US 2012 Presidential Election Polls

matthew8

Something hilarious is happening in Nevada. Ron Paul came in third in the caucus with around 18% of the vote, but because of the structure of the caucus, his supporters are overwhelming the Nevada convention and he could get a lot of delegates.

BOHtox

Any idea when we'll start hearing some results from today?

There's only two on the ballot in Kansas. Could Paul upset Santorum?

matthew8

BOHtox wrote: »

Any idea when we'll start hearing some results from today?

There's only two on the ballot in Kansas. Could Paul upset Santorum?

Kansas is not Ron Paul territory, barring some superb showing in the cities he's coming 4th. Romney and Gingrich are both under 20 right now, which means no delegates for them. And caucuses don't really have ballots, in the sense that Virginia has a ballot.

And we're already getting results:
http://us.cnn.com/election/2012/primaries/state/ks
http://www.google.com/elections/ed/us/results , click on Kansas

EDIT: I got the delegates wrong, if only Santorum is over 20 then 25 delegates are split up proportionally.

Black Swan

RCP consolidated polling average for Republican nomination (ending 8 March and ending 12 March):

• Romney: now = 34.8; last = 37.3; difference = -2.5
• Santorum: now = 29.3; last = 27.7; difference = +1.6

• Gingrich: now = 14.5; last = 14.3; difference = +0.2
• Paul: now = 11.0; last = 11.3; difference = -0.3

Without knowing the computed confidence interval for the above polling, it would appear that Santorum is closing with Romney, while Gingrich and Paul stay pretty much the same.

Black Swan

RCP consolidated poll averages ending 22 March 2012 (16:00 PST), and delegates awarded for Republican presidential primary:

Romney = 36.6; delegates = 560
Santorum = 28.6; delegates = 246
Gingrich = 15.6; delegates = 141
Paul = 10.7; delegates = 66

It would appear that Santorum has been slipping back in the polls a bit, now 8 points behind Romney. In terms of delegates, Romney has about 49% of those needed to win the nomination (i.e., half of 2286 total = 1143 +1; 560/1144 = .4895 x 100 = 49% rounded).

Is it time for Santorum to lobby Romney for the VP running mate position?

Denerick

I don't think it would be wise for Romney to choose someone like Santorum as VP. It would be Sarah Palin all over again - delight the 25% of the electorate who are basically certifiably insane, insult the 75% who are not.

Black Swan

RCP Averages of 7 Polls: Obama vs. Romney Favorability 11 April to 15 May 2012**

Candidate > Favorable/Unfavorable/Spread
Obama > 51.6/43.4/+8.2
Romney > 39.9/41.3/-1.4

Favorable vs. Unfavorable polling shows a larger spread between Obama and Romney, than in the RCP presidential election polls averages, so what this means in terms of the forthcoming November 2012 elections is problematic.

**At the date and time of this post (constantly changing with new polls being averaged in)

Matt Holck

that's 8.5 % tired of electing Harvard

Black Swan

The above favourability polls average with a +8.2 spread lead by Obama stands in contrast to a very narrow +1.7 Obama lead in the RCP General Election 9 poll average:

• Obama 45.5
• Romney 43.8

This significant spread difference between the earlier Favorable/Unfavorable and this General Election 9-polls average is problematic in terms of what this actually means when attempting to predict the November election.

matthew8

Would anyone like me to post maps that I make myself of the state by state situation?

Amerika

matthew8 wrote: »

Would anyone like me to post maps that I make myself of the state by state situation?

Sure... do they change as poll situations change?

Black Swan

Admittedly, it is still a bit early in the presidential election year for polls to be accurate, although it will be interesting to look back from October 2012 polls to the ones today to see what differences may exist.

matthew8

Here's my first map. Dark red is republican solid, light red lean, dark blue democrat solid, light blue democrat lean (even though I think the colours should be the other way around). I took the most recent poll, if there was more than one and no one ahead in each poll I took the person who one 2 of the last 3, if there was still a tie I averaged the numbers.

Amerika

Hard to tell with some of the blue eastern state numbers, but does it currently come out to 284 Obama? (270 needed to become POTUS). Personally I still think VA, PA and OH might be play, and with the dems doing little but going after Romney's Bain Capital history, while ignoring the economy and jobs, those states will start to see red (pun intended).

matthew8

It's currently 303-235 to Obama. Romney will need Ohio to bring it to 285-253, I think Virginia would be next to flip, bringing it to 272-266 to Obama, and then Romney needs one more state.

