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Punting - why value is the key

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    #272
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 23,339 ✭✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    hucklebuck wrote: »
    ........... I don't think it was too unrealistic to expect one of them to run to within 10lbs of their marks and win that Gold Cup but it didn't happen.
    ..........

    Certainly not too unrealistic, I agree :)
    Certainly not a you know what either though :pac:


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    #273
    mdwexford
    Registered Users Posts: 11,274 ✭✭✭✭mdwexford


    RoverJames wrote: »
    Indeed, because we all know laying short priced horses randomly on Betfair leads to your bank growing x 6 :)

    I have reasons for laying that number of horses a day? I do indeed, I consider them all underpriced :)

    I get accused of talking through my hole and am asked to post my betting history to confirm I'm not, I'm than called a Muppet and accused of randomly laying horses by picking random numbers !!

    Your buddy CS can fill you in on the odds of that happening ;)


    I had a look at the SPs of that two horse race you're blowing on about, 7/4 and 3/1 !!!!! :pac:

    And you reckon I don't have a clue :)

    You study enough form to consider 15 horses a day at gaff meetings underpriced.

    Well either you put countless hours into form study which for the amount of money you are making is a huge waste of time or you just pick random horses.
    RoverJames wrote: »
    I thought it a very decent bet, that Lexus form was not too bad at all, especially against a KS on the decline and a horse ridden by a dentist.

    Stop ?? Or what ? ;)

    So you thought beating Rubi Light and QDLR and running in crap handicap hurdles the rest of the year was Gold Cup winning form, lol at you.

    There was no evidence KS was on the decline, he had won the two top 3m chases of the season.

    Calling him a dentist shows what a clueless mug you really are.
    Did you say that the previous year and lay him?
    Did you lay him in this season KG because he has a dentist onboard?

    Don't then, continue to look like a freak.


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    #274
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 23,339 ✭✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    mdwexford wrote: »
    You study enough form to consider 15 horses a day at gaff meetings underpriced.

    Gaff meetings are the best place to spot poor value :)
    mdwexford wrote: »
    Well either you put countless hours into form study which for the amount of money you are making is a huge waste of time or you just pick random horses.

    Well anyone with more than two functioning brain cells can see I'm quite unlikely to be laying horses randomly so I'd be reckoning that option isn't a correct representation of what's happening.

    The other option is somewhat flawed too, I run a little business, a small two man show that is my full time job, I would spend 40 to 55 hours per week at that so in the winter I only lay horses generally at the weekend or some evenings if I have no business related stuff to do and there's AW on.

    I don't have countless hours to spend at this but it doesn't take too long to do anything if you're good at it, others would struggle to conceptually imagine it being done no doubt, yourself for instance. I'm not actually doing it for monetary gain, I do plan on increasing my liability per lay as the bank increases in size, and increase in size it most likely will.


    mdwexford wrote: »
    So you thought beating Rubi Light and QDLR and running in crap handicap hurdles the rest of the year was Gold Cup winning form, lol at you.
    I reckoned he'd stay well and the Lexus form impressed me, I don't look at hurdles form when looking at a chase, it often doesn't transfer well :)
    mdwexford wrote: »
    There was no evidence KS was on the decline, he had won the two top 3m chases of the season.
    Ever heard of the bath tub curve, look at it like a bulb in a car, the older it is the more likely it is to go pop :)

    mdwexford wrote: »
    Calling him a dentist shows what a clueless mug you really are.
    Well he's involved in the game, I've often reckoned lads I know were mechanics as they owned garages, some of them were some weren't, he's no pro jockey anyway :)
    Back to the clueless mug issue, two horse race dude, 7/4 and 3/1, do the maths ;)
    mdwexford wrote: »
    Did you say that the previous year and lay him?
    Did you lay him in this season KG because he has a dentist onboard?
    I defo didn't actually lay him in the 2011 Gold Cup but I backed a different horse.

    I did lay him in this season's King George actually :) You could have checked that yourself ;)
    GB / Hayd 24th Nov / 15:05 3m Grd1 Chs Long Run Lay 2.6 25.00 2.6 25.00
    As I mentioned 428 of the first 1400 horses I layed since August have won, it helps to keep the ole commission generated at a decent level, every cloud and all that. Of course when laying at prices you consider to be underpriced you don't really care about the result, once you know your beans and aren't laying randomly, probably lost you there, apologies ;)
    mdwexford wrote: »
    Don't then, continue to look like a freak.

    Don't what?

    I think your posts are painting a very decent picture as to the class of chap you are :)

    We all knew it anyway from your previous drivel.


