Time to vote FF

hyperborean

In the last 22 years of eligibility I have always used my vote, voting left for the greens and labour with the odd protest (ignorant youth) vote to SF in my early years.

It occurs to me that come the next election we are going to see the unthinkable, a FF led government and I might just be one of the people who give them a vote
Currently the labour vote has collapsed and FG are static, there are many reasons for this, mainly incompetence in office from both parties but also importantly the fact people are struggling to pay back what they borrowed and are not willing to accept responsibility so the government will have to take the blame . Labour, despite their recent success (2011 GE) only ever had a support base of 10-12% nationwide and mainly Urban , they got a lot of anti FG votes during the 2011 GE which has dissipated now. FG are FG, in their history they have never been much more than opposition to FF, FF lite is probably apt as they are less organised and have less talent.
Urban voters know this and can see the FG machine deflect (ala FF) problems onto the minor partner so they will not move to FG, actually they will never move to FG, this leaves FF and SF

FF, now they ****ed the country big time by allowing the wishes of the electorate to dictate policy, a good government uses policy to stabilise and strengthen both the economy and society, is there a chance they learned from from their mistakes?

SF, no no no no..... in their current form they can never be allowed to enter government. Although the swing of left from labour and ex FF is strengthening for the moment common sense will prevail and they will end up on maybe 10%, and on the periphery.

The other eejits, ming and his crew will see a dramatic drop next election as the old status quo returns... and thankfully.

So back to my reasoning, FG are going to push for majority next time but will fall well short because the longer they are in office the clearer their failing are becoming, labour wont enter government with FG as I believe they will have some internal problems to sort out ( a push against the old) and the vast majority of the swing to labour will go back to FF, SF are economically illiterate and have a support base of emotive spouting malcontents who make it very easy to dislike them, so in truth there is only one way to change and that is to revert to type, the most organised and experienced political machine in Irish history might just be what is needed to sort out the mess they caused in the first place.

so FF and probably next time round boys and girls

Any one want to explain why I shouldn't vote for FF next time? Or where the gaping holes are in my Saturday morning synopsis?

Is there any alternative?

Taxburden carrier

Insanity ....continuing to do the same thing and expecting a different outcome.

Phoebas

FF will continue to strengthen, but they'll have a real problem securing a coalition partner. My guess is that they'll have to rule out SF early on in the GE campaign and nobody else will want to touch them.

We could end up with a very unstable government patched together with Independents.


FF have been reasonably good in opposition, but they just find it too hard to avoid the temptation of populist policies, a temptation that only grows as the election nears.

Slick50

hyperborean wrote: »

It occurs to me that come the next election we are going to see the unthinkable, a FF led government and I might just be one of the people who give them a vote

.....so in truth there is only one way to change and that is to revert to type,

Insanity is right.

But, unfortunately you are also probably right. Enda & Co. still don't realise that they are only there by default.... a tsunami of anti-FF emotion.

Triangle

The logic of your thinking is flawed. Instead of finding an alternative you are looking to find a reason to support a flawed party that brought us to this place in the first place.

What the parties seem to have forgotten is that they represent the people of Ireland not the banks.
And you're reasoning that people don't want to pay back their debts is flawed too - most people want to repay their debts - just not the banks/investors debts.

Judgement Day

OP I can only think that you must have been dropped on your head as a baby.

johnnyskeleton

hyperborean wrote: »

In the last 22 years of eligibility I have always used my vote, voting left for the greens and labour with the odd protest (ignorant youth) vote to SF in my early years.

There's nothing wrong with a protest vote. In fact, I take the view that we desperately need more protest votes and more suitable candidates for those votes.

SF are not however good protest vote material. They are now too big so have a chance of being a government party but also they have a fixed set of policies. While you might agree with their policies, that doesn't make them a protest vote - it is a positive vote for semi-Marxist nationalism.

The big problem in my view is the party system. Of the 100+ government TDs, only about 20-30 do any actual governing. The rest spend their time doing favorite for constituents. They can't vote against government proposals without a serious backlash, even if they don't agree with the proposal.

The real protest vote in my view is the election of people like Shane Ross, someone intelligent and incisive who can make actual reasoned criticism of government policy. People who are not caught by a fixed policy or party line, but who are free to deal with each issue according to their conscience, or at the very least be the voice of meaningful dissent.