Matt Holck

I don't thonk Romney will touh Ohio

not with lame Governor walker next door

telling unions they can't collectively bargain

matthew8

Matt Holck wrote: »

I don't thonk Romney will touh Ohio

not with lame Governor walker next door

telling unions they can't collectively bargain

Obama's led every poll this year in Ohio, but Quinnipiac (the Ohio experts) are showing a 1 point race. I don't think Walker is the reason either, infact he's looking like he's cruising to victory in the recall election, though governor Kasich of Ohio is very unpopular. You'll see when likely voter samples come out that they favour republicans far more than democrats, especially in places like Ohio where there are big get out the vote drives. The election could be decided by whether the pro or anti-union vote drive works better.

matthew8

For anyone who wants to follow the state by state polls, I highly recommend http://www.electionprojection.com/2012elections/president12.php

matthew8

http://electoral-vote.com/ is back up and has a new look. It has all the polls as well as commentary (democratic leaning commentary but the numbers are fine).

Denerick

Cheers Matthew 8. I normally rely on realclearpolitics.com for coverage but the articles they cite are either bat**** insane right wing or annoyingly earnest left wing.

matthew8

Denerick wrote: »

Cheers Matthew 8. I normally rely on realclearpolitics.com for coverage but the articles they cite are either bat**** insane right wing or annoyingly earnest left wing.

I used to trust realclearpolitics, but it slowly became clear it had a big republican bias. And it has been there for a long time. I strongly recommend you read their prediction of the 2000 presidential election from a day before the election. It's hilarious:

http://web.archive.org/web/20001216085300/http://www.realclearpolitics.com/Polls/polls-Electoral_11_06_EC.html

Denerick

Thats crazy. I always saw it as an aggregate site with some useful polls which average out all of the polling nationwide. I generally never bothered reading the editorials, though I knew they were republican leaning.

To be honest, the prediction in 2010 smacked as much of incompetence as it did of partisanship. I'd be surprised if the owners of realclearpolitics hadn't learnt by experience over the last twelve odd years.

Black Swan

matthew8 wrote: »

I used to trust realclearpolitics, but it slowly became clear it had a big republican bias.

Denerick wrote: »

Thats crazy. I always saw it as an aggregate site with some useful polls which average out all of the polling nationwide. I generally never bothered reading the editorials, though I knew they were republican leaning.

Good observations about RCP. I never read their opinion pieces because of this obvious bias.

The RCP listing and timeliness of several polls are useful, although the aggregate poll averaging is problematic in terms of its statistical assumptions and calculations; i.e., a simple averaging fails to address such issues as the differences in population parameters, sampling, size, confidence levels, confidence intervals, etc.

Early on in the election year primaries and GE the RCP aggregate averaging is interesting to watch, especially when there is a spike in the media. But as we draw closer to November 2012, the utility of the RCP aggregate average should be viewed with caution.

matthew8

New map:

Matt Holck

Green Party Presidential candidate is also from Harvard

Black Swan

Latest RCP Average ending 27 June 2012 for Presidential Election:
Obama = 47.3
Romney = 43.7

It's still early, and ultimately Obama's bid for re-election will be based upon the old saying: "It's the economy stupid!" If the markets and employment stagger before the election, so will he. But if they continue to gradually improve between now and November, then he will be re-elected no matter what Romney and the GOP does.

My prediction at this point is that Obama will win by a small margin, the GOP keeps the House majority, and wins the Senate by one or two seats; i.e., it will be like Clinton's second term.

matthew8

Black Swan wrote: »

Latest RCP Average ending 27 June 2012 for Presidential Election:
Obama = 47.3
Romney = 43.7

It's still early, and ultimately Obama's bid for re-election will be based upon the old saying: "It's the economy stupid!" If the markets and employment stagger before the election, so will he. But if they continue to gradually improve between now and November, then he will be re-elected no matter what Romney and the GOP does.

My prediction at this point is that Obama will win by a small margin, the GOP keeps the House majority, and wins the Senate by one or two seats; i.e., it will be like Clinton's second term.

I must say I think you're spot on.

southsiderosie

Does that mean we are in for another impeachment circus?

Sadly, I wouldn't be surprised.

Amerika

southsiderosie wrote: »

Does that mean we are in for another impeachment circus?

Sadly, I wouldn't be surprised.

Nah. He’ll probably just continue to lie to the American people which seemingly warrants no consequences, and avoid lying to Congress through use of Executive Privilege.

southsiderosie

Amerika wrote: »

Nah. He’ll probably just continue to lie to the American people which seemingly warrants no consequences, and avoid lying to Congress through use of Executive Privilege.

If lying to the electorate was grounds for impeachment, there would be nobody left in Washington. Which might not be a bad thing.