General Fantasy Football Chat

KevIRL

DazzlerIE wrote: »

Also - We should do some sort of FPL awards at the end of the season

categories like - Worst value FPL player, best value FPL player, best team, most surprising team, favourite FPL player, most disappointing player, player who will absolutely be in your starting XI next year, best team name you've seen etc

could be a good idea

Not a bad idea. Also a category for most retarded rant/argument on the forum. There has been a few tbf

KevIRL

DazzlerIE wrote: »

Was talking to one of my mates last night and he was asking me why I think I did better this year in FF than in previous years. I came up with the theory that actually not getting to watch a lot of games is helping me, because I'm avoiding knee jerking players in based on one performance

Have to just rely on the stats

Wonder what Carlcon thinks about this? You live in California don't you?

carlcon wrote: »

You know what... this exact thing came to mind when the guy currently behind me in the Boards league made a post yesterday or the day before, and I noticed his location is set to "USA". That's 3 of the current top players in Boards all in North America. I was trying to figure out if that had any relevance.

My explanation for my own relative success was accepting that stats and professional opinion trumps my opinion tenfold. I relied heavily on BBC Radio5Live commentary during the first half of the season, where I was getting constant stats, facts, and up to date opinion from ex players and managers before, during, and after games. Didn't matter what games I saw, or who I thought played well... I went with them.

It's no coincidence that I've mostly sucked over the last few months, as I've been watching more games as opposed to getting more info.

So yeah... I think there's definitely something to your theory.

Regardless of watching matches or not, kneejerking a player in is rarely a good idea. I actually think too much importance is given to players rising in price and would rarely make a transfer before Friday of a gameweek. Granted if I knew the player I wanted would go up by 0.1 and that would mean I couldnt afford him then I might, but overall while its useful to keep an eye on crackthecode and price risers/fallers its not the be all and end all. Far more important to take some time to consider your transfer imo.

Also, too many people give up waaaay too easily and start taking point hits, and making gambles based on hunches. It's probably the biggest FF cliché but the game really is a marathon not a sprint. Keeping the head and not going nuts after a few bad GW's in a row is really important to decent finish.

Finally, transfer point hits. Avoid avoid avoid avoid. The minimum possible over the season.

carlcon

DazzlerIE wrote: »

Also - We should do some sort of FPL awards at the end of the season

categories like - Worst value FPL player, best value FPL player, best team, most surprising team, favourite FPL player, most disappointing player, player who will absolutely be in your starting XI next year, best team name you've seen etc

could be a good idea

Absoultely. I mentioned it a few weeks back, asking for ideas. A few good ones came up (along with the obvious)...

Best player
Best bargain
Biggest flop
Best GK/Def/Mid/Fwd
Best individual performance
Worst single event of the season (like a red card that effected lots, or conceding a last minute goal when you have a keeper and 2 defenders on a clean sheet).

KevIRL wrote: »

Not a bad idea. Also a category for most retarded rant/argument on the forum. There has been a few tbf

Can't complain about retarded arguments if you're going to suggest starting one like that.

Jimmy Iovine

KevIRL wrote: »

Finally, transfer point hits. Avoid avoid avoid avoid. The minimum possible over the season.

That's huge. I've taken none and I'm doing my best ever. My friend has nearly taken 100 points at this stage and I'm leading him by that score.

Also the fact I've nothing to do all day helps big time. I can spend ages looking up players or watching games. Won't have any time next year or the year after really so I'm not expecting to do well at all.

Dempsey

I've watched more games than I ever had and this is by far my best season. My worst season was when I was living in Australia and saw few matches and struggled for internet access and waning interest.

I think the main reason for my improvement is that this is the first season I've used the FISO and contributed to the FPL thread & forum on boards.ie this season. I've been more aware of injuries, DGW's, players coming into form from people regularly contributing and discussing the pros and cons of players.

Biggest knee jerk I made this season was getting in RVP 5 minutes after that chelsea game, should have knee jerked him in sooner!

dublinhead

DazzlerIE wrote: »

Was talking to one of my mates last night and he was asking me why I think I did better this year in FF than in previous years. I came up with the theory that actually not getting to watch a lot of games is helping me, because I'm avoiding knee jerking players in based on one performance

Have to just rely on the stats

Wonder what Carlcon thinks about this? You live in California don't you?

