Rodeo's Racing Log

rodeo1985

2.40 Chepstow
Spinning Waters - 1pt e/w @ 20/1

Had a relatively decent hurdling campaign last season and notably winning this time last year to the week over C+D among the same class company. Also worth noting the 2 races prior to his win were in Taunton and Newton Abbot, catching the eye in neither. His most recent two runs were also sub-optimal performances in Taunton and Newton Abbot, the latest of which he was run over the unideal trip of 2m6f, which saw him lose 3lbs in the weights. Matt Griffiths, a jockey who has never rode this horse before, has curiously been booked for the ride, taking off a further 5lbs, which lowers the weight to 11-2, 5lbs lighter than when winning over C+D one year ago. At 20/1 I think this animal is overpriced and will take a minimal e/w punt.

As an aside, I'll be backing The Lemonpie 1.5pts to win if his price drifts to 4-1. Hasn't been caught by the handicapper after running into 3rd 3 days ago, and has AP McCoy booked to ride this time out. However, latest showing he looks to be moving in and is now 5/2, which is too short for me.


3.00 Carlisle
Dartford Warbler - 1pt e/w @10/1

This half brother to champion hurdler Rock On Ruby makes his handicap debut today. His previous attempt over hurdles saw him finish 5/8, but the four horses beating him are currently rated 113-120 over hurdles, with this lad finishing in the same group as the first 4, leaving the next best 39 lengths behind. With this in mind, this animal is still only rated 106 so his form isn't bad. He's had a 2 1/2 month break which he'll hopefully come back all the better for, and has moved to Sue Smith's yard, who is the top trainer at this course. He'll also pair up with the more than capable Ryan Mania for the first time, and he is also one of this courses top jockeys.

MyStubbleItches

Very impressive picking, well done and good luck. Will be following.

Eire-Dearg

Jaysus, what a start.

rodeo1985

Thanks lads.

4.25 Newbury
Topolski - 1pt e/w @ 13/2 (Corals)

Had a very impressive start over hurdles in last years campaign with 3 wins from 3 starts, most notably winning a 2m1/2f Grade2 Novices race in Aintree at last Aprils festival off a mark of 145. Had a shaky start this season running 2 bad races in October and November, but I'm putting that down to a lack of fitness and a couple of errors costing him valuable ground in both of those high class races. These bad runs were followed up by a respectable run into 2nd place which he needed to battle for in a Grade 2 hurdle over 2m4f last month, and with a drop in class today, back to the preferred distance, and off his lowest mark of 144, this horse is in with a shout and is priced nicely at 13/2.

rodeo1985

5.10 Sedgefield
Endeavor 1pt win @ 5.9, 1pt place @2.7 (betfair prices)

Alba King looks to be very well treated in the weights for this race, running off 9-7 taking Jonathan Englands claim into account. Comes into the race on the back of a good win over the distance 10 days ago and will take all the beating. Front Rank has no solid form to speak of, nor does City Ground over hurdles, and the money for the latter surprises me. Amir Pasha has a chance but in my mind there are question marks around the weight being carried and whether he'll appreciate the firmer ground conditions being reported at the track today.

The white faced Endeavour is the one I'd like to take on the favourite with. Possibly had some luck last time out when winning over the distance, with a loose horse obstructing the strongly finishing Gud Day, but I'm not convinced Gud Day would have taken the race anyway. Did very well to win the strongly run race that day, and combined with a win over 2m3f in the race previous, making it 3 wins out of the last 4 starts over hurdles, and running off 10-12 with Jonathon Bewleys 7lb claim being taken into account, this horse must hold stronger claims than the market suggests if running to form.

rodeo1985

2.40 Chepstow
Spinning Waters - 1pt e/w @ 20/1
Win

The gamble was landed on this one, opening up at 20-1 the night before on bet365 and went off 13-2. Ran very comfortably throughout, tucking in behind the leaders until just after halfway, then lifted the pace alongside Chasing Aces about 4 out turning for home. This did it's job and proved to tire the followers and Spinning Waters stuck to his task well, kicking on when challenged by My Viking Bay and a lovely jump at the last saw him go on to win by a couple of lengths. There was a rule 4 deduction of 30p per pound, so if my maths are correct this equates to a profit of 24*.7=16.8points, a nice healthy start.

3.00 Carlisle
Dartford Warbler - 1pt e/w @10/1
Win

A moderate pace was set by King of Thornes and Wilde Pastures, and Dartford Warbler hapily sat in behind the leading two. He took up the running coming to the 6th and was never overtaken. Kingdom of Munster put up a brave challenge on the run in but Dartford Warbler found that little bit extra and pulled away by 2-3 lengths. 12 more points in the bag.

Well if yesterday was a day to remember, today was a day to forget...

4.25 Newbury
Topolski - 1pt e/w @ 13/2 (Corals)
Lose

The writing was on the wall for this fellow before the race even started, when drifting out to 10-1. The markets got it spot on and this lad is just not back to form yet. I'll keep him in the notebook though.

5.10 Sedgefield
Endeavor 1pt win @ 5.9, 1pt place @2.7 (betfair prices)
Lose

Endeavor is a bit of a pig and has proven it once or twice in the past when refusing to start. The horse just looked like it didn't want to be there today, and never travelled well, but keeping in touch all the same. Unseated the rider about 6f out by clipping the rail, and that was the end of that. Lesson learned - "don't back pigs". Fav went on to win off a generous mark.

Running total +24.8 pts

rodeo1985

3.00 Kelso
Suprise Vendor 1pt e/w @ 25-1 (bet365)
Carters Rest 1pt win @ 8.4 (betfair)
Carters Rest 1pt place @ 2.51 (betfair)

Suprise Vendor won on this course in a higher class race in December. Granted off a much lower weight than he's carrying tomorrow, and he hasn't really performed since the raise in weights. But I think he's had his excuses. On his next start after winning he was risen from a mark of 104 to 112, and never really traveled in this much higher class race prior to a fall when running on soft ground. The next was run on heavy ground and the combination of the 11-8 he was carrying along with the heavy ground never suited, and he was pulled up after making a few errors. The going for tomorrows race has been reported as good, which should make the 6 year olds job carrying 11-6 easier than he's found in the races previous, and at a massive 25-1, I'll take an each way punt and hope for an improved run.

Carters Rest won by 5 lenghts in early January over the same distance and among the same class company on soft ground in Ayr, and followed it up with a gallant 2nd when beaten by Ros Castle in late January on the same track, a race he probably would have won if the line came 1/2 a furlong later. Under performed next time out in Ayr in a 4 runner field on heavy ground carrying 11-9, but the combination of the weight and conditions is a good enough excuse for me for his bad run. The grey horse is treated quite well in the weights tomorrow carrying 10-12 taking Henry Brooke's claim into account. I think a price of 8.4 is more than fair, and certainly beats the 4-1 on offer with bet365.

4.20 Stratford
Daaloob - 1pt win @ 6.45 (betfair)
Daaloob - 1pt place @ 2.14 (betfair)

Daaloob made his first appearance back at the track running in Chepstow 2 weeks ago after a 2 year absence, and ran an impressive race in the 2m 1/2f Novices handicap considering the absence, finishing 3rd of 6. He jumped well and if he can improve for the run he is in with a chance today against weak company. I also take the move to Tony Carrolls yard along with a decent first run for him as a positive. Again I found a better price on betfair than what was on offer on bet365 (11/2 the former, 3-1 the latter), and just to stress, I wouldn't back this horse at 3's.

rodeo1985

Haven't really looked into chases before so these are very small stakes bets.

