Rodeo's Racing Log

rodeo1985

3.20 Ripon
Ertikaan - 0.5 pts e/w @ 20-1 (bet365)
Lose
Spinatrix - 0.5 pts win @ 10.5 (betfair)
Spinatrix - 0.5 pts place @ 3.3 (betfair)
Place

Spinatrix got a great break and veered right across the field to take up the running on the rail, with Ertikaan sitting nicely in behind him. Until about a furlong to go Ertikaan looked to be travelling best of all but his lack of fitness told in the home stretch where he quickly faded to finish 7th. Spinatrix got hard to work in the final furlong but was just pipped a length by Thunderball, who switched outside to the seemingly quicker ground to steal a nice win.

+0.15 for the day
Running total +28.26

rodeo1985

4.40 Perth
Trustan Times - 1pt win @ 5-1 (Lads)

This 7 runner field is a tough one to call, and I think serious claims can be made for the top 4 in the market, but at the prices I'll have a small punt on Trustan Times. While the market leader Sustainability has 4 wins out of 4 handicap starts on GS to Heavy ground, they've been in moderate enough company and he comes here tomorrow facing a 9lb penalty, his biggest yet, and much better competition. Lady Bluesky ran brilliantly in her last two races on sort ground, and was out clear to win last time out when unseating Ewan Whillans at the last, however she comes here today stepping up in trip by 4f and with a 7lb penalty. Conquisto has been improving steadily all year and ran a cracker in a Class 2 Handicap Hurdle over 2miles during this years Aintree festival, only to be beaten by Lifestyle trained by the very much in form Nicky Henderson. However he's another one stepping up in trip and facing a 4lb penalty, and he's also found it difficult on the softer ground in the past.

Trustan Times has proven himself a formidable contender over both hurdles and fences, however his jumping wasn't as fluent over the larger obstacles and the decision to return him to hurdles is one I like. He has run over hurdles on 4 occasions in the past, a C4 Novices Hurdle over 2m4f on soft ground finishing 1/17, which he followed up with great run to finish 2/17 in a C3 Novices Hurdle over 2m6f on good to soft ground. He was then moved into chases for his next 4 races, and re-introduced to hurdles in March of this year where he finished 2/11 in a C3 Handicap Hurdle over 2m4f on good ground, and followed this up with a huge run in a C1 G3 Handicap Hurdle in this years Aintree festival where he finished 3/21 over 3m1f on good to soft ground. He's only been raised 6lbs for those two above average runs which is too low in my book, and he comes here tomorrow back down in trip to a distance he's excelled at with his form figures reading 221 (all in big fields), on ground he's proven comfortable on (2 of his 3 wins have been on soft ground). This 6 year old seems to be improving every time he runs and with a minimal raise in weights I feel 5-1 is a generous price.

rodeo1985

Just saw bet365 opened their Market for the 535 in Doncaster tomorrow, I'll be backing Ertikaan 1pt e/w @12-1. Will do a write up later on, no time at the moment.

rodeo1985

5.35 Doncaster
Ertikaan 1pt e/w @ 12-1

I backed this horse 8 days ago after a long break so have a look at that write up for reasoning. He ran a great race over 5f that day and tired out in the last furlong. He's dropped to 5f today, will have definitely come on for the run 8 days ago, and is drawn on the stand side rail today which will definitely suit. He's also been dropped 3lbs and retains the 7lb claimer he had on board last time out. 12-1 was a massive price in my opinion and he's in to about 6/1 - 7/1 this morning. The only concern I'd have is the heavy ground, but the gamble on him would suggest to me he'll be ok on it. I wouldn't back any lower than 4s.

rodeo1985

4.40 Perth
Trustan Times - 1pt win @ 5-1 (Lads)
Lose
5.35 Doncaster
Ertikaan 1pt e/w @ 12-1
Lose

Running total +25.26

5.00 Leicester
Daruband .75pt @ 12-1 (PP)
Hurricane Lady .75pt @ 12-1 (PP)

Light Burst comes here today looking for a hat-trick after scoring in his previous two runs at Brighton and Wolverhampton, but a significant 6lb penalty and a much more testing track would put me off backing this animal at the 7-2 on offer. Of the other market leaders I think Dynastic ridden by Pat Dobbs looks the most dangerous. Dobbs has an impressive record at the track, and Hannon is second in the courses top trainers list. He is coming here today off the back of a win over the 8f distance, however the field in that race was weak and the win may have flattered him slightly. With a 2lb rise and a short enough price of 13/2, I've had to put a line through this one as I think he's priced about right, but I wouldn't put anyone off a punt.

