US 2012 Presidential Election Polls

Duck Soup

briankeating wrote: »

Those pinkos at Fox News are at it again. They are blatantly humping Obamas leg again:

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2012/09/12/fox-news-poll-obama-has-lead-over-romney-in-post-convention-poll/

I would like to see Limbaugh spin that one.

The really interesting thing about that poll is that independents are starting to break in favour of Obama. If that trend continues - and I'm still waiting to see what, if anything, the effect Romney's Libyan embassy comments have made - then we'll start to see that clear water between candidates.

The Republicans have being trying to hang the 'Carter' label around Obama's neck (leader at a time of pessimism and loser writ large) and the 'Reagan' label around Romney's (come from behind in the polls to win in a landslide).

If anything, it's look increasingly more like a replay of the last election. Close enough, with a modest Obama lead, until an ill-judged move - choosing Palin and suspending his campaign to deal with the economic crisis for McCain; playing politics with the Libyan embassy deaths for Romney - starts to make people's minds up.

All Romney had to do was appear presidential. And like McCain with his rash decisions, Romney's interventions this week puts that at risk. Liable to play well to the base - possibly he's banking on this being a Get Out The Base election - but not likely to play well with independents. Keep on eye on independent voters in polls next week.

Amerika

In my opinion:

Unfortunately, I have less and less "faith" and "respect" for many of these professional polling companies. It appears more and more often they are using sample sizes to distort the results in an attempt to influence opinion rather than simply measuring it. Basically they seem to be manipulating the sample sizes to get the desired outcome, and usually the pollsters simply call a lot more Democrats than Republicans to make the Democrats look good. And recently it also appears many are using fewer Independents in their sampling sizes, which makes no sense because in recent years Independents have grown substantially in numbers compared to the two major parties. And Independents seem to be going for Romney by double digits, so if you sample fewer Independents you therefore skew the poll towards Democrats.

Just the other day it was reported that the Reuters/IPSOS poll not only over-sampled Democrats and under sampled Independents, they lied about the numbers. They led readers to believe they sampled 47% Democrats and 38% Republicans. But simple math from their own figures of Interview dates: Sept 7-10, 2012; of 572 Democrats; 439 Republicans; 78 Independents, the math comes out to be 53% Democrats, 40% Republicans, and 7% Independents. And because of this prevarication Real Clear Politics removed this poll from their list of averaged polls, but replaced it with a Democratic Poll by Democracy Corps… CAN YOU BELIEVE IT?

Simply put, we should look at the RCP poll average with severe caution and much skepticism!

Black Swan

Latest Fox News election poll results (9 to 11 September 2012):
Obama = 48
Romney = 43
Spread = +5 Obama

This is an interesting poll to cite in that several posters on the US Politics forum have suggested that Fox News is very biased in favour of the GOP.

matthew8

Black Swan wrote: »

Latest Fox News election poll results (9 to 11 September 2012):
Obama = 48
Romney = 43
Spread = +5 Obama

This is an interesting poll to cite in that several posters on the US Politics forum have suggested that Fox News is very biased in favour of the GOP.

Fox news the station is, but Fox news polling has always had very favourable numbers for Obama this cycle.

Denerick

Black Swan wrote: »

This is an interesting poll to cite in that several posters on the US Politics forum have suggested that Fox News is very biased in favour of the GOP.

I'll think you'll find that the perception of Fox News stretches way beyond the boards.ie US politics forum...

Duck Soup

Latest Marist NBC/WSJ poll [conducted from Sept. 9-11] has Obama with decent leads in the 3 key battleground states: Ohio, Florida and Virginia.

Florida
Obama 49
Romney 44

Virginia
Obama 49
Romney 44

Ohio
Obama 50
Romney 43

http://firstread.nbcnews.com/_news/2012/09/13/13848313-polls-obama-holds-the-edge-in-florida-ohio-and-virginia?lite

BOHtox

Black Swan wrote: »

Latest Fox News election poll results (9 to 11 September 2012):
Obama = 48
Romney = 43
Spread = +5 Obama

This is an interesting poll to cite in that several posters on the US Politics forum have suggested that Fox News is very biased in favour of the GOP.

I think Fox definitely has a conservative agenda. This definitely extends to a Republican agenda and watching it they are definitely anti-Democrat.

