Gay Marriage/Marriage Equality/End of World?

Smiley92a

Not a NSA agent wrote: »

Then theres the cake thing, there is no way a man went into a bakery to order a cake. No, it was all part of his plot, they searched for places ran by Christians and make orders, waiting for one of them to be turned down.

They must have had a warehouse full of pro-SSM cakes by the time they were finished!

Cabaal

Smiley92a wrote: »

They must have had a warehouse full of pro-SSM cakes by the time they were finished!

Its like the cake scam from 30 rock

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p4MERiu9_Ck

FRAAAAAAAJJJJEEERRRRRRR!!!!!!!!!!!

IT-Guy

aloyisious wrote: »

On facebook from, apparently, Mothers and Fathers Matter (with the attached photo below)..... SURROGACY is a major issue for Friday's vote. Gay men need to use surrogacy or adoption to have a child BUT where are the child's rights in all of this? Put Children First. VOTE NO.

Came up on my FB feed, best rebuttal to all this surrogacy ****e yet:

The Black Oil

I have received a copy of the gay agenda.

• All BBC light entertainment show hosts will be from Cork
• GAA teams will have to adopt a Donal Óg Cusack clone
• Banks will be forced to issue gay mortgages
• Coffee shops will have to add gay to tall or grande
• Rainbows in the clouds will take up twice their current space and will be exempt from planning permission laws
• From 2016, Eircom will have to issue pro-gay phone directories
• New learner drivers will have to add a 'how gay is my driving?' sticker in addition to their L plates
• Householders will have to install slippery slopes in their place residence
• The Oireachtas will replace prayers with the Flintstones motto We'll have a gay old time

Bannasidhe

Behold.... the future....

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=upBOOlageUY

jill_valentine

Bannasidhe wrote: »

As the film Bound showed... that's crap.

Gigli, you don't know ****.

Bannasidhe

jill_valentine wrote: »

Gigli, you don't know ****.

jill_valentine

Bannasidhe wrote: »

It's... a quote from Bound, sort of.

BlaasForRafa

When the referendum passes we should order a celebratory cake for Iona from Ashers bakery :pac:

Bristolscale7

I have been following the odds on this on paddypower. Was 5/1 in favor of yes as of last night. I think they stopped taking bets this morning.

aloyisious

Bannasidhe wrote: »

Behold.... the future....

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=upBOOlageUY

NSFW. I opened the video on a new page by clicking it's title and a short Ad video starring a certain gay gent from a small group in support of a No Vote popped up first.

Bristolscale7

Bristolscale7 wrote: »

I have been following the odds on this on paddypower. Was 5/1 in favor of yes as of last night. I think they stopped taking bets this morning.

1/8 to be a Yes (this implies that Paddy Power believe there's a ~ 88% chance that the result will be Yes).

http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/irish-politics/gay-marriage-referendum-result

Peregrinus

Deleted User wrote: »

1/8 to be a Yes (this implies that Paddy Power believe there's a ~ 88% chance that the result will be Yes).

No, it doesn't imply anything about what Paddy Power thinks. It tells us about the amounts of money wagered on each side with Paddy Power by gamblers.

Peregrinus

Peregrinus wrote: »

No, it doesn't imply anything about what Paddy Power thinks. It tells us about the amounts of money wagered on each side with Paddy Power by gamblers.

No. It doesn't.

Pari mutuel bookmaking is no longer used in the industry. Game Theory Optimal book keeping is the order of the day.

I say this from a position within the industry btw.

Vivisectus

I love that our bookmakers are considered a more reliable authority on the national mood that the polls.

Bannasidhe

jill_valentine wrote: »

It's... a quote from Bound, sort of.

AH! Sorry... I'm so brain addled right now between gaybees and posters and more gaybees and urge to slap people that I just went to the default Nooooo...It's you know nothing Jon snow ffs place but I knew there was more to it.

I think my brain has died.

Bannasidhe

aloyisious wrote: »

NSFW. I opened the video on a new page by clicking it's title and a short Ad video starring a certain gay gent from a small group in support of a No Vote popped up first.

Oh - that gentleman tried to take me from behind, as it were, by popping up after the main feature but I said not in that jacket matey!

Turtwig

[Deleted User] wrote: »

No. It doesn't.

Pari mutuel bookmaking is no longer used in the industry. Game Theory Optimal book keeping is the order of the day.

I say this from a position within the industry btw.

I'm not sure about that. Bookmaking is a business. Odds may initially be calculated to accurate realms. However, the consumer market is going to play a role in the public offer made. Suppose for example a sports team is the best in the world and they're playing against lowly minnows. Everyone expects a trashing. The minnows "real" odds are about 50/1. However, if you inflate that to €500/1 you'll likely get a lot more punters and maybe even higher quantities of bets.

