Rodeo's Racing Log

MyStubbleItches

Got 6/4, thank you for my Saturday pints Rodeo. Will have one for you.

rodeo1985

No worries mate, enjoy!

rodeo1985

5.45 Newcastle
Jubail - 1pt e/w @ 4-1 (bet365)
Win

Victor Hewgo jumped off in front taking the quintet off at a slow enough gallop with Cool Baranca following in second and Jubail hugging the rail in third. This slow pace continued up to the fourth flight, where Rebel Dancer joined the leader and quickened up the pace. It quickened up again between the 5th and 6th flight, with Jubail always travelling well in behind the leading pair. A full on charge ensued approaching the second last, and all it took was a shake from Jason Maguire between the second last and the last to take Jubail a couple of lengths clear and after a great jump at the last nothing was ever going to catch him. Cool Baranca finished 3-4 lengths behind in second.

Unfortunately due to the withdrawals of Aneyeforaneye and Civil Unrest, there was a 35p to the pound rule 4 deduction. It's a pity they didn't run because neither would have beaten the convincing winner in my opinion.

Nothing jumps off the page at me for tomorrow so I won't be having a bet.

+3.25 pts for the day

Running total +40.95

hawkhead

Rodeo,

Your tips,write ups and post race analysis are fantastic mate. Keep up the good work

rodeo1985

Thanks Hawkhead.

I know I said I wasn't having a bet today, but I've only got around to looking at Stratford this morning and I've picked one out that I think represents value.

3.55 Stratford
Laterly - 1pt e/w @ 8-1 (Ladbrokes, best price guaranteed)

This is a tricky enough race with some serious contenders and the favourite Knight In Purple would have been my selection if I'd looked at the race last night when he was still available at 6-1. He loves the trip and the going which he proved when winning plenty of races last year in conditions similar to today. He came 2nd in a Grade 3 2m race around Haydock last May on good ground, beating last weeks winning selection Caravel that day by 4 lengths off level weights. However overnight market activity has seen his price drop to 3-1, which is too short for me. I'd sooner take an e/w punt on Laterly at 8-1. Since last November, Laterly has been sent out chasing running all of these races on good to soft/soft ground. He's done ok but his jumping has been somewhat questionable and I believe switching him back to the smaller obstacles is a wise move.

His previous run over hurdles saw him run around Aintree off 11-2 in a C3 (0-140) 2m1f race on good ground, and although finishing 6/11, he was right in contention jumping the last and just tired on the long run in. He pulled up in a C1 prior to that where he ran on good to soft ground off a career top mark of 126, but before that he'd won 2 in a row, a C4 novices hurdle over 2m around Southwell on good ground, and a 2m1f C3 (0-135) handicap hurdle around Aintree on good ground, both off a mark of 114 and convincingly winning the latter by 11 lengths after making all.

The 7 year old arrives at Stratford today off a reasonable mark of 123, however 7lb claimer Paul Bohan who works at the Steve Gollings yard can claim 10lbs off this horse today as he is employed by the trainer, a rule which has been introduced in the UK as an incentive for trainers to give prospective riders working for the yard a chance. I know nothing about Bohan, other than that he works for the yard, so I'm assuming he'll know the horse, his likes/dislikes and they will have some kind of rapport, which I'm looking at as a positive. It's always a concern when such an inexperienced rider is on board your selection, but Laterly is and always has been a front runner, who will make all till the 2nd last or last, and either continue powering on home, or tire out and be picked off. However the point I'm making is that it's an easy enough job for Bohan and about the only mistake he can make is going off to quick, which I'm hoping he wont. The reward for this risk is essentially a drop in mark from 123 to 113, which is 1lb lower than when winning a 0-135 C3 around Aintree last May on good ground by 11 lengths, and if he can get around today mistake free and is still out in front approaching the last, he couldn't be too far away when crossing the line.

rodeo1985

3.55 Stratford
Laterly - 1pt e/w @ 8-1

Saturdays don't seem to be my day...

The inexperienced rider was both a blessing and a hindrance. He rode his mount perfectly through the race, out in front where he likes to be, but not too quick either. He was still out in front jumping the second last but when the battle heated up going over the last he looked nervous and I think a more experienced rider would have driven Laterly into a place, but the argument could be made that he wouldn't have been there to be driven if he was 10lbs heavier. I wouldn't for a minute blame Bohan, and all things considered he gave this horse a very good ride, it's just a shame he didn't nick third. The gamble of the race Laudatory deservedly took the honours.

-2 for the day

Running total +38.95

ft9

:eek:

Where has this thread been all my life?

hawkhead

Surprise Vendor who Rodeo tipped on the first page of this thread ran again on Monday and guess what he duly obliged @ 40/1.

