Horse Racing 2012

Verance

2.5pts each way Dubai Dynamo 3.50 Doncaster 20/1 Stan James
Exposed but highly consistent which gives him an excellent shout of placing here.

Verance

5pts Lord of Drums 6.20 Perth 3/1 Stan James, SkyBet
Good form (winner) in Irish Points, receives 6lb here from the fav who won a poor 3 runner contest at Hexham. Should be favourite here and will probably go off much shorter.

Verance

1pt each way Benson's Point 6.15 Tramore 20/1 Bodog, Skybet
Following the gamble on this one in a good each way betting race, 12s in places and looks set for a good run.

Verance

Few early ones for York:


2pts each way Deauville Flyer 4.15 16s Betfred, Totesport

3rd in this last year and runs off 5lbs lower now. Good run lto, coming back to form, having to race alone on the stands side but shaping well.


2.5pts each way Farhh 3.40 14/1 Ladbrokes

Opposing St Nic here who is over-rated and unproven at the trip. Farhh's last run behind Nathaniel entitles him to second here, and should something go wrong with Frankel he can capitalise.


2pts each easy Spanish Duke 4.50 20/1 Stan James, Betpack

Ran a nice race at Goodwood lto, travelling wide all the way and down to awinnable mark here.

Verance

Few more for York:

2pts Encke 3.05 11/2 generally

2pts Noble Mission 3.05 5/1 SJ

2.5pts each way Sri Putra w/o Frankel 3.40 14/1 Betfred, Totesport

2pts each way Van der Art 4.50 11/1 BlueSq

2pts each way Start Right 4.50 12/1 generally

Verance

3 against the field in the 2.00 York, 2pts each way on all:

Willie Wag Tail 5/1 generally
Martin Chuttlewits 12/1 Bet365
John Biscuit 14/1 Lads, Bet365

Verance

5pts Swampfire 4.55 Kilbeggan 3/1 Bet365
Decent flat form should have the beating of most here in a poor contest, mistake at the last lto cost him but should be closer to evens here in my book.

Verance

Verance wrote: »

5pts Swampfire 4.55 Kilbeggan 3/1 Bet365
Decent flat form should have the beating of most here in a poor contest, mistake at the last lto cost him but should be closer to evens here in my book.

Also gonna have a saver

2pts each way Ontheground 7/1 generally

Verance

2.5pts each way Mysterious Man 2.30 York 14/1 VC, Bet365
Mawaqeet has franked the form of his last win, finishing 2nd to Sir Graham Wade in a good Goodwood handicap off 87. Mysterious Man won that race really easily, picking up nicely when he got the gap and going clear before pricking his ears and idling in front. He won with far more in hand than the 2.5 lengths margin making a mark of 83 here look very lenient. He goes well on soft ground and should improve for the step up in trip. I'd have him disputing favouritsm here.

Verance

And another max bet today:

5pts Cavalryman 3.05 York 7/2 generally
I don't think Saddler's Rock is as good as the market suggests here. Johnny Murtagh is a big advantage to him and it's a big negative that he's not in the saddle here and the falling rain is another negative for his chances. Cavalryman is a class act (Prix Neil winner and 3rd to Sea the Stars in the Arc) who has won at York before and proven he stays a strong 2 miles in the Coral Marathon. Should be fav.

Verance

1pt each way Gordon Lord Byron 2.00 York 4/1 Bet365

1pt each way Dubawi Sound 2.00 York 14/1 Bet365

1pt each way Hammerfest 3.40 York 11/1 generally

1pt Manalisa 4.00 Newmarket 9/4 Totesport, Betfred

1pt each way Annie's Fortune 2.15 Goodwood 16/1 Bet365

Verance

2pts each way Vastonea 4.55 Curragh 6/1 Coral
Improving nicely this season, winning in good style lto and looked like value for more there after being forced to switch a few times. Best form in the race with an improving profile looks a solid favourite.

saiint

be nice to post the results after all your picks

Verance

saiint wrote: »

be nice to post the results after all your picks

I'll be posting up the full stats soon, just dreading it now cause there's so much to get through and I don't have the time at the minute..


One for today:

2pts Brunston 2.35 Huntingdon 5/1 Stan James, Betpack

Been backed from 14s to 4s and 10s to 3s last weekend before being declared non runner twice. Powell's like a gamble and this one looks lined up for one. Should go off much shorter.

Verance

saiint wrote: »

be nice to post the results after all your picks

I'll be posting up the full stats soon, just dreading it now cause there's so much to get through and I don't have the time at the minute..


One for today:

2pts Brunston 2.35 Huntingdon 5/1 Stan James, Betpack

Been backed from 14s to 4s and 10s to 3s last weekend before being declared non runner twice. Powell's like a gamble and this one looks lined up for one. Should go off much shorter.