Newbury 3.40
Ouzbeck 1/2 pt e/w @7-1 (bet365)
Pearly Steps 1/2 pt place (4.0 betfair)
Ethiopia 1/2 pt place @ 12.5 (betfair)

Missed the big 10/1 price on Ouzbeck last night, which has now closed into 7's best price, which could still represent value. Have my doubts over the fav Mon Parrain having read Paul Nichols betfair column this morning, where he stated - "He is 2lb lower in the weights after those runs but to my eye he is still handicapped up to the hilt and this trip of 3m2f110yd is probably as far as he wants to go." I think Ouzbeck could be the one to take him on, having had a run over todays C+D under the same good conditions earlier in the month, and battled on impressively to run into 3rd when he looked completely out of contention when turning for home. This was his first run back after a 6 month absence and the race was run at a very nippy pace, so he did really well to stay in touch, and his trainer Emma Lavelle claims that he has come on for the run. He's been teamed up for the first time with Noel Fehily today who has a very good record around Newbury, and runs off a 2lb lower mark than when running here earlier in the month, and in my view is in with a great chance today.

There are a few question marks around Pearly Steps here, such as his jumping as of late, and if he'll be suited to todays good going. What convinced me on this fellows chances is the fact that trainer Henry Daly thought enough of this horse to bring in jumping expert Yogi Breisner to work with the horse for the past week. Pearly Steps has a Grand National entry, and Daly has expressed that whether he goes to the GN will depend on what happens here today, suggesting he'll need to place here today to be in with a shout of going, which I think he has a great chance of doing if his jumping has improved. Hasn't got a whole lot of form on todays going, but it's unlikely that Daly would be considering sending him to the National if he didn't go on good ground.

Ethiopia is the speculative one, but not without good reason. He hasn't been seen on the track since pulling up in Wincanton last October, and he was wisely given a much needed break after a long 2010/2011 campaign. Previous to his last race, he had won a 3m chase over good ground in Chepstow early last October, beating both Swincombe Rock and Ouzbeck (both of whom run off lower weights today), and had some solid enough chasing form in lower class races. Has it all to do here today, and the lack of money for him in the markets would suggest that he'll need the run, but it wouldn't completely shock me if he ran into 3rd off a low weight of 9-7 (taking into account James Bests claim), and at 12.5 it'll do no harm having 1/2pt on the place.

rodeo1985

3.00 Kelso
Suprise Vendor 1pt e/w @ 25-1 (bet365)
Lose
Carters Rest 1pt win @ 8.4 (betfair)
Carters Rest 1pt place @ 2.51 (betfair)
Lose

This was a fairly slow run race that only really picked up pace with 3 to jump. At the second last they were still tightly bunched and there wasn't a horse without a chance, but jumping the last it was a sprint for home, and Suprise Vendor faded badly, while Carters Rest stayed one paced finishing 5th.

4.20 Stratford
Daaloob - 1pt win @ 6.45 (betfair)
Daaloob - 1pt place @ 2.14 (betfair)
Lose

Daaloob traveled well and looked to be very much in contention for a place when rounding the bend, with the eventual winner out on his own and looking as he proved to be, uncatchable. Got overtaken on the run in by the strong finishing and gambled on Wicklewood, and was unlucky not to catch the fading Apache Dawn before the line, if only the line came a few yards later... Wouldn't have picked out the winner in a million years.

3.40 Newbury
Ouzbeck 1/2 pt e/w @7-1 (bet365)
Place
Pearly Steps 1/2 pt place (4.0 betfair)
Ethiopia 1/2 pt place @ 12.5 (betfair)
Lose

Yet again Pearly Steps was let down by his jumping, and his National entry will surely be withdrawn after pulling up today. Ethiopia traveled well and among the leading bunch for a long way, but understandably tired as the race progressed and ended up falling 3 from home. I'd expect him to come on for the run and I'll keep an eye out for him in future.

Ouzbeck ran a shocking first half of the race, making a couple of jumping errors early on and tailing off to the back of the field by about 12 lengths, at which point I was sure he'd be pulled up. Amazingly he rallied and traveled brilliantly in the second half, picking off the fading horses one by one and moving into 4th coming to the last. After pinging the last he finished at a blistering pace and ran into second, I have no doubt he would have won this race only for the costly errors he made at the start.


-6.625 on the day

Running total +18.175

rodeo1985

3.10 Hexham
Majestic Mayhem - 0.75 pts e/w @ 11-1 (Ladbrokes)

Majestic Mayhem ended last season disastrously, not finishing any of his last 4 races, 3 of which were chases where his jumping let him down badly. He was reverted back to hurdles for his last race in Leicester in December, and was again pulled up. Thats the negatives out of the way. The good news is that previous to the forgettable final 4 races, this horse has quite good hurdling form, particularly on this course.

He's run 4 times here over hurdles, winning 2 and coming second and 4th in the others. His record jumping fences here is good too, running twice claiming one win and one second. He's also had a 4 month break and will hopefully come back keen and fresh. George Moore's decision to run him in Hexham for his return is no surprise. It's a track he'll have good memories from, where he's won over the C+D, and it's hurdles are relatively easy so it's the best place to run a horse who may be lacking in confidence on his jumping.

His poor performances at the end of last season has meant he's dropped 8lbs in the rankings since his last run here over hurdles last March, another positive. If Majestic Mayhem's 4 month break solves the problems he faced at the end of last year, and his jumping is fluent, 11-1 would seem to be a big price for a horse who has decent form and such a high success rate at this track. The market should give us an indication and if he shortens up, I'd be confident of a very good run.

rodeo1985

3.10 Hexham
Majestic Mayhem - 0.75 pts e/w @ 11-1 (Ladbrokes)
Win

George Moore did a great job to bring this horse back as fresh as he was today, and must have put in plenty of work on his jumping too. The jockey/trainers decision to run Majestic Mayhem out front, giving him a clear view of every obstacle, was also vindicated with the horse putting in an excellent round of jumping. He travelled beautifully throughout the race, dictated the pace, loved the going and the trip, and never at any stage looked under pressure. Another great run for this lad at Hexham.

+10.3 pts on the day

Running total +28.5 pts

rodeo1985

2.30 Towcester
Meridiem - 1.5pt win @ 7/2 (bet365, best price guaranteed)

I'm not a big fan of backing favourites, but I can't see past Meridiem in this two mile handicap hurdle, and the 7/2 on offer I believe represents value. This horse has been off the track since last June, until sent out for a run around 2m4f at Sedgefield earlier this month. I believe the sole purpose of this was to shake off the cobwebs after a long break in order to prepare him for this race, and maybe lower his mark a little bit too. All his form has been on good or good to firm ground, and over 2 miles, so to send him out on soft ground for a 2m4f trip suggests to me that connections knew what they wanted out of the race. Tomorrow is a different story. Meridiem's record around Towcester is highly impressive, reading 12212, all of which came on good/good to firm ground, which is what has been forecast for tomorrow. He's dropped 1lb in the ratings since his previous run, and is back to his prefered trip of 2m. He has the same OR today as he had the last day he won here in a higher class race, and conditional Chris Honour does the steering which he has done on all his successful outings in the past. All the pieces seem to fit when I look at this lads form, and I expect a big run tomorrow.