Maybe that's why he hasn't updated the past few days, he's still out partying with all his winnings

rodeo1985

4.20 Ludlow
Elsafeer 1.45pts @ 3-1 (PP, Lads)


This looks to be a tight enough race, with 3 or 4 horses all having proper claims. Bin End won a claiming hurdle over C+D here only 8 days ago, and will enjoy being back over the C+D, however the handicapper has adequately penalised the horse for the run, and he steps up to much better company today. Dubai Crest won a better race around Doncaster last December off 118 on good to soft ground, however has run badly twice this year in races which were worse than that, off only a slightly higher mark, and although I don't think he'll find the better ground a problem, running off 120 today I just fear he'll fail to deliver again. Reste Goose may well give a better account of himself on his handicap debut, but he hasn't impressed me in his novices runs to date, and there are far too many question marks hanging over his head to back him at 7/2. Red Skipper is another I can't back at 7/2. He has been a nearly horse so many times in the recent past, coming 2nd again last time out in a 2m 0-125 handicap hurdle around Stratford on good ground, and has received a 3lb penalty for his efforts. He hasn't proven in the past to like a battle at the finish, and I could well see him being afraid to get his head in front approaching the line once more tomorrow. Funnily enough I don't think the longshot of the race Tayarat is without his chance. He won here in Feb (only 4 races ago) over the same distance and going as tomorrow, in a C3 0-125 which is the same as tomorrow's. Hasn't produced much in the 3 races that followed having risen from 97 to 106. He's only down to 104 now following 3 average races, which, along with his inconsistency, concerns me but it'll be no shock to me if he runs a blinder and Alice Mills steers again today as she did over C+D in Feb. The one I've picked out to beat them is top weight Elsafeer.

Elsafeer has proven himself in the past to be a proper talent, winning a 2m Class1 Novices hurdle last October around Kempton on good ground off 119. His form for the 4 races prior to that reads 1212, 3 of them being C4 Novice/Maiden hurdles, one a C5 maiden, all of which were run on good/good to firm ground. After his C1 Novice win he went on to run 10/13 in a C1 handicap hurdle over 2m in Ascot, but the step up in class along with the 10lb rise in his mark proved too much for him on that occasion. He's run twice since returning to the track in Feb this year, a 2m3f C3 handicap hurdle in which he finished 9/10 off a mark of 128, followed up by a 2m4f C1 novices hurdle in which he showed an improved run finishing 10/18 off 125. I think he had excuses in both of those races. The C3 was his first race back after a 4 month break, and he ran it off a mark of 128 on good to soft ground, which aren't his ideal conditions. In my opinion, the trip wasn't optimal either. The company in his next race was alot better than the one prior, and he showed an improved performance again over unideal conditions and trip.

Tomorrow's race see's him drop back to C3 company, drop back to his proven 2m trip, drop down in rating to 123, and is run on his preferred good ground. Richard Johnson back on board for the first time this year is also a positive. After I analysed the race I picked this horse out as my prefered selection, and when I checked the prices I had mixed feelings about the market movement on him already. I was disappointed to have missed the opening price of 5-1 which was available at 4.30 today (it's an awful shame I have to work till 6!), but also encouraged to see that there was market support for him as it's generally a good sign. At 3-1 he's still very close in price to the 7-2 about both the unproven Reste Gosse and the questionable Red Skipper. He's proven to like tomorrows going and trip, and I believe he has improved after both his races this year and has however seen his mark drop to a favourable 123 for a horse of his proven class. At 3-1 I still feel Elsafeer offers value, and would have expected him to be priced up a bit shorter initially by the bookmakers, slightly surprised to see he opened at 5's, will also be surprised to see him go off anything bigger than 5/2. Will round the current bank balance off to a .5 figure by sticking another .45pts on him at 3-1, which is currently still available in Ladbrokes.

rodeo1985

rodeo1985 wrote: »

3.00 Kelso
Suprise Vendor 1pt e/w @ 25-1 (bet365)


Suprise Vendor won on this course in a higher class race in December. Granted off a much lower weight than he's carrying tomorrow, and he hasn't really performed since the raise in weights. But I think he's had his excuses. On his next start after winning he was risen from a mark of 104 to 112, and never really traveled in this much higher class race prior to a fall when running on soft ground. The next was run on heavy ground and the combination of the 11-8 he was carrying along with the heavy ground never suited, and he was pulled up after making a few errors. The going for tomorrows race has been reported as good, which should make the 6 year olds job carrying 11-6 easier than he's found in the races previous, and at a massive 25-1, I'll take an each way punt and hope for an improved run.

Indeed, the long shot proved the bookies wrong. Unfortunately I was boozing all day Sunday so I never looked at the Monday racing, but I was delighted to see that I wasn't completely off the wall when I suggested backing this horse at a big price a week of so before. The race was run on the same course and a slightly longer trip (1 1/2f more). The better conditions and the stronger pace set in this race definitely suited Suprise Vendor, who stayed on much better this time with the quicker trip. The race last week was run at a crawl, which didn't suit our pick one bit when it came to the sprint finish over the final two furlongs, but Monday's race couldn't have gone any better and I'm delighted to see him win. Also delighted for my mate Kev who had a few quid on at 40's well done lad!

