Horse Racing 2012

Verance

Been awhile since I've had a log!! 1-5pts max, 2.5pts max each way bet.

And bet 1 is 2.5pts each way Society Rock 3.45 Ascot at 12/1 with most firms. 2nd in this race as a 3 year old, won it as a 4 year old and surely has a great chance of upsetting Black Caviar as a 5 year old. Black Caviar is clearly top notch and probably 10lbs better than anything else here but I'm keen to take her on. She's never raced here, has a long journey to overcome and racing on softer than ideal ground. Thousands of people will be backing her without ever having seen her race. Society Rock will love the course and distance and conditions will suit so it's not a big stretch to see a 5 length swing between the two horses. Here's hoping!

Verance

Verance wrote: »

Been awhile since I've had a log!! 1-5pts max, 2.5pts max each way bet.

And bet 1 is 2.5pts each way Society Rock 3.45 Ascot at 12/1 with most firms. 2nd in this race as a 3 year old, won it as a 4 year old and surely has a great chance of upsetting Black Caviar as a 5 year old. Black Caviar is clearly top notch and probably 10lbs better than anything else here but I'm keen to take her on. She's never raced here, has a long journey to overcome and racing on softer than ideal ground. Thousands of people will be backing her without ever having seen her race. Society Rock will love the course and distance and conditions will suit so it's not a big stretch to see a 5 length swing between the two horses. Here's hoping!

Very disappointing. Starter let them go when SR was sitting down, lost 5-6 lengths at the start, ran a good race but never had a chance after that. Murtagh said he would have won but for that


Will probably have a few today. First up 1pt each way Berling 3.00 Newmarket 13/2 with Paddy Power. He's always struggled with temperament but if giving his best form here can definitely give Dandino a race. Looks overpriced as stable is in poor form but had a good winner yesterday and hopefully can get back on track.

Verance

2pts each way win Bridgehampton 8.30 Lingfield 9/2 Betfred, Tote, 365
Is improving out of sight since being gelded and looks likes there's more to come. Definite rick.

Verance

1pt each way Majestic Myles 3.35 Newmarket 6/1 Generally
Unlucky when 3rd on seasonal debut but ran a cracker to be 2nd to Pastoral Player last time with Red Jazz and Doncaster Rover behind. That form gives him every chance here.

1pt each way Montaff 3.320 Newcastle 12/1 Ladbrokes, VC, 365
Ran a cracker in this last year, return to this track and soft ground big plus. 11lbs lower than last year so if he reproduces that effort, should go very close.

2pts Fulbright 3.55 Newcastle 11/2 VC
Looks to have the best form in the race so should be fav. Clear rick to me.

Verance

That's all for the afternoon's action I'd say, might post a few more for the Curragh later this evening.

Now, for breakfast!

Verance

2 more for the Curragh:

1pt each way Potomac 5.20 6/1 Boyles, Coral
NIce progressive profile, won lto at Cork really impressively without the best of runs and a 7lb hike looks lenient.

1pt each way Light Heavy 7.40 25/1 Coral
The 3-year-olds look a poor bunch this year and Camelot is no superstar. The form of his Guineas and Derby wins have taken a severe hit and with conditions not in his favour at all today, I'm keen to take him on at 1/3. Imperial Monarch looks over-rated too with people forgiving his French Guineas run far too easily considering he finished behind horses that day who had a much tougher race than him. Conditions won't suit Born to Sea or Akeed Mofeed on seasonal debut so I'm going for Light Heavy. He's a tough, tenacious horse who will appreciate the soft conditions and Bolger will have freshened him up nicely as this was the target for some time.

Verance

Verance wrote: »

1pt each way Light Heavy 7.40 25/1 Coral
The 3-year-olds look a poor bunch this year and Camelot is no superstar. The form of his Guineas and Derby wins have taken a severe hit and with conditions not in his favour at all today, I'm keen to take him on at 1/3. Imperial Monarch looks over-rated too with people forgiving his French Guineas run far too easily considering he finished behind horses that day who had a much tougher race than him. Conditions won't suit Born to Sea or Akeed Mofeed on seasonal debut so I'm going for Light Heavy. He's a tough, tenacious horse who will appreciate the soft conditions and Bolger will have freshened him up nicely as this was the target for some time.

I'm adding another 1pt each way @ 16/1 Ladbrokes to this as it's a cracker.

Verance

Going to have 1pt each Astrology 22/1 Coral, Hills in the Derby too. Not too much to find on the fav considering he had to make the pace in the Derby. Soft is an unknown but may improve him.

Verance

Disastrous yesterday!

Berling was well backed and finished 3rd but the NR meant only 2 places. -2
Bridgehampton backed from 9/2 into 13/8 fav and ran well to finish 2nd. -.2
Majestic Myles I thought was the best horse in the race but got no pace to run at, he'll be winning soon. -2
Montaff 12/1 into 8s and ran really well just being pipped for the place in the closing stages. -2
Fulbright made good headway during the race but just faded in the last furlong, possibly won't get home over 7f in heavy. -2
Potomac didn't look good enough -2
Light Heavy doesn't have the class for the top two here -4
Astrology given no chance by the disgusting Ballydoyle outfit -2

-16.2, ouch!