I am based in the states and I agree with your theory that not watching games is helping you do well. I have watched about 5 games the whole season. I do my selections based on stats, form and using http://www.fiso.co.uk. Being away from the skysports hype and reading sports sections from the papers probably also helps. Luck has alot to do with it!
I am 221 in the world and having my best season yet.

kevthegaff

what ye think of making bendner captain, im 80 pts off the leader. i also have 11 inc yaya. would ye take a 4pt hit to bring in silva or walcott for yaya. thanks

manual_man

kevthegaff wrote: »

what ye think of making bendner captain, im 80 pts off the leader. i also have 11 inc yaya. would ye take a 4pt hit to bring in silva or walcott for yaya. thanks

no yaya should play against Norwich keep him, Bendtner seems like a good bet for captain

S.M.B.

DazzlerIE wrote: »

Was talking to one of my mates last night and he was asking me why I think I did better this year in FF than in previous years. I came up with the theory that actually not getting to watch a lot of games is helping me, because I'm avoiding knee jerking players in based on one performance

Have to just rely on the stats

Wonder what Carlcon thinks about this? You live in California don't you?

I'm thinking momentum has had a massive influence on how well you've done this season.

Relying on stats v live games surely couldn't have that much of an effect.

Mr Moon

I went against my spreadsheet and brought in a player to make it 9 for this week, will take a 4 point hit next week now!!

carlcon

S.M.B. wrote: »

I'm thinking momentum has had a massive influence on how well you've done this season.

Relying on stats v live games surely couldn't have that much of an effect.

Presuming SMB doesn't stand for Sir Matt Busby, who has returned from the grave to have a go at FF, your opinions on football are a lot less relevant than stats*. As are mine, and Dazzler's, and all of ours.

What we perceive to be good when we watch a game may not necessarily make it so.

A big thing I noticed since I started regularly posting here at the start of the season is that most people value their own opinions as much as they value the opinions of pros, managers, ex-players, etc... if not more. That's the first and worst mistake most of us make, I find.

Just look at how often you'll read "I have a feeling X is due a good run", "Y is due a goal", "Z has hit the bar 2725 times this season, that's bound to turn into goals". All speculation, gut feelings, and general wish-washy nonsense. From what I've seen from most of the top players, none of them do this. Or at least do it very rarely.

The alternative to this? One of two things; Stats or Pro advice. And while trying to avoid speaking on behalf of others, I can say with absolute certainty that those two things are the reason for my relative success this season.

I don't see how Dazzler's success can come down to momentum, because if you look at how his points have been scored, he's adapted and refreshed his team a number of times. Any "momentum" has come from his good choices... not dropping certain players when everyone else did, getting in top players before others, etc. And if he says most of those decisions come from looking at stats, then I'm obliged to accept that since that's pretty much how I try to manage my own team.

*Just so we're clear, since this place can turn heated at the slightest slip of wording: I don't mean just your opinion, I mean all of our opinions are somewhat less useful than stats and pro advice.

S.M.B.

Not sure you can put that down to just the occasional slip of wording to be honest.

Anyway, I still stick my opinion that momentum has had a massive impact on his success. Getting off to a good start means that you're in a position where you can limit your need to take risks. It allows you to be somewhat reactive in terms of transfers. It allows you to go with the most logical captain decision on a weekly basis as opposed to trying to take a chance elsewhere in the hope that it works out.

I'd be interested to hear more about your use of stats though. Sure even saying that one uses stats to assist them in game could mean anything from making transfers based on the form filter on the listings page to analysing hundreds of excel spreadsheets for each player.

carlcon

Best example I can give is Demba Ba. Took many weeks to get him for most people, because they had to watch him play and see his goalscoring ability for themselves before he was considered the player he turned out to be.

I, on the other hand, heard about his transfer and immediately looked up his stats. His goalscoring record was phenomenal, so I had him bookmarked to be in my team from the start.

Then further stats and info told me he practised Ramadan, so wouldn't be fully healthy and available to play, which means I didn't waste time on him right away.

As soon as Ramadan ended and he showed himself to be a first team starter, I got him in. And benefited right away, while others took 2, 3, 4 weeks to cop onto him. That was one of the key factors in my climb to the top in the Boards league.

I take no credit for spotting his ability. Simply looked at the stats, and listened to praise from some pros. I could give similar stories about a few others too, but I guess Ba is the most stand-out.

Not sure you can put that down to just the occasional slip of wording to be honest.

Thankfully, some of us can choose to not react to hostile comments like that.

S.M.B.

Newcastle sign Ba, you look at an impressive goal scoring history, you take note of high praise from his fellow pros, you realise he practises Ramadan, you wait for him to gain a first team place, he scores a hat trick you bring him in instantly.

Ok, well that to me is just making an informed decision as opposed to playing the game based on stats. I thought you were bringing some sabremetrics like approach to the game.