Clinto22

wow your mate Kev must be showering you in pints to say thanks!

@hawkhead - Endeavor was also previously tipped by Rodeo and finished second in the race that Surprise Vendor won.

rodeo1985

4.20 Ludlow
Elsafeer 1.45pts @ 3-1 (PP, Lads)
Lose

Well this one was abit of a disaster, and about the only prediction I got right was that he'd go off no better than 5/2. Teyarat took them off at a right clip with the field all within about 7-8 lengths, and Elsafeer sat over his left shoulder until weakening 3 out. With 3 to jump Richard Johnson was working very hard on the favourite, who soon began to fade, with the quick pace and the slight cut in the ground seemingly taking its toll. Red Skipper who I though hadn't the bottle to win the race took it up coming to the second last and was never caught. Shows you what I know!

-1.45 for the day

Running Total +37.5

rodeo1985

4.10 Newton Abbot
Terfel’s Toscar – 2pt win @ 7/2 (bet365)

A horse I backed last time out runs again today in this race – Titch Strider. She ran a really great race last time out and did great to finish second, but she sees a 3lb rise in ratings, and loses a 3lb claimer in the form of Conor O’Farrell so runs 6lbs heavier than the last day. She also runs an extra 2f here today and there’s question marks about the extended trip too, so I’ll oppose this time.

The horse I like in this race is Terfel’s Toscar. This is a horse who has been very lightly raced only running 4 times over hurdles, but with the exception of his introductory race, has always run and performed well. He ran twice last year in March and April, his first being a C4 Novices Hurdle on good to soft ground over 2m4f, and he finished 3/6, however the two horses who beat him that day have gone on to achieve marks of 103 and 115. His next outing was over 2m4 1/2f around Uttoxeter on good ground, this time in a C4 Maiden where he ran a cracker off top weight, finishing second to Mostly Bob who’s now rated 123, and giving him 7lbs that day too.

He was unraced from April 2010 until turning out in Hereford this March in a C5 Novices Handicap Hurdle over 2m 6 1/2f on soft ground, where he finished a very respectable 4/12 for new trainer David Pipe off top weight. He looked to be the horse to beat until he tired with about 2 flights to jump, but he’ll certainly improve for that run. His rating wasn’t touched after the race so he still runs off 95, and the good ground being reported for tomorrow will make the weight burden easier. This race also see’s the more than capable 3lb claimer Conor O’Farrell take the ride, which reduces the burden even more. Good ground will be ideal, but good to soft should be ok too. The racing post have rated this horse 77 and I can’t for the life of me see how. David Pipe’s horses have also been running very well lately, and he’ll be keen to break this lads duck, so I fully expect him to at least place here tomorrow.

1.45 Carlisle
Swift Arrow – 1pt e/w @ 8-1 (bet365)

Swift Arrow makes his handicap debut tomorrow in this Class4 hurdle over 2m1f. He’s lightly raced over hurdles too, having only competed in 2 Class4 Novice races, his first in Ayr in late Jan, and his second in Hexham in mid-March. The run around Ayr was over 2m on soft ground in a Class4 Novices Hurdle, and it saw Swift Arrow finish in 3rd place of 7, 15 lengths behind the 122 and 126 rated winning pair. He went on from this to run 4/11 in Hexham over 2m 1/2f on good ground and only finished 5 ½ lengths behind the eventual winner Hidden off level weights, who has achieved a mark of 117 following that run.

Dr. Flynn is likely to set a decent pace tomorrow which will suit the improving 6 year old, and although the going has been reported as good, the weather forecast predicts rain tonight in Carlisle which will do my selection no harm at all, who will be better off with a slight cut in the ground. Donald McCain’s horses have run brilliantly over the past 14 days, he’s had 31 runners with 12 of these winning and another 6 achieving places. Hopefully that hit rate will increase tomorrow, and I also have my fingers crossed that this horse will continue to improve with the switch to handicaps.

rodeo1985

2.15 Carlisle
Rupert Bear - 1pt e/w @ 10-1

Rupert Bear isn’t an obvious choice for this race if you were to glance at his form, having run less than average in his bumpers and hurdles outings last year. His best finish in a bumper was 8/15, and he ran 6/12 in a C5 Maiden Hurdle last November on good to soft ground around Newcastle, and he pulled up in a C4 2m 6f Novices Hurdle run on the same track over 2m6f in December. That’s the bad news.

