*Everything HPAT and Medicine 2014*

Raspberry Fileds

What back to back has done (I think) is estimate an average change in the Hpat score, compared that with the average (of the five med schools) change in points requirement, and, from that, inferred what the change in LC-obtained CAO points requirement was each year. I think that analysis is flawed: the data (from last year's Hpat thread) is incomplete and unreliable; the Hpat change isn't uniform; and the majority of successful applicants score above 550, so every point change of theirs only shows up as 0.2.

itsmawadii

Will the LC results coming out tomorrow have much of an influence on our predictions for entry points? Like the vibe I'm getting from boards is that it's all about the HPAT and your percentile etc.

sillydog10

itsmawadii wrote: »

Will the LC results coming out tomorrow have much of an influence on our predictions for entry points? Like the vibe I'm getting from boards is that it's all about the HPAT and your percentile etc.

I really doubt it, the leaving cert is based on the bell shaped curve so not muchdeviates in the general results.

itsmawadii

The amount of time I have spent on boards this summer is a joke. I'm literally waiting for any new post from anyone. I'm actually embarrassed, because it doesn't matter how much we discuss it or how much we over-analyse the situation, none of us have any idea whatsoever how the points will go in the end...not that that's going to help me sleep until Monday

sillydog10

itsmawadii wrote: »

The amount of time I have spent on boards this summer is a joke. I'm literally waiting for any new post from anyone. I'm actually embarrassed, because it doesn't matter how much we discuss it or how much we over-analyse the situation, none of us have any idea whatsoever how the points will go in the end...not that that's going to help me sleep until Monday

It was painful being on this when there was the lull in posts a few weeks ago, I didn't know what to do with myself.

itsmawadii

sillydog10 wrote: »

It was painful being on this when there was the lull in posts a few weeks ago, I didn't know what to do with myself.

Same. The disappointment of logging in and seeing zero new notifications.

back to back

itsmawadii wrote: »

Same. The disappointment of logging in and seeing zero new notifications.

however maybe that was better ,than logging in and finding a post from me ,only making matters worse
i have rechecked my figures and there are reliable ,sorry!!!!!!!

itsmawadii

Hahaha you're grand! You have a load of research done, and it's always refreshing to hear a new perspective on things I don't doubt your figures either, you're obviously putting a lot of effort in man! Don't let anyone stop you doing your thang

woopah92

Everytime I click this thread, I just hope it's someone guessing the entry points to see if I'd get in with mine.

wildmmman

Would it be possible for you to share your actual CAO points predictions - you seem to be the most well drilled person on this forum!

D3mand123

Is there any chance it'll drop by 19 points

comeclosa

wildmmman wrote: »

Would it be possible for you to share your actual CAO points predictions - you seem to be the most well drilled person on this forum!

For the past 3 years, there was a thread started up by partyatmygaff a few days before tha CAO offers, trying to predict points for Med/Pharm/Dent. It's.. as the title says "reasonably reliable".

Just wait for that to appear I'd say!

http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2057014957

Here's the link to last year's.

sillydog10

comeclosa wrote: »

For the past 3 years, there was a thread started up by partyatmygaff a few days before tha CAO offers, trying to predict points for Med/Pharm/Dent. It's.. as the title says "reasonably reliable".

Just wait for that to appear I'd say!

Last year it started the Wednesday of results so keep the eyes peeled!

egg head

Well is everyone delighted?

aiaiclor

hey guys!
I sat my LC and HPAT last year, and got 78th percentile (182) and 595 points in the leaving. When I first got my HPAT results, I put my hopes for medicine to the side, I really did not expect to get anywhere near the points. I think what I needed was 739 for Galway, I had 741 but the points were expected to go up so I really had lost hope.

The day of the offers came and lo and behold- I got offered a place in Galway Med. 2nd round offers came and I got RCSI. 3rd round offers came and I got UCC!

The reason I am posting this is not to brag- my best friend got 625 and 98th percentile, I know exactly how it feels to think that you have messed your chances up, that you are inferior to your peers. I am putting this up to let everyone know that hope should not be lost until the day of the offers!!

