Possible Heavy Thunderstorms & Local Flooding (Wednesday 18th July)

darkman2

Hey all, doubt anyone is seriously contemplating a return of even normal summer weather at this stage.


Early Tuesday morning bands of heavy showery rain will move into western areas and extend across the country through the morning and may well bring some fairly intense thunderstorm activity particularly to the North and East through the afternoon and evening. At the moment is looks like the showers or longer spells of rain will last through the night aswell although near the south coast might turn drier.


However it's Wednesday that might focus minds in here over the next couple of days. Bare in mind this is still 4 days out so not certain by any means. There is a risk of some thunderstorms, periods of torrential rain and hail on Wednesday.

There is already a thread for thunderstorm activity. This thread is more for a risk of flooding in some areas.









With the ground already more than saturated across much of the country it would not take a long period of intense rainfall to cause problems. Definitely something to watch!:)

mike65

Seriously, just go away! :mad: :pac:

Redsunset

Updated chart for same time. Could be hit or miss but worth watching.

darkman2

I have edited the OP to reflect a moderate risk of relatively extreme rain events particularly for the northern half of the country. At this point the far south may remain free of thundery showers on Wednesday. However I think some nasty storms are in prospect further north and that is particularly the case on Wednesday.

Sponge Bob

Certainly looks like the north and west will play catchup.

Rainfall this month from Shannon to Mullingar and points n and w was not as bad as points s and e of that line.

I'd point out that tillage is less common in that northern zone and thst tillage and dairy areas seem set to avoid the worst of this along with lodging crops etc.

For us...who live here...looks like level 1 TBH .

up for anything

All that changes in these threads are the dates of the Tuesdays and Wednesdays. Is there something about those particular days of the week that encourage slight risks of extreme events?

darkman2

Bump! Just a reminder that from tomorrow morning till Wednesday night there is potential for heavy downpours and thunderstorms. Tomorrow it looks like the north, northwest and east getting the worst of any downpours but everywhere is at risk. And it looks like a period of more widespread and very heavy rain tomorrow night followed by more downpours and thunderstorms on Wednesday. Some spot flooding is likely in places.

pauldry

good

we need it

Sponge Bob

This event will only be noticed in the West/Northwest, it will be wet with the odd clap of thunder. By West of Ireland standards it will be unremarkable.

Today, with no particular advance warning, 12mm of rain fell at Casement and 11mm at Dublin Airport.

This is 1/5 of an Average July Rainfall so far today for those 2 stations and today was the wettest day so far this month in Dublin Airport.

The Tues/Weds event will be nearer a cumulative 20mm falling north from a line roughly from Mace Head NE to Ballyhaise but that is unremarkable in the west and northwest. 20mm in the west is around 25% of an average July Rainfall but the western and northern stations are nowhere close to their July averages to date...(bar Valentia)

Gurteen got well over 20mm in only one day last week, 13mm of which fell in only one hour, and never got a thread to itself at all although I believe I did comment on the 13mm at the time.

By weds it may even be sunny in south Leinster and east Munster so enjoy y'áll down there.

pauldry

today in sligo town centre there was a shower of 2 to 3mm about that lasted for 5 mnutes, pouring.

at my house 1 mile away there was none.

so i may need to up my rainfall figure for the month.

at the moment it is 39mm but this shower means sligo rainfall is closer to 42mm although they might not have got some of the showers we got earlier in the month.

thunder showers really skew the accuracy of the monthly figures! grrrr

Sponge Bob

They do Paul but the west coast met stations average c.80mm in July so you are only barely AVERAGE seeing as today is the 16th or 17th.

And it will be much drier starting Thurdsday onwards meaning this month will come in below average rainfall from Galway to Belfast and points n and w in my opinion. .

Harps

Wouldn't mind some proper rain around here either, while its been far from dry we've rarely had anything more than light rain and drizzle for much of the past few months

Not far off 50mm here over the next 48 hours on HIRLAM's prediction, doubt we'll get that much but hopefully it might be a bit more interesting than the usual misty stuff

M.T. Cranium

I think this has been a good advance alert, and have been following it in the planning of the daily forecasts. This morning, I will be upgrading the wording for Wednesday to include mention of severe local storms and a slight tornado risk. I think the dynamics will be best from about Sligo southeast towards Dublin. Readers should note that this is not a forecast of a tornado in all of those counties, of course, but a watch for one or two localized storms that could develop. Today could also be quite active for thunderstorms in the north later.

positron

So this means there won't be any dust storms or drought in the next couple of weeks?! Woohoo, that's great news!!

Deep Easterly

Some pretty intense waves of rain here earlier on this morning giving some high totals in a short space of time. Got absolutely drenched when taking a shortcut home through a football pitch, but rain was really warm and felt good on the skin. Must have been a fairly local affair as looking at stats from nearby Galway, they seem to have missed out on these showers completely.

http://weather.nuigalway.ie/12HourTrends.php

ninebeanrows

I suppose a bit of convection could get going over the southern half of the country as the higher level muck clears to the north.

Although potential somewhat limited yet.

Models want to initiate some heavy convective precip from 9PM across the mid-west spreading northeastwards.

http://www.sat24.com/en/gb

Temps up to 23c in Dublin Region @ 1500hrs

Harps

As always its now looking like a non event around here with nothing more than the usual misty rain we always get from these systems. Heavier stuff staying further south from Sligo/Mayo to east Ulster

Jpmarn

Weathercheck wrote: »

I suppose a bit of convection could get going over the southern half of the country as the higher level muck clears to the north.

