to make that anything other than a back of the envelope idea, but that is where I would start.

So if the 3 year GDT average fluctuated between 600-900 where would that put average Irish milk prices?

freedominacup

orm0nd wrote: »

we haven't reached the bottom yet, so I was informed to day @ Nenagh Show

If that was by a co-op employee you had a right to tell him farmers were taking no more pain and as shareholders they were demanding huge cost cutting to protect their dividend.

mahoney_j

orm0nd wrote: »

we haven't reached the bottom yet, so I was informed to day @ Nenagh Show

Arrabawn tent??,heard someone else in there came out with same news .in fairness probably right

Buford T. Justice XIX

frazzledhome wrote: »

What will your average price for the year be? That's why I mentioned last year iykwim

I don't expect too many to agree but I'm used to that

Tbh, I don't look too much at milk price as it's outside my control.

My cost base would be lower than that area, having land similar to yours in that it's drought prone.

Iirc, last year was 20.6c (lower volumes supplied and silage bought) and the year before 18.5c, which would be a 'typical' years cost.

Then I would have to add loan repayments for farm development and tax on them also to the actual costs(because they aren't included in the production costs:rolleyes:) so you could add another c. 7c onto the costs again. Only 18 months of that crap left though:).

At current prices, I would be about 2c above the creamery average so around the 29-30c for the year

kevthegaff

Greengrass1 wrote: »

I might be wrong but did ming write that?
Odd the way they don't say who wrote it

kowtow wrote: »

If it was me making a prediction based on the GDT, I think my starting point would be:

1. Extreme swings with GDT index over 1000 seem to be a post 2009 phenomenon, as opposed to 1999-2009.

2. Based on that it might be prudent to expect the average GDT index over the next six years to be about 30% below the average over the most recent six years.

Far too many other factors (euro, $, etc. ) to make that anything other than a back of the envelope idea, but that is where I would start.

So if the 3 year GDT average fluctuated between 600-900 where would that put average Irish milk prices?

what does that equate to? My brain is fried witn the hangover!

Buford T. Justice XIX

freedominacup wrote: »

If that was by a co-op employee you had a right to tell him farmers were taking no more pain and as shareholders they were demanding huge cost cutting to protect their dividend.

You can't do that, sure how would they survive not having a definite amount of money coming in every month.....

jaymla627

mahoney_j wrote: »

Best case 26/28 worst case 22/25 and this place will be as gloomy as fook

If paddy power where doing odds on it I'd reckon sub 20 is on the card's, america with their price protection scheme are going to destroy the market as they don't have to pull back on production they where responsible for 670 ton of 825 thousand tonnes of extra milk produced worldwide according to the journal this week in the period Jan to May 2015....
It's crazy that the us government signed of on the bill above its going to cost them a fortune but since they're not partial to debt they really don't care

orm0nd

freedominacup wrote: »

If that was by a co-op employee you had a right to tell him farmers were taking no more pain and as shareholders they were demanding huge cost cutting to protect their dividend.

when you're around as long as I am, you get to the stage when you say "why bother ?"

I fought the cause maybe before some of you lot were born , ifa/icmsa , action group & co op meetings & pickets at meat plants,

at this stage i go out to meet old fogies like myself & have the banter :rolleyes:

Dawggone

orm0nd wrote: »

when you're around as long as I am, you get to the stage when you say "why bother ?"

I fought the cause maybe before some of you lot were born , ifa/icmsa , action group & co op meetings & pickets at meat plants,

at this stage i go out to meet old fogies like myself & have the banter :rolleyes:

On those days where I seem to be repeatedly battering a wall with my head, I admit to thinking like that, a lot.

Deepsouthwest

Dawggone wrote: »

What's dftg?

Don't feed the gondolas (apparently named after a politician from my neck of the woods!) a satirical look at events type of programme from the early 00's, Ming used to be a guest panelist on it from time to time.
U tube it, some of it was pretty funny!

freedominacup

Deepsouthwest wrote: »

Don't feed the gondolas (apparently named after a politician from my neck of the woods!) a satirical look at events type of programme from the early 00's, Ming used to be a guest panelist on it from time to time.
U tube it, some of it was pretty funny!

Sorry dsw but I reckon it was mid-nineties. Yer older than you think. Always remember mrs freedom and her sister saying the first night we daw it "there's BOC, htf did BOC get on the telly" bit of a legend in his own lunchtime was BOC in UCC in the early nineties.

Deepsouthwest

freedominacup wrote: »

Sorry dsw but I reckon it was mid-nineties. Yer older than you think. Always remember mrs freedom and her sister saying the first night we daw it "there's BOC, htf did BOC get on the telly" bit of a legend in his own lunchtime was BOC in UCC in the early nineties.

Just googled it, ran from 97 to 01, So I'm a little older than I think and ur a little younger!

whelan2

Anyone watching 're run of ettg now

frazzledhome

Buford T. Justice V wrote: »

Tbh, I don't look too much at milk price as it's outside my control.

