World Championship Discussion

cherryghost

Todays the draw day! Video stream of the radio show is here. Draw is going to take place shortly. Post will be updated with the draws as it goes along.

Tournament starts on Saturday on the BBC.

Draw:

Mark Allen vs Cao Yupeng
Neil Robertson vs Ken Doherty
Stuart Bingham vs Stephen Hendry
Mark Selby vs Barry Hawkins
Shaun Murphy vs Jamie Jones
Stephen Maguire vs Luka Brecel
Judd Trump vs Dominic Dale
Graeme Dott vs Joe Perry
Ding Junhui vs Ryan Day
Martin Gould vs David Gilbert
Mark Williams vs Liu Chang
Stephen Lee vs Andrew Higginson
Ronnie O' Sullivan vs Peter Ebdon
Matthew Stephens vs Marco Fu
Ali Carter vs Mark Davis
John Higgins vs Liang Wenbo

Pighead

Neil Robertson for Ken. Couldn't have been much tougher. Hopefully he can make some sort of match out of it.

cherryghost

O'Sullivan vs Ebdon must be the oddest pairing. Can't wait to see if Ronnie's mentality can cope with Ebdons style of play over a long period of time

Pighead

A lot is made of Ronnie's inability to cope with Ebdon's slow game over the longer match format but Ebdon has only ever beaten Ronnie twice in matches that were at least best of 11.

Ronnie leads ebbo 9-5 altogether and 7-2 in matches that were best of 11 or more. Also Ronnie has won his last four matches against Ebdon, all pretty comfortably.

cherryghost

Interesting to know that over a long period of time Ronnie copes well. Cheers for that Pighead. Still very much interested in it though. Ebdon played pretty well leading up to this week.

Here's the matchplay times to the best of my knowledge. Will do the rest later:

Saturday 10am:
1. John Higgins vs Liang Wenbo
11. Martin Gould vs David Gilbert

Saturday 2.30pm:
2. Stuart Bingham vs Stephen Hendry
12. Neil Roberston vs Ken Doherty

Saturday 7pm:
1. John Higgins vs Liang Wenbo
14. Mark Allen vs Cao Yupeng

---

Sunday 10am:
4. Stephen Maguire vs Luka Brecel
11. Martin Gould vs David Gilbert

Sunday 2.30pm:
5. Shaun Murphy vs Jamie Jones
14. Mark Allen vs Cao Yupeng

Sunday 7pm:
2. Stuart Bingham vs Stephen Hendry
12. Neil Roberston vs Ken Doherty

---

Monday 10am:
4. Stephen Maguire vs Luka Brecel
15. Matthew Stephens vs Marco Fu

Monday 2.30pm:
5. Shaun Murphy vs Jamie Jones
10. Ronnie O'Sullivan vs Peter Ebdon

Monday 7pm:
6. Stephen Lee vs Andrew Higginson
15. Matthew Stephens vs Marco Fu

---

Tuesday 10am:
8. Judd Trump vs Dominic Dale
13. Ding Junhui vs Ryan Day

Tuesday 2.30pm:
3. Graeme Dott vs Joe Perry
10. Ronnie O'Sullivan vs Peter Ebdon

Tuesday 7pm:
6. Stephen Lee vs Andrew Higginson
16. Mark Selby vs Barry Hawkins

---

Wednesday 10am:
3. Graeme Dott vs Joe Perry
13. Ding Junhui vs Ryan Day

Wednesday 2.30pm:
8. Judd Trump vs Dominic Dale
9. Mark Williams vs Liu Chang

Wednesday 7pm:
7. Ali Carter vs Mark Davis
16. Mark Selby vs Barry Hawkins

---

Thursday AM:
No Games

Thursday 1pm:
7. Ali Carter vs Mark Davis
22. Winners of Match 11 & 12

Thursday 7pm:
18. Winners of Match 3 & 4
9. Mark Williams vs Liu Chang

Pighead

Nice one. Ken's match starts on Sunday evening. I love watching snooker on a Sunday evening.

zack01

Pighead wrote: »

A lot is made of Ronnie's inability to cope with Ebdon's slow game over the longer match format but Ebdon has only ever beaten Ronnie twice in matches that were at least best of 11.

