Olympics Betting Thread.

BKC

With the Olympics starting this weekend, I thought it would be a good time to start sharing some tips and to keep this thread going throughout the games.

All I know so far is that I will be backing Brazil to win the football, and Usain Bolt to win the 100M @1.72.

DB74

Katie Taylor 4/11

Novak Djokovic 2/1 (pre-Nadal drop-out)

Mens Football: Switzerland 10/1 each-way

Probably do Bolt at some stage as well

KevIRL

Posted this in the Sports forum, which has a few huge olympic fanatics, and is very informative

Been trawling through the Sunday Times Olympic guide and the lesser known sports to see if I can spot some value. All prices are PP, been leaving out any very short priced mentions

This is purely based on the Sunday Times opinions as I would be completely clueless on all these. If some of the more knowledgeable posters here fancy checking out the prices on all the various events then the link is http://www.paddypower.com/bet/2012-Olympics (click the 'view all events dropdown), most stuff is priced up

Wrestling - Mens Freestyle 120Kg
Artur Taymazov (Uzbekistan) 5/1, won silver in 2000, and gold in 2004 and 2008, has also won 3 Asian games titles and 2 Asian Championships

Shooting - Mens 10m Air Rifle
Nicolo Campriani (Italy) 9/4. Was the first competitor from any sport to qualify for the London games when he won the worlds 2 years ago. Also mentioned Peter Sidi (Hungary) 11/1.

Taekwondo - Womens 67Kg
Nur Tatar (Turkey) 6/1 European youth champion in 2008 and 2010 also won silver at seniot level in European championship 2010

Archery - Womens Individual
Koreans have won gold at every olympics since 1984, apart from in Beijing where it went to a Chinese lady. So take your pick of BB Ki 4/1, SJ Lee 13/2, H Choi 10/1 (all Korea)

Archery - Mens Individual
Im Dong-Hyun (Korea) 7/2 broke 2 world records in October.

Volleyball - Mens
Russia 12/5. Bronze in Beijing and a series of top finishes in tournaments since, won the World Cup last year

Modern Pentathlon - Mens
Andrey Moiseyev (Russia) 13/8. Going for a 3rd succesive olympic gold medal, 2nd in last years world championship

Handball - Mens
France 2/1. Champions in Beijing and have not finished outside top four in 9 of the last 10 world championships

Sailing - Womens RS:X
Zofia Noceti-Klepackca (Poland) 3/1. 2nd in the last 2 world championships but has won twice in Sail for Gold regettas in Weymouth which is the olympic course

Sailing - Womens Laser Radial
Gintarre Scheidt (Lithuania) 4/1. Current world champion

okidoki987

A stat for those thinking of lumping into Brazil at 6/4 to win the Mens football.
Brazil have NEVER won the Olympic Mens Soccer Gold medal!
They did destroy GB last week but I'm thinking Spain 5/2 might be better value?

Racing Post supplement out on Wednesday.

BKC

okidoki987 wrote: »

A stat for those thinking of lumping into Brazil at 6/4 to win the Mens football.
Brazil have NEVER won the Olympic Mens Soccer Gold medal!
They did destroy GB last week but I'm thinking Spain 5/2 might be better value?

Racing Post supplement out on Wednesday.

I really don't think that matters at all. Different players, different team. No effect.

Hoki

There is an Olympic betting supplement in tomorrows racing post for anyone thats interested, il be having a few bets tomorrow evening.

Samich

Usain Bolt @1.72 is great. I know he's been beaten recently but he'll surely sort that out!

Samich

Disappointed I can't do a Mo Farah double for the 5k and 10k.

5k he's @2.50
10k he's @2.37

the groutch

O'Leary & Burrows (Ireland) in the sailing Star Class.

they've already won an event this year on the Olympic course, and were 4th in the World Championships in Perth.

PP have cut them from 25/1 into 7/1, but still 18/1 with Bet365 (ew 1/4 1,2,3)

Cosmo Kramer

A few Irish bets that might provide a run for your money...