Now on to the good news. After pulling up in Newcastle last December he was given a break until reappearing in a C4 Novices Hurdle run over 2m 1/2f around Hexham. His performance that day was nothing short of miraculous given his previous form, and if he’d have kept a bit closer to the leaders earlier on in the race I think he’d have nicked a place. He ran that day off 10st7lbs, and was beaten a short head by Gottany O’S who ran off 10-13 but is rated 129 over hurdles, and about 9 lengths by Guess Again, who ran off 11st but is rated 115. Rupert Bear was only given a mark of 92 following that run, which to me looks too low considering he was only beaten a short head by a horse rated 37 more than he is, having only been given 6lbs by him in that race.

Tomorrows 2m1f race around a similar testing track (although going right handed this time), again on similar ground (good reported, but won’t be surprised to see good to soft) should suit him again. He run’s tomorrow off a favourable enough mark of 92, but carries a 7lb claimer, Miss C Walton, who essentially lowers this mark to 85. I’m not sure who she is, but she’s ridden this horse on all his previous runs, the horse is trained by James Walton (who I’m assuming is a relation) and owned by “Messers F T Walton” (again a family connection no doubt), so she’ll be very familiar with the horse if nothing else. If he can run up to the same standard as his Hexham race 13 days ago, and there’s no reason why he shouldn’t, he should be in with a live chance here.

rodeo1985

ur kiddin me, beaten in a photo tops off a really crap day...! beer time...

rodeo1985

1.45 Carlisle
Swift Arrow – 1pt e/w @ 8-1 (bet365)
Lose

The heavily gambled on Toledo Gold took them off, made all and deservedly won off a feather weight of 10-2. It was a nicely organised gamble and fair play to Maurice Barnes and connections.

However, this is the only one of the 3 I was really disappointed with. I don't think the ride Swift Arrow was given did justice to the horse. From the get go he jumped off right out the back, which I think was mistake number one. He ran out at the back of the field and with about 5 to jump he moved from almost being the back marker to joining Toledo Gold in the lead. In my eyes that was mistake number 2 and the energy expended making that move cost him any chance of being in the shake up. With two to jump the horse was exhausted and traveled back down through the field, ending up in 7th position some 36 lengths behind the winner. The horse was obviously keen to tear off but I'd have much sooner seen him held up around midfield tracking the leaders, and then have him let him go to take his chances between the 2nd last and last.

2.15 Carlisle
Rupert Bear - 1pt e/w @ 10-1
Lose

For some reason the race replay on racking uk is only showing the last 30 seconds or so of this race, and I can't remember too much about it so this will be short and sweet! But I've no complaints about Rupert Bear here, he simply wasn't good enough and Dartford Warbler went on to score again for Sue Smith over C+D. I backed him last time, and did like his chances for yesterdays race, but at 2-1 he was just abit too short for me to back.

4.10 Newton Abbot
Terfel’s Toscar – 2pt win @ 7/2 (bet365)
Lose

Hard luck story of the day goes to Terfel's Toscar!

There was a big gamble on Kayfton Pete who was making his debut for the Michael Scudamore yard after recently moving across from Nikki Evans's, which saw him go off favorite. He took them off and ran about 5 lengths out ahead of the field with Terfel's Toscar heading up the following bunch. It remained like this until after the 8th flight, where it then became a 3 horse race between Kayfton Pete, Terfel's Toscar, and the nicely travelling Fashion Week. When Terfel's Toscar put it up to Kayfton Pete coming to the second last he had no reply, and a great battle ensued to the line between Terfel's Toscar and Fashion Week, with the latter claiming the photo finish win by a nose. I was gutted!

-6pts on the day

Running Total +31.5

rodeo1985

I'll caveat this selection by say I know nothing about flat racing! Not that I know a whole lot about the jumps stuff, but I've been able to pick out some value here and there. With no UK jumps racing until Thursday, it's becoming obvious to me that I'll have to get my head around the flat stuff if I want to keep punting through the Summer months, which I do. So with that in mind, I'm going to follow a similar approach to the one I take when picking horses in jumps races and I'm going to keep the stakes very low to begin with. I've thought about just backing straight wins instead of the e/w bets I've become accustomed to over the past while, and although it would show a higher profit if I'd been following that strategy from the beginning, it's obviously riskier, and my main aim for the time being is to keep in the green, so I'll stick to the e/w's where there's an e/w price.

4.40 Nottingham
Sheila's Buddy - 0.5pt e/w @ 13/2 (bet365)

Although he's the top weight in the race, Sheila's Buddy seems to be the one horse who has proved himself over tomorrow's trip on the good to soft ground being reported when winning a C5 0-75 2yo race over 1m2f46yds around the left handed Bath racecourse last September. He won this race off a mark of 67, and runs only 3lbs heavier tomorrow off 70. Nottingham is also a very similar track to Bath, both being left-handed galloping tracks, and I've read there is no real draw bias in Nottingham over the longer trips, so being drawn in stall 9 shouldn't be a problem.

