NBA Offseason Thread 2012-2013

Paully D

Now that the finals are over we might as well get stuck into the offseason. Hopefully we can use this thread to discuss everything offseason for the upcoming 2012-2013 season.

There's some big questions that will be answered over the next few months, some of them are:

Will Dwight Howard be traded? It looks like Pau Gasol definitely will, but where will he end up? Where will free agents such as Deron Williams, Steve Nash, Jason Kidd, Kevin Garnett and Jason Terry go?

What sort of moves, trades etc do you think we'll see this offseason?

Lafortezza

Steve Nash has said that he would definitely consider a move to the Knicks.
He already spends most of his summers in NYC and it would be interesting to see how he works with Melo and Stoudamire (again).
It's interesting because Lin is a restricted free agent I think and the Knicks are at the limit of their salary cap. Lin could probably get a decent paycheck from some other team in the league, and the Knicks might not be able to match it and keep him without messing up their financials.
Nash (Baron Davis as backup), Shumpert, Melo, Stoudamire, Tyson Chandler, is a pretty nice lineup if Nash can get everyone on the same page and playing well. He is 38 years old though.

Lafortezza

Does anyone know when OKC needs to make a decision about the contracts of Ibaka and Harden? I think they are both contracted for next season, but then they are unrestricted free agents and can move to new teams for big money.

Paully D

Lafortezza wrote: »

Steve Nash has said that he would definitely consider a move to the Knicks.
He already spends most of his summers in NYC and it would be interesting to see how he works with Melo and Stoudamire (again).
It's interesting because Lin is a restricted free agent I think and the Knicks are at the limit of their salary cap. Lin could probably get a decent paycheck from some other team in the league, and the Knicks might not be able to match it and keep him without messing up their financials.
Nash (Baron Davis as backup), Shumpert, Melo, Stoudamire, Tyson Chandler, is a pretty nice lineup if Nash can get everyone on the same page and playing well. He is 38 years old though.

Any chance of Nash winding up at Miami, I wonder?

SoulGuy

I actually think Toronto & Brooklyn are under-the-radar possibilities for Nash. He did accept the GM job for Team Canada this off season after all, and may use his last couple of years to try to grow the sport in his home country by going to Toronto. If Deron leaves New Jersey...and that's looking like a very distinct possibility...I could see them throwing a desperate amount of money at him because they run the risk of playing their first game in Brooklyn with a team that's built around Brook Lopez, Gerald Wallace, and Kris Kardashian :pac:. You gotta figure they'd want some star power as they move to NYC.

There's always a good chance of him staying in Phoenix too. If he was overly concerned about winning a ring, he would have forced himself out of there years ago.

GoldFour4

SoulGuy wrote: »

I actually think Toronto & Brooklyn are under-the-radar possibilities for Nash. He did accept the GM job for Team Canada this off season after all, and may use his last couple of years to try to grow the sport in his home country by going to Toronto. If Deron leaves New Jersey...and that's looking like a very distinct possibility...I could see them throwing a desperate amount of money at him because they run the risk of playing their first game in Brooklyn with a team that's built around Brook Lopez, Gerald Wallace, and Kris Kardashian :pac:. You gotta figure they'd want some star power as they move to NYC.

There's always a good chance of him staying in Phoenix too. If he was overly concerned about winning a ring, he would have forced himself out of there years ago.

Nah can't see him going to Toronto or Brooklyn. He wants a ring. He's an incredibly loyal genuine guy. He couldn't bring himself to abandon Phoenix when Amare left. I think he'll leave this year and head to the Knicks or the Heat. Both options have their advantages. Obviously in New York he would be reunited with Amare who was a key part of his 2 mvp seasons.

Miami can offer him the best chance to get a ring though. And I don't think any of us could begrudge him for taking his talents to South Beach next year. Nash would probably settle on a low enough contract with the Heat. That team would be bloody awesome next year if they manage to get Nash.


Deron Williams to Dallas seems like the most likely answer at the moment. If Cuban gets his hands on Deron then there's a big chance he'll get DH12 the year after.

I'd look for the Knicks to try and make a big trade involving one of their stars. Its obvious that their current roster isn't going to win in the East.



My phantom team for next year is the Wizards. I think that team will make the playoffs. They have one of the most exciting lineups of recent years and have built up quietly. John Wall at point, Nene, Jon Vesley (who emerged as a decent starter late this season), Emeka Okefor ( Acquired a few days ago from the Hornets) and the number 3 draft pick. That pick will probably be Michael Kidd Gilchrist or Harrison Barnes. I hope its Barnes. He was projected number one a few years ago and slipped a few places. I think he will be an All Star sooner rather then later. Oh and they finally traded away that awful Awful Rashard Lewis contract.