Plus, if the technical group gets its act together people might lose their fear of voting independent.

It occurs to me that come the next election we are going to see the unthinkable, a FF led government and I might just be one of the people who give them a vote
Currently the labour vote has collapsed and FG are static, there are many reasons for this, mainly incompetence in office from both parties but also importantly the fact people are struggling to pay back what they borrowed and are not willing to accept responsibility so the government will have to take the blame .

Currently is the important word, and hopefully by the time the election comes around in 2016 people will be a bit more sensible. Don't forget that people will criticise the government in opinion polls to make them afraid for their seats and make them try harder.

Plus, in typical FF style, I'm sure budget 2014 will be bad, budget 2015 will be declared as the turned the corner budget and budget 2016 will be a bumper giveaway, just in time for the election.

Labour, despite their recent success (2011 GE) only ever had a support base of 10-12% nationwide and mainly Urban , they got a lot of anti FG votes during the 2011 GE which has dissipated now. FG are FG, in their history they have never been much more than opposition to FF, FF lite is probably apt as they are less organised and have less talent.
Urban voters know this and can see the FG machine deflect (ala FF) problems onto the minor partner so they will not move to FG, actually they will never move to FG, this leaves FF and SF

My sincere hope is that, whatever about the people of Laois Offaly and the like (who are a complete lost cause - electing Brian cowens brother to his seat? Ffs) Dublin will continue to be a FF free zone in 2016. That at least is a possible, if unlikely, outcome. But there is no doubt that FF have done a fantastic job convincing ignorant turnip munching types that hey we're tricked by them nasty banks and that the recession is actually FG and Labours fault.

FF, now they ****ed the country big time by allowing the wishes of the electorate to dictate policy, a good government uses policy to stabilise and strengthen both the economy and society, is there a chance they learned from from their mistakes?

Really it is people who need to learn from their mistakes - what is good for me is not necessarily good for the country.

So back to my reasoning, FG are going to push for majority next time but will fall well short because the longer they are in office the clearer their failing are becoming, labour wont enter government with FG as I believe they will have some internal problems to sort out ( a push against the old) and the vast majority of the swing to labour will go back to FF, SF are economically illiterate and have a support base of emotive spouting malcontents who make it very easy to dislike them, so in truth there is only one way to change and that is to revert to type, the most organised and experienced political machine in Irish history might just be what is needed to sort out the mess they caused in the first place.

so FF and probably next time round boys and girls

Two and a half years is a long time in politics. Who knows what will happen between now and then. A strong upturn would see FG returned no problem. But even if they continue to lose support in polls, I think by the time Election Day comes and given what is said above about people voting differently in polls and in the actual election, I would be surprised if FG is not still the biggest party, albeit with less seats than now.

Any one want to explain why I shouldn't vote for FF next time? Or where the gaping holes are in my Saturday morning synopsis?

Because they have no policies other than corruption and doing anything to get re-elected, and anyone who puts their country above themselves would not only avoid them out of principle (because of, you know, destroying the country beyond recognition) but also because they simply have nothing to offer to intelligent, unselfish people.

Is there any alternative?

The alternative options are not great, but they are there. FG are similar in policy to FF, but with less corruption and more economic literacy. Labour are being hammered because of cuts but surely people can see that cuts are mandatory because of FFs mess? Independents are in my view the best way to break the party system, so they will get my vote.

KyussBishop

FF were as corrupt as can be, they didn't allow the populace to screw up the country they, FF, screwed up the country (in collaboration with banks/finance).

There is not a chance in hell that they did not know the bubble they were helping pump was unsustainable, and a lot of people made shítloads of money from it, and many in the party were near-openly corrupt.

You can be guaranteed FF would have done little different to FG if they stayed in power, because the choices are at an EU level, not national; Ahern was just recently leading the helm of a private group ready to buy up access to our national forests ffs, so you can be sure their goals would be one of mass privatization, spun off at a pittance for personal gain.


No party we elect nationally will make any difference to the crisis, because the EU is in control of the purse strings here; short of leaving the single currency, there is no real way to get back control.