My cost base would be lower than that area, having land similar to yours in that it's drought prone.

Iirc, last year was 20.6c (lower volumes supplied and silage bought) and the year before 18.5c, which would be a 'typical' years cost.

Then I would have to add loan repayments for farm development and tax on them also to the actual costs(because they aren't included in the production costs:rolleyes:) so you could add another c. 7c onto the costs again. Only 18 months of that crap left though:).

At current prices, I would be about 2c above the creamery average so around the 29-30c for the year

Think I've you sussed

Buford T. Justice XIX

frazzledhome wrote: »

Think I've you sussed

Careful now, frazzled.

I had to marry the last person that told me that:p

kevthegaff

frazzledhome wrote: »

Think I've you sussed

the only thing i know about butford is hes a pool fan, poor creature!!

Buford T. Justice XIX

kevthegaff wrote: »

the only thing i know about butford is hes a pool fan, poor creature!!

The lads that think a jersey v friesian debate gets heated on here should head over for a Rafa v Rodgers net spend debate;)

tanko

kevthegaff wrote: »

the only thing i know about butford is hes a pool fan, poor creature!!

butford???:pac:

kevthegaff

Buford T. Justice V wrote: »

The lads that think a jersey v friesian debate gets heated on here should head over for a Rafa v Rodgers net spend debate;)

Im more of a rafa man meself but not a pool fan, approaching 300 million talk about a bubble!!

kevthegaff

A bad milk price and no champions league for the next 5 yrs depressing! Imagine being a toon fan;-)

Buford T. Justice XIX

kevthegaff wrote: »

Im more of a rafa man meself but not a pool fan, approaching 300 million talk about a bubble!!

And that's just ManU this season:cool:

mahoney_j

Gdt -9.3% today big drops for whole milk and skim milk powders .still early season in New Zealand with quantities only going to rise from now on going through it .dairy farmers must be under savage pressure out there now with what looks like a second full season with below cost milk production .brother dose a good bit of work with Gea down there and said investement work there in parlours etc has ground to a halt over last 6 months

frazzledhome

mahoney_j wrote: »

Gdt -9.3% today big drops for whole milk and skim milk powders .still early season in New Zealand with quantities only going to rise from now on going through it .dairy farmers must be under savage pressure out there now with what looks like a second full season with below cost milk production .brother dose a good bit of work with Gea down there and said investement work there in parlours etc has ground to a halt over last 6 months

To add to that they would've usually have gotten a top up payment on the forecasted payout. No so last year so real pressure mounting.

It'll be interesting to see if it'll arrest the growth in production. They grew by 2% last year.

Environmental controls are really beginning to have effect on fa level with storage now a requirement.

Milked out

mahoney_j wrote: »

Gdt -9.3% today big drops for whole milk and skim milk powders .still early season in New Zealand with quantities only going to rise from now on going through it .dairy farmers must be under savage pressure out there now with what looks like a second full season with below cost milk production .brother dose a good bit of work with Gea down there and said investement work there in parlours etc has ground to a halt over last 6 months

Uncle knows of 5 here have put off parlour work, shows how many still depending on cash flow to keep things ticking over

yosemitesam1

mahoney_j wrote: »

Gdt -9.3% today big drops for whole milk and skim milk powders .still early season in New Zealand with quantities only going to rise from now on going through it .dairy farmers must be under savage pressure out there now with what looks like a second full season with below cost milk production .brother dose a good bit of work with Gea down there and said investement work there in parlours etc has ground to a halt over last 6 months

Was reading somewhere nz price is 60% lower than US, Netherlands 20% lower. Californias the only state reducing output but overall production still up.

mahoney_j

yosemitesam1 wrote: »

Was reading somewhere nz price is 60% lower than US, Netherlands 20% lower. Californias the only state reducing output but overall production still up.

Kiwis are sort of goosed as majority of their product is lumped into skim and whole milk powder .very little value added products

Dawggone

mahoney_j wrote: »

Kiwis are sort of goosed as majority of their product is lumped into skim and whole milk powder .very little value added products

Where did I hear that before?
Déjà vu?

Shame they went down that road as they could add value easy enough. Distance from the marketplace would be an issue.

How long will the Fonterra CEO hold his position? (Btw I've no idea of NZ business...)

RightTurnClyde

yosemitesam1 wrote: »

Was reading somewhere nz price is 60% lower than US, Netherlands 20% lower. Californias the only state reducing output but overall production still up.

Californian reduction probably due more to water than price

( BIL went out 12 months ago to work in Silicon Valley, heard a few of the lads working with him talking about water charges and using a bucket in the shower. So he thought, oh here we go, the yanks taking the piss out of the paddy. But they are actually using a bucket in the shower to catch the cold water to be used in the toilet. He has a family of 2 adults and 3 kids. They're paying over $200 a month on water and if they go over their water 'quota' it could go up to $1000 a month very easily. )