US 2012 Presidential Election Polls

Manic Moran

Don't see that affecting the Presidential race much.

Ozymandius2011

NBC/WSJ Wisconsin, Iowa and NH polls just out:

NBC/WSJ/Marist polls: Obama leads in Iowa, running neck and neck in N.H, Wis.
By Mark Murray, NBC News Senior Political Editor

Less than a week before Election Day, President Barack Obama holds a statistically significant lead over Republican nominee Mitt Romney in the battleground of Iowa, while the two candidates are locked in tight races in New Hampshire and Wisconsin, according to new NBC News/Wall Street Journal/Marist polls.

In Iowa, Obama is ahead by six points among likely voters, 50 percent to 44 percent, which is down from his eight-point lead earlier this month.

In Wisconsin, the president edges Romney by three points, 49 percent to 46 percent, which is within the survey’s margin of error. That’s also down from Obama’s six-point lead earlier this month.

Read the Wisconsin poll here (.pdf)
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And in New Hampshire, Obama gets support from 49 percent of likely voters, while Romney gets 47 percent. In September, before the debates began, Obama held a seven-point advantage in the state, 51 percent to 44 percent.

As the storm cleanup begins, the Republican presidential candidate is facing questions about his position on the federal government's role in disaster relief. NBC's Peter Alexander reports.

“To be at 49 or 50 [percent] is a good number this close to Election Day,” Lee Miringoff, the director of the Marist College Institute for Public Opinion, says of the president.

“But he doesn’t have to look far over his shoulder to see that half of the electorate isn’t with him and Romney is close.”

Yet Miringoff adds, “It is always better to be ahead than behind.”

Gender gap, early voting helping Obama
The surveys were conducted Oct. 28-29 – almost all of the interviews were conducted before Hurricane Sandy hit the East Coast, including New Hampshire – and they show a gender gap that’s benefitting Obama.

In all three states, he enjoys a double-digit lead among women (by 16 points in Iowa and New Hampshire, and by 14 points in Wisconsin).

Read the New Hampshire poll here (.pdf)

Meanwhile, Romney leads among men (by four points in Iowa, eight in Wisconsin, and 11 points in New Hampshire).

What’s also helping Obama is early voting.

In Iowa, according to the poll, 45 percent of respondents say they have already voted early or plan to do so, and Obama is winning those voters by nearly 30 points, 62 percent to 35 percent.

But Romney is winning Iowa voters who plan to vote on Election Day by 20 points, 55 percent to 35 percent.

New York is planning to put up tents that will act as polling places, but in the end the NBC's Chuck Todd says the burden of finding a place to vote remains with the voter.

(Iowa’s Secretary of State’s office says that nearly 532,000 early and absentee votes have been received as of Oct. 30, and that’s about 35 percent of the 2008 electorate in the state. But it also says that a total of 660,000 absentee ballots have been requested, and that’s 43 percent of Iowa’s 2008 electorate.)

In Wisconsin, 25 percent say they have already voted or will do so before Election Day, and those voters are breaking to Obama by a 59 percent to 39 percent clip.

Read the Iowa poll here (.pdf)
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And in New Hampshire, just 10 percent say they will be voting early, and Obama wins that small segment, 56 percent to 42 percent. Among Election Day voters in the state, 48 percent back Romney and 47 percent support Obama.

Higher favorable ratings benefitting Romney
However, what has helped Romney close the gap in these three states has been his rising favorable ratings since September.

The former Massachusetts governor’s favorable/unfavorable rating among likely voters in New Hampshire is 49 percent/46 percent – which is up from 43 percent/52 percent a month ago.
Slideshow: On the campaign trail

Reuters, Getty Images

In the final push in the 2012 presidential election, candidates Mitt Romney and Barack Obama make their last appeals to voters.

Launch slideshow

His score in Wisconsin is 47 percent/47 percent, which is improved from 43 percent/46 percent in September.

But in Iowa, Romney’s favorable/unfavorable rating remains upside down at 43 percent/49 percent.

Also, Romney leads Obama by three points in New Hampshire on which candidate would do a better job handling the economy (49 percent to 46 percent). But the two men are tied on this question in Iowa (at 45 percent each) and in Wisconsin (47 percent apiece).

