San Francisco 49ers Discussion

nagirrac

Lothaar v2 wrote: »

Good decision. Bad throw.

The thrown wasn't that bad, the point is it had to be inch perfect to (a) beat Sherman, and (b) ensure it could not be intercepted. (b) is more important than (a), as there was plenty time left with 2 timeouts to run up to 4 plays.

I would argue that if Kap had 100 opportunities to make that play, the chances of a touchdown are no more than 10%. He threw the same pass three times at the end of the game last February, and made none of them, including one that sailed out of bounds (a better outcome than the pass we are discussing).

Sadly, Kap is just not a good enough touch passer at present. For this reason and this reason alone, the play should never have been an option. I know that's harsh on Kap, and he did get us into the position to win, but you have to play to your strengths, and lobbing a pass between Crabtree and Sherman was a risk that didn't need to be taken.

Looking at that still picture from Adrian, Kap could have ran to the left as he had in a previous play, as the niners had lots of bodies on that side to block for him. In fact I would argue, just as last year, if Kap ran the ball potentially up to 4 times the chance of a touchdown would go to at least 80%. He is very hard to stop when he runs a diagonal route.

Lothaar v2

Adrian - on many, many passing plays you'll find receivers who are 'more open' than the guy the QB went for. That doesn't mean the QB made the wrong decision. He needs to have a process of selecting a target that isn't dependent on checking all five eligible receivers to see who is 'most open'. One very common process involves looking for single coverage and attacking that regardless of the other routes in the pattern. Now, obviously you have to actually believe that your WR can win the battle against the CB covering him and that the QB can deliver a good pass. From Kaep's quote during the week, he clearly believed that. It's also very possible that the Niners practiced that exact play again and again in the run-up to the Conference Final, and the coaches emphasised that he should take the shot vs single coverage if they can get it. Maybe they were all wrong to back Crabtree vs Sherman but, considering they fancied his chances, Kaep made the correct decision on that play.

The pass was bad - way too far inside. But anything from one to three feet longer and it was probably a TD. Kaep couldn't know that he would throw such a bad pass when he made the decision... if he thought like that, why even play QB? He'll have thrown hundreds of thousands of fades in his life, generally correctly putting them outside the WR. When you're throwing a fade in that scenario, you should expect one of three outcomes: TD, incomplete or DPI. With single coverage and a good high-pointing WR in Crabtree, he had good reason to think an interception is pretty unlikely. In the end, Sherman got pretty lucky that the ball deflected so sweetly into his trailing teammate's hands.

Nagirrac - only a 10% chance of a TD? Nonsense. Less than a 10% chance of an interception, IMO.

It was a pretty horrible pass, though. Butchered a scoring chance.

nagirrac

Lothaar v2 wrote: »

Nagirrac - only a 10% chance of a TD? Nonsense. Less than a 10% chance of an interception, IMO.

Sorry, based on everything I have seen of Kap, and I have watched every game he has played for us, and the fact it was Crabtree versus Sherman, I would put the odds of a touchdown on that specific play at no better than 10%. Sherman is simply not going to be beaten unless the ball is inch perfect, and Kap simply does not throw perfect passes, especially under pressure. For all the strengths in his game, he is not an accurate passer and throws some horrible passes too frequently (the lucky break against Green Bay, and the interception earlier in the final quarter versus Seattle).

I agree completely the odds of an interception are much, much lower and in that respect the Niners were very unfortunate. However, what stacked the deck in favor of the Seahawks is they had another player there should the ball be tipped, and the Niners didn't. The Seahawks obviously felt Sherman could handle Crabtree, but Smith was also there and unopposed in making the interception.

The main point is it was the wrong play, plain and simple. There were plenty other less risky options, and time was not a factor. What it demonstrates is that Kap and the coaching staff learned nothing from last year's superbowl ending. Just like last February, we had excellent short yardage options in Gore, Davis, Boldin and Kap himself, no need for the glory play at that point. Play to your strengths.

Lothaar v2

nagirrac wrote: »

Sorry, based on everything I have seen of Kap, and I have watched every game he has played for us, and the fact it was Crabtree versus Sherman, I would put the odds of a touchdown on that specific play at no better than 10%.

Kaep believed he had better odds than 10%, and was right to take the shot. It wasn't the decision that was the issue, it was the throw. As an NFL QB, he's not going to be like: 'I better not throw to my very good WR in single coverage because I'm not very accurate'. It doesn't take an 'inch-perfect' pass to get a TD there. There was a window of a few feet in which that pass could've been completed, as long as it was a bit deeper and further outside. If he throws that pass 100 times, it's either a TD, incomplete or DPI more than 90% of the time. And if it's DPI, that's a first down on the 1. Correct decision by Kaep, followed by a bad throw and compounded by the deflection.