I do agree that making decisions like that are massively important. However, I could easily give a similar story based on footballing opinion as opposed to stats and pro opinion.

carlcon

S.M.B. wrote: »

I do agree that making decisions like that are massively important. However, I could easily give a similar story based on footballing opinion as opposed to stats and pro opinion.

Well there's the key... have those footballing opinion-based moves worked enough times put you in the top 20 in the world like Dazzler's stats-based moves, or top 100/200 like mine? I'm not saying a fans opinion can't ever work... I'm saying it'll *almost* never work consistently enough to be a top 20/50/100 player.

And I know it's bad science to start at a conclusion (the top 3 players here are abroad and don't see as much as others) and then try to find information to back it up, but I struggle to put it down to simply coincidence. There must be something that separates one group from another.

Cantona's Collars

I know of one guy who actually knows very little about football,he admits he's not even that fond of it.The thing is he does very well in FF due to the fact he's obsessive about the stats and uses several sites to judge which players to bring in or get rid of and doesn't bother with any other method bar this methodical almost scientific approach.

carlcon

zerks wrote: »

I know of one guy who actually knows very little about football,he admits he's not even that fond of it.The thing is he does very well in FF due to the fact he's obsessive about the stats and uses several sites to judge which players to bring in or get rid of and doesn't bother with any other method bar this methodical almost scientific approach.

That's pretty much how I've been this season, but also adding input from BBC pundits (not the arses on MotD, the radio lads are 10x better). I wouldn't say I'm "not fond", just less bothered than I used to be about getting to games and watching them religiously.

It's no science, but making it as scientific as possible is key, IMO.

Jimmy Iovine

Playing with your head rather than your heart is the way to go. I know of lads who never got in Evans because they think he's ****. 5 CSs in a row says he's not.

I know of another guy who baulked on RVP because he couldn't trust a one man team and thought he'd get injured anyway. He tried to get him in a few weeks ago but he has risen too much in value. that lad hasn't a clue about football and doesn't like anyone really other than United. He ignored RVP's amazing strike rate and now he's paying the price.

Then another guy getting in three Spurs players. He's obsessed with Spurs but unfortunately the three he got in were Bale, VDV and Modric.

Cantona's Collars

Jimmy Iovine wrote: »

Playing with your head rather than your heart is the way to go. I know of lads who never got in Evans because they think he's ****. 5 CSs in a row says he's not.

I know of another guy who baulked on RVP because he couldn't trust a one man team and thought he'd get injured anyway. He tried to get him in a few weeks ago but he has risen too much in value. that lad hasn't a clue about football and doesn't like anyone really other than United. He ignored RVP's amazing strike rate and now he's paying the price.

Then another guy getting in three Spurs players. He's obsessed with Spurs but unfortunately the three he got in were Bale, VDV and Modric.

I laugh at these guys,club bias doesn't come into it with FF.Just look at these threads here,there's supporters of a variety of clubs and even United & Liverpool fans for the most part can have civil discussions about football.They even agreed that Suarez is muck as a FF pick.
It's definitely a heads over hearts game but I still feel dirty when wishing a rival teams player would do well for the sake of a few points.

S.M.B.

carlcon wrote: »

Well there's the key... have those footballing opinion-based moves worked enough times put you in the top 20 in the world like Dazzler's stats-based moves, or top 100/200 like mine? I'm not saying a fans opinion can't ever work... I'm saying it'll *almost* never work consistently enough to be a top 20/50/100 player.

And I know it's bad science to start at a conclusion (the top 3 players here are abroad and don't see as much as others) and then try to find information to back it up, but I struggle to put it down to simply coincidence. There must be something that separates one group from another.

Well I still tend to disagree and 32 weeks isn't really enough of a sample size to prove a theory like this anyway.

I still think that having a good start and being able to play a cautious and disciplined game for the entire season is the key as opposed to relying on stats vs first hand knowledge.

If come the same time next year we're in a similar position I'll gladly put my hands up and say I was wrong though.

bucketybuck

S.M.B. wrote: »

Well I still tend to disagree and 32 weeks isn't really enough of a sample size to prove a theory like this anyway.

I still think that having a good start and being able to play a cautious and disciplined game for the entire season is the key as opposed to relying on stats vs first hand knowledge.

Backed up by the fact that the guy leading most of the year had Hilario and Ferguson in his squad. He got a good start, and because most top teams tend to have the same players, his lead was only eroded interminably slowly.

I played a great game of FF this year, and have crushed my private leagues. But in competitive leagues such as the boards league? I am exactly where I was before christmas, about a hundred points behind the leaders.