To win a medal (Paddy Power):

O'Leary/Burrows (Star Class Sailing) 5/1
Paddy Barnes (Light-Flyweight Boxing) 11/4
Andrzej Jezierski (C1 Sprint Canoe) 25/1

O'Leary/Burrows in particular look great value there.

kincsem

Mo Farah looks a poor bet in the 5000 metres.
He is 29 years old. He is British and overbet.
Ten runners beat his season best time in Paris this month, the winner more than ten seconds faster than Farah's 2012 best.

5000 metres times 2012 here
http://www.iaaf.org/statistics/toplists/inout=o/age=n/season=2012/sex=M/all=n/legal=A/disc=5000/detail.html

My cash is on Dejen Gebremeskel at 3.65 (2.65 to 1)

kincsem

Paris

Oslo

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_pyPmwcRdvs

premierstone

kincsem wrote: »

Mo Farah looks a poor bet in the 5000 metres.
He is 29 years old. He is British and overbet.
Ten runners beat his season best time in Paris this month, the winner more than ten seconds faster than Farah's 2012 best.

5000 metres times 2012 here
http://www.iaaf.org/statistics/toplists/inout=o/age=n/season=2012/sex=M/all=n/legal=A/disc=5000/detail.html

My cash is on Dejen Gebremeskel at 3.65 (2.65 to 1)

Fastest times in middle distant running are practically irrelevant, championship races with no pace makers are completely different to Golden League/Grand Prix etc. races, it will be a far more tactical affair.

KevIRL

the groutch wrote: »

O'Leary & Burrows (Ireland) in the sailing Star Class.

they've already won an event this year on the Olympic course, and were 4th in the World Championships in Perth.

PP have cut them from 25/1 into 7/1, but still 18/1 with Bet365 (ew 1/4 1,2,3)

PP have them at 7/1 in the event betting to win, however in their 'Irish Medals Specials' market O Leary and Burrows are 7/1 to win a medal

http://www.paddypower.com/bet/olympics/olympics-medal-special?ev_oc_grp_ids=749428

Nuri Sahin

3 bets atm -

USA/Spain Final in the basketball @ 5/6
Usain Bolt 5/6
Uruguay E/W in the football @ 7/1

KevIRL

lol

Cosmo Kramer

KevIRL wrote: »

lol

Only fair really. either that or pay out on Redgrave - he was the closest of the betting options.

Tiernster7

Hopefully this is the right thread to mention this on carried out a bit of analysis on olympic football Switzerland and Senegal are my value bets to reach semi's

http://tiernotimes.blogspot.ie/2012/07/football-olympic-mens.html
What are peoples thoughts on this

KevIRL

Italy were the surprise winners of the mens teams archery today. The trio are still available at big prices for the individual event on PP though

Nespoli 66/1
Frangilli 150/1
Galiazzo 200/1

Juwwi

KevIRL wrote: »

Italy were the surprise winners of the mens teams archery today. The trio are still available at big prices for the individual event on PP though

Nespoli 66/1
Frangilli 150/1
Galiazzo 200/1

This guy http://www.london2012.com/athlete/hrachov-dmytro-1039109/

is as low as 8/1 stan james ...10/1 bet365 ....12/1 ladbrokes for the individual event.

but he's 100/1 with other bookies .
l just done him each way 90/1 with PP


EDIT Maybe its not as good as it first looked he has been pushed out in the odds rather than shortening.
Those 3 bookies mentioned must'nt of pushed him out yet.
He must of been bad in the team event or something.
heres oddschecker http://www.oddschecker.com/olympics/archery/mens/individual/winner/bet-history/dmytro-hrachov

Samich

robbie1977 wrote: »

This guy http://www.london2012.com/athlete/hrachov-dmytro-1039109/

is as low as 8/1 stan james ...10/1 bet365 ....12/1 ladbrokes for the individual event.

but he's 100/1 with other bookies .
l just done him each way 90/1 with PP

That's excellent. How's he performed so far, if he has?