Eire-Dearg

Good tipping again, unfortunately wasn't on.

hawaii501

Great tipping once again, at least I was on this time:D:D:D

Clinto22

Boom! Another win, well done.

rodeo1985

2.30 Towcester
Meridiem - 1.5pt win @ 7/2
Win

I was really impressed with how Meridiem won this race because he needed to dig deep to pull it out. They travelled in a tightly bunched group led by Definite Lady and Spare Me, and Meridiem seemed to be travelling well, making slow progress with 4 to jump. But between 4 and 3 he actually moved back in the field, at which point I was fearing the worst. Chris Honour got him into a good position on the rail when turning in for home and asked his mount for a push, and he duely obliged moving into the lead with 2 to jump. He fought off the advance of Mossman Gorge before coming to the last, where Prizefighter joined him for a fantastic battle on the run for home. The challenger got the better jump at the last, but when they went neck on neck in the run in, Meridiem had that little bit more and hit the line 1/2 a length ahead.

+5.25 for the day

Running total +33.75

NaiveMelodies

Fairplay man, Your write-ups remind of Xpyros, really thorough and very easy to read and understand from a novices point of view.
No pressure now...

rodeo1985

4.10 Hereford
Titch Strider - 0.5pts e/w @ 12-1 (PP, Bet365)

I spent a couple of hours looking through this race, and I'm finding it difficult to pick anything out because on form, they're all pretty bad. I've gone with minimal e/w stakes on Titch Strider. Her form over timber is poor, coming 6th of 8 on her handicap debut in a C5 Maiden last November. However, last time she ran over this C+D she didn't disgrace herself, coming 6th of 12. There was very little difference in weights that day (7lbs from top weight to bottom weight), and everything finishing ahead of her is now rated between 105 and 147 over hurdles. The ground was good that day, as its due to be tomorrow which is another positive.

Her rating wasn't touched after running in 6th over C+D, but her bad subsequent run saw her lose 4lbs, which is another positive for today. Something else I've noticed is that on the couple of occassions she has run a half decent race, the trainer has used a conditional jockey, and I'm taking the fact that 3lb claimer Conor O'Farrell rides today as a good thing. She's been off the track since last November, and I fear she may need the run, however there has been some very early money for the horse, another sign to me that the trainer plans to give it a go tomorrow.

Clutching at straws I know, but I'd have to have a punt at something after missing the Utd match to look into it!

rodeo1985

4.20 Market Rasen
Favours Brave - 1pt e/w @ 16-1 (Bet365)

If the last race was poor, this one seems to be above average, and there's alot of horses running here with very strong claims. Tekthelot and Knox Overstreet look to be very well handicapped, both running big races over the past week, and running today off the same mark. I stand to be corrected here, but I believe the way the handicap system works in the UK is that updated handicaps are published every week on a Tuesday, but they only include updates based on horses who've run on the 7 days leading up to the previous Saturday. If that's correct, then the handicapper won't yet have got to the horses I've mentioned which is why they are so well treated.

Hammer has run great in his last two races, both of which were over today's trip, and his mark still remains very low, running off only 10-8 taking into account Lucy Alexanders claim. Charles has some great form, but he may just need the run. The horse I'd like to take them all on with is the favourably priced son of Galileo, Favours Brave.

Favours Brave has run pretty poorly in his last 3 races, which have seen his mark drop from 113 down to 100. However I'm going to excuse him the couple of bad runs. Certain things in those races didn't play to his strengths, such as the soft going, the longer trip, and just the odd off day when he pulled up in Wetherby. Previous to that he'd been running pretty solid, and his rating was steadily rising. He's run well at this track in the past and his form in Market Rasen reads 01253, and if we refine that to just tomorrows C+D it reads 123. These results all came in higher class races, and his win which came in Aug 2010, was off a mark of 108. These 3 runs have all been on good ground, which is forecast for tomorrow.

Favours Brave is dropping to C5 for the first time, running off a low mark of 100, on a track that he's proven to excel at when running over C+D on good ground. He's had a 2 month break and should come here fresh and full of running. Everything looks to be in his favour for tomorrow, and if he's right I'd expect him to be up there.

rodeo1985

4.10 Hereford
Titch Strider - 0.5pts e/w @ 12-1 (PP, Bet365)
Place

I wasn't overly optimistic about this selection last night, but when I saw the money coming in this afternoon I'll admit to having an extra couple of quid on. Opening at 14-1 last night, I saw her touch 4-1 in places this afternoon. It told me all I needed to know about the form she was coming here in. Both owned and trained by John Panvert, the gamble indicated to me that they've worked her hard and have been waiting for a race on this track, over this distance and on this good ground to have a big gamble with her, and today was their day. It's a shame nobody told Munlochy Bay who seemed to come from nowhere to spoil the party on the line.

Beat All Out made the running here, with Titch Strider sitting in comfortably just behind mid division. With 4 to jump Munlochy Bay looked out of it, being hard ridden and being given reminders after jumping the fourth, and surely must have been trading at triple figures on the exchanges. Meanwhile 2 from home Truckers Benefit travelled comfortably into the lead, soon being joined by Titch Strider, and it looked like a 2 horse race from there.

On the long run to the last however, Munlochy Bay kept making steady progress and having jumped the last the leading pair, headed by Titch Strider, began to tire. Munlochy Bay took full advantage and robbed the runner-up just before the line, winning by a length.

4.20 Market Rasen
Favours Brave - 1pt e/w @ 16-1 (Bet365)
Lose

Another one I got quite excited about when I saw the gamble from 16s into 8s, but again it wasn't to be. Favours Brave made the running and jumped well throughout, and the field moved well and was tightly enough packed till 3 out. Carlitos Spirit joined Favours Brave at the head of proceedings with about half a mile to travel, and kicked on with a great turn of pace when rounding the bend for home. After getting a good 15 lengths clear it was obvious he'd be uncatchable, and Tekthelot, Dzesmin, Knox Overstreet and Favours Brave battled for the minor prize money. Unfortunately Favours Brave just hadn't got it in the tank to give on the sprint for home, and finished a respectable 5th, 3 1/2 lengths behind the runner-up.

-1.56 pts for the day (rule4 applied to Titch Strider place)

Running total +32.2

On a brighter note, I spotted a horse in one of those races who I'm certain is being lined up for a big gamble, so he's gone into the notebook and fingers crossed we'll have a pay day out of him in the near future.

rodeo1985

4.10 Taunton
Caravel - 2pts @ 3-1 (PP)

Caravel has very impressive form, both on the flat and over hurdles, with lot's of 1's to his name in both codes. It's been a while since he's recorded a win over jumps though, and we need to go back to Feb 2010 to find it. He won that C3 handicap hurdle on good going off a mark of 127, and carried the same weight then as he carries in this C4 today. Since that win, he's only been running in C2 and C1 company, where he's notched up some good solid performances. He put in a highly impressive display last time out in the listed TOTESCOOP6 Summer Handicap Hurdle over 2m1f, where he carried 11-1 and finished 5/16, only 9 lengths short of the winner. The 4 horses finishing ahead of him are all now rated 129-139 over hurdles, and this fellow is only running off a generous 120 today. The favourite Oh Khee has some OK form, but has far too many question marks hanging over her head to entice me to back her at 5/4. I've read in places that a slow pace and a quick finish will suit her tomorrow, but I wouldn't be so sure of that with a proven flat horse like Caravel to contend with.