They got a good start, I didn't, and that was that.

KevIRL

As usual with all these type of discussions there's no completely right answer and no completely wrong answer but a bit of both reasons and some others.

Playing the game from a dispassionate viewpoint, and going by the stats will always pay off in the long run, its a game based on stats afterall, with the BP's now based on stats also its removed any last remenant of subjective opinion point scoring. Now, to say that being abroad is advantage, would be imo far too soon to say and based on waaaaay too small a sample size (1 league, not even a full season). But for sure, not losing the head on club preferences, past FF season performances, etc and instead focussing on the stats will cause you to finish higher.

However its also true to say that momentum is important, and being at the top from early days means that you dont have to try to anticipate the start of every genuine bandwagon (ie where a player is going to hit a run of points), this means its easier to take one individual performance, wait a week and see if he can do it again before making a change. It has to be said though, that too many people think that they are far too behind too early, thinking the season is over in November and going making crazy changes based on hunches or feelings and with no statistical sense.

The other thing thats often overlooked is generally the top players realise quickly if they have made a mistake and ship the player out quickly as opposed to constantly giving him 'one more week' and losing on precious points as a result. Likewise they are prepared to ditch a previously strong performing player if the signs are there that he's on the wane.

Then of course there's transfer points hits. The top players dont take them often (if at all), 4 points is a heavy price to pay. Cutting back on points hits has certainly helped me a lot this year, and now I get delighted to see a rival take a hit, at this stage of the season its really handing a big advantage to me.

Finally of course, luck has its place to play. You try to minimise the variance of luck by going by the stats, and it will often even itself out over the season. But no doubt it definitely plays a part in the game, and it helps to have luck on your side

bucketybuck

carlcon wrote: »

Best example I can give is Demba Ba. Took many weeks to get him for most people, because they had to watch him play and see his goalscoring ability for themselves before he was considered the player he turned out to be.

I, on the other hand, heard about his transfer and immediately looked up his stats. His goalscoring record was phenomenal, so I had him bookmarked to be in my team from the start.

Then further stats and info told me he practised Ramadan, so wouldn't be fully healthy and available to play, which means I didn't waste time on him right away.

As soon as Ramadan ended and he showed himself to be a first team starter, I got him in. And benefited right away, while others took 2, 3, 4 weeks to cop onto him. That was one of the key factors in my climb to the top in the Boards league.

I take no credit for spotting his ability. Simply looked at the stats, and listened to praise from some pros. I could give similar stories about a few others too, but I guess Ba is the most stand-out.

Thankfully, some of us can choose to not react to hostile comments like that.

Just as you did in your crusade for this forum, you vastly overstate your case. Its almost like you are trying to create an image of Carlcon scanning lists of tables and figures for that magic pattern that gives you an "edge".

Fact is, what you try to call stats is usually just common sense. Everybody and their uncle knew Demba Ba got goals, everybody was just waiting to see if he stayed fit.

Look at the big hitters this year. Van Persie? Finished last year like a freight train, didn't need much research on him. Silva? Another obvious choice, stand out player on a City team going for the title. The Newcastle defenders Simpson and Taylor? Pah, cheap as chips both of them, a lot of people lucked out when Newcastle actually turned out to be pretty handy.

J Evans? A certain starter for Man Utd at 4 million? Even my mum could see the potential there once Vidic got injured. Valencia? His current form made him a necessity, not his past stats.

The people picking Sigurdson straight of the bat, or sticking with Dempsey all year, they can point to some awareness of stats if they wish, but the fact is that stats are only a small part of good FF form. Its far more important to judge current form correctly without the need to take unreasonable chances. Basically, get a good start, stay informed and dont **** it up.

carlcon

bucketybuck wrote: »

I played a great game of FF this year, and have crushed my private leagues. But in competitive leagues such as the boards league? I am exactly where I was before christmas, about a hundred points behind the leaders.

They got a good start, I didn't, and that was that.

To suggest it was just about the start is entirely misrepresenting the reality of how this season has gone. A spattering of high scores throughout the season, backed up by very few below average weeks is what counts.

The very essence of this game is picking good players before they're good. The simple reality is that when people see players like Dazzler do so well, the try to copy his team, and *that's* why they don't catch him. Dazzler has been superb, but not infallible. I've been above average, but definitely not uncatchable. The amount of PMs I got during the first half of the season from people asking me what team I was putting out, and comments on the forums asking about my transfers were surprisingly high, but it worked in my favour because at best, these people would equal me, but rarely score more than me.

