US 2012 Presidential Election Polls

Duck Soup

New Zogby poll, out today, conducted September 21 - 22:

Obama 49

Romney 41

http://www.newsmax.com/Newsfront/zogby-obama-leads-likely/2012/09/23/id/457291

Amerika

The latest Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Sunday, 23 September, shows that of voters nationwide:

President Obama 46%
Mitt Romney 46%

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/obama_administration/daily_presidential_tracking_poll
　
In the latest POLITICO-George Washington University Battleground Poll with middle-class families, which comprise about 54 percent of the total American electorate shows a 14-point advantage (55 percent to 41 percent) favor Mitt Romney.

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0912/81584.html#ixzz27OVxvOJy

And in Pennsylvania, which was considered solid Obama recently, a recent poll suddenly has us becoming a battleground state with Obama 47%, Romney 45%.

http://triblive.com/home/2641005-74/obama-percent-romney-poll-voters-pennsylvania-leads-lee-margin-points

Be like Nutella

was thinking: wonder what effect knowing where polls stand has on voters? I'd vote Obama so it wouldn't effect me ... but I wonder what the thinking is.... would it be the unsure who would be most vulnerable to going with the winning side out of mob mentality or insecurity issues?

Obama is clearly winning most polls and is out in front by all accounts unless you're insane at this point but the 'battling of polls' that seems to be happening on this forum is for what purpose?

Only the very sure are going to be swayed by knowing where the public opinion seems to be.

I personally don't agree that sampling can be truly trusted and can go very wrong and in the case of elections sampling is never really vindicated or not. I carried out a project once for a company that involved attempting to use sampling of a very large customer group to find out how exposed a company potentially was to law suits and although the sampling was carried out by the book the short cut did not work out well at all in the end by a factor of 3 or 4 and the whole thing ended in tears. Asking 20 thousand people on a street who they'd vote for compared to 130 million votes in November doesn't do it for me and means nothing.... and the aggregate wave of changing poll results only serves to give you a real representation of changing opinion dynamics IF every poll is carried out the same way and in the same frequency as every other period/week over the whole two horse cycle... in other words we believe what we want to believe and we use polls to support what we think. It is not a science and it can't be proven, it's just a way to sell papers and ads and so forth to me.

Amerika

Be like Nutella wrote: »

was thinking: wonder what effect knowing where polls stand has on voters?

These might help

http://pjmedia.com/tatler/2012/09/23/skewed-and-unskewed-polls/
http://www.unskewedpolls.com/

Paleface

I never trust polls. They are by their nature badly flawed.

I prefer to look at the odds bookmakers are giving as a clearer indicator in the run up to any election or referendum. These guys are in the business of making money from their predictions and although anything can happen they rarely get it wrong.

Paddy Power

Obama 1/5
Romney 10/3

Ladbrokes

Obama 1.22
Romney 4.33

William Hill

Obama 1/5
Romney 10/3


Is not hard to tell who the clear favourite is to win at this point.

Amerika

Paleface wrote: »

I never trust polls. They are by their nature badly flawed.

I prefer to look at the odds bookmakers are giving as a clearer indicator in the run up to any election or referendum. These guys are in the business of making money from their predictions and although anything can happen they rarely get it wrong.

Paddy Power

Obama 1/5
Romney 10/3

Ladbrokes

Obama 1.22
Romney 4.33

William Hill

Obama 1/5
Romney 10/3


Is not hard to tell who the clear favourite is to win at this point.

Thanks. How does it work? Are your bets locked in at the odds listed when you place your bets, or can they change as the election gets closer? Also I wonder if US citizens (according to US laws) are legally allowed to place bets with Paddy Power and the like? And if you are allowed to bet, what would be the US government's tax cut… and if they’d tax you on the entire payout, or only the amount above your bet?

I’d really like to put a couple hundred down on Romney. Maybe I'll just have a relative over there place some bets for me... If they could be trusted that is (as they all hate my politics also).

InTheTrees

The bookie's sites are great, as Paleface says, the bookmakers dont give a sh*t about politics or left or right, their only concern is getting the odds right so they can make a profit. I was checking them before the primaries and they were consistently correct.