I'm not defending Kaepernick here. Just clarifying the issue. It wasn't a stupid or bad decision, it was a bad pass. He's capable of making that throw but he needs to develop more consistency.

nagirrac

Lothaar v2 wrote: »

Kaep believed he had better odds than 10%, and was right to take the shot.

I'm not defending Kaepernick here. Just clarifying the issue. It wasn't a stupid or bad decision, it was a bad pass. He's capable of making that throw but he needs to develop more consistency.

Of course he did, his confidence would have been sky high on that last drive, but nonetheless his decision to take the shot cost us the game. It was a bad decision because top quarterbacks take what's available to them and don't force a play unless they have to. Lobbing the ball anywhere near Sherman at that point was really high risk, and unnecessary. You won't see Manning go in his direction today, unless he absolutely has to in the final play of the game. The stark truth of course is that Manning is far more likely to complete that pass than Kap (at least Kap at present), but even he would not take that risk unless he absolutely had to.

Looking back on the season the Niner's one big weakness was failure to convert from inside the red zone. We got away with it against Green Bay and Carolina, but it cost us in the Seattle game. I'm not blaming Kap alone for this, as with the offensive weapons available to him (including himself) imo it mainly comes down to poor play calling.

Anyway. let's agree to disagree, it's spilt milk at this stage. Just frustrating about to watch a SB where your team should be there.

adrian522

Lothaar v2 wrote: »

Adrian - on many, many passing plays you'll find receivers who are 'more open' than the guy the QB went for. That doesn't mean the QB made the wrong decision. He needs to have a process of selecting a target that isn't dependent on checking all five eligible receivers to see who is 'most open'. One very common process involves looking for single coverage and attacking that regardless of the other routes in the pattern. Now, obviously you have to actually believe that your WR can win the battle against the CB covering him and that the QB can deliver a good pass. From Kaep's quote during the week, he clearly believed that. It's also very possible that the Niners practiced that exact play again and again in the run-up to the Conference Final, and the coaches emphasised that he should take the shot vs single coverage if they can get it. Maybe they were all wrong to back Crabtree vs Sherman but, considering they fancied his chances, Kaep made the correct decision on that play.

I don't disagree with you, however it didn't look to my untrained eye like Kap looked to his left at all in the play.

I've no issue with going after Crabtree against single coverage, however on that play, Crabtree can't get Sherman to bite on his stutter step and Sherman is at least level with Crabtree through the whole play, so while he had single coverage I'd prefer him to check it down if there is no separation.

We weren't yet in desperation mode so there was time.

I understand that a lot of the reasons for not going away from Alex is because he was unwilling to take shots like that and if you get too conservative you won't win a lot of those games, I just felt like that throw was never really open, but with Kap you must take the good with the bad and at some point he will be one of the elite QB's in the league, just that he's not there yet.

adrian522

Well Free Agency is here and the 49ers have been busy....

Niners Nation has a recap of day 1, essentially:

1. K Phil Dawson signing a 2-year deal
2. S Antoine Bethea signing 4-year deal
3. QB Blaine Gabbert acquired for 6th round pick
4. Carlos Rogers released, Demarcus Dobbs/Michael Wilhoite tendered
5. Eric Wright signs 1-year deal
6. Jonathan Martin acquired for conditional 2015 7th round pick

What are your thoughts on these?

My only slight issue is the money given to Bethea when we were only offering Whitner $4m per year(allegedly).

Other than that a good few low risk/smart moves.

Still looking for a CB in the first round of the draft or maybe a WR if one of the fancied guys drops to the middle of the first round.

randomCluster

Happy enough. Nothing like the Broncos who've gone all in, but pragmatic and decisive.
It's good to see Dawson "get paid" as that, and the Martin signing indicate JH has a big say. .
The Gabbert signing is a strange one. Generally he's viewed as a poor player ("Blame Gabbert"). I assume it's costing a decent bit of change for a back-up. Maybe he'll keep Aldon Smith on the straight-and-narrow.
Bethea is by all accounts solid, durable, a good fit and should bring a few of the younger players along. A steady pro.
Some questions about his pass coverage, but he was playing for the colts.

adrian522

Glad we are not doing what the broncos are doing. They are storing up cap trouble.

Interestingly gabbert is scheduled to earn twice what kaepernick will get next season.

madalig12

Sign Revis on a one year deal! Then we will see what Harvins made of.

adrian522

madalig12 wrote: »

Sign Revis on a one year deal! Then we will see what Harvins made of.

No no no. No throwing money at has been nobody's. That's more of a raiders thing.

nerd69

adrian522 wrote: »

No no no. No throwing money at has been nobody's. That's more of a raiders thing.

Bit early to be calling revis a has been

adrian522

nerd69 wrote: »

Bit early to be calling revis a has been

Well I think his best days are in the rear view mirror and he's not worth the money he got from tampa or new England.