The only question mark I'd have over my selection is the amount of time he's been off the track. I am hoping that his debut run for his new yard is a race he's been prepared for and sent out to win, as opposed to a race he's being sent out to for a run. The early show of money always pleases me to see when I have a question mark like this over a horse, and he's been backed from 9-2 into 5-2 in places (ladbrokes) already. If he comes here tomorrow fully prepared, taking into consideration the huge step down in class (from a C1 to a C4), the suited going and trip, the proven pace should it come to a sprint for home, and the very generous mark of 120, I believe he's worth a punt at a price like 3-1 in a 5 runner field.

rodeo1985

4.20 Ludlow
Right Option - 1.5pt win @ 4-1 (bet365)

I was looking into this race and had picked out U B Carefull as my selection at 6-1, until I noticed a massive gamble on a horse who's recent form is pretty poor. I really don't like changing my mind once I've made a pick, but I couldn't ignore this one so I scratched below the surface a bit.

Right Option had been off the track since April 2010 until this January, when he reappeared in a 3m handicap hurdle on soft ground, followed by a 2m5f handicap hurdle on soft ground, pulling up both times. These two poor runs saw jockey Rhys Flint do the steering, and also saw Right Options rating drop from 113 to 105.

On his last two runs over hurdles on good/good to firm ground, he ran 3/10 in a C3 off 11-2 (120), and won a 2m5f C2 race around Cheltenham on good to firm ground off 10-4 (115). If he is anywhere near that form tomorrow he should run a great race, and I suspect he will.

This run see's 7lb claimer Thomas Flint take the ride, essentially dropping his mark another 7lbs to 98. The horse is trained by John Flint, was ridden in his last two races by Rhys Flint after which we saw this horses mark drop by 8, and is now ridden by Thomas Flint, who claims another 7. I'm not sure what the family relationship is (I'm assuming father and sons but I don't know that for sure), but it would appear that this has been lined up for a well planned gamble, and seeing the horses price drop from 8-1 into 4-1 not long after prices were released confirms this theory.

The good ground, the trip he's proven himself over, the very low mark, the fact they've given the ride to a claimer who appears to be a family member, and the market movement this evening all suggests that this horse will run a big race tomorrow, and if he's back anywhere near his form when winning around Cheltenham in Oct 2009, 4-1 still offers good value.

rodeo1985

Gutted I changed my mind on the 4.20, lesson learned, no more following gambles. Write up's to follow later...

Markgc

Great tipping. All the best with your log!!

rodeo1985

Just a quick note to say thanks for all the positive comments and messages, they're much appreciated. Hopefully we can keep the balance going in the right direction.

4.10 Taunton
Caravel - 2pts @ 3-1 (PP)
Win

My question mark over Caravel dispelled this afternoon when I saw the market movement on him, opening last night at 9-2 and being sent off at 5-4, and I was quite confident before the race that this fellow would put on a show. And he didn't disappoint, amid some controversy none the less...

Run Along Boy was the one who jumped off into an early lead, but Richard Johnson was keen to pick it up a notch and brought Caravel up front rather early on. The other gamble of the race, Aine's Delight, made a couple of mistakes in the opening stages, a particularly bad jump at one of the early hurdles sticks out in my mind, which was nice to see.

Caravel was joined up front by On Khee with 4 to jump and the pair travelled well side by side until turning the bend before the second last. Tom Scudamore attempted to get up Caravel's inside, some would argue there was no room to do so, others would say that Richard Johnson made sure there was no room to do so, but the result was the same, Oh Khee fell and from that point on the race was merely a formality, with Caravel comfortably crossing the line with about 10 lengths to spare over Run Along Boy.

4.20 Ludlow
Right Option - 1.5pt win @ 4-1 (bet365)
Lose

So Right Option to my extreme frustration proved to be the wrong option (sorry, couldn't help myself)! I picked out U B Carefull on form last night, and changed my mind last minute because of the gamble on Right Option which proved to be a schoolboy error on my behalf, and one I won't make again.

The blinkered Tayarat kicked off into an early lead, setting a very strong pace from the off. Our selection sat off the leaders left shoulders in a front running trio, and stayed at the head of proceedings throughout. At three out Thomas Flint began giving his mount a few shakes with U B Carefull always stalking a couple of lengths behind and travelling best of all. Two from home U B Carefull joined Right Option in the lead and when Matthew Barber asked his mount to kick on, kick on he did, the clear winner with 22 lengths to spare. Right Option did well to hang on for second place after his jockey reportedly lost both irons, doing well to stay on board over the last couple of obstacles, but irons or no irons, he'd never have beaten the winner.

+4.5 for the day

Running total +38.7

rodeo1985

4.30 Ffos Las
Hills Of Aran - 0.5pts e/w @ 40-1 (Bet365)

At the fear of being ridiculed, I'm going with a 40-1 shot in this race for minimal e/w stakes. Hills of Aran may not have the best form as of late, finishing 10/16 in the Betfred Midlands Grand National Chase over 4m1f, and unseating Charlotte Evans in 3m 2 1/2f chase previously, but he showed some promise in the two chases before that in late Jan and mid Feb, finishing 3rd in both.

I've gone back through this horses form, and most of his good run's came back in 2009, but they almost all came on either good, or good to firm ground too. When we look at his recent hurdles performances they've been poor enough, but 2 things to note. Leaving aside the last race, they've all been in higher class C1 and C2 races, which isn't really the company he should be keeping anymore, and secondly none of these races were run on his prefered good/good to firm ground.

In fact, the last race he ran over hurdles on good ground, and over his preferred trip of 2m4f (I say prefered trip because I believe all his best runs, in better class company, have been over this distance, although he has notched up some wins over 3m too), was when he ran in a Class 2 handicap hurdle off a mark of 150 and won back in March 2009. This race was run around Fontwell, which is left handed and not hugely dissimilar to Ffos Las. Prior to this win, he again ran in a Class 2 2m4 1/2f handicap hurdle (0-150) on good ground off a mark of 148, and finished 2nd. Prior to that again in Feb 2009, he ran in a Grade 2 race around Fontwell again off a mark of 148, and again over 2m4f on good ground, and finished an extremely respectable 3rd only 2 lengths behind the renowned Lough Derg. So the form was there, but is it still there? At 40-1 I'm happy to take a chance.

In summary, Hills of Aran has run poorly as of late, but race distances and particularly the ground conditions have been far from optimal. Last time we saw him run on his prefered going he won a C2 off 150. He is now stepping down to a C3 off 124 so you could argue that he's very well handicapped, back over his prefered trip of 2m4f on good going, on a course not dissimilar to Fontwell which was the scene of his last hurdles victory over the same distance and going. I'm hoping he jumps out in front tomorrow and makes all, I just cross my fingers that his best days aren't yet behind him.