Saying that though they do have objective journalism. A poll is a poll is a poll. Also a lot of other journalists and broadcasters and anchors have pro-democrat or pro-republican agendas. I think it's harsh to keep it to just Fox. John Stewart openly admits being pro Democrat for instance. That does not mean that if he carries out a poll it should be ignored.

joseph brand

Internationally, Obama leads very very comfortably. Ireland gets a mention. Look which countries Israel are lumped in with.
http://m.upi.com/story/UPI-63991347433800/

Obama 81%
Romney 19%

Interesting. Especially since some posters on here wondered if us Irish were in love with Obama and his communist manifesto. We love Kenyan Muslims. So does most of Europe.

Brian?

An interesting comparison would be a graph of results v polls for the last few elections. That might show whether there is something fishy going on.

IMO there is no Dem bias in the polls. Romney is just brutal.

kenco

Duck Soup wrote: »

Latest Marist NBC/WSJ poll [conducted from Sept. 9-11] has Obama with decent leads in the 3 key battleground states: Ohio, Florida and Virginia.

Florida
Obama 49
Romney 44

Virginia
Obama 49
Romney 44

Ohio
Obama 50
Romney 43

http://firstread.nbcnews.com/_news/2012/09/13/13848313-polls-obama-holds-the-edge-in-florida-ohio-and-virginia?lite

Interesting as while its a lead it is still tight and not beyond Romney turning it around in those states.

Interesting CNN article on a possible Electoral College tie (269/269). Unlikely I think but an interesting what if nonetheless:
http://edition.cnn.com/2012/07/26/politics/electoral-college-tie/index.html

Memnoch

You can be pro-democrat or pro-republican. But the difference between Fox News and John Stewart is that one is a fountain of lies and disinformation. It has been shown repeatedly that those who watch it end up less informed than those who rely on other sources or news or even don't watch any news at all. The other may have an editorial voice, but at least it's honest and gives the other side honest opportunity for rebuttal, should they be bold enough to take it.

Atlantis50

Rasmussen have the only poll conducted fully after the emergence of the Middle East crisis on Wednesday and it shows Romney ahead of Obama by 2% (O 46, R 48). http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/obama_administration/daily_presidential_tracking_poll

A study by Dr. Costas Panagopoulos of Fordham University showed that Rasmussen were the most accurate pollsters for the 2008 Presidential election. http://www.fordham.edu/images/academics/graduate_schools/gsas/elections_and_campaign_/poll%20accuracy%20in%20the%202008%20presidential%20election.pdf

Black Swan

Starting with the last Fox News poll "tie" between Obama and Romney where they were said to be even, and moving forward from that tie, the results are interesting:

• June 3-5: Obama = 43, Romney = 43; Tie
• June 24-26: Obama = 45, Romney = 40; Obama leads +5
• July 15-17: Obama = 45, Romney = 41; Obama leads +4
• Aug 5-7: Obama = 49, Romney = 40; Obama leads +9
• Aug 19-21: Obama = 44, Romney = 45; Romney leads +1
• Sept 9-11: Obama = 48, Romney = 43; Obama leads +5

***

• Obama led in 4 of 6 polls, with a range from +4 to +9.
• Romney led in 1 of 6 polls, with +1

If these were not all identified as Fox News polls, how many would claim that the polling organisation was biased in favour of Obama and the Democrats?

jank

Denerick wrote: »

Words do kill people, if you don't understand that you must be completely unacquainted with history. You don't think 'Mein Kampf' or the 'The protocols of the learned elders of Zion' led to many deaths? I could name many more, 'The Koran', 'The Bible', 'The Talmud', 'The Communist Manifesto', 'Thus Spoke Zarathustra'. The list goes on and on.

OK, so you are in affect comparing the tea party to Nazi Germany, Soviet Russia, and Mao's China? And you are then accusing the tea party of hyperbole.

Well done on the most ironic post of the year. Need to stop drinking the cool-aid.

Denerick

jank wrote: »

OK, so you are in affect comparing the tea party to Nazi Germany, Soviet Russia, and Mao's China? And you are then accusing the tea party of hyperbole.

Well done on the most ironic post of the year. Need to stop drinking the cool-aid.

I was making a point, I understand it may have been a little sophisticated for some but nonetheless I was making a point that rhetoric and hysterical language leads to dead bodies. Deny this and you deny history. Are you denying history?