Ronnie leads ebbo 9-5 altogether and 7-2 in matches that were best of 11 or more. Also Ronnie has won his last four matches against Ebdon, all pretty comfortably.

Ebdon will grind it out against Ronnie that is for certain, it's the only way to get to O'Sullivan, Ronnie will certainly know that going into the match, it was a diffierent story the last time they met in the Cruicble when Ebdon adopted the snail like approach during their third session. What was it? 12mins for a 22 break ???

cherryghost

There's no evening sessions for that match either. Will be interesting to see whether they interfere with the evening sessions. Definitely could happen.

Pighead

Actually those head to head stats I posted earlier on between Ronnie and Ebdon, only go as far back as 2000. So I'm not sure what their complete record against each other is.

zack01

Here is the revised draw according to the seedings, i know the commentators always say the tournamnet really doesnt begin until the second round but with so many high quality players qualifying it very well could be one of the best championships in years.


John Higgins v Liang Wenbo
 
Stuart Bingham v Stephen Hendry
 
Graeme Dott v Joe Perry
 
Stephen Maguire v Luca Brecel
 
Shaun Murphy v Jamie Jones
 
Stephen Lee v Andrew Higginson
 
Ali Carter v Mark Davis
 
Judd Trump v Dominic Dale
 
Mark Williams v Liu Chang
 
Ronnie O'Sullivan v Peter Ebdon
 
Martin Gould v Dave Gilbert
 
Neil Robertson v Ken Doherty
 
Ding Junhui v Ryan Day
 
Mark Allen v Cao Yupeng
 
Matthew Stevens v Marco Fu
 
Mark Selby v Barry Hawkins


So who do you fancy?

I'm going with Robertson.

Pighead

It's really really difficult to pick a winner as it has been for the last few years. The era of one or two men dominating the sport has long gone at this stage.

You could quite easily make a case for any of the following to win it.
Trump, O'Sullivan, Selby, Robertson, Higgins, Selby, Junhui, Murphy, Allen, Maguire and Williams.

And a case can also be made for in form Stephen Lee and Graham Dott who seems to come alive here every year.

So that's almost half the field who have realistic chances of winning.

I see if Ronnie wins against Ebdon he will most likely be up against Williams. Looks a hard draw on paper but O'Sullivan has a ridiculously good record against him. In their last 18 meetings he's 16-2 up which doesn't make any sense to me but there you go. O'Sullivan must be in Williams head at this stage.

For what it's worth here's how I see the second round draw shaping up.

Higgins V Bingham
Dott V Maguire
Murphy V Lee
Davis V Trump
Williams V O'Sullivan
Gould V Robertson
Ding V Allen
Fu V Selby.

So I'm thinking maybe Mark Davis and Marco Fu causing mini shocks against Ali Carter and Matthew Stevens with everything else going to seed.

If the draw is laid out like I think it is I'm going for a semi final line up of:

Maguire V Trump
Robertson V Allen

Gonna pick Allen and Trump final. Allen to win.

Pure speculation and guesswork though. As I said it's ridiculously open this year. Just looking forward to some great snooker. Can't wait.

cherryghost

If Stephen Lee doesn't fall under pressure I reckon he's in with a good shout. He's played very well this season. Robertson has the Masters under the belt but he hasn't played up to his usual high standards in the last few tournaments in my opinion. He needs to up the ante if he has any chance this year.

zack01

cherryghost wrote: »

If Stephen Lee doesn't fall under pressure I reckon he's in with a good shout. He's played very well this season. Robertson has the Masters under the belt but he hasn't played up to his usual high standards in the last few tournaments in my opinion. He needs to up the ante if he has any chance this year.