Killed

120/1 on Betfair. Here's hoping.

rodeo1985

Haha, if the markets are anything to go by it looks like I've got this one horribly wrong so! I dunno though, I've just spoken to somebody who'd only walked the track, he told me the ground is good and drying which will hopefully suit. I'm a little surprised there hasn't been a nibble or two, and I honestly think he's way overpriced and will put in a better run that some of the shorter priced runners. I'll no doubt be eating those words by 4.35!

rodeo1985

oh dear, oh dear... shame that, was really lookin forward to seeing how he'd do at the business end of the race

rodeo1985

4.30 Ffos Las
Hills Of Aran - 0.5pts e/w @ 40-1 (Bet365)
Lose

Like I said earlier today, I was really disappointed this fellow didn't make it to the business end, because I do believe he'd have been a genuine contender, but we'll never know now. I thought Hills of Aran was going to jump out in front where he's comfortable, and I believe it was a mistake to keep him in mid-division.

Taffy Thomas took them along with my selection sitting in behind in 4th/5th. On the 4th flight of hurdles, Hills of Aran took a long jump and landed on top of a hurdle, bringing it and himself down, and that was that. Lava Lamp travelled well throughout and went on to be a worthy winner.

The decision to run this horse in behind the leading bunch is one that baffles me. He's too old to run in behind picking horses off as he got closer to the line, if he was to have any chance he needed to be ridden out front dictating the pace, where he's proven to be comfortable and where he's had success in the past. Adding to that I don't think he'd have jumped so long if he'd had a better view of the obstacle, which he would have done if he was ridden out front. But all of that is just speculation. At the end of the day the punt didn't work out and we'll move on to the next one, it's just a pity we didn't get a decent run for our money.

-1 on the day

Running total +37.7

rodeo1985

5.45 Newcastle
Jubail - 1pt e/w @ 4-1 (bet365)

Donald McCain's 5 year old has had two very impressive seasons, with some noteworthy performances such as a 5th in last years Fred Winter Juvinile Handicap Hurdle at the Cheltenham festival off 121, only about 10 lengths behind the winner What A Charm and finishing second behind Ultravox in a C2 handicap hurdle around Ascot again off 121 in his next race. Both of these performances came over 2 miles on good ground.

He had a few questionable performances over the next few months, all of which were in much better company than he'll find himself in tomorrow. These performances have seen his mark drop from 125 to 115. He was given a rest from Dec till March of this year, where he returned to finish a respectable 2nd in a C4 handicap hurdle around Huntingdon on heavy ground. On that basis I'm hoping the bad performances displayed at the end of last year are now behind him, and at his age I'm fully expecting him to improve for the run.

He comes to Newcastle tomorrow hopefully improved for his last run, off a mark of 115, competing in a C4 (which is a big drop from the races he performed well in around this time last year) and back to the good ground that he performed so well on as a 3 and 4 year old. The tongue tie seemed to do him no harm last time out, and is re-applied tomorrow. With that Donald McCains horses have been running well as of late, and he'll be keen to get this horse off the mark having 4 defeats to his name since joining the yard. He has a RacingPostRating of 123 which is the highest of all the horses in the race, and I'd tend to agree that he is the classiest horse in the field considering his achievements thus far at such a young age. I fully expect Jubail to be in the frame tomorrow, so at 4-1 I'll have a point each way.

MyStubbleItches

Got 6/4, thank you for my Saturday pints Rodeo. Will have one for you.

rodeo1985

No worries mate, enjoy!

rodeo1985

5.45 Newcastle
Jubail - 1pt e/w @ 4-1 (bet365)
Win

Victor Hewgo jumped off in front taking the quintet off at a slow enough gallop with Cool Baranca following in second and Jubail hugging the rail in third. This slow pace continued up to the fourth flight, where Rebel Dancer joined the leader and quickened up the pace. It quickened up again between the 5th and 6th flight, with Jubail always travelling well in behind the leading pair. A full on charge ensued approaching the second last, and all it took was a shake from Jason Maguire between the second last and the last to take Jubail a couple of lengths clear and after a great jump at the last nothing was ever going to catch him. Cool Baranca finished 3-4 lengths behind in second.

Unfortunately due to the withdrawals of Aneyeforaneye and Civil Unrest, there was a 35p to the pound rule 4 deduction. It's a pity they didn't run because neither would have beaten the convincing winner in my opinion.

Nothing jumps off the page at me for tomorrow so I won't be having a bet.

+3.25 pts for the day

Running total +40.95

hawkhead

Rodeo,

Your tips,write ups and post race analysis are fantastic mate. Keep up the good work

rodeo1985

Thanks Hawkhead.

I know I said I wasn't having a bet today, but I've only got around to looking at Stratford this morning and I've picked one out that I think represents value.

3.55 Stratford
Laterly - 1pt e/w @ 8-1 (Ladbrokes, best price guaranteed)

This is a tricky enough race with some serious contenders and the favourite Knight In Purple would have been my selection if I'd looked at the race last night when he was still available at 6-1. He loves the trip and the going which he proved when winning plenty of races last year in conditions similar to today. He came 2nd in a Grade 3 2m race around Haydock last May on good ground, beating last weeks winning selection Caravel that day by 4 lengths off level weights. However overnight market activity has seen his price drop to 3-1, which is too short for me. I'd sooner take an e/w punt on Laterly at 8-1. Since last November, Laterly has been sent out chasing running all of these races on good to soft/soft ground. He's done ok but his jumping has been somewhat questionable and I believe switching him back to the smaller obstacles is a wise move.

His previous run over hurdles saw him run around Aintree off 11-2 in a C3 (0-140) 2m1f race on good ground, and although finishing 6/11, he was right in contention jumping the last and just tired on the long run in. He pulled up in a C1 prior to that where he ran on good to soft ground off a career top mark of 126, but before that he'd won 2 in a row, a C4 novices hurdle over 2m around Southwell on good ground, and a 2m1f C3 (0-135) handicap hurdle around Aintree on good ground, both off a mark of 114 and convincingly winning the latter by 11 lengths after making all.

The 7 year old arrives at Stratford today off a reasonable mark of 123, however 7lb claimer Paul Bohan who works at the Steve Gollings yard can claim 10lbs off this horse today as he is employed by the trainer, a rule which has been introduced in the UK as an incentive for trainers to give prospective riders working for the yard a chance. I know nothing about Bohan, other than that he works for the yard, so I'm assuming he'll know the horse, his likes/dislikes and they will have some kind of rapport, which I'm looking at as a positive. It's always a concern when such an inexperienced rider is on board your selection, but Laterly is and always has been a front runner, who will make all till the 2nd last or last, and either continue powering on home, or tire out and be picked off. However the point I'm making is that it's an easy enough job for Bohan and about the only mistake he can make is going off to quick, which I'm hoping he wont. The reward for this risk is essentially a drop in mark from 123 to 113, which is 1lb lower than when winning a 0-135 C3 around Aintree last May on good ground by 11 lengths, and if he can get around today mistake free and is still out in front approaching the last, he couldn't be too far away when crossing the line.

rodeo1985

3.55 Stratford
Laterly - 1pt e/w @ 8-1

Saturdays don't seem to be my day...