He comes here tomorrow off the back of a win over the trip on Wolverhampton's all-weather surface when re-appearing in early March after a four month break. This has led me to the assumption that the horse has developed well over the four month break and should (at least in theory) show improvement when being reintroduced to the turf tomorrow, so the 3lb raise shouldn't be an issue. He's been victorious in both his previous runs over 10f which were both in C5 races, and all his poorer runs have been over shorter distances so it does seem to be his trip.

The 3 horses heading the market - Neils Pride, Joyful Spirit and Bevis Market - all have question marks hanging over them. Neil's Pride, although off a very low weight and finishing really well in his final race last season, he comes here today with only 3 races under his belt, the longest of which being run over 7f, 3f shorter than tomorrows distance. Joyful Spirit is another who's unproven over the trip, and her only race on good to soft ground was pretty average. John Dunlop hasn't had too many runners lately, with none of the few he has had catching the eye so you couldn't say the yard is in any sort of form. Bevis Marks has only run 3 times, in 3 C5 Maidens, two of which he finished last in, the other he finished 4/6. These were all over 8f, 2 being run on the AW, the other on good ground in Sandown. He'll appreciate running in a handicap tomorrow but with uncertainty over the horses will to win, the trip and the going, I'd have to strike a line through him too.

For me, 13/2 about Sheila's Buddy offers good value. He's proven twice in the past to like the trip, the conditions shouldn't be any problem nor should the track. Liam Keniry steers today as he has done in most of the horse's previous races, including the 2 wins, and if he show's the improvement that I expect him to, the fact he's top weight shouldn't be an issue. Hopefully he'll prove to be rated a few pounds to the good.

rodeo1985

4.40 Nottingham
Sheila's Buddy - 0.5pt e/w @ 13/2
Place

Joyful Spirit jumped out front well from a wide draw to lead them along, with Bevis Market in close contention. Liam Keniry tucked Sheila's Buddy right in at the back. The placings remained as is until coming twords the final 3 furlongs, where Joyful Spirit kicked on for home and went a couple of lengths clear, while Bevis Market quickly faded. 2f out Dorry K and Neils Pride looked to be the real dangers and with 1f to go Sheila's Buddy made a cracking run up the outside and was just beaten a head by Dorry K who stayed on well. The extra bit of weight our selection was carrying proved to be all the difference.

+0.3pts for the day

Running Total +31.8

rodeo1985

2.45 Folkstone
School Fees 0.5pts e/w @ 9-1 (Bet365)
Star Kingdom 0.5pts e/w @ 12-1 (Bet365)

The top of the betting market again looks suspect to me in this race, particularly Mayo Lad and Light Burst. The former is a half brother to Canford Cliffs running out of the Richard Hannon yard, but showed very little in his 3 Maiden starts last year. The latter is owned by Godolphin and trained by Mahmood Al Zarooni, but his form looks worse than Mayo Lads, who both seem to be handicapped accordingly. Looking at form alone, neither of these offer any value for me. Along with these two at the head of the pint are Al Freej and Welease Brian, both of whom have decent all weather form, but have shown nothing on the turf yet.

The two that stick out to me like a pair of sore thumbs are School Fees and Star Kingdom, both at very generous prices. School Fees has run in a C4 Maiden, 2 C5 Maidens and a C5 Nursery, the last two being over 6f, and her form figures read 3233. Looking into her last two starts abit further would indicate very promising signs to me. Her second last race was a C5 Maiden over tomorrows C+D, and she was only beaten a head by Ewell Place, who's official turf rating is now 98 having followed up this race with a great run in a C2 Yearling Stakes race over the same distance, finishing 3rd of 20 runners. That day Ewell Place only carried 4lbs more than my selection, and only won by a head. I calculate that he should have won by about 4 lengths. In her last race she was beaten 6 lengths by Stepper Point, and here is the racing post comment under School Fees name for tomorrows race - "Beaten 6l off this mark in sole nursery; needs more after a break". This baffles me. Fair enough she needs to show improvement, but you could say that about all horses returning to the track as 3 yr olds. She was beaten that day by a horse now rated 108, not some mickey mouse pony. Thats a 34lb difference in ratings. I'm using a conservative calc of 3lbs per length, and if thats roughly correct there's still a 16lb difference to account for, which in simple terms means I think the winner should have won by about 6 lengths more, and thats a big difference over 6f even if you take into account the fact he was eased down. She's proven before that the straight track won't be a problem, nor will the good ground, and in short I think this horse is under handicapped and over priced.

