Heavy Rain South/South East. Possible Flooding Sunday 25 November

Deep Easterly

24 hour totals up to 00z today from Ogimet. These may differ slightly to the met.ie daily reports tomorrow as they are subject to quality control.

Johnstown Castle: 32.0mm
Sherkin Island: 28.3 mm
Casement Aerodrome: 25.0mm
Dublin Apt: 22.0mm
Cork Apt: 16.0mm
Roches Pt: 13.0mm
Mace Hd: 8.0mm
Shannon Apt: 6.0mm

http://www.ogimet.com/cgi-bin/gsynres?lang=en&state=Irel&osum=no&fmt=html&ord=REV&ano=2012&mes=11&day=26&hora=00&ndays=1&Send=send

maquiladora

Deep Easterly wrote: »

24 hour totals up to 00z today from Ogimet. These may differ slightly to the met.ie daily reports tomorrow as they are subject to quality control.

Johnstown Castle: 32.0mm
Sherkin Island: 28.3 mm
Casement Aerodrome: 25.0mm
Dublin Apt: 22.0mm
Cork Apt: 16.0mm
Roches Pt: 13.0mm
Mace Hd: 8.0mm
Shannon Apt: 6.0mm

http://www.ogimet.com/cgi-bin/gsynres?lang=en&state=Irel&osum=no&fmt=html&ord=REV&ano=2012&mes=11&day=26&hora=00&ndays=1&Send=send

So thats 47mm yesterday and today for Johnstown and its still raining there.

TheMilkyPirate

Bit messy here in Wexford town alright

admiralofthefleet

baraca wrote: »

Bit messy here in Wexford town alright

any photos? its calming down a bit up the road here in Arklow

TheMilkyPirate

admiralofthefleet wrote: »

any photos? its calming down a bit up the road here in Arklow

Just the ones already posted!

Madpaddy79

Su Campu wrote: »

Yes, Dublin's was out on the precipitation alright, although only light to moderate rain, vis always > 10km, so it wouldn't be a significant problem. Ceilings turned out near or slightly better than forecast though.

The regionals have all been fairly spot on. Waterford has been behaving as forecast

Was out on the precipitation! Yes it certainly was, to the point of non existent. Funny it was on the 1100 taf but not the 1700 and hey look at the 2300!! And no light RA around here fot the last number of hours. Maybe question the Metars too! 9999, emmmhh, I don't think so. So dear met eireann, do explain?

Shamrock841

JanuarySnowstor

Where about in Cork are you (roughly)? I'm about 6nm NE of cork airport at the same height, no sleet here, just rain all night

sparrowcar

Some spot flooding around Dublin airport, still raining.

Latest f/c
(DUBLIN) METAR EIDW 260500Z 33017KT 9999 -RA FEW016 BKN020 BKN050 05/03 Q1001 NOSIG=

DOCARCH

Still a little light rain here. Total of 43.6mm here since 3pm yesterday.

Mothman

24 hour total 56mm plus 11mm the previous 24 hours

The 56mm needs to be verified with manual gauge, but even if above 50mm it is my wettest day since I commenced 09-09h (standard met day) rainfall obs in May 2001.

ninebeanrows

Local flooding around thse parts and i too question the 10km Visibility in the METARs but i'm no expert. The TAFs were certainly clueless with the rain.

Su Campu

I too admit that the DUB TAF was wrong regarding precipitation, but I can see how it happened. When I saw the TAF at 5 pm I too thought it was a little strange but, being near the edge of a pivoting rain band, I reckoned they reckoned that by the start of the forecast period (6 pm) it would be starting to retreat, just like I'm sure with Cork. Here's a screenshot I took at 16:30, just around the time the TAF was issued and 90 mins before its start time. The rain was just past DUB and was circulating around, not expected to go further north. They were wrong.



Now questioning the metars is just ridiculous. If you don't believe the metars, then let's look at the hourly synop reports, which report the minimum prevailing visibility over at least 1 half of the horizon, and are reported by a human observer by referencing several landmarks at known distances. I've thrown in Casement's too, for proof. In both cases rain was reported as light to moderate, and these qualifiers are not just "estimations", they are based on the resulting visibilities.

Dublin Airport (12-20 km)
http://www.ogimet.com/cgi-bin/gsynres?ind=03969&lang=en&decoded=yes&ndays=2&ano=2012&mes=11&day=26&hora=06


Casement (9 km at 6 pm, then 12 - 20 km for the rest of the period.

http://www.ogimet.com/cgi-bin/gsynres?ind=03967&lang=en&decoded=yes&ndays=2&ano=2012&mes=11&day=26&hora=06

Villain

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

Can't see this doing much in Ireland, the next system is already pushing it off to the east, about 5-10 mm more could fall mainly in east Ulster and northeast Leinster now ... tomorrow's system could give 10-20 mm falls in the south.

I think MT was a bit off but fair play to Met Eireann they got it spot on with their Weather Warning with over 50mm recorded in the East.

Big Daddy Cool

Delighted to say We got none of the rain yesterday because if we had there was a good chance the house would've got flooded, the field next door and our site is saturated after wednesday nights rain, i'm amazed it missed us cos 10mins away at the home place the father said they had some real heavy stuff at times, usually i'd love a bit of mad weather like that but glad it missed us yesterday .

munsterlegend

Villain wrote: »

I think MT was a bit off but fair play to Met Eireann they got it spot on with their Weather Warning with over 50mm recorded in the East.

http://www.dmi.dk/dmi/index/danmark/vejrkort.htm

Have to say I found the above link very accurate in forecasting the rainfall. Thanks to Wolfe who gave the link previously.