Although potential somewhat limited yet.

Models want to initiate some heavy convective precip from 9PM across the mid-west spreading northeastwards.

http://www.sat24.com/en/gb

Skies are darkening near Limerick City as I write.

ninebeanrows

Jpmarn wrote: »

Skies are darkening near Limerick City as I write.

Yes you can see on the satellite some convective cells now firing up.

Next few hours will be interesting.

http://www.sat24.com/en/gb

M.T. Cranium

Some potential this evening and overnight for weak thunderstorm activity but more concerned about developments later towards 0900-1200h Wed as a more supported trough follows -- guidance indicates better chances of significant convection including severe thunderstorm potential in two zones, one across the inland south from about mid-Kerry to Wexford-Wicklow, and one across the north central regions from about Donegal Bay and inland Mayo to Meath. Although that makes it sound like Kildare and Dublin would be in between two tracks of heavier storms, the complex could allow for heavy or severe cells to develop between these tracks. This activity would begin in the west after 0900h and would impact the east around 1300-1500h.

emo72

Kicking off in West Dublin? The sky turned black and a shower out of nowhere.

Iancar29

emo72 wrote: »

Kicking off in West Dublin? The sky turned black and a shower out of nowhere.

Certainly has gone dark her in D11 too , with a nice small but intense echo on radar... need some rain as its been so humid all afternoon!
Thunder would be nice thought too!

emo72

Twas beautiful so it was. I thought thunder was a definite with all that heat.

Sierra Oscar

We are having an absolute downpour here in North Tipperary at the moment. Some localised flooding occurring in parts, and its only been raining a few minutes.

darkman2

Any above normal rainfall you would suspect is going to lead to some local spot flooding given the saturation levels atm.


That heavy band of rain crossing the country and intensifying somewhat as it does - might have the odd embedded thunderstorm - but, as MT says it's from early tomorrow things might just get lively. Still fairly warm and humid out there.

Stinicker

Bucketing it down here in South Kerry for most of the afternoon, localised flooding already.

Loads of lovely pinky purply on the radar

Iancar29

RAIN ON THE WAY! WOOO! COol the air down so i will sleep tonight !

Iancar29

Iancar29 wrote: »

RAIN ON THE WAY! WOOO! COol the air down so i will sleep tonight !

You are way too excited, no sleep tonight for you

:D

ninebeanrows

It's about to start raining in the citeh

Deep Easterly

4.3mm at Gurteen from that fast moving band of rain on 10pm reports:

http://www.met.ie/latest/reports.asp

Gurteen turning out to be one of the wettest stations this summer so far.


(posted this in wrong thread a few secs ago)

pelting down here in LOOOKAN

nerrad1983

Just started here in Newtownmountkennedy Co.Wicklow :mad:

ninebeanrows

Say this front would have looked impressive during daylight.

Nice definition to it.

http://www.met.ie/latest/rainfall_radar.asp

torrential1

Mighty shower here at around 815 this evening in Lucan... very intense for about 10 minutes but surprisingly no thunder. Raining quite heavy right now and still very humid outside.

torrential1

Actually raining very heavy now in Lucan /West Dublin...very intense...

Any cool air behind the front?

Sponge Bob

nope temps the same either west or east of it.

ninebeanrows

No sparks in the rain it would appear

Heavy rain out there now.

diceyd

heavy rain now in finglas

To Alcohol

Out playing football tonight. The heat and humidity would kill yeah. Lashing down now in Sallins. Still very humid.

Min

Rain has gotten a bit lighter, so far 8.4mm fell (9.2mm for the day), highest rain rate was 31.6mm/hr.
Brings the total for the month here so far to 80.4mm.

keith16

Pouring out of the heavens here in south Dub and still very muggy. Pity about the lack of lightning, tomorrow hopefully.

darkman2

Looks like some heavy showery rain approaching the southwest (just come in to radar range) in the next hour or so. I think that trough is the better hope for lightning as it crosses the country in the early hours.


Heavy rain here running quite easily off the garden grass which is completely saturated.

ian_m

UK Met Office have issued a Yellow warning for rain in NI and Wales

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings/?regionName=ni&from=rss&sn=6F21C1B4-F461-3503-02B9-95F27812E6A3_2_NI&utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter

Larbre34

diceyd wrote: »

heavy rain now in finglas

+1 in D15. Heavy to very heavy since 10.30 20mm/hr rate peak. stopping now as i type just the gutters and shores flowing

Oscar Bravo

Its fast approaching five to midnight,so lets head over to Met Eireann for the latest on RTE Radio 1/Sky 0160.

Rougies

Not much mention of anything substantial for tomorrow by Evelyn on that radio forecast, and nothing more than "passing showers" mentioned on the 21:33 update on met.ie
http://www.met.ie/forecasts/
hmmm

Sierra Oscar

It is quite windy out tonight too.

Iancar29

ANYONE Chasing 2moro?... Shall of course help pay for petrol , some good banter and that will make it a good day either way!.... Call me on 1-800-LETS GET A TORNADO -200... !..... or... just pm me ha

Redsunset

Wow that was some serious heavy rain earlier. Got soaked to the bone while out for a run but was very refreshing as temps are so warm and muggy. My back yard has standing water about an inch deep. Everywhere here is saturated. Rainwater is flowing out of fields so if my area gets hit with a few explosive cells Wednesday, there could be some problems.

Camera at the ready tomorrow just in case.

I've edited thread title to highlight the risk of some nasty cells exploding and potentially causing some local flooding.

My area is already soaked so won't take much more to cause problems.