It's a similar enough story for Star Kingdom, who has run 4 times to date, twice on the all weather where he's shown nothing, and twice on the turf where he's put in a couple of handy enough efforts. Both races were run over tomorrows distance, the first of which was a C5 Maiden run in Windsor last August over a straight 6 furlongs. It was his first race, and he ran well enough finishing about 6 lengths off the winner that day. His next turf outing showed a little more promise. He ran a C4 Maiden in Newbury, again over a straight 6 furlongs (which is what tomorrows race will be run over), and finished a respectable 5/11 considering the company he was in. He finished about 4 1/2 lengths off the winner that day off level weights, with the winner now rated 96, or 28lbs higher than Star Kingdom. To me 4.5 lengths equates to about 14lbs, which I believe leaves our pick 14lbs to the good. This is further backed up if we look at the runner up Glen Moss, who he finished only 2 1/2 lengths behind also off level weights. Glen Moss is now rated 87, and this again indicates to me that Star Kingdom is still 11-12lbs to the good tomorrow. That and the fact he's run the trip on turf twice now, both occasions on straight tracks on goodish ground (one GF, one GS), putting in decent performances both times would suggest to me that 12-1 is a big price.

I reckon if one of these was coming from the Hannon yard and the other was owned by Godolphin they'd be the top 2 in the market!

rodeo1985

On the train to Aintree and the signal is poor here so I'll keep the reasoning short and sweet.

4.05 Leicester
Grand Gold - 0.5pt win @15-2 (William Hills)

Has run 3 times this year over shorter distances and has been steadily improving. Ran well 3 days ago claiming 3rd place in a 1m2f C5. No shortage in stamina and should prefer the longer trip. Not given a penalty after his last run and Matthew Lawson takes off another 5lbs.

5.05 Sedgefield
Suprise Vendor - 1pt win @ 3-1 (PP)

Missed out on the big price win on this fellow the last time out, after picking him out at a big price the week previous. Has won over todays C+D before, also won his last race over 2m2f in Kelso, and won a C3 Handicap Hurdle on soft ground in December over 2m2f as well. Comes here off the back of a win with a 4lb rise in mark, the Sedgefield track is very similar to Kelso where he's performed so well in the past, and if there's a bit of pace in the race today he should be there or there abouts. Wouldn't take him at anything shorter than 3's though as there's some decent competition today.

Clinto22

On the way to Aintree...you jammy ****!

Surprise Vendor is already below 3s (3.75 on B365) so going to fish around for a better price. Should be a good one to watch with a pint after work though!

Thanks for the tips, you've had a couple of close ones recently. Enjoy ladies day in Aintree

rodeo1985

Clinto22 wrote: »

On the way to Aintree...you jammy ****!

Surprise Vendor is already below 3s (3.75 on B365) so going to fish around for a better price. Should be a good one to watch with a pint after work though!

Thanks for the tips, you've had a couple of close ones recently. Enjoy ladies day in Aintree

Thanks for the kind words Clinto, yeah I've had a couple of decent priced nearlys over the last week or so that would have had the bank looking slightly more healthy, can be a bit disheartening but there's a good run just around the corner, hopefully starting today SV still 3s with PP, looks like there's some early money for Law Giver which has no doubt contributed the drift. I'd be surprised to see him go off anything more than 5-2 if he's ok, and in my opinion anyway, on form he should beat LG taking track, trip and going into consideration, even with the 4lb rise. Taking claims into account they run off level weights, just hope the go at a decent pace. Enjoy your pint(s) after work, fingers crossed that it's Paddy Power who pays for them

kryogen

Grand Gold is a non runner just to let you know.

rodeo1985

3.00 Exeter
Teenage Kicks 0.5pts win @ 10.0 (Betfair)
Counting House 0.5pts @ win 10.0 (Betfair)

Looked at this race for a while and found it quite hard to decide, but I think the 9-1 offered about Teenage Kicks and Counting House represents good value in comparison to the 7-2 and shorter being offered about the leading 3, so I'll take a minimal stakes win punt on each.

The market leader Oscarlad is Daryl Jacobs first ride since his brilliant grand national win, and call me sceptical, but I'd imagine he's been celebrating hard for the last few days and could easily come here tomorrow minus his A game. Along with that, the horse has a few question marks hanging over him with respect to tomorrows outing. Although winning last time out around Wincanton, that was in a race over a shorter trip and on softer ground. He's unproven over today's trip and conditions, has been given a sharp 10lb rise for todays race and will do very well to win. I couldn't have him at 11-4. Imperial Circus has run OK in his last 3 starts which were all similar races to today's, but he still hasn't found a win, and his mark hasn't moved much either. He actually runs off a higher weight tomorrow as he's losing James Best's 3lb claim, and I thought Best gave him a good ride last time out. Soulard's form may flatter him a bit. He ran well in his last handicap coming 2/6 in a 2m3f C4 race last October which saw him receive a 5lb rise, and followed that up with a C4 Novices Hurdle win. This win was in a 3 horse race however, and although being over tomorrow's C+D it was off level weights against two far inferior horses. The raise in weights combined with the fact he's been off the course since last October will make it very hard for him to win on his first run of the year over 3miles on the very testing Exeter track.