It would strike me as odd to keep the public offers rational because gambling quite frankly is rarely governed by rational behavior. When it comes to all things finance we are intuitively at a loss. Gambling more so than others.

Not the thread for it, but Game Theory suggests and recommends that you should never offer a bad price (ie a price that doesn't accurately reflect the chance of an event occurring).

As I've said. Pari Mutuel betting is gone.

Turtwig

Interesting, my query is why are you guys applying game theory? That tends to assume rational players. Gamblers are rarely if ever rational players. (Or is that accommodated for?)

PopePalpatine

I try my best to be rational when gambling, it's why I never bet on Arsenal. :pac:

robindch

The catholic Bishop of Derry suggests there's a chance that some people might vote no for "bigoted, nasty, bullying" reasons.

Goes on to explain that they'll have to explain themselves to their deity.

http://www.thejournal.ie/bishop-vote-no-bigoted-reasons-2112302-May2015/

Peregrinus

Turtwig wrote: »

Interesting, my query is why are you guys applying game theory? That tends to assume rational players. Gamblers are rarely if ever rational players. (Or is that accommodated for?)

Interesting. Because it is in fact the case that the bookies' odds are, on the whole, a better predictor of election outcomes than the opinion polls.

Which might be evidence suggesting that rational methods of understanding and explaining the world aren't always the most reliable techniques.

When reason and evidence conflict, what is the rational empiricist to do?

oldrnwisr

Peregrinus wrote: »

Interesting. Because it is in fact the case that the bookies' odds are, on the whole, a better predictor of election outcomes than the opinion polls.

Which might be evidence suggesting that rational methods of understanding and explaining the world aren't always the most reliable techniques.

When reason and evidence conflict, what is the rational empiricist to do?

Well I think Richard Feynman said it best:

"If it disagrees with experiment, it’s wrong. In that simple statement is the key to science. It doesn’t make any difference how beautiful your guess is, it doesn’t matter how smart you are who made the guess, or what his name is… If it disagrees with experiment, it’s wrong. That’s all there is to it."

Nodin

Bruce Arnold..former respected journo..now semi-retired crank.

"Former president Mary McAleese was wrong to call for families across Ireland to vote Yes in the same-sex marriage referendum, according to journalist Bruce Arnold. Speaking on RTÉ radio [Morning Ireland], Mr Arnold said as an “officer of the State” the former president had broken convention by taking part in the same-sex marriage debate and had abandoned her duties.”
…
“According to Mr Arnold, when he moved to Ireland [sixty years ago] homosexuality was not penalised or illegal and “homosexuals lived a reasonably open and happy life”.
…
“’Homosexuality was never a crime in Ireland. Homosexual acts were and through David Norris’ work with Mary Robinson in Europe the edict was created that made the government here reluctantly, and with disagreement, decriminalise homosexual acts.’”
http://www.broadsheet.ie/2015/05/20/homosexuality-was-never-a-crime-in-ireland/

robindch

Bruce Arnold wrote:

Homosexuality was never a crime in Ireland.

Seems Mr Arnold wishes us to be thankful that thoughtcrime wasn't on the statute book.

Going Strong

Nodin wrote: »

Bruce Arnold..former respected journo..now semi-retired crank.

…
“According to Mr Arnold, when he moved to Ireland [sixty years ago] homosexuality was not penalised or illegal and “homosexuals lived a reasonably open and happy life”.
…

And yet thirty years ago, the brother of a friend of mine and his boyfriend were the victims of gay-bashing. "That's what you get for being queer" was the Gardai's response at the time. I'm sure Bruce wouldn't like us to be going back to *that* particular golden age now would he?

robindch

Going Strong wrote: »

I'm sure Bruce wouldn't like us to be going back to *that* particular golden age now would he?

I haven't seen him, and generally very few people on the no-side, say they don't want to.

Nodin

Going Strong wrote: »

And yet thirty years ago, the brother of a friend of mine and his boyfriend were the victims of gay-bashing. "That's what you get for being queer" was the Gardai's response at the time. I'm sure Bruce wouldn't like us to be going back to *that* particular golden age now would he?

But it was a golden age, apparently and anything else is a bit of a fib.....

"Mr Arnold said since his arrival in Ireland sixty years ago, a “penalised, unhappy, disfavoured, disadvantaged, interpretation of homosexual couples” had developed, “largely by invention”.
http://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/mcaleese-wrong-to-call-for-yes-vote-says-journalist-1.2219334

wp_rathead

I believe Louise Doris was on Radio One today with Sean O'Rourke.
People may know her from her twitter handle @marialaoise
Not the nicest individual

https://twitter.com/Dodslaw/status/600599649150435328