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    #275
    mdwexford
    Registered Users Posts: 11,274 ✭✭✭✭mdwexford


    So you are saying you don't know the form of every horse you are laying.

    If its not for monetary gain then its every stupider, that's the only reason to bet.

    If the Lexus form impressed you it shows how badly you race read.
    Laying Long Run in this years KG was an awful lay fwiw.

    Keep on making the 150 quid a month, it's a good way to pass the hours.

    You are a small time chimp backing for pennies and are delighted with a few hundred quid profit over months and months. That says a lot about your life.


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    #276
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 23,339 ✭✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    mdwexford wrote: »
    So you are saying you don't know the form of every horse you are laying.
    I'd have had a look at it, interpreted it, and decided was the lay price value or not. Sometimes if the lay price is a tad too fat I'll place a bet for in running and if the horse is still running after a furlong the bet is often matched, I'll cancel the in running ones sometimes if they're not matched in a timely fashion.
    mdwexford wrote: »
    If its not for monetary gain then its every stupider, that's the only reason to bet.
    Even stupider?
    How many people do you know who actually make money from betting? It's a hobby that incidentally the better you are at the less you lose, a tiny few can actually win. Many businesses make a loss in their first year so any one with a bit of an entrepreneurial spirit in them can see how nice it is to grow from a small starting bank. Dim wits couldn't of course.
    mdwexford wrote: »
    If the Lexus form impressed you it shows how badly you race read.
    Laying Long Run in this years KG was an awful lay fwiw.

    An awful lay fwiw, fwiw Long Run was an awful bet in the 2012 GC, fwiw ;)
    mdwexford wrote: »
    Keep on making the 150 quid a month, it's a good way to pass the hours.

    719.57 / 3 is not equal to €150, are you capable at all with the numbers dude, oops, i forgot the two horse race thing, you're actually not good with numbers at all :)

    mdwexford wrote: »
    You are a small time chimp backing for pennies and are delighted with a few hundred quid profit over months and months. That says a lot about your life.

    What does it say exactly?
    There are countless people who would love to have the ability, knowledge and intellect to turn €150 into €1500+ on Betfair by laying horse :)
    mdwexford wrote: »
    Shows how clueless you are then if thats the kind of bet you come up with.

    I had a medium bet on Long Run fwiw.

    I am aware of the math but Im not a regular punter or anything like it, I might back 5 horses a year outside of the festival.
    I do just back a few horses I think will win and try and get the best prices I can and am aware I will lose money over my lifetime, im fine with it.

    Good for you, I hope you have continued success.

    Yes im a real shrinking violet.

    Small time chimp is a better description of your betting habits tbh.

    Do please continue posting your views though, you're making yourself look a bigger numpty with every post :)


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    #277
    mdwexford
    Registered Users Posts: 11,274 ✭✭✭✭mdwexford


    So you gamble as a hobby, not for monetary gain.
    The sole reason I place a bet is to win money, guess you're different.

    Long Run was a good bet in the 2012 Gold Cup.

    Why do you keep commenting on the math when its obvious im putting a rough number in, you have said the two horse race thing every post as well, stop repeating nonsense, maybe use more smilies.

    You have made 1350 for months of work and hours of study and have a turnover of thousands.
    Hate to break it to you but its not that impressive.

    You see I love horse racing for the sport of it, I dont need to gamble on a race to enjoy it.
    I like watching Saturday racing like people enjoy watching football or golf, I dont feel a need to bet on a race.

    You continue thinking you are a semi-pro gambler though you deluded human.


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    #278
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 23,339 ✭✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    I love horse racing too, the hours of work you refer to are quite enjoyable.
    A deluded human? Lol, its a lot more impressive than punting underpriced favs in the gold cup :)
    But I'm not trying to impress anyone, I wouldn't attempt to impress a clueless dim wit especially :)
    Nice to see you conclude your two horse race thing ess nonsense, gold star for you !


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    #279
    mdwexford
    Registered Users Posts: 11,274 ✭✭✭✭mdwexford


    Id rather spend time on something more worthwhile.
    Actually after seeing how many posts you have here in 4 years doesnt bode well for you having a life.

    Whats your hourly rate so far, bout 50c an hour, good stuff.

    On what basis was he underpriced?

    You keep on backing horses like Sychronised in races like the Gold Cup and see how profitable it will be.


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    #280
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 23,339 ✭✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    12 hours a week at the most, august to now, 1350 profit, you do the maths, its a lot more than 50c an hour.

    Sure I'm after showing my punting habits now, its there for all to see, you keep backing losers and I'll keep laying them ;)

    You already mentioned you'll lose overall, not everyone is in that club ;)

    You've gone from calling me clueless to deluded, accused me of laying horses randomly and now my post count is somehow indicative of the sort of life I have !