Pretty happy Sf kept their cap space for use elsewhere.

I remember asmougha getting a big money deal from philly late in his career too and didn't work out too well.

Utopia Parkway

adrian522 wrote: »

Well I think his best days are in the rear view mirror and he's not worth the money he got from tampa or new England.

12M is very reasonable for someone who is very possibly still the best corner back in the NFL. A guy who is an elite level talent in his position and someone with the ability to change an entire defence because of his ability to take away one side of the field.

nerd69

adrian522 wrote: »

Well I think his best days are in the rear view mirror and he's not worth the money he got from tampa or new England.

Pretty happy Sf kept their cap space for use elsewhere.

I remember asmougha getting a big money deal from philly late in his career too and didn't work out too well.

you could say the same for any position namdi was a disaster i know because i had to watch every game of that season but hes one example what about darren sharper to the saints at 33 he was key to them winning a superbowl.

revis is only 28 and had a good year last year and now hes a year off of his injury he should be better again. additionally he does not have to play to the level he did before if he plays at talib level and does not get injured his worth a big one year pay off.

adrian522

I think revis has seen his best days and the 49ers are better conserving cap space for the guys that need extensions.

It would have been a luxury signing and I'm glad he's not sf bound.

adrian522

Well this has really been the off season from hell. Really all you want between Free agency and the draft is no news whatsoever.

The 49ers have had stories about Jed York trying to "trade" away Jim Harbaugh.

Chris Culliver involved in a hit and run, followed up by threatening another driver with brass knuckles.

Colin Kaepernick and Patton involved in whatever happened in Ricardo Lockette's apartment

Aldon Smith arrested, possibly while drunk for a "false bomb report" or whatever. This after going into rehab last season and already facing charges of DUI and gun possession.

randomCluster

adrian522 wrote: »

Well this has really been the off season from hell. Really all you want between Free agency and the draft is no news whatsoever.

The 49ers have had stories about Jed York trying to "trade" away Jim Harbaugh.

Chris Culliver involved in a hit and run, followed up by threatening another driver with brass knuckles.

Colin Kaepernick and Patton involved in whatever happened in Ricardo Lockette's apartment

Aldon Smith arrested, possibly while drunk for a "false bomb report" or whatever. This after going into rehab last season and already facing charges of DUI and gun possession.

I'm not too worried, it's the Nfl and a player without some sort of rap sheet is not uncommon. The boys are just earning their stripes.

I'm not buying the Aldon Smith arrest. The tsa have a notorious reputation for being head wreckers. Poor ould Aldon just lost the rag and got landed with some trumped up charge for being disrespectful. I don't blame him, airports are horrible places. I'm worried about the booze slant on the story but I reckon that's the police trying to smear him.

The Kap situation sounds like a jilted ex who decided to get her own back because Kap didn't sleep with her.

Culliver is just plain dumb.

Jim Harbaugh would fight with his own shadow.

randomCluster

adrian522 wrote: »

Well this has really been the off season from hell. Really all you want between Free agency and the draft is no news whatsoever.

The 49ers have had stories about Jed York trying to "trade" away Jim Harbaugh.

Chris Culliver involved in a hit and run, followed up by threatening another driver with brass knuckles.

Colin Kaepernick and Patton involved in whatever happened in Ricardo Lockette's apartment

Aldon Smith arrested, possibly while drunk for a "false bomb report" or whatever. This after going into rehab last season and already facing charges of DUI and gun possession.

I'm not too worried, it's the Nfl and a player without some sort of rap sheet is not uncommon. The boys are just earning their stripes.

I'm not buying the Aldon Smith arrest. The tsa have a notorious reputation for being head wreckers. Poor ould Aldon just lost the rag and got landed with some trumped up charge for being disrespectful. I don't blame him, airports are horrible places. I'm worried about the booze slant on the story but I reckon that's the police trying to smear him.

The Kap situation sounds like a jilted ex who decided to get her own back because Kap didn't sleep with her.

Culliver is just plain dumb.

Jim Harbaugh would fight with his own shadow.

randomCluster

Draft time is almost upon us.
What player would you most like to see us go for?
Do we go with a CB or WR in the first round?
Trade up, down or stay put?
Predictions?

adrian522

I think trade up but only a few spots, similar to last year, perhaps for someone like Kyle Fuller.

A lot of talk about OBJ but I think he would be gone by then. If he falls past 15 or so then maybe make a move but CB is the greater need I think.

Also I think a QB will be selected in the later rounds, would love to see someone like Boyd or Thomas coming to SF.

After that I think some depth on the D-line and at ILB. or possibly a pass rushing OLB to light a fire under Aldon Smith.

Possibly some depth for the interior O-line in the later rounds. That ought to do it.