Other findings

• Obama’s job-approval rating among likely voters is at 49 percent in Wisconsin and 48 percent in New Hampshire and Iowa.

• In Wisconsin’s competitive Senate contest, Democrat Tammy Baldwin gets the support of 48 percent of likely voters and Republican Tommy Thompson gets 47 percent.

• And in New Hampshire’s race for governor, Democrat Maggie Hassan leads Republican Ovide Lamontagne by five points, 49 percent to 44 percent.

The NBC/WSJ/Marist polls were conducted Oct. 28-29 of 1,142 likely voters in Iowa (which has a margin of error of plus-minus 2.9 percentage points), 1,013 likely voters in New Hampshire (plus-minus 3.1 percentage points) and 1,065 likely voters in Wisconsin (plus-minus 3.0 percentage points).

Is Rove up to his old tricks again in Ohio?

Already, a number of interesting developments have begun to take place. This time, SmarTech does not have a clearly defined role as it did four years ago. But three days ago, I reported that votes in several counties in Ohio were being counted by Hart Intercivic, a voting machine company linked to the Romney camp, even though a study by the state of Ohio had labeled its voting system a “failure” when it comes to protecting the integrity of elections.

That is not the only questionable happenstance in Ohio. According to a recent report by Reuters, billboards have begun to appear in low-income neighborhoods in Cleveland and elsewhere in Ohio asserting that “Voter Fraud Is a Felony!” punishable by up to three and a half years in prison and a $10,000 fine. According to a Cleveland city councilor, the purpose of the billboard campaign was likely to confuse and intimidate ex-criminals from voting — even though it is perfectly legal for them to do so once they have served their time. “I’m worried they will actually scare some of the ex-offenders, people with felony records who can vote,” said Phyllis Cleveland, whose district includes several of the billboards. She added that there is confusion about felons voting because it is illegal in some states — but not in Ohio, 12 other states and Washington, D.C. The billboards, which are paid for by an anonymous group, have been put up mostly in black and low-income communities that tend to vote heavily Democratic.

Meanwhile, when it comes to restricting absentee voting, which historically has favored Democrats, Secretary of State Jon Husted has been doing his part for the GOP cause. First, in early October, he issued directive 2012-48, ruling that if voters made errors on their absentee ballots, “Notification may not be made via telephone, email, facsimile or any other means.” In other words, because the error will stand uncorrected, their vote may be disqualified — a ruling that is likely to hurt Democrats since, historically, more absentee voters are Democrats.

Perhaps even more important, Husted, on his own initiative, had absentee ballot applications sent to nearly 7 million registered voters in Ohio, and, as a result, more than 800,000 people have so far requested absentee ballots but not completed and returned them. According to state law, if any of those 800,000 people who have requested absentee ballots show up to the voting booth, they will be required to cast a provisional ballot so that officials can make sure they are not voting twice.

However, state law also says that those ballots may not be counted until November 17, meaning that the outcome of the entire election might be delayed. “That would be called my nightmare scenario,” said Amy Searcy, director of the Hamilton County Board of Elections.

Agent Smith wrote: »

Source for this?

Here, here and here.

Update: Menendez's spokeswoman calls allegations false. Perhaps it's just a rightwing smear of the kind Drudge is notorious for but we shall see.

Manic Moran

According to a Cleveland city councilor, the purpose of the billboard campaign was likely to confuse and intimidate ex-criminals from voting — even though it is perfectly legal for them to do so once they have served their time. “I’m worried they will actually scare some of the ex-offenders, people with felony records who can vote,”

If they can't figure out the difference between the two, I wonder if they should be voting to begin with. It's like saying "Driving without insurance is a felony"* and having convicted felons worried that they'll be put in jail for going to an insurance company. I think that article-writer is just looking for an excuse.

NTM

*Actually, I think it's a misdemeanour, but the root point stands.

Ozymandius2011

Reuters Ipsos poll on how the national demographics are voting. Interestingly Romney does nearly 3 times better with bisexuals than gay voters and gets 59% of White Catholics. Since 1972, the Catholic vote has always gone to the winner.

Lennonist

So what's the story now, is Obama or Romney most likely to win?