Verance

2pts win Hartani 5.25 4/1 Generally
Only 3 career starts and is improving with every run and step up in trip should suit. Favourite was flattered lto with unaccompanied not giving her true showing and Saddler's Rock not fully wound up. Sense of Purpose and Steps to Freedom will hate the ground and Hartani should comfortably confirm form with Offer.

1pt win Up 4.20 8/1 Generally
I'm forgiving her French Oaks run as she was held up from a terrible draw and was checked repeatedly in her run. Before that she has some excellent form - 2nd to Beauty Parlour from a terrible draw in the French Guineas and 2nd to Homecoming Queen in the Guineas Trial.

Verance

1pt each way Pulverise 4.50 Salisbury 4/1 Powers, Stan James
Average looking maiden and the top 3 look to have similar form so I think it's worth siding with the outsider of the top 3 in Pulverise. He's shown nothing spectacular in 3 starts but has been consistent and a repeat of those runs could see him go very close in this weak contest.

Verance

One for the Eclipse on Saturday:
2.5pts each way Cityscape 12/1 Lads, 888

First off, So You Think is a ridiculous price and is one of the most over-rated horses in training. This is a very hot contest - Farhh probably would of gotten very close to So You Think last time but for not getting a clear run and Nathaniel would have been upsides him last year but for setting a blistering gallop. They're probably all value but I'm plumping for Cityscape, who's officially rated So You Think's equal yet is 12 times the price. He's a true Group 1 horse, will love the underfoot conditions and may well improve for the step up to 12 furlongs (he ran his best race when winning the Dubai Duty Free in record time over the furthest distance he's tried so far).

Verance

Antepost King George:
2.5pts each way Dunaden 7/1 Coral
Been improving nicely for Delzangles for a while now and still looks under rated. Should have beaten Sea Moon at Ascot but for being very unlucky in running and getting a terrible ride. I'd have him half this price.

Verance

2pts win Dreams of Fire 4.55 Sandown 10/1 Ladbrokes
Good win at Kempton in October and I'm ignoring her last effort in the Chester Oaks as went off far too fast in heavy ground. Drop to 1m2f to suit and looks to have every chance.

1pt win Dutch Supreme 1.30 Sandown 13/2 Stan James
Looks to be improving and has got some solid form at Kempton's All Weather. Every chance if able to match that form on turf debut.

Verance

1pt each way Monterosso 3.45 Sandown 14/1 Coral 1/4 1,2,3
Highest rated horse in the field that has been improving steadily since joining Godolphin culminating in a easy success in the Dubai World Cup. The favourite Farhh is priced up on form with So You Think but he is one of the most over-rated horses out there and I'm against Farhh for that reason. Also against Nathaniel on seasonal debut over a slightly too short trip. I'm also expecting Camelot's form to take yet another hit with the 3yos under-performing.

Verance

1pt each way Vainglory 2.40 Sandown 25/1 Ladbrokes
Shaped much better than 5th at Doncaster 2 starts ago and did well to finish 3rd lto finishing best of all down the wide outside. Coming into form, soft should suit and just 1lb higher than previous winning mark.

2pts win Franciscan 3.25 Haydock 13/2 generally
Great record for Cumani in this race and can better it with Franciscan. He stayed on really well lto in a good handicap and a 4lb hike looks fairly lenient.

Verance

2pts win Elusivity 2.05 Sandown 8/1 generally
Looks to have continued to improve this season with a fine close 3rd behind Mayson and Definightly in a Group 3. This trip on a stiff track in softish ground probably ideal conditions and he should go well.

2pts win Elnawin 2.05 Sandown 7/1 generally
Good consistent horse who's lightly raced for a 6yo. He ran very well against Markab lto, trapped wide throughout and he should come on for that. Soft ground will suit.

2pts each way Classic Colori 2.40 Sandown 16/1 Bet365, PP, VC
Hasn't won in a few years but highly consistent. He's only 3lb higher than when winning the Silver Cambridgeshire, acts on soft going and catches the eye riding for David O’Meara.

Verance

July Cup:
2pts win, 1pt place Dandy Boy 16/1 Bet365 1/4 1,2,3

Impressive win in Ascot handicap lto and definitely has the class for this. Getting in there before Pricewise tips it!

Verance

John Smith's Cup
2.5pts each way Media Hype 12/1 Ladbrokes, Sky Bet
Didn't get the break and was squeezed out of it early lto at Newmarket, ground will be much more in his favour at York and he has proven he acts well at the course. The Burke's are generally under-rated by the market and this one looks a good few points too big.