I can't decide which of the two I'm left with is the right one to back, so I've gone with both, each at a price of 12-1. Daruband's only career win came in June of this year in a C5 8f race around the galloping Newmarket track. He ran on well that day in the final furlong to take the race by 1 1/2 lengths off a mark of 73. He took a step up in class after this win and hasn't scored (or come close to scoring) in his next 3 starts. However the move to the Michael Ball yard is something to be optimistic about, as the trainers record at this track is good. He's dropped down again to C5 today for his new yard debut, and I find it more than interesting that the courses top jockey Jamie Spencer has been booked to take the ride. At 12's I think he's good value.

Similarly, Hurricane Lady has been relegated in class today having run in C3 and C4 races on her 7 previous turf outings. She put in a few respectable performances when running off a reasonable mark, and her 3rd LTO in an 8f C4 on a galloping track where she finished only 1 1/2 lengths off the winner is an encouraging sign. The handicapper hasn't penalized her for this decent run. Prior to these runs she had 2 successive wins in C5 8f handicaps off marks of 68 and 72, one over today's C&D. She runs today off 74 and the 12-1 on offer seems big.

Clinto22

you're back...

"rodeo, rodeo where were't though rodeo?!"

rodeo1985

5.00 Leicester
Daruband .75pt @ 12-1 (PP)
Lose
Hurricane Lady .75pt @ 12-1 (PP)
Win

The gamble of the race Daruband settled into mid division early on and looked to be going well for the first 5f, with Hurricane Lady comfortably bringing up the rear. As the race went on however, the soft ground seemed to tire out Daruband and he soon faded out of contention, although not out of my notebook, and I'll be keeping an eye on him when he runs on better ground. Thankfully Hurricane Lady crept forward with ease to join Ancient Greece and Buckland at the front with about 2f to go. In the final furlong she kicked on well, although drifting into the rail a little, to win by 2 1/2 lengths. West End Lad finished well to steal 3rd.

It's a pity about the withdrawls with 7 of the entered 14 horses pulling out early in the day. The softening ground suited Hurricane Lady and I think she would have performed just as well with the extra competition. The rule 4 slashed the price to 5.4-1, but a win is a win so I'll not complain too much

+3.3 for the day

Running total +28.56

rodeo1985

Clinto22 wrote: »

you're back...

"rodeo, rodeo where were't though rodeo?!"

Thought I could pack the aul gamblin in buddy and take up a wholesome hobby that my Ma would be proud of! So I chanced abita baking and nearly burned the house down, tried to learn an instrument but the neighbours tried evictin me, learned a few magic tricks but got a few slaps when I couldn't make lads watches reappear! So back to the hee-hawws it is Sure wasn't it ur mate who said To thine own self be true, and it must follow, as the night the day, thou canst not then be false to any man.

rodeo1985

5.20 Newton Abbot
A Nun With A Gun .5pt e/w @ 5-1 (bet365)


Market leader Cerveza Dinero has travelled to the UK in search of a win over hurdles and was very close to getting it yesterday at Uttoxeter when finishing 2/14 over 2m3.5f. He's entered again here today but for a number of reasons I think he might have some difficulty travelling back to Ireland with a gold medal. His best results have been on good/good-to-firm ground, but tomorrows going is being reported as soft with rain due. Being the last of 7 races, the ground will not be to his liking. Nor will the short break since his last race. The horse is away from home and his familiar surroundings which won't aid his preperation, not to mention the toll yesterdays race has taken on him, and the fact he's carrying top weight, all of which I think are factors that could see the horse tire twords the end of the race. The 7/2 on offer is certainly too short for me.

I've gone with joint 2nd fav, A Nun With A Gun. Her runs are few and far between but when Alan Jones does get her to track she rarely disappoints. Her form over hurdles reads 21, with both being run on soft ground. She's placed in each of her other 4 starts. She was only beaten by 1/2 a length last time out and with her winning jockey Tom O'Brien taking the mount again tomorrow it's hard to see her out of the first 3 if she gets the extra few furlongs. Worth noting that Tom O'Brien has an excellent record at this track, and there has been some early money for A Nun With A Gun with her price shortening this evening from 6's to 5's, which I still believe is decent value.

rodeo1985

5.20 Newton Abbot
A Nun With A Gun .5pt e/w @ 5-1 (bet365)
Lose

For a horse thats been off the track for almost 2 years, Romance Dance ran an absolute cracker to take the spoils. She looked the winner all over with two left to jump but understandably tired out when pushed and she just did enough to hold off the strong finishing Kashabelle by 1/2 a length. My selection sat twords the back and faded about 4 out when the leaders kicked on.