There will be a lot of trading anyway, that is for sure.

randomCluster

Yeah, a moa move into the high teens. The Jets are after a wr and perhaps the Lions. The 9ers and OBJ is drumming up a lot of noise. A deep threat wouldn't go astray - even when we had Randy Moss we moved the ball better. I know we're desperately short at CB but a play maker in the first round is hard to resist. Good read here: http://grantland.com/features/nfl-draft-2014-best-picks-every-team/

adrian522

I don't know, I think there are plenty of receivers in the second round for us, particularly if we were to trade up a little.

I could also see us offloading LMJ in a trade up though can't see us getting much for him to be honest.

adrian522

Well that was underwhelming. Surely Ward would have been there at 56. Or at the very least we could have traded back into the top of the second round.

randomCluster

adrian522 wrote: »

Well that was underwhelming. Surely Ward would have been there at 56. Or at the very least we could have traded back into the top of the second round.

Agreed, unspectacular for a first round pick. I think Seattle beat them to trading back. Maybe 9ers thought OBJ wouldn't go so early. Also they might have felt there was a drop off in talent at safety after Ward. Whereas CB and WR are deep. At least he's a good fit. Would have preferred a move up to get Dennard at 24.

Just read about trade for Stevie Johnson. Gotta be pleased with that. He's posted 3 1k yrds seasons, disrupted with injury last year. Not sure how it affects the wage cap though.

adrian522

Delighted with Stevie J, that's a great move, costs us a 3rd rounder (possibly a 4th but more likely a 3rd).

I feel a little better about our pick now since reading a bit more about Ward.

He should be able to play Nikel as he is very good in coverage and will eventually take over from Bethea, most of what I've read on him has been good anyway.

Looking forward to tonight.

madalig12

Got to be a cert we go CB next.

adrian522

Well, the 2014 draft is done and dusted, most of the analysts seem to be giving an A grade or an A-

Either way the talk is of us having had a good draft.

The picks made were as follows:

1(30). Jimmie Ward, defensive back, Northern Illinois
2(57). Carlos Hyde, running back, Ohio State
3(70). Marcus Martin, center, Southern California
3(77). Chris Borland, inside linebacker, Wisconsin
3(100). Brandon Thomas, offensive lineman, Clemson
4(106). Bruce Ellington, wide receiver, South Carolina
4(129). Dontae Johnson, cornerback, North Carolina State
5(150). Aaron Lynch, defensive end/outside linebacker, South Florida
5(170). Keith Reaser, cornerback, Florida Atlantic
6(180). Kenneth Acker, cornerback, Southern Methodist
7(243). Kaleb Ramsey, defensive end, Boston College
7(245). Trey Millard, fullback, Oklahoma

We also made some trades:

1. Traded No. 56 and No. 242 to Denver Broncos for No. 63, No. 171, 2015 4th round pick
2. Traded No. 63 No. 171 to Miami Dolphins for No. 57
3. Traded No 61 to Jacksonville Jaguars for No. 70, No. 150
4. Traded No. 94 to Cleveland Browns for No. 106, No. 180

My own thoughts are as follows:

The players we picked on Thursday on friday make a lot of sense, Ward will contribute and most people view this as a solid pick.

Hyde was a bit puzzling at the time, especially given Gore will still be on the team next season and Lattimore is coming off his injury, but Gore is likely gone after this season and Lattimore may never be the same player so I understand the pick.

Marcus Martin is a bit of a steal there, Borland fills some depth and then Thomas is an injury redshirt.

Day 3 I like the Ellington pick but don't know much about the other.

if I was to be a little critical I would say we waited too long before grabbing a CB or WR.

For example we traded away the number 61 pick and the number 94 picks and we didn't really benefit from those trades. We could have had Allen Robinson and Bashaud Breeland with those 2 picks. I'd rather have addtional 2nd or 3rd round players than extra picks on day 3, we only added 1 pick for next season and probably picked too man players as it was. We should have packaged picks to move up more I think.

Overall happy enough but not ecstatic.

JaMarcusHustle

You guys have made a gem of an UFA pick up in Morgan Breslin. My favourite USC player the past couple of years despite the injury. Really confident he'll do well for you and I'll be rooting for the 49ers because of him.

adrian522

JaMarcusHustle wrote: »

You guys have made a gem of an UFA pick up in Morgan Breslin. My favourite USC player the past couple of years despite the injury. Really confident he'll do well for you and I'll be rooting for the 49ers because of him.

Interesting, I presume he will play OLB in the NFL?

If so i'd say he will have a battle to get onto the roster.

Currently at OLB we have:

Aldon Smilth
Ahmad Brooks
Corey Lemonier
Aaron Lynch
Dan Skuta
Morgan Breslin

I'm not sure we would carry 6 on the 53 man roster but if Smith gets a long suspension then who knows?

I'll keep an eye on him for sure.