In the same way, I get a lot of my TV news from CNBC and Bloomberg. The financial channels, sure, they do tend to have a slight right wing stance but generally financial news needs to be Truthful. (As far as thats possible!!)

InTheTrees

Amerika wrote: »

Are your bets locked in at the odds listed when you place your bets, or can they change as the election gets closer?

I think they're locked in when you place your bet but they can also change if you were to place a bet later.

So if you get in early you can get different odds.

Amerika

InTheTrees wrote: »

I think they're locked in when you place your bet but they can also change if you were to place a bet later.

So if you get in early you can get different odds.

Thanks, but that still leaves the other two big questions... is it legal to place bets from the US, and what is the gov'ts tax cut?

InTheTrees

Amerika wrote: »

Thanks, but that still leaves the other two big questions... is it legal to place bets from the US, and what is the gov'ts tax cut?

I think its probably illegal for anyone in the US to place a bet on a non-sports event outside the US.

Is that right?

But as for gambling income within the US, I dont know how that's taxed. Unfortunately I've ever won enough to find out!

MadYaker

Amerika wrote: »

Thanks, but that still leaves the other two big questions... is it legal to place bets from the US, and what is the gov'ts tax cut?

Id say start a thread in the legal forum and someone should be able to answer that.

Also why would you bet against obama when the bookies and almost every poll think he is going to win? What information do you have access to that they don't???

Amerika

MadYaker wrote: »

Id say start a thread in the legal forum and someone should be able to answer that.

Thanks, I might do that.

Also why would you bet against obama when the bookies and almost every poll think he is going to win? What information do you have access to that they don't???

That information doesn't come cheap!

Watch the odds against Romney start to fall in the next few weeks, as more on the administration's international miscues come out, as the debates start, as polls in states like OH, FL, PA and VA start to nudge towards Romney. And don’t wait too long before betting.

MadYaker

Amerika wrote: »

Thanks, I might do that.


That information doesn't come cheap!

Watch the odds against Romney start to fall in the next few weeks, as more on the administration's international miscues come out, as the debates start, as polls in states like OH, FL, PA and VA start to nudge towards Romney. And don’t wait too long before betting.

So basically you're answer is none. And you are claiming you know better than them. Maybe you are right, with the state of the economy and no signs of dramatic improvement on the horizon its a testament to Romneys lack of appeal that Obama is ahead at all. A good show in the debates or a scandal in the Obama camp are his last hope.

Amerika

MadYaker wrote: »

So basically you're answer is none. And you are claiming you know better than them. Maybe you are right, with the state of the economy and no signs of dramatic improvement on the horizon its a testament to Romneys lack of appeal that Obama is ahead at all. A good show in the debates or a scandal in the Obama camp are his last hope.

Actually, nothing singular… Just bits and pieces, meanings behind the meanings, trends, etc.

Political winds are shifting. People don't like what is going on and with who's in control... regardless of what you're hearing. What would you say if I told you that in Illinois (Barack Obama’s home state) this year, the top three recipients of political contributions from the Illinois Education Association were Republicans, including a candidate for the State House who has Tea Party support and advocates lower taxes and smaller government? Teachers and Educators might be a lot of things, but they’re not stupid.

Paleface

Amerika wrote: »

Thanks. How does it work? Are your bets locked in at the odds listed when you place your bets, or can they change as the election gets closer? Also I wonder if US citizens (according to US laws) are legally allowed to place bets with Paddy Power and the like? And if you are allowed to bet, what would be the US government's tax cut… and if they’d tax you on the entire payout, or only the amount above your bet?

I’d really like to put a couple hundred down on Romney. Maybe I'll just have a relative over there place some bets for me... If they could be trusted that is (as they all hate my politics also).

For political bets the odds are locked in at the time you place the bet.

To the best of my knowledge there is currently no taxation on online gambling in Ireland but its coming due to our economic woes! If its not already there it won't be before this election as it would only be announced for next years budget. Also it would be a very small percentage as the bookmakers would argue that their profits will go down due to people gambling less and in turn the amount of corporate tax they ultimately pay to the government.