If you're going to spend your vote, spend it on Independents or promote another worthwhile (thus currently non-existent) third party (even if its a minority) who may actually have some principals, and are not just a part of the same corrupt institutionalized parties, which will give the country more of the same crap, wrapped up under a different banner (when the big parties are all under the same banner, of protecting influential financial/business and other monied interests, who can best afford to lobby them to gain influence).

hyperborean

johnnyskeleton wrote: »

There's nothing wrong with a protest vote. In fact, I take the view that we desperately need more protest votes and more suitable candidates for those votes.

SF are not however good protest vote material. They are now too big so have a chance of being a government party but also they have a fixed set of policies. While you might agree with their policies, that doesn't make them a protest vote - it is a positive vote for semi-Marxist nationalism.

The big problem in my view is the party system. Of the 100+ government TDs, only about 20-30 do any actual governing. The rest spend their time doing favorite for constituents. They can't vote against government proposals without a serious backlash, even if they don't agree with the proposal.

The real protest vote in my view is the election of people like Shane Ross, someone intelligent and incisive who can make actual reasoned criticism of government policy. People who are not caught by a fixed policy or party line, but who are free to deal with each issue according to their conscience, or at the very least be the voice of meaningful dissent.

Plus, if the technical group gets its act together people might lose their fear of voting independent.



Currently is the important word, and hopefully by the time the election comes around in 2016 people will be a bit more sensible. Don't forget that people will criticise the government in opinion polls to make them afraid for their seats and make them try harder.

Plus, in typical FF style, I'm sure budget 2014 will be bad, budget 2015 will be declared as the turned the corner budget and budget 2016 will be a bumper giveaway, just in time for the election.



My sincere hope is that, whatever about the people of Laois Offaly and the like (who are a complete lost cause - electing Brian cowens brother to his seat? Ffs) Dublin will continue to be a FF free zone in 2016. That at least is a possible, if unlikely, outcome. But there is no doubt that FF have done a fantastic job convincing ignorant turnip munching types that hey we're tricked by them nasty banks and that the recession is actually FG and Labours fault.



Really it is people who need to learn from their mistakes - what is good for me is not necessarily good for the country.



Two and a half years is a long time in politics. Who knows what will happen between now and then. A strong upturn would see FG returned no problem. But even if they continue to lose support in polls, I think by the time Election Day comes and given what is said above about people voting differently in polls and in the actual election, I would be surprised if FG is not still the biggest party, albeit with less seats than now.



Because they have no policies other than corruption and doing anything to get re-elected, and anyone who puts their country above themselves would not only avoid them out of principle (because of, you know, destroying the country beyond recognition) but also because they simply have nothing to offer to intelligent, unselfish people.



The alternative options are not great, but they are there. FG are similar in policy to FF, but with less corruption and more economic literacy. Labour are being hammered because of cuts but surely people can see that cuts are mandatory because of FFs mess? Independents are in my view the best way to break the party system, so they will get my vote.

Thanks for sharing your thoughts, heading out for a stroll so haven't got time to address our differences (later for sure), one thing that struck me was the 2016 election year, if SF keep getting stronger will the government think it be better to look at a pre budget 2015 election, because for all the wrong reasons SF will hijack the 100th anniversary of the rising for their own and maybe swing 5% on a good day from it? and FF positioning itself as the republican party wont harm them either.

shamrock55

Anyone who votes ff after what this country is going through needs to take a good hard fcuking look at themselves id vote for anyone before id vote for that shower

FF bankrupted the country and you want to vote them back in???????

Seriously? April fools isn`t for a few days yet

wyndhurst

Like it or not........They also have the fact that Micheál Martin is by far the best party leader in place at the moment.

washman3

hyperborean wrote: »

FF, now they ****ed the country big time by allowing the wishes of the electorate to dictate policy, a good government uses policy to stabilise and strengthen both the economy and society, is there a chance they learned from from their mistakes?

FF destroyed the country by allowing speculators,bankers,builders and their other corrupt crony pals to dictate policy. the vast majority of ordinary decent people who borrowed did so simply to put a roof over their heads,yet are now paying the price for Fianna Fail's actions.
Hell will freeze over before i or any of my family will ever vote FF.:mad:

smcgiff

Very good post, Johnny, I'd only differ in thinking re voting independents. They, all to often, are local issue candidates only.