Verance

5pts Communicator 2.30 Chester 5/1 Totesport, Betfred, Bet365

2.5pts each way Ponty Acclaim 4.15 Beverley 8/1 Bet365 (1/3 1,2,3)

2pts Dank 3.25 Sandown 11/2 generally

2pts each way Miblish 4.00 Sandown 22/1 Bodog, VC

2pts each way Start Right 4.00 Sandown16/1 generally

2pts each way Indian Jack 4.00 Sandown 6/1 Ladbrokes, Bet365

Verance

5pts King Ozzy 6.55 Market Rasen 12/1 Betfred, Totesport
The most under-rated trainer combining with a jockey who's worth at least an extra 5lb with his claim.

Verance

2pts each way Angels Guard Thee 5.35 Roscommon 5/1 Bet365
Very well bred 3yo by Dylan Thomas out of a High Estate mare, made good debut at Leopardstown finishing 6th, step up in trip should suit and breeding suggests there's more to come, especially over a tight track like todays.

Verance

St Leger:
2.5pts each way Thought Worthy 12/1 888Sport, Bodog, BlueSq
Now that Great Heavens is heading to Longchamp, Thought Worthy will lead Gosden's chase for a 3rd successive St Leger. Gosden has won this 5 times in total, including with Thought Worthy's full brother Lucarno. Thought Worthy finished 4th in the Derby (like Lucarno) and won the Great Voltigeur impressively (like Lucarno) lto. He has been improving with his racing, just as his brother did, and should be much shorter here to turn over the over-rated Camelot. Camelot has done all he can in winning the 5 races he has run in to date but he has only beaten one horse (Power) who has gone on to win a Group one, proving the form isn't too strong. He may well not improve for the step up to 1m6.5f of the Leger (Thought Worthy probably will) and be sure Ballydoyle will pull him out if there's any injury concern or too much rain (or just as an excuse not to lose).

Verance

Sprint Cup:
5pts Bated Breath 4/1 Paddy Power
He's done really well recently at an unsuitable 5f on softish ground, his optimum conditions are 6 furlongs on very fast ground, which he should encounter here. His form at Haydock reads 1121 and he should be able to improve several lbs on recent efforts and ahead of Ortensia.

Verance

Ladbrokes Mobile Handicap:
2.5pts each way Gospel Choir 5/1 Powers, VC, Bet365

Good example of a Group horse in a handicap, Gospel Choir had a big class advantage and should be much shorter. I'd definitely have this <1.5 to place!

Verance

2pts each way Smarty Socks 3.45 Ascot 9/1 Stan James, Betpack
Gets his conditions here with a big field, likely strong gallop and fast ground. Won this race last year against better horses and is back here off the same mark after performing below par on soft ground lately.

Verance

2.5pts each way Castilo del Diablo 4.15 Ascot 12/1 generally
Massive scope for improvement off a mark of just 81, showed really nice form lto stepping up to a mile and a half for the ifrst time on fast ground, beating promising rivals cosily. First run in a handicap so he's avoided taking a hike in the weights already like the top f the market.

Verance

3pts Alanza 4.40 Leopardstown 9/1 Betfred, Totesport
Opposing Emulous and Duntle here as they are unproven on this fast ground. Alanza has show her best form on fast ground, improving a bundle for it lto at Newbury and I can see her progressing further.

Verance

2pts each way Bannock 3.45 Ascot 10/1 generally
Been highly consistent this summer, shaping much better than the result a few times. I think this 7f trip will be his optimum and he should go well.

Verance

2pts each way Double Dealer 3.05 Kempton 18/1 BlueSq, 888Sport

Verance

2pts each way on the below at Fontwell:

Miss Mayfair 5.45 17/2 SJ, VC

Frederick William 3.05 16s generally

Overlay 3.40 15/2 VC, Sportingbet

Verance

Verance wrote: »

Miss Mayfair 5.45 17/2 SJ, VC

Lawney hill is probably the most consistently under-rated trainer, with a big level stakes profit backing her runners blindly. She has an excellent record for improving horses moved to her and it'd be a surprise if this horse wasn't reated at least 10lbs higher in a few months.

Verance wrote: »

Frederick William 3.05 16s generally

By far the most interesting horse running today. 100/1 was available last night in a place (sadly wasn't able to get on!) and has been steadily backed off the boards this morning from generally available 40s and 25s. Races off a mark of 64 here in it's first try chasing, which looks very lenient considering he's won off that on the flat. After that win at Kempton the trainer said “We got him handicapped over hurdles on soft ground and he has the same rating (64) as he does on the flat. WE CAN’T WAIT TO GO SUMMER JUMPING WITH HIM”.

Verance wrote: »

Overlay 3.40 15/2 VC, Sportingbet

Another horse recently moved to Lawney Hills and although racing out of the handicap today, it'd be a surprise if there wasn't improvement to come.