GoldFour4

Lafortezza wrote: »

Does anyone know when OKC needs to make a decision about the contracts of Ibaka and Harden? I think they are both contracted for next season, but then they are unrestricted free agents and can move to new teams for big money.

I think theres a big chance Harden gets traded this summer. Will be a very tough decison but theres not room for 4 max contracts on the roster. They have 2 scorers in Durant and Westbrook so they need to secure the defensive star in Ibaka.

killwill

malachyscott wrote: »

I think theres a big chance Harden gets traded this summer. Will be a very tough decison but theres not room for 4 max contracts on the roster. They have 2 scorers in Durant and Westbrook so they need to secure the defensive star in Ibaka.

Very true but what a loss he will be for OKC. Great defence, strong drive and a good shot.
Great addition for any other team interested. And he deserves to be a starter too.

Lafortezza

Paully D wrote: »

Any chance of Nash winding up at Miami, I wonder?

I think he would have to take the Veteran's minimum though I could be wrong, Miami are maxed financially so would either have to release players or trade away somebody for picks to free up space. Even though Nash is old he can still get paid pretty well for a year or two.
If he wants a ring above everything else then Miami would be a good choice. Would suck to be Chalmers in that situation though.

Lafortezza

malachyscott wrote: »

I'd look for the Knicks to try and make a big trade involving one of their stars. Its obvious that their current roster isn't going to win in the East.

This is a really tough situation for the Knicks. Both Amare and Melo are on huge money, but both have shown this season that they might not have that high a trade value.
Amare has injury issues and is not a big money PF any more compared to his days in PHX. Melo is still an amazing scorer, but can be difficult to fit in a competent offence when he holds up the ball so much. It would be very very hard for the Knicks to get fair value for either.
Chandler is great player but he's the last one they want to trade as he's so important to a defensively weak team (Shumpert and maybe Fields aside).

Paully D

Lafortezza wrote: »

I think he would have to take the Veteran's minimum though I could be wrong, Miami are maxed financially so would either have to release players or trade away somebody for picks to free up space. Even though Nash is old he can still get paid pretty well for a year or two.
If he wants a ring above everything else then Miami would be a good choice. Would suck to be Chalmers in that situation though.

Miller will probably go either by being amnestied or retiring which would free up almost $6m a year. There's others like Howard, House and Curry who will become free agents this offseason which will save Miami a further $3m-$4m on the salary cap.

http://hoopshype.com/salaries/miami.htm

That would be a nice bit of money for Miami to work with. I think they can pay Nash the mid-level exception anyway.

Imagine how good they would be with Nash, Wade, LeBron and Bosh in their starting line up :eek:

Borisss

Nash is pretty adamant he can have three more years fully healthy.

Will be bummed if we lose Lin though after the enthusiasm and life he put back into the franchise.

Nash would be a sweetner though, not sure why he'd go to Miami when he's already practically based in NY.

Also, if Rondo gets traded I can see OKC being interested and moving Westbrook to the 2.

GoldFour4

Yeah I'd say Miller retiring is a certainty. He's been in the league a long time (13 years I think) and finally got a ring this season. Add in his back problems and I'd say he's a certainty. Battier will retire too probably

killwill

malachyscott wrote: »

Yeah I'd say Miller retiring is a certainty. He's been in the league a long time (13 years I think) and finally got a ring this season. Add in his back problems and I'd say he's a certainty. Battier will retire too probably

I reckon Miller is a certainty alright. Battier surely has another good season in him .Maybe not at the Heat though.

What is the story with Lin? My understanding of the situation is that an arbitrator rules in favour of the Knicks going over their budget to resign Lin. Is this correct? I have a good knowledge of offensive and defencive plays and such but when it comes to off the court stuff I suck tbh.

raze

Borisss wrote: »

Also, if Rondo gets traded I can see OKC being interested and moving Westbrook to the 2.

How much of a prospect is there of Rondo being traded? He's never been more valuable to the Cs, and he's got a good relationship with Rivers.

By the end of the season the team totally relied on him to probe for a single pass, so he was the only essential part of their offense.

While the Celtics have extensive rebuilding to be done all the veterans have said that the attitude is already there that it's Rondo's team and has been for a season. So while they couldn't buy an offensive rebound, nor attack on transition, if they do get players who can contribute in that way Rondo has a better opportunity to expand his game with the team he already plays for.

And the cap room has to be there for him to be duly rewarded with so many other players in flux.