As much as i like watching Lee i believe the 17 days of mental and physical strength needed to win the championships are beyond him, if you look back on previous championships it's not always the guy who plays the best wins, the greatest example of that being last years winner John Higgins. Throughout the tournament he never really played anyway near the standard he did to win his previous three other world crowns but when it came to the business end of matches he just somehow digs in and gets the result needed. Even during the final he never really looked like winning and once Trump began to buckle and miss a shot too many Higgins and his vast experience came to the fore.

I think a surprise winner is unlikely and for the eventual champion we should look no further than any of the past champions.
On the other hand Trumps run last year to the final as a qualifier was great entertainment, it's a pity Luca Brecel did'nt draw Higgins in the first round, knock the defending champion out as Trump did to Robertson and go on a run, imagine the publicity the tournament would get then!

clanard

Yeah some interesting matches and very hard to pick a outright winner.
Could Ronnie prove to be great value 7-1, surely if he gets over Edbon and Williams he will be the man to beat.
Its just you never know with Ronnie what your gonna get.

cherryghost

Bookies have Judd down as favourite to win. Dangerous bet imo. :P Some good odds down the field

Judd Trump 5/1
Ronnie O'Sullivan 7/1
Neil Robertson 15/2
John Higgins 8/1
Mark Selby 9/1
Ding Junhui 11/1
Shaun Murphy 12/1
Mark Allen 14/1
Stephen Maguire 14/1
Mark Williams 20/1
Stephen Lee 25/1
Graeme Dott 40/1
Stuart Bingham 66/1
Matthew Stevens 66/1
Ali Carter 66/1
Peter Ebdon 66/1
Marco Fu 80/1
Ryan Day 100/1
Stephen Hendry 100/1
Barry Hawkins 100/1
Andrew Higginson 100/1
Martin Gould 100/1
Joe Perry 125/1
David Gilbert 125/1
Ken Doherty 150/1
Mark Davis 150/1
Liang Wenbo 150/1
Dominic Dale 150/1
Luca Brecel 150/1
Jamie Jones 150/1
Liu Chuang 175/1
Cao Yupeng 175/1

clanard

So who does everyone fancy, only one player each, each way if u want.
Bit of crack, I will go for Ronnie anyway.

IsMiseJoe

Looking forward to the Snooker this year. Selby's year I reckon.

cherryghost

Put a tenner down on Mark Allen and Stephen Lee. Come one of yee, don't let me down

califano

Pity the Ferginator didnt make it. Has had a rough time of it lately getting a kick in the teeth being beaten in the wildcard in the China open followed by making a rd1 exit in the ptc before then running into a Gilbert who clicked into top form recently.

IsMiseJoe

Mark Allen will be there or thereabouts

cherryghost

Ken needs to beat Robertson to stay in the top 32 at the moment. With the likes of Ryan Day, Jamie Jones and Marco Fu qualifying it hasn't really helped him. If Ken actually won, he'd be knocking on the top 16.

Judd Trump could be world number one if he were to win, and Selby gets knocked out of the first round.

Hendry could see himself back in the top 16 if he were to progress to the semi finals and O' Sullivan loses in the first round.

As its the end of season after the world championship, the points from 09/10 are nullified. This means disaster for Ali Carter who could drop down as far as 21st unless he finishes with at LEAST a quarter final appearance.

A quarter final appearance by Ebdon could see him in the elite 16 again.

If Luca Brecel were to win, his ranking would shoot from 82nd to the top 50.

Dominic Dale would be knocking on the top 16 too with a quarter final appearance.

If Marco Fu just progresses to the last 16 he would jump almost 5 places.

If Mark Davis progresses to the quarter finals he could be in the elite 16.

Depending on how the chinese perform this tournament, Liang Wenbo could be in the top 32.


Of course this is all subjective and very very rough, but still some very interesting shifts could be in place. A number of Chinese players are moving rapidly up the field.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Snooker_world_ranking_points_2011/2012

IsMiseJoe

Good post!!

risteard7

Lads i heard from a good source that selby has a bad neck injury and
is struggling with it. It was touch and go if he was going to pull out!