The inexperienced rider was both a blessing and a hindrance. He rode his mount perfectly through the race, out in front where he likes to be, but not too quick either. He was still out in front jumping the second last but when the battle heated up going over the last he looked nervous and I think a more experienced rider would have driven Laterly into a place, but the argument could be made that he wouldn't have been there to be driven if he was 10lbs heavier. I wouldn't for a minute blame Bohan, and all things considered he gave this horse a very good ride, it's just a shame he didn't nick third. The gamble of the race Laudatory deservedly took the honours.

-2 for the day

Running total +38.95

ft9

:eek:

Where has this thread been all my life?

hawkhead

Surprise Vendor who Rodeo tipped on the first page of this thread ran again on Monday and guess what he duly obliged @ 40/1.

Maybe that's why he hasn't updated the past few days, he's still out partying with all his winnings

rodeo1985

4.20 Ludlow
Elsafeer 1.45pts @ 3-1 (PP, Lads)


This looks to be a tight enough race, with 3 or 4 horses all having proper claims. Bin End won a claiming hurdle over C+D here only 8 days ago, and will enjoy being back over the C+D, however the handicapper has adequately penalised the horse for the run, and he steps up to much better company today. Dubai Crest won a better race around Doncaster last December off 118 on good to soft ground, however has run badly twice this year in races which were worse than that, off only a slightly higher mark, and although I don't think he'll find the better ground a problem, running off 120 today I just fear he'll fail to deliver again. Reste Goose may well give a better account of himself on his handicap debut, but he hasn't impressed me in his novices runs to date, and there are far too many question marks hanging over his head to back him at 7/2. Red Skipper is another I can't back at 7/2. He has been a nearly horse so many times in the recent past, coming 2nd again last time out in a 2m 0-125 handicap hurdle around Stratford on good ground, and has received a 3lb penalty for his efforts. He hasn't proven in the past to like a battle at the finish, and I could well see him being afraid to get his head in front approaching the line once more tomorrow. Funnily enough I don't think the longshot of the race Tayarat is without his chance. He won here in Feb (only 4 races ago) over the same distance and going as tomorrow, in a C3 0-125 which is the same as tomorrow's. Hasn't produced much in the 3 races that followed having risen from 97 to 106. He's only down to 104 now following 3 average races, which, along with his inconsistency, concerns me but it'll be no shock to me if he runs a blinder and Alice Mills steers again today as she did over C+D in Feb. The one I've picked out to beat them is top weight Elsafeer.

Elsafeer has proven himself in the past to be a proper talent, winning a 2m Class1 Novices hurdle last October around Kempton on good ground off 119. His form for the 4 races prior to that reads 1212, 3 of them being C4 Novice/Maiden hurdles, one a C5 maiden, all of which were run on good/good to firm ground. After his C1 Novice win he went on to run 10/13 in a C1 handicap hurdle over 2m in Ascot, but the step up in class along with the 10lb rise in his mark proved too much for him on that occasion. He's run twice since returning to the track in Feb this year, a 2m3f C3 handicap hurdle in which he finished 9/10 off a mark of 128, followed up by a 2m4f C1 novices hurdle in which he showed an improved run finishing 10/18 off 125. I think he had excuses in both of those races. The C3 was his first race back after a 4 month break, and he ran it off a mark of 128 on good to soft ground, which aren't his ideal conditions. In my opinion, the trip wasn't optimal either. The company in his next race was alot better than the one prior, and he showed an improved performance again over unideal conditions and trip.

Tomorrow's race see's him drop back to C3 company, drop back to his proven 2m trip, drop down in rating to 123, and is run on his preferred good ground. Richard Johnson back on board for the first time this year is also a positive. After I analysed the race I picked this horse out as my prefered selection, and when I checked the prices I had mixed feelings about the market movement on him already. I was disappointed to have missed the opening price of 5-1 which was available at 4.30 today (it's an awful shame I have to work till 6!), but also encouraged to see that there was market support for him as it's generally a good sign. At 3-1 he's still very close in price to the 7-2 about both the unproven Reste Gosse and the questionable Red Skipper. He's proven to like tomorrows going and trip, and I believe he has improved after both his races this year and has however seen his mark drop to a favourable 123 for a horse of his proven class. At 3-1 I still feel Elsafeer offers value, and would have expected him to be priced up a bit shorter initially by the bookmakers, slightly surprised to see he opened at 5's, will also be surprised to see him go off anything bigger than 5/2. Will round the current bank balance off to a .5 figure by sticking another .45pts on him at 3-1, which is currently still available in Ladbrokes.

rodeo1985

rodeo1985 wrote: »

3.00 Kelso
Suprise Vendor 1pt e/w @ 25-1 (bet365)


Suprise Vendor won on this course in a higher class race in December. Granted off a much lower weight than he's carrying tomorrow, and he hasn't really performed since the raise in weights. But I think he's had his excuses. On his next start after winning he was risen from a mark of 104 to 112, and never really traveled in this much higher class race prior to a fall when running on soft ground. The next was run on heavy ground and the combination of the 11-8 he was carrying along with the heavy ground never suited, and he was pulled up after making a few errors. The going for tomorrows race has been reported as good, which should make the 6 year olds job carrying 11-6 easier than he's found in the races previous, and at a massive 25-1, I'll take an each way punt and hope for an improved run.

Indeed, the long shot proved the bookies wrong. Unfortunately I was boozing all day Sunday so I never looked at the Monday racing, but I was delighted to see that I wasn't completely off the wall when I suggested backing this horse at a big price a week of so before. The race was run on the same course and a slightly longer trip (1 1/2f more). The better conditions and the stronger pace set in this race definitely suited Suprise Vendor, who stayed on much better this time with the quicker trip. The race last week was run at a crawl, which didn't suit our pick one bit when it came to the sprint finish over the final two furlongs, but Monday's race couldn't have gone any better and I'm delighted to see him win. Also delighted for my mate Kev who had a few quid on at 40's well done lad!

Clinto22

wow your mate Kev must be showering you in pints to say thanks!

@hawkhead - Endeavor was also previously tipped by Rodeo and finished second in the race that Surprise Vendor won.

rodeo1985

4.20 Ludlow
Elsafeer 1.45pts @ 3-1 (PP, Lads)
Lose

Well this one was abit of a disaster, and about the only prediction I got right was that he'd go off no better than 5/2. Teyarat took them off at a right clip with the field all within about 7-8 lengths, and Elsafeer sat over his left shoulder until weakening 3 out. With 3 to jump Richard Johnson was working very hard on the favourite, who soon began to fade, with the quick pace and the slight cut in the ground seemingly taking its toll. Red Skipper who I though hadn't the bottle to win the race took it up coming to the second last and was never caught. Shows you what I know!

-1.45 for the day

Running Total +37.5

rodeo1985

4.10 Newton Abbot
Terfel’s Toscar – 2pt win @ 7/2 (bet365)

A horse I backed last time out runs again today in this race – Titch Strider. She ran a really great race last time out and did great to finish second, but she sees a 3lb rise in ratings, and loses a 3lb claimer in the form of Conor O’Farrell so runs 6lbs heavier than the last day. She also runs an extra 2f here today and there’s question marks about the extended trip too, so I’ll oppose this time.