Ozymandius2011

Obama leads in the Electoral College averages on RCP 290-248. But most of the swing states are razor thin (1-2%) so it could go either way and fraud and third parties could easily tip the balance.

Ponster

Lennonist wrote: »

So what's the story now, is Obama or Romney most likely to win?

As of today the polls (and PaddyPower) suggest Obama.

LuckyLloyd

Lennonist wrote: »

So what's the story now, is Obama or Romney most likely to win?

Obama is quite likely to win at this point.

brimal

Over the past 48 hours the polls have been slowly going back in Obama's favour.
CNN's 'Poll of Polls' for the first time in 30 days has Obama leading.

The swing states are still very close but the important one - Ohio, looks to be Obama's.
Despite all the bluster from GOP and it's supporters, it will take a big upset now for Romney to win.

Lennonist

Ponster wrote: »

As of today the polls (and PaddyPower) suggest Obama.

Good. Obama hasn't been perfect, but for the American people to return a Republican candidate only 4 years after a Republican President presided over the collapse of the American and international economic system would be farcical. Hopefully the latest predictions and polls are right and Obama will win.

Ozymandius2011

brimal wrote: »

Over the past 48 hours the polls have been slowly going back in Obama's favour.
CNN's 'Poll of Polls' for the first time in 30 days has Obama leading.

The swing states are still very close but the important one - Ohio, looks to be Obama's.
Despite all the bluster from GOP and it's supporters, it will take a big upset now for Romney to win.

As Lenin said: it's who counts the vote that matters. Ohio has a Republican Secretary of State and his figures on early voting are inconsistent with those of some of the counties according to the US Elections Project. In 2004 a different GOP SoS turned out to have a stake in an e-voting machine company providing them in Ohio. Also 58 counties destroyed their election records in violation of a court order after 300,000 votes mysteriously flipped from Kerry to Bush. I doubt that the repukes will allow Obama take Ohio again. In 2008 the SoS was a Democrat you see.

Duck Soup

The shift is slow but distinctly back towards Obama. If you look at the poll aggregators, which all had Romney ahead by a point or so for the last month, they've now got it pretty much evens. As of today:

Real Clear Politics
Obama 47.4
Romney 47.3

Five Thirty Eight
Obama 50.5
Romney 48.6

Poll Tracker [Talking Points Memo]
Obama 47.0
Romney 45.6

Pollster [Huffingon Post]
Obama 47.2
Romney 47.4

CNN Poll of Polls
Obama 48
Romney 47

Sam Wang over at the Princeton Election Consortium is another well-respected poll statistician, but his blog is only partially back up after an outage because of Superstorm Sandy. Well worth a look when it's fully back up and running.

http://election.princeton.edu/

brimal

The CNN poll of polls actually has Obama ahead by a point

Duck Soup

brimal wrote: »

The CNN poll of polls actually has Obama ahead by a point

Apologies Brimal - you're right. CNN Poll of Polls for October 30th had Romney up 48-47; CNN Poll of Polls for October 31st has Obama up 48-47. I've corrected it in the list.

It does reinforce the point that the polls are trending Obama. That's the first RCP average that's had Obama in the lead in a month.

Ozymandius2011

I think the polling averages are skewed by the fact that Gallup was forced to stop polling by Sandy. They are resuming it today though.

Gallup have also today announced another huge drop in unemployment from 7.8% to 7%. However it is unadjusted. The govt figures are tomorrow.

brimal

Duck Soup wrote: »

Apologies Brimal - you're right. CNN Poll of Polls for October 30th had Romney up 48-47; CNN Poll of Polls for October 31st has Obama up 48-47. I've corrected it in the list.

It does reinforce the point that the polls are trending Obama. That's the first RCP average that's had Obama in the lead in a month.

I agree that the polls are leaning to Obama now. It's the first CNN PoP that has Obama leading in over a month too. I would definitely trust RCP average more though.

The only polling company who consistently have Romney leading national and most swing states this week are Rasmussen. I'm not surprised given their Republican dealings.

Ozymandius2011

Rasmussen Iowa poll just out: Romney leads 49-48. Last poll said a tie. In Colorado Romney leads 50-47. Their national poll remains 49-47 for Romney. But they use party-weighting with 37% being GOP. Rasmussen and Gallup have consistently trended GOP since the 1st debate. Some pollsters are going to have egg on their faces on Wednesday.