Taxation on gambling is usually a percentage of how much you wager and not of your potential winnings. That way you pay the tax upfront regardless of whether you win or lose.

I don't know how that would work for someone from overseas however.

Best of luck if your backing the long shot!!

Black Swan

Amerika wrote: »

The latest Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Sunday, 23 September, shows that of voters nationwide:

President Obama 46%
Mitt Romney 46%

Latest update of Rasmussen Tracking 23 September close:
Obama = 47
Romney = 46

Most recent 9 reported polls by RCP show Obama leading in all 9 from +1 to +8, including Rasmussen +1. The polling trend continues to favour an Obama win by a small margin.

Once again, my 6 November 2012 prediction is that Obama wins by small margin, Republicans retain comfortable majority in US House, and Republicans win slight majority by one or two seats in US Senate; i.e., return to the Clinton 2nd term years, although with some differences.

Denerick

I can't claim to be an expert on the polls, but I reckon that Democrats can keep their senate majority and reduce the Republican house majority substantially. Obama can rely on his vote coming out this time in a way they simply didn't do during the 2010 midterms. (Which is why the Republicans won so many house seats after all)

BOHtox

Surely when polls are this close, Obama leading by 1,2,3 points, the only polls that matter are those in the swing states. What does a 1% gain do for Romney nationally? nothing really. But a 1% gain in New Hampshire, Florida and Wisconsin could see him win. Similarly with Obama, what's 1% nationally? where 1% in Ohio could see him on the road to victory. This, in my opinion, is a very close race between two candidates who wouldn't stand a chance against half decent opposition

jank

Denerick wrote: »

I can't claim to be an expert on the polls, but I reckon that Democrats can keep their senate majority and reduce the Republican house majority substantially. Obama can rely on his vote coming out this time in a way they simply didn't do during the 2010 midterms. (Which is why the Republicans won so many house seats after all)

I think it will be the opposite.
Obama will win the election but the GOP may take BOTH houses.

Duck Soup

Reuters/Ipsos tracking poll out yesterday - conducted 20th to 24th September - has:

Obama 49
Romney 43

http://www.ibtimes.com/can-romney-win-without-elderly-white-working-class-voters-795181

As ever, add pinch of salt according to taste with any poll, but the really interesting underlying trend from that poll is that Romney's lead amongst older voters in it dropped from 20% to 4%. Despite a strong effort just after the Ryan pick to neutralize the Democrats' trust advantage on Medicare, it seems that older voters are getting increasingly nervous about the prospects of what the Republicans have in mind for Medicare and Medicaid. Obviously, that could be particularly significant in Florida.

TwoShedsJackson

Amerika wrote: »

Thanks, I might do that.


That information doesn't come cheap!

Watch the odds against Romney start to fall in the next few weeks, as more on the administration's international miscues come out, as the debates start, as polls in states like OH, FL, PA and VA start to nudge towards Romney. And don’t wait too long before betting.

Do you really, really think that Romney is going to outperform Obama in the debates?? Please try and think objectively about it for two seconds and consider Romney's personal style and orating skills versus those of Obama, no matter how much you like or dislike each individual.

InTheTrees

TwoShedsJackson wrote: »

Do you really, really think that Romney is going to outperform Obama in the debates??

You have to get into the soviet style mindset.

So yes, for him, Romney WILL win the debate because whatever the outcome he will be told that Romney has won the debate and that will be enough.

Pleading for someone to use common sense is useless.

:cool:

Amerika

TwoShedsJackson wrote: »

Do you really, really think that Romney is going to outperform Obama in the debates?? Please try and think objectively about it for two seconds and consider Romney's personal style and orating skills versus those of Obama, no matter how much you like or dislike each individual.

I'm just going off the expectations from Obama's own guy Robert Gibbs.