That said, I haven't been following NBA long, and this is the first time I'm paying attention to a close season - so if I'm not reading it correctly, apologies.

killwill wrote:

Very true but what a loss he will be for OKC. Great defence, strong drive and a good shot.
Great addition for any other team interested. And he deserves to be a starter too.

He may deserve to be a starter but the Thunder have tried starting him in the season and his stats took a nosedive and afterward he requested to go back to the sixth man. He's always streaky, but not very clutch from what I saw in the Finals, and his defence is adequate at best. Nonetheless, a good player, but I'm not totally convinced his potential is as high as some would suggest. (Arbitrarily, I'll like him more when I see him without that beard.)

He's far more interchangeable than Ibaka for OKC.

leggo

As an Orlando fan, I'm daring to dream. I did up some sums a while back that figured we could bring in Deron Williams if we got rid of Jameer Nelson and cleaned out the role players. Basically do a Miami job and built almost entirely around Deron, Howard and Ryan Anderson (who I feel will grow into a big-time role player in the next few years). Deron and Howard are dying to play together, after all. While there is still the possibility that Howard can go to Brooklyn, he's still technically committed to us and Deron is unsettled. I think he'll make a decision quicker than Dwight, too. And, you never know, the new GM might just manage to make the dice land in our favour.

Having said that, I'd still settle for Gasol and Bynum for Howard. Whether that's still on the table or not after Dwight's carry on this year, though, is another story. The Lakers will know they need to do something fast, though, with Kobe on his last legs.

GoldFour4

leggo wrote: »

As an Orlando fan, I'm daring to dream. I did up some sums a while back that figured we could bring in Deron Williams if we got rid of Jameer Nelson and cleaned out the role players. Basically do a Miami job and built almost entirely around Deron, Howard and Ryan Anderson (who I feel will grow into a big-time role player in the next few years). Deron and Howard are dying to play together, after all. While there is still the possibility that Howard can go to Brooklyn, he's still technically committed to us and Deron is unsettled. I think he'll make a decision quicker than Dwight, too. And, you never know, the new GM might just manage to make the dice land in our favour.

Having said that, I'd still settle for Gasol and Bynum for Howard. Whether that's still on the table or not after Dwight's carry on this year, though, is another story. The Lakers will know they need to do something fast, though, with Kobe on his last legs.

Sorry to have to burst your bubble.. Williams said today he's going to either Dallas or staying with the Nets.

I think your far better off hoping for a Bynum Howard swap with the lakers. Gasol will probably be traded but you won't get both guys in the same trade. You could get a first rounder though. Only if you do the trde this summer though. Howard loses trade value as the days tick by and his impending free agency gets closer and closer.

leggo

Well ESPN are now reporting that he's demanding a trade to the Nets before the draft. I've had enough of this tbh. I'll take a couple of seasons to rebuild over dealing with this false hope at this stage. The Nets can deal with his tantrums and drama instead.

killwill

leggo wrote: »

Well ESPN are now reporting that he's demanding a trade to the Nets before the draft. I've had enough of this tbh. I'll take a couple of seasons to rebuild over dealing with this false hope at this stage. The Nets can deal with his tantrums and drama instead.

Howard wants to go to the Nets?
Can someone tell me why the Nets are more attractive a team for him than say staying at Orlando or going to the Lakers?

leggo

I think it's all to do with playing with Deron Williams. I'd say they fancy themselves as a LeBron/Wade, 'dream team'-style pairing. You just don't know what's going through Dwight's head though.

GoldFour4

killwill wrote: »

Howard wants to go to the Nets?
Can someone tell me why the Nets are more attractive a team for him than say staying at Orlando or going to the Lakers?

He doesn't think Orlando can bring him a championship, and it;s not a big enough market for his persona.

If he goes to the Nets then they actually have a decent team, williams, wallace, lopez and howard. Thats not actually bad !

I think LA would be the likely landing spot if Brooklyn falls through. It would be more so for the location and celeb lifestyle though. That lakers team is in a bad need of a big rebuild. A center isn't enough.

GoldFour4

Lots of talk of Houston trying to make a play for DH12. They're trying to complete trades with the Raptors and Kings which would give them 2 top 10 picks. They'd then offer them to Orlando.

padraig_f

The Bulls have some interesting decisions to make. If Rose hadn't got injured, they'd be only making minor changes around the fringes, but with Rose not expected back before the All-Star break, and probably won't be back to his old form until the following season, realistically next season is a semi-transitional season. So that's why there's some talk about the Bulls trading into the lottery positions (maybe the Warriors #7 pick, or Kings #5 pick).