Princess Consuela Bananahammock

wyndhurst wrote: »

Like it or not........They also have the fact that Micheál Martin is by far the best party leader in place at the moment.

People said that about Bertie soem years ago.

Seriously. Have we not learnt the first time? FF are only interested in one thing and that's FF.

Medu

hyperborean wrote: »

so in truth there is only one way to change and that is to revert to type, the most organised and experienced political machine in Irish history might just be what is needed to sort out the mess they caused in the first place.

so FF and probably next time round boys and girls

Any one want to explain why I shouldn't vote for FF next time? Or where the gaping holes are in my Saturday morning synopsis?

Is there any alternative?

I am fairly sure you are just trolling but...
Forgot about the mess that FF made and just think of the last few months of the life of the previous government. Minister's unaware that the IMF were in town, leadership battles during economical meltdown, the Taoiseach not been the leader of his own party, bond rates heading for record levels due to a complete lack of leadership and direction. Everyday was a soap opera, and a very costly one at that.

Silentcorner

Medu wrote: »

I am fairly sure you are just trolling but...
Forgot about the mess that FF made and just think of the last few months of the life of the previous government. Minister's unaware that the IMF were in town, leadership battles during economical meltdown, the Taoiseach not been the leader of his own party, bond rates heading for record levels due to a complete lack of leadership and direction. Everyday was a soap opera, and a very costly one at that.

And just to add, as our country disintegrated under emigration/poverty/suicide, Cowen went on the piss, on a REGULAR basis I am reliably informed...just think about that...his cabinet stood by him...

What will be very interesting will be the next FF manifesto

Will it be catch all like every manifesto they have ever had - and a large percentage of us know where those policies lead us.

Will they lean to the left (protecting PS workers for instance)

Will they lean to the right

Either way they will be alienating a large percentage of people that would have voted for them in the past. I predict they will win between 30-35 seats in the next election...they will face a choice enter into coalition with Fg or SF plus a medley of others, whichever they choose they will lose...if they go Fg they will face the same fate as Lab/PDs/Greens...if they choose SF they will lose the middleclass to whom a vote for SF is simply unpalatable.

All this time the core FF is getting older, it is passing away...they're finances are precarious to say the least...remember approx 20,000 voters didn't turn up in ME during the week...we can say with confidence that they are not FF voters, we saw the largest amount of FF votes that constituency will ever poll.

That wont stop the spin, FFers will defend the banner to the death...but that death is a lot nearer than they will ever admit...there will be good days ahead, but that is all it will be...days...the party does not have a future beyond that.

I keep hearing about this "renewal"....renewal of what?
I keep hearing about FF "going back to its roots"....what roots...the civil war?

I am an ex member of that party, and during the good times they struggled to attract youth, they are now toxic to that youth.

Take it from someone who was in that organisation....it is a political pyramid scheme....nothing has changed, they need power to fuel that scheme, otherwise it will rot and die.

goose2005

wyndhurst wrote: »

Like it or not........They also have the fact that Micheál Martin is by far the best party leader in place at the moment.

Leading member of the Ahern and Cowen governments.
Set up the HSE.
Minister for Enterprise, Trade and Employment during the boomiest years of the housing bubble.

Yeah, a grand fella altogether.

johnnyskeleton

smcgiff wrote: »

Very good post, Johnny, I'd only differ in thinking re voting independents. They, all to often, are local issue candidates only.

There are three types of independents:
1) wolves in Sheeps clothing eg FF candidates in all but name;
2) local / single issue candidates;
3) people with something to actually add by having political views of their own.

While I have a preference for no 3), I don't mind the single issue guys because they at least reduce the numbers of the large parties. Obviously the first group are a serious problem - they vote with the government in exchange for pork barrel rewards.

johnnyskeleton

Silentcorner wrote: »

I keep hearing about this "renewal"....renewal of what?
I keep hearing about FF "going back to its roots"....what roots...the civil war?
.

This is the real "why is the emperor wearing no clothes question". There are so many deluded or wilfully ignorant people in Ireland that believe FF are the only party that represents the "ordinary man" and therefore is the only part that is not out to shaft them. One would have hoped that this dillusion would be shattered by the Bertie/cowen era but bizarrely it's not and people seem happy to blame FG and Labour for the failings of FF.