Just incase anybody was having a bet or anything. Dont be surprised if hawkins beats him

cherryghost

Yep he pulled out of the China Open citing a bad neck so I reckon over a long period this could have a physical affect on the man.

zack01

He wrote on his blog that he was considering withdrawing from the worlds citing the same neck injury that forced him to pull out of the China Open. In my opinion I think Selby is struggling so badly to find any form that this may be some sort of excuse should he fail to do well in the championships.
I think Selby may have missed the boat in terms of winning world championships, he should have by now stamped his authority on the game by winning more than he has actually done.
Yes he is a double Masters champion and the current world number one, number one due to a lot of quarter final appearances but nothing more in the last season, but I feel the standard now is at an all time high and he really hasn't produced anything quite near it in nearly two seasons now.
He will probably beat Hawkins in the first round but for him to come out of that bottom half of the draw will take something special.

giant_midget

I have money on the outspoken Nordie :pac: I think he has a great chance, Also put a few quid on Williams and small money e/w on Brecel (worth a punt i reckon)

Now...How to think of a plan to take total control of our tv to watch all this snooker for 2 weeks, It aint going to be easy!

Silvio.Dante

Mark Allen I reckon...:)

zack01

giant_midget wrote: »

I have money on the outspoken Nordie :pac: I think he has a great chance, Also put a few quid on Williams and small money e/w on Brecel (worth a punt i reckon)

Now...How to think of a plan to take total control of our tv to watch all this snooker for 2 weeks, It aint going to be easy!

Williams might struggle especially if both he and O'Sullivan win their first round matches as they will meet then and Williams does'nt exactly have the best of records against Ronnie.

Looking at the draw and you have to really consider Ebdon as a runner if he was to beat O'Sullivan in the first round, he would probably go on to play my pick Robertson in the quarters, that would be a tough one to call, one thing is for sure Ebdon has the mental strength to go the 17 days even if all his matches are final frame deciders, he revels in that, and at 66/1 in some bookies i may just have a punt on him.

risteard7

Silvio.Dante wrote: »

Mark Allen I reckon...:)

I dont think Allen has the temperament to win a world championship. I
think his attitude can be a bit like ronnie's at times except ronnie is a
gifted player and world class, i dont think allen is that

Backstreet Moyes

risteard7 wrote: »

I dont think Allen has the temperament to win a world championship. I think his attitude can be a bit like ronnie's at times except ronnie is a gifted player and world class, i dont think allen is that

My god you dont think Mark Allen is gifted and world class. He is an unbelievable player and in the top 16 not being as good as Ronnie doesnt mean is not world class. He is an exceptional break builder and one of the most naturally talented players around.

Im backing Mark Allen to win it outright in good form and love watching him play. My worry about him is he seems to miss an easy ball alot of the time to get over the line in his matches. Would love to see him win it he is a great character.

Backstreet Moyes

zack01 wrote: »

He wrote on his blog that he was considering withdrawing from the worlds citing the same neck injury that forced him to pull out of the China Open. In my opinion I think Selby is struggling so badly to find any form that this may be some sort of excuse should he fail to do well in the championships. I think Selby may have missed the boat in terms of winning world championships, he should have by now stamped his authority on the game by winning more than he has actually done. Yes he is a double Masters champion and the current world number one, number one due to a lot of quarter final appearances but nothing more in the last season, but I feel the standard now is at an all time high and he really hasn't produced anything quite near it in nearly two seasons now. He will probably beat Hawkins in the first round but for him to come out of that bottom half of the draw will take something special.

How can you say he may have missed the boat he is in his twenties. He has plenty of years ahead of him and is the No.1 player in the world. Find that a bizarre thing to say. Not the greatest player to watch but he is a class act. He has struggled a bit and the standard has got better but he is still ranked as the best player in the world.