    You really are an angry little chap, not being able to count etc is a cross to carry admittedly. Still, help is out there dude.


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    #281
    mdwexford
    Registered Users Posts: 11,274 ✭✭✭✭mdwexford


    4.50 an hour, should try applying to McDonalds, you get 8.65 an hour there.

    Yes I'm a realist, but I have had three winning festivals from the last four.
    Maybe my lucky run will continue.

    I'd bet a lot of money you are not in profit lifetime though.


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    #282
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 23,339 ✭✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    mdwexford wrote: »
    4.50 an hour, should try applying to McDonalds, you get 8.65 an hour there.

    Yes I'm a realist, but I have had three winning festivals from the last four.
    Maybe my lucky run will continue.

    I'd bet a lot of money you are not in profit lifetime though.

    But I have a business, career etc, that's the money maker, why work in Mcds? I'd have to pay prsi and paye out of that 8.65 so it would actually be less per hour than the laying.

    3 out of the last 4 winning festivals, lucky you, never had a bet prior to that?

    Id happily wager ill make more than you punting but we can't prove that so we will just have to weigh up the evidense on the table, you've none btw ;)


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    #283
    mdwexford
    Registered Users Posts: 11,274 ✭✭✭✭mdwexford


    Don't think it would, math fail on your part there.

    I have had many bets before that yes.

    We can't prove that, I made as much in four days last march as you made in four months though so that bodes well for me.

    You failed to answer my question as to are you in profit lifetime by the way.


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    #284
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 23,339 ✭✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    Wouldn't be in lifetime profit but as the last 3 months shows I'm likely to get Thete, you on the other hand aren't , nor do you expect to despite punting to win money :pac:
    Math fail? Do explain....we have a real mug punter in you.


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    #285
    Slattsy
    Registered Users Posts: 15,775 ✭✭✭✭Slattsy


    mdwexford wrote: »
    4.50 an hour, should try applying to McDonalds, you get 8.65 an hour there.

    Yes I'm a realist, but I have had three winning festivals from the last four.
    Maybe my lucky run will continue    .

    I'd bet a lot of money you are not in profit lifetime though.

    The after timing thread is that way >>>>

    Be sure to throw up a few screen shots too. Good lad.


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    #286
    mdwexford
    Registered Users Posts: 11,274 ✭✭✭✭mdwexford


    RoverJames wrote: »
    Wouldn't be in lifetime profit but as the last 3 months shows I'm likely to get Thete, you on the other hand aren't , nor do you expect to despite punting to win money :pac:
    Math fail? Do explain....we have a real mug punter in you.

    Don't think you are.

    I'm not a punter, you are wasting your time gambling for pennies.
    Slattsy wrote: »
    The after timing thread is that way >>>>

    Be sure to throw up a few screen shots too. Good lad.

    Makes no difference to me what you think.

    Makes no difference to me if I lose a few hundred at Cheltenham every year.
    Least ill have a better return than 4.50 an hour though if I do win.


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    #287
    ft9
    Registered Users Posts: 4,408 ✭✭✭ft9


    Your arguing is getting boring MD.


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    #288
    Slattsy
    Registered Users Posts: 15,775 ✭✭✭✭Slattsy


    mdwexford wrote: »
    Makes no difference to me if I lose a few hundred at Cheltenham every year.
    Least ill have a better return than 4.50 an hour though if I do win.

    If ifs and buts & blah blah blah

    Throw up your selections sure. You've beat the bookies 3/4 Cheltenham festivals. Thats impressive. I for one would love to see your picks seeing as you're so successful.

    :):):)


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    #289
    mdwexford
    Registered Users Posts: 11,274 ✭✭✭✭mdwexford


    ft9 wrote: »
    Your arguing is getting boring MD.
    Slattsy wrote: »
    If ifs and buts & blah blah blah

    Throw up your selections sure. You've beat the bookies 3/4 Cheltenham festivals. Thats impressive. I for one would love to see your picks seeing as you're so successful.

    :):):)

    It's cute you're both jumping in for your little pal.

    Bit pointless saying who I backed now, you'll do your after timing tantrum.

    I do agree this is boring though.

    Droidman thanking all the posts is gold because he's too stupid to talk himself.


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    #290
    droidman123
    Registered Users Posts: 5,409 ✭✭✭droidman123


    mdwexford wrote: »



    It's cute you're both jumping in for your little pal.

    Bit pointless saying who I backed now, you'll do your after timing tantrum.

    I do agree this is boring though.