The horse I like in this race is Terfel’s Toscar. This is a horse who has been very lightly raced only running 4 times over hurdles, but with the exception of his introductory race, has always run and performed well. He ran twice last year in March and April, his first being a C4 Novices Hurdle on good to soft ground over 2m4f, and he finished 3/6, however the two horses who beat him that day have gone on to achieve marks of 103 and 115. His next outing was over 2m4 1/2f around Uttoxeter on good ground, this time in a C4 Maiden where he ran a cracker off top weight, finishing second to Mostly Bob who’s now rated 123, and giving him 7lbs that day too.

He was unraced from April 2010 until turning out in Hereford this March in a C5 Novices Handicap Hurdle over 2m 6 1/2f on soft ground, where he finished a very respectable 4/12 for new trainer David Pipe off top weight. He looked to be the horse to beat until he tired with about 2 flights to jump, but he’ll certainly improve for that run. His rating wasn’t touched after the race so he still runs off 95, and the good ground being reported for tomorrow will make the weight burden easier. This race also see’s the more than capable 3lb claimer Conor O’Farrell take the ride, which reduces the burden even more. Good ground will be ideal, but good to soft should be ok too. The racing post have rated this horse 77 and I can’t for the life of me see how. David Pipe’s horses have also been running very well lately, and he’ll be keen to break this lads duck, so I fully expect him to at least place here tomorrow.

1.45 Carlisle
Swift Arrow – 1pt e/w @ 8-1 (bet365)

Swift Arrow makes his handicap debut tomorrow in this Class4 hurdle over 2m1f. He’s lightly raced over hurdles too, having only competed in 2 Class4 Novice races, his first in Ayr in late Jan, and his second in Hexham in mid-March. The run around Ayr was over 2m on soft ground in a Class4 Novices Hurdle, and it saw Swift Arrow finish in 3rd place of 7, 15 lengths behind the 122 and 126 rated winning pair. He went on from this to run 4/11 in Hexham over 2m 1/2f on good ground and only finished 5 ½ lengths behind the eventual winner Hidden off level weights, who has achieved a mark of 117 following that run.

Dr. Flynn is likely to set a decent pace tomorrow which will suit the improving 6 year old, and although the going has been reported as good, the weather forecast predicts rain tonight in Carlisle which will do my selection no harm at all, who will be better off with a slight cut in the ground. Donald McCain’s horses have run brilliantly over the past 14 days, he’s had 31 runners with 12 of these winning and another 6 achieving places. Hopefully that hit rate will increase tomorrow, and I also have my fingers crossed that this horse will continue to improve with the switch to handicaps.

rodeo1985

2.15 Carlisle
Rupert Bear - 1pt e/w @ 10-1

Rupert Bear isn’t an obvious choice for this race if you were to glance at his form, having run less than average in his bumpers and hurdles outings last year. His best finish in a bumper was 8/15, and he ran 6/12 in a C5 Maiden Hurdle last November on good to soft ground around Newcastle, and he pulled up in a C4 2m 6f Novices Hurdle run on the same track over 2m6f in December. That’s the bad news.

Now on to the good news. After pulling up in Newcastle last December he was given a break until reappearing in a C4 Novices Hurdle run over 2m 1/2f around Hexham. His performance that day was nothing short of miraculous given his previous form, and if he’d have kept a bit closer to the leaders earlier on in the race I think he’d have nicked a place. He ran that day off 10st7lbs, and was beaten a short head by Gottany O’S who ran off 10-13 but is rated 129 over hurdles, and about 9 lengths by Guess Again, who ran off 11st but is rated 115. Rupert Bear was only given a mark of 92 following that run, which to me looks too low considering he was only beaten a short head by a horse rated 37 more than he is, having only been given 6lbs by him in that race.

Tomorrows 2m1f race around a similar testing track (although going right handed this time), again on similar ground (good reported, but won’t be surprised to see good to soft) should suit him again. He run’s tomorrow off a favourable enough mark of 92, but carries a 7lb claimer, Miss C Walton, who essentially lowers this mark to 85. I’m not sure who she is, but she’s ridden this horse on all his previous runs, the horse is trained by James Walton (who I’m assuming is a relation) and owned by “Messers F T Walton” (again a family connection no doubt), so she’ll be very familiar with the horse if nothing else. If he can run up to the same standard as his Hexham race 13 days ago, and there’s no reason why he shouldn’t, he should be in with a live chance here.

rodeo1985

ur kiddin me, beaten in a photo tops off a really crap day...! beer time...

rodeo1985

1.45 Carlisle
Swift Arrow – 1pt e/w @ 8-1 (bet365)
Lose

The heavily gambled on Toledo Gold took them off, made all and deservedly won off a feather weight of 10-2. It was a nicely organised gamble and fair play to Maurice Barnes and connections.

However, this is the only one of the 3 I was really disappointed with. I don't think the ride Swift Arrow was given did justice to the horse. From the get go he jumped off right out the back, which I think was mistake number one. He ran out at the back of the field and with about 5 to jump he moved from almost being the back marker to joining Toledo Gold in the lead. In my eyes that was mistake number 2 and the energy expended making that move cost him any chance of being in the shake up. With two to jump the horse was exhausted and traveled back down through the field, ending up in 7th position some 36 lengths behind the winner. The horse was obviously keen to tear off but I'd have much sooner seen him held up around midfield tracking the leaders, and then have him let him go to take his chances between the 2nd last and last.

2.15 Carlisle
Rupert Bear - 1pt e/w @ 10-1
Lose

For some reason the race replay on racking uk is only showing the last 30 seconds or so of this race, and I can't remember too much about it so this will be short and sweet! But I've no complaints about Rupert Bear here, he simply wasn't good enough and Dartford Warbler went on to score again for Sue Smith over C+D. I backed him last time, and did like his chances for yesterdays race, but at 2-1 he was just abit too short for me to back.

4.10 Newton Abbot
Terfel’s Toscar – 2pt win @ 7/2 (bet365)
Lose

Hard luck story of the day goes to Terfel's Toscar!

There was a big gamble on Kayfton Pete who was making his debut for the Michael Scudamore yard after recently moving across from Nikki Evans's, which saw him go off favorite. He took them off and ran about 5 lengths out ahead of the field with Terfel's Toscar heading up the following bunch. It remained like this until after the 8th flight, where it then became a 3 horse race between Kayfton Pete, Terfel's Toscar, and the nicely travelling Fashion Week. When Terfel's Toscar put it up to Kayfton Pete coming to the second last he had no reply, and a great battle ensued to the line between Terfel's Toscar and Fashion Week, with the latter claiming the photo finish win by a nose. I was gutted!

-6pts on the day

Running Total +31.5

rodeo1985

I'll caveat this selection by say I know nothing about flat racing! Not that I know a whole lot about the jumps stuff, but I've been able to pick out some value here and there. With no UK jumps racing until Thursday, it's becoming obvious to me that I'll have to get my head around the flat stuff if I want to keep punting through the Summer months, which I do. So with that in mind, I'm going to follow a similar approach to the one I take when picking horses in jumps races and I'm going to keep the stakes very low to begin with. I've thought about just backing straight wins instead of the e/w bets I've become accustomed to over the past while, and although it would show a higher profit if I'd been following that strategy from the beginning, it's obviously riskier, and my main aim for the time being is to keep in the green, so I'll stick to the e/w's where there's an e/w price.