I'd like to take a chance on two bigger priced opponents in the form of Teenage Kicks and Counting House. Teenage Kicks has been a solid performer in the C3-C4 Novices and Handicap hurdle bracket. From 19 starts he's had 3 wins, 4 seconds (although one of these was in a 4 horse race) and 2 thirds. He comes here today off the back of 3 runs this year, the first of which he was pulled up in off a mark of 125. This saw him drop down to 120 for the first time since his last win in June 2011. He was then put out for 2 3m C4 runs, both of which he ran well in and showing improvement after each. The first he came 4/6 in a 0-120 race on good to firm ground, however he was only 6 lengths off the winner that day and in a race over 3 miles that isn't too far off, and he saw his mark drop to 119 after this. His next he came 2/8 in a similar 0-120 3m race on good ground, only beaten by Rossmore Lad who's now rated 125. He's had a 7lb claimer riding on both occasions and he takes 7lbs off again tomorrow. Although it's a class above his last couple of races, it's a poor enough race with Al Co being the top rated horse at 130, which appears far too much for him, and the next best being Imperial Circus at 121. I think it's all aligned nicely for this horse to put in a big show tomorrow.

Coming 3rd to Teenage Kicks last time out was Counting House. There were only 2 lengths between them the last day and he was giving Teenage Kicks 1lb that day too, but the both run off an equal 119 tomorrow. This run was his first since last November, he run's off a lower weight tomorrow and has proven to get the trip when winning a 3m race around Newbury this time last year off 115. He was given a rise to 123 after that win and didn't do too well in 2 races afterwards off that mark. Did better off 120 last time out and should deliver more tomorrow off the slightly lower weight and with the previous run under his belt.

rodeo1985

2.45 Folkstone
School Fees 0.5pts e/w @ 9-1 (Bet365)
Place
Star Kingdom 0.5pts e/w @ 12-1 (Bet365)
Lose

It's always going to be a worry when backing the night before, but the desperate conditions in Folkstone did neither of my selections any favours, who both seem to prefer better ground. The going was reported as good on Wednesday night, but the meeting was abandoned after race 2 on the day due to unsafe ground conditions.

Both horses broke well taking up positions on the rail side and both kept up with the pace until 1 1/2f out. Star Kingdom weakened at this point but School Fees burst on ahead with Dishy Guru and Mayo Lad, taking the 3 a few lengths clear of the field, and Dishy Guru held on for the win, from Mayo Lad in second and School Fees in third. Star Kingdom finished 5th.

In my opinion, better ground conditions will suit both these animals and the soft ground particularly hampered School Fees, who I believe would have won that race on good ground. Both horses will be going into the notebook and if they run in a similar race in future on better ground, and offer some value, I'll be backing both again.

rodeo1985

4.05 Leicester
Grand Gold - 0.5pt win @15-2 (William Hills)
Non-Runner


5.05 Sedgefield
Suprise Vendor - 1pt win @ 3-1 (PP)
Lose

No excuses, just wasn't good enough on the day and the combination of top weight and worse conditions to the run previous was probably too much for him. In hindsight I think it was a mistake to back him and probably only did because I was sore after missing the big price previously!

Got the pace he needed and travelled well in behind the leaders on the rail until improving at 4 out. The first 4 quickly moved away from the rest of the field and the writing was on the wall 3 out when he needed to be shaken up to keep in touch. Stanley Bridge always looked dangerous, travelling well in 4th place and put the race to bed when quickening before the last.

Total for the 2 days -1.69pts

Running Total +30.11 pts

rodeo1985

rodeo1985 wrote: »

Ethiopia 1/2 pt place @ 12.5 (betfair)
Lose

Ethiopia traveled well and among the leading bunch for a long way, but understandably tired as the race progressed and ended up falling 3 from home. I'd expect him to come on for the run and I'll keep an eye out for him in future.

3.30 Exeter
Ethiopia - 0.5pts e/w @ 10-1 (bet365)

First of all if anyone has a good horse tracker can they let me know please? I'm using the ATR tracker but they only email you on the day the horse runs, so I've been caught a couple of time only finding out on the morning of the race and it mean's I can't look through the race in any sort of detail.

But I got a mail this morning telling me that Ethiopia has a run today. I flagged him as a horse to look out for after he traveled well enough last time out until tiring and falling 3 out, but that day he was just back from a long break so I'd excuse the fall. He was dropped from 126-118 for that run which is a positive for today. The trip is 3 1/2f furlongs longer than the one he didn't see out the last day, but if he's come on for his last run, and if he gets the trip he shouldn't be far away, especially when taking into account the drop in mark and James Best's 5lb claim. Best's form figures for rides on this horse is impressive, reading F3131, and Ethiopia's form on good to firm ground reads 31U21141, which is also very impressive. Rain is forecast for the afternoon, but the ground should be good at worst, and his performances on good ground has been impressive too. If he can get over his last two runs and is back to the form he was in prior to them he should run well today, and 10-1 looks decent.

rodeo1985

If I'm 1 place out of the money again this week I could well crack up!