    Droidman thanking all the posts is gold because he's too stupid to talk himself.
    I thanked the posts because i liked them : ) why is that stupid? I said way earlier that maths is not up my street so why would i get involved in the discussion? Any chance of a lend of a tenner?


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    #291
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 23,339 ✭✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    MDwexford or DiMwexford as he appears to be is the worst kind of loser, a sore loser :)
    All of the rubbish he posts contradicts CS speel which DiM agreed with :pac:

    Two horse race DiM, two horse race ;)

    Lol at the 3 out of last 4 cheltenhams, no bets at the earlier festivals? See CS speel on bad punters making money ...


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    #292
    RichieLawlor
    Closed Accounts Posts: 3,873 ✭✭✭RichieLawlor


    RoverJames wrote: »
    MDwexford or DiMwexford as he appears to be is the worst kind of loser, a sore loser :)
    All of the rubbish he posts contradicts CS speel which DiM agreed with :pac:

    Two horse race DiM, two horse race ;)

    Lol at the 3 out of last 4 cheltenhams, no bets at the earlier festivals? See CS speel on bad punters making money ...

    You are actually a simpleton.


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    #293
    Slattsy
    Registered Users Posts: 15,775 ✭✭✭✭Slattsy


    mdwexford wrote: »
    It's cute you're both jumping in for your little pal.

    Bit pointless saying who I backed now, you'll do your after timing tantrum.

    I do agree this is boring though.

    Droidman thanking all the posts is gold because he's too stupid to talk himself.

    For the record, not one person on boards that i converse with is my "pal". I do however respect some peoples opinions over others. Thats not to say I'll differ with RJ next time, and completely agree with yours on another occasion... :)

    Pointless saying what you've back now, yes. But alas, this years festival is nearly upon us. Cant wait to see who you pick. 3/4 record is mighty fine :)

    And finally, whats with the name calling? That's a few times now you've done this. Its a internet forum. Opinions will differ from time to time. Get over it. Grow up. Get yourself a quarter pounder with cheese ;)


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    #294
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 23,339 ✭✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    RichieLawlor wrote: »
    You are actually a simpleton.

    Please do elaborate dickie :)
    Why not show how you'd turn 190 into 1500, sure if a simpleton can do it surely the likes of you can ;)


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    #295
    mark renton
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,696 ✭✭✭mark renton


    Is this a mod free forum or have they just given up on this thread?


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    #296
    mdwexford
    Registered Users Posts: 11,274 ✭✭✭✭mdwexford


    RoverJames wrote: »
    MDwexford or DiMwexford as he appears to be is the worst kind of loser, a sore loser :)
    All of the rubbish he posts contradicts CS speel which DiM agreed with :pac:

    Two horse race DiM, two horse race ;)

    Lol at the 3 out of last 4 cheltenhams, no bets at the earlier festivals? See CS speel on bad punters making money ...

    How have I contradicted anything CS has said?

    Are you a parrot, that all you got to say?

    Yes bets at all Cheltenhams since 2000.

    Is this how you've gotten over 20k posts in four years, arguing with people for days with the same repeating tripe.

    Slattsy wrote: »
    For the record, not one person on boards that i converse with is my "pal". I do however respect some peoples opinions over others. Thats not to say I'll differ with RJ next time, and completely agree with yours on another occasion... :)

    Pointless saying what you've back now, yes. But alas, this years festival is nearly upon us. Cant wait to see who you pick. 3/4 record is mighty fine :)

    And finally, whats with the name calling? That's a few times now you've done this. Its a internet forum. Opinions will differ from time to time. Get over it. Grow up. Get yourself a quarter pounder with cheese ;)

    You are right.

    I don't mind posting my selections.


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    #297
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 23,339 ✭✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    Laying underpriced selections consistently is more condusive to making an overall profit than your methods, you disagree with that despite admitting you bet only to make money and also conceding you will lose overall.

    Maintaining the 2012 was a two horse race is ludicrous.

    Apologies for referring to you as dim, you no doubt are not.


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    #298
    mdwexford
    Registered Users Posts: 11,274 ✭✭✭✭mdwexford


    I don't have methods so I'm not disagreeing with anything.
    I hope to make money with my bets obviously or I wouldn't place them.

    I'm saying I don't think you possibly can think there are as many underpriced horses every day as you do.


    Looking at the form I maintain it was, it's easy for you to contradict this now knowing the result.


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    #299
    UrbanSea
    Closed Accounts Posts: 18,335 ✭✭✭✭UrbanSea


    I'm going to lock this, it hasn't been going anywhere for about ten pages


This discussion has been closed.
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