I despair of the Irish electorate sometimes.

Lockstep

Judgement Day wrote: »

OP I can only think that you must have been dropped on your head as a baby.

Personal abuse will not be tolerated. Don't do this again.

goose2005

Medu wrote: »

I am fairly sure you are just trolling but...
Forgot about the mess that FF made and just think of the last few months of the life of the previous government. Minister's unaware that the IMF were in town, leadership battles during economical meltdown, the Taoiseach not been the leader of his own party, bond rates heading for record levels due to a complete lack of leadership and direction. Everyday was a soap opera, and a very costly one at that.

Don't forget ministers resigning so they could hand the ministry to a younger TD for the few weeks before the election, but then the Green Party wouldn't vote in the new ministers so we ended up with about 7 people in the cabinet

hatrickpatrick

I have a lot of controversial political views as most people here will be aware of, and I'm a firm believer that our entire system of government needs to be completely redesigned from the bottom up, but amidst all of these complicated and still forming ideologies, one absolute fact reigns supreme above all else:

FF must never, ever, ever, ever be allowed anywhere near any position of authority ever again for as long as that miserable organization continues to blight this country with its existence.

StillWaters

hatrickpatrick wrote: »

I have a lot of controversial political views as most people here will be aware of, and I'm a firm believer that our entire system of government needs to be completely redesigned from the bottom up, but amidst all of these complicated and still forming ideologies, one absolute fact reigns supreme above all else:

FF must never, ever, ever, ever be allowed anywhere near any position of authority ever again for as long as that miserable organization continues to blight this country with its existence.

I fear you will be disappointed. I think there are many of us reeling from Meath, and realising just how short the memory of the electorate is. Whilst we always knew there were die hard FF voters who could never, ever lift their pencil to vote for another party, and just abstained in the last election, we didnt see how quickly the voters who switched allegiances would switch back.

P_1

Fianna Fail have overseen a series of boom and bust economic cycles for our lovely little country. Why would we want this to continue?

thebman

No sane person would vote for FF unless they want to end up back here 10 years later.

We need political reform, not cronyism...

StillWaters

P_1 wrote: »

Fianna Fail have overseen a series of boom and bust economic cycles for our lovely little country. Why would we want this to continue?

In fairness, you cannot blame FF for the boom/bust cycle. Its how the boom is managed, and decent governance would have ensured we did not have bubble/bust.

melekalikimaka

StillWaters wrote: »

In fairness, you cannot blame FF for the boom/bust cycle. Its how the boom is managed, and decent governance would have ensured we did not have bubble/bust.

Most Irish people have issues with blaming themselves for their hardships, FF has been a good go to for most their woes over the last 5 years, why argue against it now

Anynama141

johnnyskeleton wrote: »

The real protest vote in my view is the election of people like Shane Ross, someone intelligent and incisive who can make actual reasoned criticism of government policy. People who are not caught by a fixed policy or party line, but who are free to deal with each issue according to their conscience, or at the very least be the voice of meaningful dissent.

I used to have time for Shane Ross when he was a senator, but he's been revealed as a self-seeking populist idiot in the Dail.

He was a big fan of Fingers Fingleton back in the day, even as he castigated AIB and BOI. You never hear about that though, oddly enough.

I'd vote for Sinn Fein all day long before voting for Fianna Failure, and I can't abide their terrorist/thuggish associations. At least they stand for something.

narddog

StillWaters wrote: »

In fairness, you cannot blame FF for the boom/bust cycle. .

Yes you can.

If during the boom years they had held a steady hand at the till and not stoked the fires which led to our property/construction based mirage of a booming economy, we would have had a gently landing instead of a crash. FF losing the run of themselves and thinking they had reinvented the economic wheel has led us to ruin. Voting them back in is absolutely crazy. With the possible exception of Lemass, our country has been very poorly served by FF leaders.

tayto lover

In my recent years I have swore not to vote for FF, FG, Greens, Labour and the Shinners because of some issue or another.
I have nobody to vote for except some Independent who will probably be a waste of a vote.
What a state Irish politics is in.