Villain

munsterlegend wrote: »

http://www.dmi.dk/dmi/index/danmark/vejrkort.htm

Have to say I found the above link very accurate in forecasting the rainfall. Thanks to Wolfe who gave the link previously.

Yep that's the HIRLAM model which Met Eireann use.

Mothman

Mothman wrote: »

24 hour total 56mm plus 11mm the previous 24 hours

The 56mm needs to be verified with manual gauge, but even if above 50mm it is my wettest day since I commenced 09-09h (standard met day) rainfall obs in May 2001.

More than verified. AWS under recorded a little.

24 hour total of 60.2mm. A station record (since May 2001) by a considerable margin.

Some aspects of the flooding is the 2nd worst I've seen here during that time.

Deep Easterly

Villain wrote: »

I think MT was a bit off but fair play to Met Eireann they got it spot on with their Weather Warning with over 50mm recorded in the East.

Just wondering, why did you feel the need to bring up MT's forecast? If you looked at his forecast right instead of cherry picking certain elements of it to back up some sort of point you would see that it was fairly spot on for the majority of the country. IF 50 mm was recorded in the east, then most likely in a very small area and very likely to the lee of hills. A quick look at the official reports yesterday shows that rainfall totals in the affected areas were between 13-30 mm range generally. A bit more than MT forecast for one or 2 local spots but as I said, pretty spot on in most cases.

http://www.met.ie/latest/yesterday.asp

BTW, That is not the HIRLAM model met eireann uses as you claim.

maquiladora

AA Roadwatch ‏@aaroadwatch

WATERFORD Flooding on Waterford/Dunmore East Rd into Dunmore East. The N25 Waterford/New Ross Rd impassable at New Glen

No surprise. Was raining almost constantly here yesterday/last night.

Villain

Deep Easterly wrote: »

Just wondering, why did you feel the need to bring up MT's forecast? If you looked at his forecast right instead of cherry picking certain elements of it to back up some sort of point you would see that it was fairly spot on for the majority of the country. IF 50 mm was recorded in the east, then most likely in a very small area and very likely to the lee of hills. A quick look at the official reports yesterday shows that rainfall totals in the affected areas were between 13-30 mm range generally. A bit more than MT forecast for one or 2 local spots but as I said, pretty spot on in most cases.

http://www.met.ie/latest/yesterday.asp

BTW, That is not the HIRLAM model met eireann uses as you claim.

Mothman recorded 60.2mm over 24 hours and 43mm was recorded in Wexford, I quoted MT's forecast to show that on occasion he can get it wrong and Met Eireann get it spot on. From reading threads here people are only too quick to attack Met Eireann while saying that unless MT says so it isn't going to happen.

In this event Met Eireann issued a Weather Warning of 30mm to 50mm with flooding and they pretty spot on, while MT down played it and forecast 10mm to 20mm. MT's forecast are good and he has great knowledge but it does no harm everyone now and again to remind people Met Eireann are in general excellent.

Oh and they do use the HIRLAM model when forecasting or did up to last year at least?

Su Campu

Villain wrote: »

Mothman recorded 60.2mm over 24 hours and 43mm was recorded in Wexford, I quoted MT's forecast to show that on occasion he can get it wrong and Met Eireann get it spot on. From reading threads here people are only too quick to attack Met Eireann while saying that unless MT says so it isn't going to happen.

In this event Met Eireann issued a Weather Warning of 30mm to 50mm with flooding and they pretty spot on, while MT down played it and forecast 10mm to 20mm. MT's forecast are good and he has great knowledge but it does no harm everyone now and again to remind people Met Eireann are in general excellent.

Oh and they do use the HIRLAM model when forecasting or did up to last year at least?

They use their own version of it, and now also the Harmonie. The DMI have their own version, as do the Icelandics, Norwegians, Dutch, etc.

Deep Easterly

Villain wrote: »

Mothman recorded 60.2mm over 24 hours and 43mm was recorded in Wexford, I quoted MT's forecast to show that on occasion he can get it wrong and Met Eireann get it spot on. From reading threads here people are only too quick to attack Met Eireann while saying that unless MT says so it isn't going to happen.

As I said, those high totals seem very localized but I agree, too much met bashing going on here when their forecasts don't comply to common thought. Forecasting isn't a perfect science though, No forecaster or forecasting service will ever be 100% correct in any one forecast.

Oh and they do use the HIRLAM model when forecasting or did up to last year at least?

They do use the HIRLAM, but their own version of it, which can differ quite substantially to other runs in the HIRLAM Suite. (as Su mentioned above)

Villain

Deep Easterly wrote: »

As I said, those high totals seem very localized but I agree, too much met bashing going on here when their forecasts don't comply to common thought. Forecasting isn't a perfect science though, No forecaster or forecasting service will ever be 100% correct in any one forecast.

I couldn't agree more, my post wasn't an attack on an individual just a reminder of exactly what you just said above

Deep Easterly

Villain wrote: »

I couldn't agree more, my post wasn't an attack on an individual just a reminder of exactly what you just said above

Just so long as that is the case for as the old saying goes, 'let they without sin...

and so on.

Wolfe_IRE

VIDEO: Satellite and rainfall radar showing the weather from midnight Saturday 24th November to the morning of the 26th November. Video by UKMO

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JI63MU3AEMk

Supercell

39.4mm recorded here in the 9-9 period(Met Day) yesterday/today. It was the duration of the rain that I found amazing - raining from approximately 14:00 yesterday until around 06:30 ish this morning. Mostly light to moderate with occasional cats and dogs