Juwwi

Samich wrote: »

That's excellent. How's he performed so far, if he has?

Not sure Samich but I've edited other post it suddenly does'nt look as good as it first did.

Samich

robbie1977 wrote: »

Not sure Samich but I've edited other post it suddenly does'nt look as good as it first did.

It's weird.

Galiazzo the Italian was 35/1 yesterday on betfair, gone into 10/1 now.
Paddypower had him at 22/1 yesterday, at 200/1 now.

mailburner

-Ade- wrote: »

3 bets atm -


Usain Bolt 5/6

this caught my eye with ladbrokes

seems a very big price but I haven't been following the sprints all year
and im not familiar with the guy whos 2nd favourite

anyone think this is worth lumping on?

BKC

Anyone see any opportunity for Ireland to win more than 1 gold medal? Obviously Katie Taylor is our best hope for gold, but any idea where we could win another one? Perhaps in boxing somewhere.

Ireland over 1.5 gold medals @3.50 with Paddy Power.

Samich

BKC wrote: »

Anyone see any opportunity for Ireland to win more than 1 gold medal? Obviously Katie Taylor is our best hope for gold, but any idea where we could win another one? Perhaps in boxing somewhere.

Ireland over 1.5 gold medals @3.50 with Paddy Power.

Hmmm we're usually decent at showjumping? Haven't a clue what our odds are like though.

ecoli

Few tips:

Frederica Pellegrini (Womens 400m Freestyle) @ 8/1 (Tonight)
Current 2 time World Champion. She was 3rd in her heat this morning but is known for taking it handy in heats and is the only woman ever under 4 minutes.

5000m (athletics)

Agree with previous poster. Lay for everything its worth. He has not ran well this season. He has been working on his finishing speed this year and actually ran a slower closing lap in the Europeans (despite winning) than he closed in the 10,000m last year in World Championships. He won in London DL in a very slow time (13.06) and just doesnt look the same dominant athlete he was last year. His focus will firmly be on beating Bekele in the 10,000m

10,000m
Bekele to win @ 3/1 and if you are feeling adventurous Galen Rupp to medal. Bekele has had sluggish start to the year but has improved with each race over the 5000m developing his finishing speed in a race. He ran the fastest time in the world last year 26.43 (3 seconds better than Farah's best) and 27.02 in his only race this year (3rd fastest time of the year)
Rupp is the fastest ever white man. He has developed his tactics to suit the African style of racing and managed to outkick one of the best tacticians ever in Bernard Lagat in the 5000m US Trials. Tipping him to sneak a bronze or maybe even sneak it against training partner Mo Farah

efb

BKC wrote: »

Anyone see any opportunity for Ireland to win more than 1 gold medal? Obviously Katie Taylor is our best hope for gold, but any idea where we could win another one? Perhaps in boxing somewhere.

Ireland over 1.5 gold medals @3.50 with Paddy Power.

We won't win more than 1 gold. Doing well if we with that.

2 medals Id say

ecoli

BKC wrote: »

Anyone see any opportunity for Ireland to win more than 1 gold medal? Obviously Katie Taylor is our best hope for gold, but any idea where we could win another one? Perhaps in boxing somewhere.

Ireland over 1.5 gold medals @3.50 with Paddy Power.

Great bet IMO the boxing lads have been talking of 2-3 as a genuine medal haul in the Boxing alone. Couple that with Rheinisch in the Canoeing today who placed 4th In Beijing its definitedly worth a punt despite Taylors tough draw

ecoli

mailburner wrote: »

this caught my eye with ladbrokes

seems a very big price but I haven't been following the sprints all year
and im not familiar with the guy whos 2nd favourite

anyone think this is worth lumping on?