With the points expected to drop this year, it sounds like a lot of you guys are gonna be in for one hell of a year next year! Best of luck guys, go out and enjoy tonight

Loup1995

Hate to be another one of these people, 595 points with hope of a 605 upgrade, combined score of 729 as it stands, how slim are my chances of RCSI ??

aiaiclor

i think you have a chance of getting into Galway? no way of knowing for sure until monday. I know last year that a lot of people rejected 2nd and 3rd round offers for rcsi- hold out hope until the end if you don't get it first time!! good luck

AtomicKoala

Loup1995 wrote: »

Hate to be another one of these people, 595 points with hope of a 605 upgrade, combined score of 729 as it stands, how slim are my chances of RCSI ??

You have 729 right now? You've a fairly good chance I'd say. HPAT scores will bring points requirements down maybe 11-13 points.

sillydog10

Loup1995 wrote: »

Hate to be another one of these people, 595 points with hope of a 605 upgrade, combined score of 729 as it stands, how slim are my chances of RCSI ??

You have very good chance, sure last year you'd have had 744 with that.

woopah92

Please tell me everyone did awful in the LC so all the points drop and I get enough for UCD med? :L :L Clutching at straws here.

egg head

Loup1995 wrote: »

Hate to be another one of these people, 595 points with hope of a 605 upgrade, combined score of 729 as it stands, how slim are my chances of RCSI ??

Well done, how are u getting upgrade? :-)

itsmawadii

Given the occasion that's in it, with only 4 more days till the big reveal, I'm going to throw up my last prediction of points. Enjoy (or not, depending on your circumstances).

Trinity: 737
UCD: 736
UCC: 731
RCSI: 730
NUIG: 728

Wouldn't mind hearing anyone else's opinions! Cheers

sillydog10

itsmawadii wrote: »

Given the occasion that's in it, with only 4 more days till the big reveal, I'm going to throw up my last prediction of points. Enjoy (or not, depending on your circumstances).

Trinity: 737
UCD: 736
UCC: 731
RCSI: 730
NUIG: 728

Wouldn't mind hearing anyone else's opinions! Cheers

I personally think you'll have to drop 3 points to everything there, I just can't see a 90th percentile with 551 not getting you into UCC without a 3 point cushion, it has never been that close and I doubt it will be unless the amount of seats has changed somewhere (less seats I mean). Also, the fact that way less people sat hpat meaning that the people in the upper percentiles are less could contribute an extra point drop, coupled with the cancellation of the Malaysian contract in nuig

sillydog10

Predictions this year seem a lot harder than previous years since the change in weighting, number of seats and the amount of people who sat the exam have changed big time

itsmawadii

sillydog10 wrote: »

Predictions this year seem a lot harder than previous years since the change in weighting, number of seats and the amount of people who sat the exam have changed big time

Yep I agree. I think my previous predictions are the worst-case-scenario-highest-possible entry points. I also think we could see something like:

Trinity: 735
UCD: 734
UCC: 729
RCSI: 728
NUIG: 727

^^This is a definite possibility, and there's nothing stopping the points from dropping this low. I just happen to be an awful pessimist

woopah92

I messed up my CAO, I want UCC but RCSI is higher on the list. Oh the humanity.

sillydog10

I'm going to go out on a limb here, the numbers look ridiculous low but I think they are very realistic, since all I did was just scale back the score I'd have had last year and compare it to the minimums of the colleges, this isn't taking into account all of those other factors because there just isn't a half realistic way of getting them.
Trinity=733
Ucd=732
Ucc=727
Rcsi=726
Nuig=725

itsmawadii

sillydog10 wrote: »

I'm going to go out on a limb here, the numbers look ridiculous low but I think they are very realistic, since all I did was just scale back the score I'd have had last year and compare it to the minimums of the colleges, this isn't taking into account all of those other factors because there just isn't a half realistic way of getting them.
Trinity=733
Ucd=732
Ucc=727
Rcsi=726
Nuig=725

Where are you hoping to go yourself?

sillydog10

itsmawadii wrote: »

Where are you hoping to go yourself?

UCC, it'll suck if I don't get it since I already have my gaff sorted out (its literally minute away from Brookfield where most of the med lectures are on) since I've already done a year of college there, what about yourself?

woopah92

You guys really think they'll drop that low?