Verance

1pt each way Balcary Bay 3.10 Yarmouth 50/1 Hills, Stan James
First start for this one but starting in a really weak looking contest. By Zamindar, out of a Peintre Celebre mare, lots of winners in pedigree at around the 9-11f distances. Worth a punt at a huge price.

Verance

2pts win Joshua Tree 3.00 Newmarket 16/1 Generally
Definitely has the class for this, 1m4f on soft ground will be ideal and is likely to get a strong pace and can pick up the pieces late on.

3pts win Razorbill 2.25 Newmarket 9/1 Generally
I've been waiting for this fella to step up to 1m2f for a while, it will suit his running style and his pedigree shows a liking for stamina. 4lb well in here too.

2pts win Hajras 2.25 Newmarket 13/2 Generally
The form of his race lto has been franked in some top class races, he finished a really impressive second that day while showing obvious signs of inexperience running very greenly for the last two furlongs. I'm confident he'll make this handicap mark look very silly in time.

Verance

1pt win Aldwick Bay 7/2 Ladbrokes
I'm forgiving last run as never gave anything but on the form of his Windsor win on soft going would have every chance in this. The fav has been catching the eye recently but it seems it's been catching everybody's eye as looks far too short in this.

Verance

2pts each way Tartiflette 1.20 Newmarket 10/1 Hills
Fine consistent performer and should be placing here if giving her usual game performance as all her recent form puts her in contention. No idea why she's overpriced but looks obvious rick.

Verance

2pts each way Mr Red Clubs 1.50 Newmarket 16/1 generally
In some blistering good form this season improving to win 4 on the bounce on the all weather and carrying the improvement through in 3 starts on the turf. Handicapper has left him unchanged after a fine performance at this course running into traffic problems but finishing a close third.

2pts each way Place in my Heart 1.50 Newmarket 16/1 generally
Has continued to progress this season, running on well for 2nd in a race which smashed the 5f course record at Kempton. She's had excuses since then not getting the run of the race but staying on well, shaping as though this extra furlong will suit.

Verance

2pts each way Giofra 3.00 Newmarket 15/2 Bet365 1/4 1,2,3
Missed some of the value here after Pricewise put it up but she still warrants a big bet in my book. Fav looks far far too short, she's obviously talented but seems to be winning slowly run races in a sprint for the line and soft ground is an unknown. Giofra wasn't disgraced being beaten by a peak form Cirrus Des Aigles, and did well to finish ahead of Reliable Man that day. The testing ground will bring her stamina into this.

2pts each way Jovialty 3.00 Newmarket 12/1 Bet365, BlueSq 1/4 1,2,3
The soft ground will also bring Jovialty's stamina out to play. She picked up really impressively at Ascot to beat Chachamaidee and the in-form Gosden says soft ground is no worry.

Verance

2pts each way Harrison George 2.40 Newmarket 33/1 Totesport, Betfred
Form on soft or heavy ground reads 22122294, races off a mark of 92 tomorrow which is almost 20lbs below his best, has run well in past on seasonal reappearance.

Verance

2pts each way Stevie Thunder 2.40 Newmarket 22/1 Ladbrokes
Another who should enjoy the soft ground, won 2 handicaps last season and lots of good placed efforts, good 7th in Hunt Cup lto would give him every chance here racing off same mark.

Verance

4pts win High Jinx 2.25 York 9/2 Sportingbet
At his best on soft, step up to 1m6f should really suit this fella, did really well come from off the pace lto at this course to repel Anatolian, has progressed with every run and should be favourite here.

2pts each way Alkimos 3.00 York 12/1 Generally
Did really well to finish 4th in the Duke of Edinburgh, getting shuffled back on the home turn and having to challenge down the slow far side.

Verance

2pts win Russian Rave 2.35 Newbury 9/2 Boyles
A mile on soft ground looks ideal, she's done well to win at Leicester and Goodwood over 7 furlongs and I think she'll be better over the mile.

Verance

2.5pts each way Area Fifty One 3.00 York 6/1 Generally
Looks the obvious one here to me and I think should be fav, Koukash sent this one to Fahey especially to win here, was really taken with win at Newmarket lto and comes here with a few lb in hand and Shane Kelly claims another useful 5lb.

Verance

King George:

St Nicholas Abbey has been beaten by Danedream, Nathaniel and Windsor Palace in his last 5 runs, the soft ground will favour other horses, going left-handed is a concern and he doesn't have the best form in the race. So there looks plenty of value in opposing the fav.

4pts win, 1pt place Deep Brillante 20/1 generally
Won Japanese Derby in near record time and gets a massive 12lb allowance here as a 3yo. His breeding suggests he needs a real test of stamina so soft ground over 1m4f looks his optimal, he's won on only previous run on soft ground.

2pts win, 1pt place Reliable Man
Won French Derby last year on soft ground on just his third start. I'm willing to ignore his next few runs due to inadequate trip or fast ground but he again showed his class in the Prince of Wales’s Stakes at Royal Ascot, having to travel past horses on the outside of the field but still getting within 3 lengths of So You Think.