-1 for the day

Running total +27.56

rodeo1985

4.15 Goodwood
Rosslyn Castle .75pt e/w @ 9-1 (William Hills)

Claims can be made for plenty of the runners here with market leader's Cardinal Walter and Energy certainly coming here with the best recent form. Cardinal Walter won his first 12f race on soft ground in June and has gone on to run respectably in 3 C2 handicaps since. His rating has risen steadily from 85 to 89 however, and although more suited to todays going, I don't think he's worth backing at 7-2 with some other serious contenders in the race at bigger prices. Energy has won his last 3 starts (12f, 11f, 12f) and is trained by the courses second top trainer. However these races were of a lower class and on firmer ground, and he comes here today carrying a 6lb penalty so has it all to do. Another one I'd sooner put a line through at a price of 9-2.

James Doyle's mount is the one who stands out for me. Rosslyn Castle would appear to be an improving young horse, having won a maiden over 10f in April, and elegantly following this win up with another, in a 12f handicap around Chester in May. He proved that day that he goes well on soft ground, but was however given a sharp rise from 87 to 96 after his second win. He lost his way abit after that race running a shocker when finishing last of 7 in Haydock in August, but did show signs of improvement when running respectably coming 7th in a C1 race around Chester earlier this month. Unfortunately the handicapper hasn't taken much notice of the two indifferent runs and his rating today stands at 95, but being only 3yo there's plenty of room for improvement, with double winning jockey James Doyle back in the saddle and with the ground softening I think he's worth a punt at a big price of 9-1.

rodeo1985

1.40 Market Rasen
Faith Jicaro - 1pt win @ 11/2 (betvictor)

You have to like the look of the favourite, Favours Brave, in this race, and it’s tricky to see past him with the courses top jockey Tony McCoy taking the ride. The front runner arrives here on the back of 2 solid performances, one win and one second in 2m1f C4 handicap hurdles around Market Rasen, he’ll like the good ground, and he’s proven before that he can get the trip. He’s raised 4lbs since his second place the last day, which is 10lbs more than his winning mark. In my opinion 11/4 represents good value, but at double the price I’d sooner put my money on Faith Jicaro at 11/2.

This mare has just begun her hurdling career having spent the previous 3 years running longer distance flat races, at which she didnt have much success. Her form over timber reads 213 and she has taken well to jumping. Her 3 runs have been on good ground, her win in a C5 maiden hurdle over 2miles around worcester, and her two placings in C4 novice hurdle races.

3.55 Market Rasen
Misstree Pitcher - 1pt win @ 9.0 (betfair)

This is a tricky one to predict with plenty making their debut over fences, including the well treated favourite My Mate Vinny trained by course expert Jonjo O’Neill. He won a C5 handicap hurdle over 3 miles last week off the same mark he runs at today, and he is a justified favourite. However his lack of experience over fences makes him hard to back for me at 10/3.

Another fences debutant is Misstree Pitcher, who has 4 very solid hurdle runs under her belt. Not only that she has run 4 PTP races, winning 2 of them, so the switch to fences won’t be a problem. Her 4 hurdle runs have all come on good/good-to-firm ground, all C4 races and all between 2.5-3miles. She was only out of the places on her first race where she finished 4th of 12. She seems well treated running off 98, only 1lb more than the race she finished 2nd in earlier this month over 2 ½ miles. The further trip tomorrow will suit her better and I don’t think she’ll be too far off. 8-1 seems generous to me.

rodeo1985

4.15 Goodwood
Rosslyn Castle .75pt e/w @ 9-1 (William Hills)
Lose

Too nackered to watch it again and do a write up, but was never in it.

-1.5 for the day

Running total +26.06

rodeo1985

2.05 Uttoxeter
Murcar - 1pt win @ 7-1 (bet365)

Murcar has a good chance to strick twice in a week, competing over the same distance and on a similar track as his win 7 days ago. Although risen 6lbs in the weights, he faces a modest enough field tomorrow. He came 2/11 off 112 in a similar race in fontwell back in feb 2011, only beaten by the 133 rated Marodima. He followed up that run over an unsuited trip of 2miles finishing off his 2011 campaign with 4th place of 6.

After an 18 month break and joining a new yard, he was sent out over hurdles for a run in mid Oct, which served its purpose as proved by his win 7 days ago. I'm hopeful that the upward curve will continue, and I'm willing to take a small punt at 7-1.

rodeo1985

1.45 Wetherby
Arctic Echo 1pt e/w @ 16-1 (PP)

Arctic Echo started this seasons jumps campaign with a win over fences, over 2m4, having won his previous chase in Apr2011 over 3m1f in a C4 handicap. He was turned out over fences again last week but fell at the first, and has been put out over timber very quickly, which would indicate to me that trainer Rob Summers fancies him over the distance and is mitigating the risk of falling by sending him over hurdles.

His mark over hurdles is generous at 105, and his last outing at this mark saw him finish 2nd of 9 over tomorrows C+D. Charlie Wallis, who has won on him already this season over fences, takes off another 5 lbs. 16-1 looks like value to me.