"Mitt Romney I think has an advantage because he's been through 20 of these debates in the primaries over the last year"

http://www.politico.com/blogs/politico-live/2012/09/gibbs-romney-starts-with-an-advantage-in-debates-136408.html?hp=l5

It’s interesting. Romney is better qualified, has more experience, and can deal with a diversity of people far better. He has a better outlook for America and will take steps necessary to stop the irresponsibilities ofthat plague the current administration (Do you know our federal tax revenues is about $2.25 Trillion, and in each of Obama’s four years he has spent about $1.5 Trillion more than that). What Romney lacks is a flair for “pollitiking” and often stumbles in the process. Therefore we have the kinda of candidate I hear people wish we would get, and he is raked over the coals because he isn’t a good politician [/Facepalm]. I guess when it comes to being a Republican, you’re wrong no matter what.

Memnoch

Amerika wrote: »

I'm just going off the expectations from Obama's own guy Robert Gibbs.



http://www.politico.com/blogs/politico-live/2012/09/gibbs-romney-starts-with-an-advantage-in-debates-136408.html?hp=l5

It’s interesting. Romney is better qualified, has more experience, and can deal with a diversity of people far better. He has a better outlook for America and will take steps necessary to stop the irresponsibilities ofthat plague the current administration (Do you know our federal tax revenues is about $2.25 Trillion, and in each of Obama’s four years he has spent about $1.5 Trillion more than that). What Romney lacks is a flair for “pollitiking” and often stumbles in the process. Therefore we have the kinda of candidate I hear people wish we would get, and he is raked over the coals because he isn’t a good politician [/Facepalm]. I guess when it comes to being a Republican, you’re wrong no matter what.

Gibbs is deliberately downplaying expectations. Because if Obama is expected to win and he doesn't produce a stellar performance the narrative will be that he didn't do as well as he should have done and therefore he 'lost.'

The idea is to increase the pressure on Romney. He's not going to win because he does not have a substantive argument to make largely because even he doesn't seem to be able to consistent on just what - if anything - he stands for.

Obama has the facts on his side and the eloquence to match it, though he doesn't have Clinton's punchy style.

Remember, Romney needs the debates because he is behind in the polls. If he is expected to win and doesn't that only allows him to be hit harder in the aftermath.

Amerika

Memnoch wrote: »

Gibbs is deliberately downplaying expectations. Because if Obama is expected to win and he doesn't produce a stellar performance the narrative will be that he didn't do as well as he should have done and therefore he 'lost.'

What was I thinking! You're probably right as history has shown us not to trust anything that this administration says.

TwoShedsJackson

Amerika wrote: »

It’s interesting. Romney is better qualified, has more experience, and can deal with a diversity of people far better.

Surely one thing Romney has proved so far is that he is unable to connect with a diversity of people, hence his constant gaffes?

Black Swan

Per RCP reported polls, the trend appears to favour Obama (ranging from +1 to +8, including Rasmussen +1 to +5) since the last tie 3 September 2012 by CNN.

If we were to use SPC and treat the last 20 polls as samples over time, there would be a small but significant difference favouring Obama statistically.

The GOP must hope for an October surprise, or for Romney to act like JFK and win over Nixon in the debates (e.g., interesting flip side party comparison, when Republican VP Nixon lost to Democrat JFK by a small margin, with many pundits claiming the debate made the difference?).

LuckyLloyd

Amerika wrote: »

Thanks, but that still leaves the other two big questions... is it legal to place bets from the US, and what is the gov'ts tax cut?

You should open an account on InTrade. Their website has a lot of information on how to move money onto your account. Presidential contracts are selling Romney for 30 cents on the dollar at present, and if you are confident the market will move against Obama over the next few weeks you will have an easy opportunity to lock in profit before election day.

If you envisage market movement and wish to capitalise on it an exchange rather than a traditional bookmaker would be your best option.

Amerika

Rasmussen Reports, argued by many to be the best polling firm when it comes to presidential elections, reported today Wednesday 26 September:
Romney 46%
Obama 46%
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/obama_administration/daily_presidential_tracking_poll

Duck Soup

New Quinnipac/CBS/NYT swing states poll out today [conducted 18th to 24th September]:

Florida
Obama 53
Romney 44

Ohio
Obama 53
Romney 43

Pennsylvania
Obama 54
Romney 42