3.00 Exeter
Teenage Kicks 0.5pts win @ 10.0 (Betfair)
Counting House 0.5pts @ win 10.0 (Betfair)
Lose

Both these horses went off much shorter than 9-1 (even taking into account the rule4 on the non-runner) and neither ran like a longshot so I'm at least happy with the selections. Soulard took them off and raced very keen, staying about 6 lengthe out in front for most of the race, with both Teenage Kicks and Counting House sitting out the back. It remained like that until the turn in for home where Soulard completely faded out of proceedings and was passed by the quartet of Al Co, Imperial Circus, Counting House and Teenage Kicks. Jumping the last it was all about the leaders Imperial Circus and Counting House, with the latter swinging way out left when jumping the final obstacle and hanging like a gate when landing the far side. From way out left he drifted all the way back across to finish only 1/2 length off the winner Imperial Circus and if he'd have just gone straight there's no doubt that he'd have won. Gutted. Teenage Kicks finished behind in third.

3.30 Exeter
Ethiopia - 0.5pts e/w @ 10-1 (bet365)
Lose

Drifted and went off at 14's, which turned out to be about right, although he did run a very nice race until fading about 4 from home. Pairc Na gCapall took the field around and Ethiopia always sat in about 3rd/4th position until 6 from home where himself and Spring Moon took up the running. Something happened to Spring Moon and he was abruptly pulled up with about a 7 or 8 furlongs to travel leaving Ethiopia out in front. He was soon pressed by the eventual first, second and third, and looked beaten four from home. He kept on well though but when Kaybeew and Key Cutter blundered at the second last he was always finishing fourth, and so was eased down and finished about 30 lengths off the 3rd horse. I still like this horse and think he has a race in him. He jumped well all the way around and it looked like it was just his fitness that beat him. He's come on leaps from his first run, and will improve for this one too. His mark is likely to be lowered for that run and if he's dropped back in trip and runs in a similar class race on decent ground next time out, I'll be looking at him again. In hindsight I should have known I was backing him a race too early yesterday.


-2pts on the day

Running total +28.11 pts

rodeo1985

3.20 Ripon
Ertikaan - 0.5 pts e/w @ 20-1 (bet365)
Spinatrix - 0.5 pts win @ 10.5 (betfair)
Spinatrix - 0.5 pts place @ 3.3 (betfair)

This race is a competitive little handicap with plenty of horses having serious claims. Able Master, Jedward and Little Jimmy Odsox all have decent form on today's soft ground and all come here with some solid form behind them over 6f. Jedward is possibly the most interesting of the 3, making his debut for Richard Fahy having moved to the UK from Charles O'Briens yard, who he has run some really good races for. Silvestre De Sousa teams up with Able Master today, who is back down now to a competitive mark and will have come on for his first run of the year when finishing 6th of 15 in Redcar earlier this month. Little Jimmy Oddsox has impressive form on paper which reads 12311, but some of those races were very below par, and with a rising mark I'd sooner take Spinatrix at 9.5-1 as opposed to Little Jimmy at 5's.

Spinatrix finished 1 length behind Little Jimmy Oddsox in a 6f sprint on soft ground last August off a 5lb higher mark, but the gap has since been bridged and only 2lbs separate the pair today. Spinatrix form over 6f on soft/good to soft ground reads 23121174, and her general form figures from 2011 are very impressive. She's won over the course and distance on good to soft ground so the venue shouldn't be a problem. She ran from stall 2 that day and has been drawn in 4 today, so the draw shouldn't be a problem either. She comes here today off a career high mark of 80, and hasn't won any of the 3 races she's run off this mark, but she placed twice. She come's back today after a break having had a long campaign last year and if showing improvement for the rest she should put it up to any of the competition here.

The other one who caught the eye at a big price is the well rested Ertikaan. This chap hasn't run since September 2010, which is obviously a concern, but he's making his debut today for a new yard and if he's fit and well he'll take a lot of beating. Having won a C4 Maiden back in July 2010, he went on to run in 3 C3 handicaps, coming 2/8 on his first which saw his mark jump from 82 to 86. He then ran another two coming 3/6 in the next, then 4/14 on good to soft ground in Ascot back in Sept 2010 off the same mark of 86. He comes here today having dropped down to 83, however he's ridden by 7lb claimer Darren Edward Egan today which drops him further again. All his runs to date have been from 6f to 1mile, so the trip shouldn't be a problem, and the shorter trip is probably the right one to be returning to after a break. He is also stepping down in company which should suit, and has run well on good to soft ground previously. The big concern is obviously his match fitness, however it's always a good sign when you see a horse with such a question mark being backed early on. There only been 3 movers on bet365's market since they opened up the prices, and this chap is one of them having being backed from 25's into 20's.

rodeo1985

rodeo1985 wrote: »

If I'm 1 place out of the money again this week I could well crack up!

ahhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh.......!