To dismiss it as just doing the obvious or using "common sense" is completely unfair, and laughable. If it was obvious, we'd all do it.

And just looking at some GWs to make the point about consistency...

Dazzler
GW32 - 71
GW31 - 76
GW24 - 89
GW23 - 90
GW20 - 77
GW11 - 75
GW4 - 93
GW3 - 72
Weeks scoring less than 50 - Only 4 from 33
Weeks below 40 - 0

Me
GW24 - 83
GW20 - 76
GW17 - 74
GW15 - 80
GW14 - 83
GW4 - 94
GW3 - 87
Weeks scoring less than 50 - 8 from 33
Weeks below 40 - 0

That's certainly a lot more than just getting a good start. A good start helps... but so this a good middle, and a good end.

--

I've had a crap few months. Missed the Dempsey hat tricks, missed the Cisse wagon, kept Silva for too long, to name a few of the many mistakes I've made. If you were 100points off me at Xmas, and are still 100 points off me, that's because you also had a crap few months. Anyone who did well in recent times has caught me by quite a lot. So straight away, the assessment that you've been great this year with the exception of the start just isn't true.

bucketybuck wrote: »

Just as you did in your crusade for this forum, you vastly overstate your case. Its almost like you are trying to create an image of Carlcon scanning lists of tables and figures for that magic pattern that gives you an "edge".

This is almost as good as the post last week where someone said I'd been "humiliated" by sticking up for Ba.
Why would I need to create some kind of ridiculous "image"? Read my bloody posts instead of making up nonsense. From this very conversation:

carlcon wrote: »

My explanation for my own relative success was accepting that stats and professional opinion trumps my opinion tenfold. I relied heavily on BBC Radio5Live commentary during the first half of the season, where I was getting constant stats, facts, and up to date opinion from ex players and managers before, during, and after games. Didn't matter what games I saw, or who I thought played well... I went with them.

I've repeatedly referred to myself as someone who relies on professional opinions, and explained the very simple process of looking at a simple stats like goalscoring record. If you can take that as me claiming to have some kind of "magic pattern", then that's a reflection on you, not me.

--

And your selection of "big hitters", excluding RVP, doesn't reflect on the season at all. Rooney was a big hitter... Aguero was a big hitter... Nani was a big hitter... Larsson was a big hitter... Ba was a big hitter... Dempsey was a big hitter... to name a few... who were "big hitters" at different times during the season. And *that's* how people do well... having them at the right time. Not just sticking the armband on RVP and filling the team with Silva's and Evans'.

Again, if it was common sense, there wouldn't be people 50/100/200/300 points behind.

shadowcomplex

How much is yer team worth lads, my team is worth 110.0m and I also have 5m in the bank, I dont even bother keeping an eye on the price rises on Fiso anymore because ive more than enough cash, i could sell cisse and have a teves, rooney and vpersie strikeforce along with a great midfield, but because cisse has a double coming up i think i hold on to him

KevIRL

Team value 108.9. In the bank 0.2

alchemist33

There's a guy in my league who captained Tevez last week. Fair f**cks, I thought.
I checked yesterday to see what massive score he had. He'd sold Tevez, captained Dempsey, and vice captained Adebayor -- for THIS week.

Needless to say, he's 360 points behind me.

Maggie McGaggie

I don't see many people finishing inside the top 5 or 10 thousand mark year in, year out. If you look at most people they are quite inconsistent.I seem to remember a guy who finished 2nd or 3rd overall a few seasons back and was being paid to give advice throughout the next season on Matt Cooper's Last Word show had an awful stinker. Most people have a good season and then follow it up with a poor one. Luck is a huge factor in this game but i agree that you have to be proactive.

Morricone

Team value is 113.4. Including the 8.5 I have in the bank.

G1032

Maggie McGaggie wrote: »

I don't see many people finishing inside the top 5 or 10 thousand mark year in, year out. If you look at most people they are quite inconsistent.I seem to remember a guy who finished 2nd or 3rd overall a few seasons back and was being paid to give advice throughout the next season on Matt Cooper's Last Word show had an awful stinker. Most people have a good season and then follow it up with a poor one. Luck is a huge factor in this game but i agree that you have to be proactive.

Just checked out my previous years there.

Season Points Overall Rank
2007/08 1914 324984
2008/09 1875 132297
2009/10 2213 64914
2010/11 2058 30856
2011/12 1921 4110

Well all I can say is that I'm improving each year. This year is my best so far. Can't see me doing as well next year.
Amazing how the seasons pan out....... 2213 points is only enough for 64914 place in 2010 but 2058 points comes 30856 last year..........