Even though Deng is a valuable player for the Bulls, Doug Thonus makes a decent case why, with the new CBA and Rose's injury, trading him is an option:
The new NBA model and why Chicago should consider trading Luol Deng

He makes $13m next year when the Bulls probably won't be contending for a championship, so you look at investing more in the future.

This is an unfortunate thing with the new CBA, it becomes hard for teams that have done everything right in the draft (like the Bulls or the Thunder) to keep their teams together. The Bulls hands are forced because Omer Asik is a restricted free agent this year and Taj Gibson is next year, who they want to keep.

Under the old CBA you'd pay a bit of luxury tax if you're a contender, but the luxury tax penalties are much harsher now and it also reduces your mid-level exception if you're paying luxury tax. It says a lot that traditional big spenders like the Mavs and Lakers have been shedding salary.

Pretty interesting draft coming up. With the lockout last year, probably a number of college players stayed out of last year's draft, making this year's draft stronger. And then you have the new CBA making those rookie salaries look more attractive.

padraig_f

malachyscott wrote: »

Lots of talk of Houston trying to make a play for DH12. They're trying to complete trades with the Raptors and Kings which would give them 2 top 10 picks. They'd then offer them to Orlando.

I think something like that makes sense from Orlando's point of view. If they trade Howard for established player(s), they're never going to get back the same value. So it's hard to see them being more than a mediocre team by going that route. I think if they're losing Howard, they should rebuild from scratch. They'll have a new GM, and new coach, might as well go the whole hog, and get draft picks.

Paully D

padraig_f wrote: »

The Bulls have some interesting decisions to make. If Rose hadn't got injured, they'd be only making minor changes around the fringes, but with Rose not expected back before the All-Star break, and probably won't be back to his old form until the following season, realistically next season is a semi-transitional season. So that's why there's some talk about the Bulls trading into the lottery positions (maybe the Warriors #7 pick, or Kings #5 pick).

Even though Deng is a valuable player for the Bulls, Doug Thonus makes a decent case why, with the new CBA and Rose's injury, trading him is an option:
The new NBA model and why Chicago should consider trading Luol Deng

He makes $13m next year when the Bulls probably won't be contending for a championship, so you look at investing more in the future.

This is an unfortunate thing with the new CBA, it becomes hard for teams that have done everything right in the draft (like the Bulls or the Thunder) to keep their teams together. The Bulls hands are forced because Omer Asik is a restricted free agent this year and Taj Gibson is next year, who they want to keep.

Under the old CBA you'd pay a bit of luxury tax if you're a contender, but the luxury tax penalties are much harsher now and it also reduces your mid-level exception if you're paying luxury tax. It says a lot that traditional big spenders like the Mavs and Lakers have been shedding salary.

Pretty interesting draft coming up. With the lockout last year, probably a number of college players stayed out of last year's draft, making this year's draft stronger. And then you have the new CBA making those rookie salaries look more attractive.

I always enjoy your posts Padraig, especially when it comes to the Bulls. I'd be interested in hearing your opinion on what you think the Bulls should do?

I've read that there's a lot of animosity between Deng and the front office as they want him to forgoe the Olympics and get surgery right away, but he has refused to do so as he wants to play in London first. Also, some reporters close to Golden State say they don't really want to take Deng as they want health first and foremost but I'm not sure on this. I think they'd take him.

I've basically written next year off already. The east is weak IMO and I think we'll still make the playoffs, but I'm braced for an early exit from the similar to the season just past, except we'll be a much lower seed this time around and it will be expected.

What I think the team might do is somehow get a trade for #7 pick done, use this season as a transitional season giving younger players such as aforementioned draft pick, Jimmy Butler etc a lot more game time, don't rush D Rose back and make sure he's 100%, accept the fact we'll lose more games which in turn means we'll have a higher draft pick next year, and then get ready to try and mount a challenge in 2013/2014!

GoldFour4

The Problem with the east is that its not a strong division from last place to no.4 seed. After that its tough to win.

Chicago's biggest problem is Carlos Boozer. He hasn't been at all effective for the Bulls and is sitting there on a big contract. Nobody will be willing to take on that contract so the bulls are left to try and make a move elseware. That means trading an all star in Deng.

I worry for the team though. I think if they are going to be in a title it has to be in the next three years. Miami is getting better and better as its salary cap gets lower with years. If they manage to beat the heat then they have to face OKC and its team of maturing superstars.

Its a weird situation. I find it tough to pinpoint the exact area where they need to improve, obviously 2 guard needs an improvement but most teams could say that.

Paully D

malachyscott wrote: »

The Problem with the east is that its not a strong division from last place to no.4 seed. After that its tough to win.