Blake is Bolts Training partner. He is 100m World Champion from last year after Bolts DQ. He ran second fastest 200m ever last year despite a terrible start and could have genuinely challenged the WR with a better start (ran 19.26)

He also beat Bolt in the Olympic Trials in 100m and 200m however since then Bolt has had treatment on his Hamstring and is quoted as saying he is 95% fit. He pulled out of his last pre Olympic race to focus on training.


Despite all this I reckon that there is a bit of play acting going on and expect Bolt to come flying out of the blocks (no pun intended)

3ndahalfof6

mailburner wrote: »

this caught my eye with ladbrokes

seems a very big price but I haven't been following the sprints all year
and im not familiar with the guy whos 2nd favourite

anyone think this is worth lumping on?

It is not a sealed deal, while you would expect him to blow off the cobwebs and come out on top, commentators are saying it could be the first ever final where all finalists will run sub 10 seconds.

Michael Johnston was saying he could see Bolt running 9.3 seconds giving us a new world record,

Bolt to win and world record double?

Samich

3ndahalfof6 wrote: »

It is not a sealed deal, while you would expect him to blow off the cobwebs and come out on top, commentators are saying it could be the first ever final where all finalists will run sub 10 seconds.

Michael Johnston was saying he could see Bolt running 9.3 seconds giving us a new world record,

Bolt to win and world record double?

I don't know who I heard saying it, could be the same guy, but said if Bolt sorted out his start he could break the World record again. I wouldn't put it past him tbh.

ecoli

3ndahalfof6 wrote: »

It is not a sealed deal, while you would expect him to blow off the cobwebs and come out on top, commentators are saying it could be the first ever final where all finalists will run sub 10 seconds.

Michael Johnston was saying he could see Bolt running 9.3 seconds giving us a new world record,

Bolt to win and world record double?

Avoid like the plague. You wont get WR in London. Between climate and the fact that despite running better than last year he is not in 9.5 shape atm. I think he will win but quickest I can see is probably 9.6 mids.

There could be a bit of mid games going on but I still dont think its possible. With Blake's pressences you are going to have Bolt a little more tense in terms of his start so he wont be repeating Beijing

3ndahalfof6

ecoli wrote: »

Avoid like the plague. You wont get WR in London. Between climate and the fact that despite running better than last year he is not in 9.5 shape atm. I think he will win but quickest I can see is probably 9.6 mids.

There could be a bit of mid games going on but I still dont think its possible. With Blake's pressences you are going to have Bolt a little more tense in terms of his start so he wont be repeating Beijing

Yes I never took the obvious into consideration you are right about the climate conditions.

Juwwi

KevIRL wrote: »

PP have them at 7/1 in the event betting to win, however in their 'Irish Medals Specials' market O Leary and Burrows are 7/1 to win a medal

http://www.paddypower.com/bet/olympics/olympics-medal-special?ev_oc_grp_ids=749428

It looks like they had a good start today, they lie in second place after 2 races.
http://www.rte.ie/sport/olympics/player/331083/?autoplay=1

Just checked the odds now and only 2 bookies have odds up for it but William Hill have them at 7/2 for gold and Ladbrokes at 4/1 for gold
so they must of had a great start today.

mickmc7

Sun Yang to win the 200m free is 5/2. Crackin price. Sure he's got Lochte to beat but the man is a machine.

skydish79

Does anyone know anything about China's Ye Shiwen

She is swimming in the womens 200m IM

http://www.paddypower.com/bet/swimming/womens-olympics/Womens-200m-IM-3929665.html?force_racing_css=N

She is favourite at 5/6 but given the below info, looks a safe bet.

The "interesting" thing is that in the 400IM in her last leg she swam fast than Ryan Lochte the american swimmer

http://blogs.denverpost.com/sports/2012/07/29/chinese-swimmer-shocks-multitudes-split-beat-lochte/22522/

Im presuming its the same girl

mickmc7

skydish79 wrote: »

Does anyone know anything about China's Ye Shiwen

She is swimming in the womens 200m IM

http://www.paddypower.com/bet/swimming/womens-olympics/Womens-200m-IM-3929665.html?force_racing_css=N

She is favourite at 5/6 but given the below info, looks a safe bet.

