A reasonably reliable method to predict points (Version 3!)

partyatmygaff · 2013-08-14 11:24:59

It's back! :D For those of you who aren't familiar with my "Reasonably reliable method to predict points", it's a survey i've ran for the past two years which helps predict the points for Medicine, Pharmacy and Dental Science to a fairly high degree of accuracy. To understand how it works and see how accurate it was the…

14-08-2013 11:24AM

#1

partyatmygaff

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It's back!

For those of you who aren't familiar with my "Reasonably reliable method to predict points", it's a survey i've ran for the past two years which helps predict the points for Medicine, Pharmacy and Dental Science to a fairly high degree of accuracy.

To understand how it works and see how accurate it was the past two years, check out the 2011 and 2012 threads. It's well worth the few seconds it takes to fill out and share.

Pharmacy
Data/Estimation
http://goo.gl/L5F9iJ
Survey
http://goo.gl/WgMXx1

Medicine
Data/Estimation
http://goo.gl/oaAsW1
Survey
http://goo.gl/7pBEa4

Dental Science / Dentistry
Data/Estimation
http://goo.gl/rVnS5E
Survey
http://goo.gl/45XZQO

If you want to share, please share this thread and not the estimation or survey links.

Good luck everyone!

5

Comments

#2 14-08-2013 12:35PM

Hermione Granger

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Thanks so much for doing this ! Fantastic idea Are you assuming that people have put down the 5 medicine courses ?

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#3 14-08-2013 12:43PM

partyatmygaff

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Hermione Granger wrote: »

Thanks so much for doing this ! Fantastic idea Are you assuming that people have put down the 5 medicine courses ?

I am. Most people applying for Med put down all five courses so it's a reasonable assumption to make.

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#4 14-08-2013 01:05PM

kmf2012

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Thanks so much for doing this!

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#5 14-08-2013 01:08PM

LostBoy101

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Computer Science course are defintely on the rise again this year.

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#6 15-08-2013 11:50PM

Oween

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So how much entries have to be made before you make an estimation for some of the Medicine courses?

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#7 16-08-2013 01:21AM

Vito Corleone

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Do a few other courses as well, sure why not?

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#8 16-08-2013 09:05AM

CatEyed92

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Nursing?

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#9 16-08-2013 10:30AM

Kafka11

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Typical, people are making a joke of the survey now. I mean someone getting 1200 and someone getting 2......

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#10 16-08-2013 11:36AM

partyatmygaff

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Vito Corleone wrote: »

Do a few other courses as well, sure why not?

CatEyed92 wrote: »

Nursing?

I don't know enough about other courses to run a survey for them unfortunately.

Kafka11 wrote: »

Typical, people are making a joke of the survey now. I mean someone getting 1200 and someone getting 2......

Dealt with already.

Anyway, very early estimations (which should be taken with a very big pinch of salt) are starting to come in. We still haven't anywhere near enough the required numbers for an accurate estimation for any course just yet.

Pharmacy
TCD: 575
RCSI: -
UCC: -

Medicine
TCD: 748
RCSI: 742
UCD: -
UCC: -
NUIG: -

Dental Science
TCD: 595
UCC: -

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#11 17-08-2013 11:46AM

waiting4

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Think in med spreadsheet no.80 and 81 are duplicates

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#12 17-08-2013 11:58AM

partyatmygaff

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Don't think that's likely, half an hour between them, different first preference and different LC points.

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#13 17-08-2013 12:16PM

waiting4

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partyatmygaff wrote: »

Don't think that's likely, half an hour between them, different first preference and different LC points.

Oh read this on my phone maybe its wrobg but theres only a few seconds between them same scores and both UCD theyre actually 82 83

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#14 17-08-2013 02:22PM

Hermione Granger

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773 galway?

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#15 17-08-2013 02:59PM

Slow Show

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Hermione Granger wrote: »

773 galway?

I know people going for Galway with higher than that unfortunately.

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#16 17-08-2013 04:41PM

Hermione Granger

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Slow Show wrote: »

I know people going for Galway with higher than that unfortunately.

So according to the estimations there is going to be a 28 /29 point jump for galway :P

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#17 17-08-2013 07:07PM

yournerd

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Law?

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#18 17-08-2013 07:15PM

Eurovisionmad

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yournerd wrote: »

Law?

I'm gonna hazard a guess and say the reason the OP doesn't do law and other course is that there's so many different combinations like "Law and Irish" "Law International" "Law and Business" etc etc that it makes it impossible to get enough people and their results in any one law course, to make a prediction.

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#19 17-08-2013 07:42PM

Just Like Heaven

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Hermione Granger wrote: »

So according to the estimations there is going to be a 28 /29 point jump for galway :P

Down to 758 already. This is great craic. I could watch it all day.

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#20 17-08-2013 08:12PM

partyatmygaff

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Pharmacy
TCD: 570 - Plausible
RCSI: - Needs more entries but i'd say at least 5-10 points below TCD is likely
UCC: 570 Plausible

Medicine
TCD: 748 Plausible
RCSI: 744 Maybe just a bit too high?
UCD: 746 Plausible
UCC: - Still not enough entries
NUIG: 740 Plausible

Dental Science
TCD: 580 Plausible but maybe a bit too low?
UCC: - Needs more entries

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#21 17-08-2013 08:51PM

sleepyheadh

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partyatmygaff wrote: »

Medicine
TCD: 748 Plausible
RCSI: 744 Maybe just a bit too high?
UCD: 746 Plausible
UCC: - Still not enough entries
NUIG: 740 Plausible

i hope you are right

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#22 17-08-2013 08:53PM

Glitt_123

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partyatmygaff wrote: »

Dental Science
TCD: 580 Plausible but maybe a bit too low?
UCC: - Needs more entries

So would ucc be lower than 580 do you think?

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#23 17-08-2013 08:57PM

partyatmygaff

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Glitt_123 wrote: »

So would ucc be lower than 580 do you think?

580 is plausible, less likely to drop below that (although i've very few entries for UCC so far).

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#24 18-08-2013 11:13AM

Slow Show

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Hermione Granger wrote: »

So according to the estimations there is going to be a 28 /29 point jump for galway :P

Heh sorry thought you were on about someone applying with that, didn't realise we could see estimations!

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#25 19-08-2013 05:34AM

sleepyheadh

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im so sorry i ever doubted you, your prediction was amazing and spot on. still not 100% sure how you guys did it but my god, you did a great job. cheers mate!

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#26 19-08-2013 10:32AM

partyatmygaff

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Final estimations as of last night

Medicine

Pharmacy

Dental Science

Turnout a bit lower than usual this year so it wasn't as accurate as it normally is but certainly close enough given the numbers (and dead on accurate for the courses with enough people surveyed). Hope it was some help to you all the past few days.

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#27 19-08-2013 11:46AM

Kafka11

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Congratulations. Excellent estimates. Your RCSI 744 had me sweating I would be hit by random selection but, as it was 742and I got 744, I got my place. Thanks for your work.

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