Chicago's biggest problem is Carlos Boozer. He hasn't been at all effective for the Bulls and is sitting there on a big contract. Nobody will be willing to take on that contract so the bulls are left to try and make a move elseware. That means trading an all star in Deng.

I worry for the team though. I think if they are going to be in a title it has to be in the next three years. Miami is getting better and better as its salary cap gets lower with years. If they manage to beat the heat then they have to face OKC and its team of maturing superstars.

Its a weird situation. I find it tough to pinpoint the exact area where they need to improve, obviously 2 guard needs an improvement but most teams could say that.

Agree with you 100% on Boozer, Malachy. With Rose and Deng out I'm hoping that Boozer can grab the bull by the horns (no pun intended) and shoulder the offensive load. He was 3rd highest scorer on the team last season averaging 15 PPG and shooting 54% so will be looked to to become the primary scorer with the aforementioned players out. Thibs is going to have to give him every opportunity to utilize his game and as one fan put it if nothing else a good season might see him have a slight chance of returning from the ''land of the untradable contracts''.

I'm still very disappointed about last season. I think we had a great opportunity with everything in place to make a strong go at the title. Breezed through the regular season and had beaten Miami twice, cruising to a game 1 playoff win against the 76ers playing great D, Rip had an excellent game, Rose had his best game since coming back from injury, and then bang - Rose got injured with 1 minute left in game 1 and the team struggled to recover. I know it's impossible to say but if Rose hadn't gone down with that injury I just can't help but think of what might have been

Anyway, no point dwelling on the past I suppose!

padraig_f

Paully D wrote: »

I always enjoy your posts Padraig, especially when it comes to the Bulls. I'd be interested in hearing your opinion on what you think the Bulls should do?

I've read that there's a lot of animosity between Deng and the front office as they want him to forgoe the Olympics and get surgery right away, but he has refused to do so as he wants to play in London first. Also, some reporters close to Golden State say they don't really want to take Deng as they want health first and foremost but I'm not sure on this. I think they'd take him.

I've basically written next year off already. The east is weak IMO and I think we'll still make the playoffs, but I'm braced for an early exit from the similar to the season just past, except we'll be a much lower seed this time around and it will be expected.

What I think the team might do is somehow get a trade for #7 pick done, use this season as a transitional season giving younger players such as aforementioned draft pick, Jimmy Butler etc a lot more game time, don't rush D Rose back and make sure he's 100%, accept the fact we'll lose more games which in turn means we'll have a higher draft pick next year, and then get ready to try and mount a challenge in 2013/2014!

Pretty mixed feelings, I'd say gun to my head, don't do the trade. He's such a useful player, playing the best ball of his career before the hand injury, and one of the best defenders on Lebron. While even with lottery players, there are no guarantees.

But I can see the other side as well. Let's say next year it'll be hard to win a championship. You have him for 2013/14, but at the end of that year he's an unrestricted free agent and can walk for nothing (and probably does, because it could be hard for the Bulls to match what another team will pay him). You weigh that against having a potentially very good player for 4 or 5 years on a cheap salary.

I think a trade makes the team worse in the short term, and potentially better in the longer term. When you have a team that's close to championship level, I think you should go for it. But Rose is only 23 so you also have to give consideration to the longer term.

It also comes down to how well you like those players in the #5-#10 range of the draft. If you really think one is a great fit, you're more likely to do the trade. I don't know the players that well, but looking at Chad Ford's mock draft, there are a few potential fits:

#3 Bradley Beal 6-5 SG, Florida
#4 Harrison Barnes 6-8 SF, North Carolina
#5 Michael Kidd-Gilchrist 6-8 SF, Kentucky
#8 Dion Waiters 6-4 SG, Syracuse
#10 Austin Rivers 6-5 SG, Duke

The Bulls scouting department has done a pretty good job in recent years. If they do make the trade, it must be because they really like one of the players.

GoldFour4

Brandon Roy apparently coming out of retirement to play for the Timberwolves who will give him a 2 year deal. I really hope it works out for him

SoulGuy

malachyscott wrote: »

Brandon Roy apparently coming out of retirement to play for the Timberwolves who will give him a 2 year deal. I really hope it works out for him

Good news alright if it happens. That Blazers comeback against the Mavericks in the Playoffs a couple of seasons ago when he hit practically every shot of his down the stretch is one of my favourite postseason moments in recent years.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YwqEyEjyDig

Nuri Sahin

Ray Allen to Miami looking possible. Probably to replace Miller I imagine.



http://espn.go.com/blog/boston/celtics/post/_/id/4695557/sources-mutual-interest-between-allen-heat