4.40 Nottingham
Sheila's Buddy - 0.5pt e/w @ 13/2 (bet365)

Although he's the top weight in the race, Sheila's Buddy seems to be the one horse who has proved himself over tomorrow's trip on the good to soft ground being reported when winning a C5 0-75 2yo race over 1m2f46yds around the left handed Bath racecourse last September. He won this race off a mark of 67, and runs only 3lbs heavier tomorrow off 70. Nottingham is also a very similar track to Bath, both being left-handed galloping tracks, and I've read there is no real draw bias in Nottingham over the longer trips, so being drawn in stall 9 shouldn't be a problem.

He comes here tomorrow off the back of a win over the trip on Wolverhampton's all-weather surface when re-appearing in early March after a four month break. This has led me to the assumption that the horse has developed well over the four month break and should (at least in theory) show improvement when being reintroduced to the turf tomorrow, so the 3lb raise shouldn't be an issue. He's been victorious in both his previous runs over 10f which were both in C5 races, and all his poorer runs have been over shorter distances so it does seem to be his trip.

The 3 horses heading the market - Neils Pride, Joyful Spirit and Bevis Market - all have question marks hanging over them. Neil's Pride, although off a very low weight and finishing really well in his final race last season, he comes here today with only 3 races under his belt, the longest of which being run over 7f, 3f shorter than tomorrows distance. Joyful Spirit is another who's unproven over the trip, and her only race on good to soft ground was pretty average. John Dunlop hasn't had too many runners lately, with none of the few he has had catching the eye so you couldn't say the yard is in any sort of form. Bevis Marks has only run 3 times, in 3 C5 Maidens, two of which he finished last in, the other he finished 4/6. These were all over 8f, 2 being run on the AW, the other on good ground in Sandown. He'll appreciate running in a handicap tomorrow but with uncertainty over the horses will to win, the trip and the going, I'd have to strike a line through him too.

For me, 13/2 about Sheila's Buddy offers good value. He's proven twice in the past to like the trip, the conditions shouldn't be any problem nor should the track. Liam Keniry steers today as he has done in most of the horse's previous races, including the 2 wins, and if he show's the improvement that I expect him to, the fact he's top weight shouldn't be an issue. Hopefully he'll prove to be rated a few pounds to the good.

rodeo1985

4.40 Nottingham
Sheila's Buddy - 0.5pt e/w @ 13/2
Place

Joyful Spirit jumped out front well from a wide draw to lead them along, with Bevis Market in close contention. Liam Keniry tucked Sheila's Buddy right in at the back. The placings remained as is until coming twords the final 3 furlongs, where Joyful Spirit kicked on for home and went a couple of lengths clear, while Bevis Market quickly faded. 2f out Dorry K and Neils Pride looked to be the real dangers and with 1f to go Sheila's Buddy made a cracking run up the outside and was just beaten a head by Dorry K who stayed on well. The extra bit of weight our selection was carrying proved to be all the difference.

+0.3pts for the day

Running Total +31.8

rodeo1985

2.45 Folkstone
School Fees 0.5pts e/w @ 9-1 (Bet365)
Star Kingdom 0.5pts e/w @ 12-1 (Bet365)

The top of the betting market again looks suspect to me in this race, particularly Mayo Lad and Light Burst. The former is a half brother to Canford Cliffs running out of the Richard Hannon yard, but showed very little in his 3 Maiden starts last year. The latter is owned by Godolphin and trained by Mahmood Al Zarooni, but his form looks worse than Mayo Lads, who both seem to be handicapped accordingly. Looking at form alone, neither of these offer any value for me. Along with these two at the head of the pint are Al Freej and Welease Brian, both of whom have decent all weather form, but have shown nothing on the turf yet.

The two that stick out to me like a pair of sore thumbs are School Fees and Star Kingdom, both at very generous prices. School Fees has run in a C4 Maiden, 2 C5 Maidens and a C5 Nursery, the last two being over 6f, and her form figures read 3233. Looking into her last two starts abit further would indicate very promising signs to me. Her second last race was a C5 Maiden over tomorrows C+D, and she was only beaten a head by Ewell Place, who's official turf rating is now 98 having followed up this race with a great run in a C2 Yearling Stakes race over the same distance, finishing 3rd of 20 runners. That day Ewell Place only carried 4lbs more than my selection, and only won by a head. I calculate that he should have won by about 4 lengths. In her last race she was beaten 6 lengths by Stepper Point, and here is the racing post comment under School Fees name for tomorrows race - "Beaten 6l off this mark in sole nursery; needs more after a break". This baffles me. Fair enough she needs to show improvement, but you could say that about all horses returning to the track as 3 yr olds. She was beaten that day by a horse now rated 108, not some mickey mouse pony. Thats a 34lb difference in ratings. I'm using a conservative calc of 3lbs per length, and if thats roughly correct there's still a 16lb difference to account for, which in simple terms means I think the winner should have won by about 6 lengths more, and thats a big difference over 6f even if you take into account the fact he was eased down. She's proven before that the straight track won't be a problem, nor will the good ground, and in short I think this horse is under handicapped and over priced.

It's a similar enough story for Star Kingdom, who has run 4 times to date, twice on the all weather where he's shown nothing, and twice on the turf where he's put in a couple of handy enough efforts. Both races were run over tomorrows distance, the first of which was a C5 Maiden run in Windsor last August over a straight 6 furlongs. It was his first race, and he ran well enough finishing about 6 lengths off the winner that day. His next turf outing showed a little more promise. He ran a C4 Maiden in Newbury, again over a straight 6 furlongs (which is what tomorrows race will be run over), and finished a respectable 5/11 considering the company he was in. He finished about 4 1/2 lengths off the winner that day off level weights, with the winner now rated 96, or 28lbs higher than Star Kingdom. To me 4.5 lengths equates to about 14lbs, which I believe leaves our pick 14lbs to the good. This is further backed up if we look at the runner up Glen Moss, who he finished only 2 1/2 lengths behind also off level weights. Glen Moss is now rated 87, and this again indicates to me that Star Kingdom is still 11-12lbs to the good tomorrow. That and the fact he's run the trip on turf twice now, both occasions on straight tracks on goodish ground (one GF, one GS), putting in decent performances both times would suggest to me that 12-1 is a big price.

I reckon if one of these was coming from the Hannon yard and the other was owned by Godolphin they'd be the top 2 in the market!

rodeo1985

On the train to Aintree and the signal is poor here so I'll keep the reasoning short and sweet.

4.05 Leicester
Grand Gold - 0.5pt win @15-2 (William Hills)

Has run 3 times this year over shorter distances and has been steadily improving. Ran well 3 days ago claiming 3rd place in a 1m2f C5. No shortage in stamina and should prefer the longer trip. Not given a penalty after his last run and Matthew Lawson takes off another 5lbs.

5.05 Sedgefield
Suprise Vendor - 1pt win @ 3-1 (PP)

Missed out on the big price win on this fellow the last time out, after picking him out at a big price the week previous. Has won over todays C+D before, also won his last race over 2m2f in Kelso, and won a C3 Handicap Hurdle on soft ground in December over 2m2f as well. Comes here off the back of a win with a 4lb rise in mark, the Sedgefield track is very similar to Kelso where he's performed so well in the past, and if there's a bit of pace in the race today he should be there or there abouts. Wouldn't take him at anything shorter than 3's though as there's some decent competition today.