The "interesting" thing is that in the 400IM in her last leg she swam fast than Ryan Lochte the american swimmer

http://blogs.denverpost.com/sports/2012/07/29/chinese-swimmer-shocks-multitudes-split-beat-lochte/22522/

Im presuming its the same girl

That's a cracking price. Her only competition is steph rice who had a horrible swim yesterday and coutts who just grabbed a bronze tonite without looking spectacular. All over it.

KevIRL

KevIRL wrote: »

Italy were the surprise winners of the mens teams archery today. The trio are still available at big prices for the individual event on PP though

Nespoli 66/1
Frangilli 150/1
Galiazzo 200/1

These been trimmed to

Nespoli and Frangilli 50's and Galiazzo 150/1

kincsem

Gebremeskel beat Mo Farah in The New Balance Indoor Grand Prix 3000m race in 2011 running the entire race with only one shoe.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w7gf-BRLzwM

Samich

mickmc7 wrote: »

Sun Yang to win the 200m free is 5/2. Crackin price. Sure he's got Lochte to beat but the man is a machine.

Lochte is only 3rd favourite too :eek:

Samich

skydish79 wrote: »

Does anyone know anything about China's Ye Shiwen

She is swimming in the womens 200m IM

http://www.paddypower.com/bet/swimming/womens-olympics/Womens-200m-IM-3929665.html?force_racing_css=N

She is favourite at 5/6 but given the below info, looks a safe bet.

The "interesting" thing is that in the 400IM in her last leg she swam fast than Ryan Lochte the american swimmer

http://blogs.denverpost.com/sports/2012/07/29/chinese-swimmer-shocks-multitudes-split-beat-lochte/22522/

Im presuming its the same girl

Suspicions of How a 16 year old swims faster than Lochte is mad.

Tiernster7

Can I ask if you win your bet and there is a suspicious B sample down the line Paddy never comes back does he

Samich

Tiernster7 wrote: »

Can I ask if you win your bet and there is a suspicious B sample down the line Paddy never comes back does he

I'd say if he/she gets the medal presented they can't get it back

Tiernster7

ecoli wrote: »

Great bet IMO the boxing lads have been talking of 2-3 as a genuine medal haul in the Boxing alone. Couple that with Rheinisch in the Canoeing today who placed 4th In Beijing its definitedly worth a punt despite Taylors tough draw

I've gone for this myself based on a boxer coming through. I'm more confident about medals rather than gold medals if I'm being honest

mickmc7

mickmc7 wrote: »

Sun Yang to win the 200m free is 5/2. Crackin price. Sure he's got Lochte to beat but the man is a machine.

He's into 11/10 fav now after last nites semi finals. Lochte gone out to 11/4 from even money favorite.

the groutch

remember there's 2 bronze medals in the boxing, so once they reach the semi they get a medal, no 3rd place playoff.

MacGyver007

robbie1977 wrote: »

This guy http://www.london2012.com/athlete/hrachov-dmytro-1039109/

is as low as 8/1 stan james ...10/1 bet365 ....12/1 ladbrokes for the individual event.

but he's 100/1 with other bookies .
l just done him each way 90/1 with PP

I see he is now 11/2 2nd favourite with Paddy Power!

Nuri Sahin

No real value on Lochete nor Greaves tonight.

Gone for a small bet on Missy Franklin @ 6/1 in the 100m backstroke.

Samich

Nice, I got Yang Sun last night @2.10 for the 200m freestyle on tonight.

He's cut down to @1.83 now. Lochte is 3rd favourite @4.50

Can't see Yang beaten. Still represents value.

wp_rathead

what were the odds on Angel in the 200m freestyle?