Duck Soup

New Marist NBC/WSJ poll (conducted Sept 12th - 16th) out within the last hour:

Obama 50%

Romney 44%

Be like Nutella

good

anyone see that Writer Michael Lewis on GPS on Sunday? He's been tagging along with Obama for a long piece he wrote in Vanity Fair.... came across really well, has a very high opinion of Obama in many respects as a person... didn't get into any politics in the interview just made some points about Obama as a guy. In particular he was recounting the half dozen Basketball games he played with Obama (who plays a regular game with some ex NBA guys, some advisers, staff etc).. was a great insight I thought, whether or not you would expect Lewis to naturally be an Obama lick-ass or not. Here's the piece.

http://www.vanityfair.com/politics/2012/10/michael-lewis-profile-barack-obama

Duck Soup

New Pew Research poll out today (conducted 12th - 16th September):

Obama 51%

Romney 43%

http://www.upi.com/Top_News/US/2012/09/19/Pew-poll-Obama-up-by-8-over-Romney/UPI-80951348098217/

Be like Nutella

and that doesn't include dinner time disaster!

LuckyLloyd

How different is Rasmussen's method in comparison to other major pollsters? His numbers are consistently out on their own it seems.

Amerika

LuckyLloyd wrote: »

How different is Rasmussen's method in comparison to other major pollsters? His numbers are consistently out on their own it seems.

I believe Rasmussen uses samples of likely voters that are similar in makeup to the national average of exit voters from the 2010 mid-term election, because this election appears to be similar to 2010 as Republicans are again enthusiastic and Democrats are once again less then enthused this election cycle.

LuckyLloyd

Amerika wrote: »

I believe Rasmussen uses samples of likely voters that are similar in makeup to the national average of exit voters from the 2010 mid-term election, because this election appears to be similar to 2010 as Republicans are again enthusiastic and Democrats are once again less then enthused this election cycle.

Okay, that's one side's take!

Thanks, anyone else?

jank

Denerick wrote: »

I was making a point, I understand it may have been a little sophisticated for some but nonetheless I was making a point that rhetoric and hysterical language leads to dead bodies. Deny this and you deny history. Are you denying history?

No but extreme language does not always lead to deaths, if it did we would all be killing each other. You are stating that its inevitable am I stating that the odds of the tea party arming themselves up to kill people like the Taliban is very very very remote. You made a direct comparison between the Taliban and the tea party, which is idiotic.

joseph brand

jank wrote: »

No but extreme language does not always lead to deaths, if it did we would all be killing each other. You are stating that its inevitable am I stating that the odds of the tea party arming themselves up to kill people like the Taliban is very very very remote. You made a direct comparison between the Taliban and the tea party, which is idiotic.

Oh no it isn't.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yGAvwSp86hY

MadYaker

Poll - Most Americans think Obama would beat Romney in a fist fight

Be like Nutella

joseph brand wrote: »

Oh no it isn't.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yGAvwSp86hY

brilliant scene, great speech.. imagine how different it could be if Republicans moved more in the direction of this type of opinion and less in the direction of bleeding loonbags like Palin and Bachman.

Denerick

jank wrote: »

No but extreme language does not always lead to deaths, if it did we would all be killing each other. You are stating that its inevitable am I stating that the odds of the tea party arming themselves up to kill people like the Taliban is very very very remote. You made a direct comparison between the Taliban and the tea party, which is idiotic.

No offence, but you seem to struggle with subtle arguments. I was basically channeling Aaron Sorkin a la 'The Newsroom'. To be honest I can't be bothered continuing this 'conversation' as it is quite exasperating. Enjoy the last word.

Memnoch

The tea party are perfectly described as the American Taliban in many of their beliefs. Their ideologies are similar and just as extreme.

The only difference is that America isn't the kind of place where you can really get away with using violence to further your goals in the way you can in say Afghanasthan.

Amerika

Memnoch wrote: »

The tea party are perfectly described as the American Taliban in many of their beliefs. Their ideologies are similar and just as extreme.

The only difference is that America isn't the kind of place where you can really get away with using violence to further your goals in the way you can in say Afghanasthan.

I'm a member of the Tea Party. Please enlighten me as to how our ideologies are similar and just as extreme at the Taliban.

I'll go get some popcorn in the meantime.

Fiscal Responsibility!... (Man that must have hurt.)

MadYaker

Amerika wrote: »

I'm a member of the Tea Party. Please enlighten me as to how our ideologies are similar and just as extreme at the Taliban.

I'll go get some popcorn in the meantime.

Fiscal Responsibility!... (Man that must have hurt.)

They both encompass extreme right wing nut jobs and other idiots who seek to impose their views on others. They both use religion to justify their bullsh!t. I could go on but since you know how to use the internet and seem well educated I don't believe that you are a member of the tea party, certainly not a grass roots member. And you don't hate romney enough or think that obama is a socialist muslim who was born in kenya.