Wisconsin in danger according to a Dem mayor.

National Review wrote:

“If the election was held today, President Barack Obama would lose the state of Wisconsin because where his base is, we have not turned out the vote early,” Mayor Michael Hancock told a Democratic rally. “The suburbs and rural parts of Wisconsin – the Republican base – are voting. President Obama’s base has yet to go vote.

“We’ve got to get our people to go vote,” Hancock said.

Later Hancock talks to the Washington Examiner and explains,

“This is a very close race, and the point we’re trying to make is make sure the base shows up, turns out and begins to vote early,” Hancock said. “I saw where the votes were rolling in, and I said we’ve got to make sure that where the president’s base is, they get out and vote.”

Disappointing turnout in Dem areas of VA:

Dave Wasserman of the Cook Political Report notes that the early vote in Virginia is not going the way the Obama campaign hoped: “Today’s new 10/31 numbers even more troubling for Obama. His best counties way off 2008 pace.” He elaborates that as of yesterday, 185,489 ballots had been cast in Obama localities, compared to 214,783 by this point in 2008, while 115,908 in McCain, compared to 117,224 in 2008.

He adds, “Obama strongholds Arlington -20.0%, Fairfax – 20.9%, Richmond -13.7% (vs. just -9.2% statewide). Hmm…” and “In Romney strongholds, enthusiasm up. Hanover (33.1% Obama) turnout up 6.2%, Buchanan (coal country) up 14.5% vs. 2008.”

Duck Soup

Ozymandius2011 wrote: »

I think the polling averages are skewed by the fact that Gallup was forced to stop polling by Sandy. They are resuming it today though.

Gallup have also today announced another huge drop in unemployment from 7.8% to 7%. However it is unadjusted. The govt figures are tomorrow.

If those unemployment figures are correct - and remember the only number that matters politically is that headline percentage - then it's just going to increase the Obama momentum.

I was watching Morning Joe and I think it was Mark Halperin who said that privately some Republican pollsters are saying they think Obama has the election "in the bag".

I think that's way overstating it, but certainly Team Romney is feeling the tide is against them. Some - off the record of course - have already started talking about Superstorm Sandy as being a tipping point in the race, giving President Obama the opportunity to look presidential, competent and compassionate. They're suggesting it as the point at which the momentum swung decisively back to Obama.

There are a good few on the right who are currently apoplectic at the Obama-Christie bromance. If Romney loses, I don't think Chris Christie is going to be on too many Christmas card lists at Fox News or the Heritage Foundation.

Duck Soup

The turn-out in Wisconsin may be patchy, but the only polling I've seen on Wisconsin early voting - and obviously this can be superceded by more recent ones I haven't seen - has Obama leading in the state.

A Marquette University Law School poll released Wednesday indicated that Democrats were outperforming Republicans in early voting.

Of the 10 percent of survey respondents who said they had already voted, 56 percent said they voted for Obama and 36 percent said they voted for Romney.

It's going to be tight and I think the Democrat Mayor quite rightly is firing up some of the counties to get into action, but the typical early Democrat lead is holding true.

http://www.wivb.com/dpp/onpolitix/barack_obama/Wisconsin-early-voting-ends-Friday_62302317

Midlife Crashes

Sorry I wasn't sure where else to ask this and I didn't want to make a thread as your forum seemingly has such high standards but anyway.
Which network will be best to watch for coverage on Tuesday. Usually I get my news from Al Jazeera as it is unbiased. I'm conservative but don't want to watch Fox News.
Any suggestions?

Amerika

No power, no phone, no internet... at home and work for almost a week. Many roads still closed, trees down everywhere, power lines laying all over the place, no water, schools closed all week, human sacrifice, dogs and cats living together... mass hysteria! I've been out of commission for week because of the Frankenstorm and now I see Obama is leading in the polls, and Romney is again behind in the EC. What the heck has happened? So much catching up to do, so little time till the election. (I see Santa bringing me a large generator to power house necessities this Christmas... especially if Obama wins as blackouts will become a common occurance)

Amerika

Midlife Crashes wrote: »

Sorry I wasn't sure where else to ask this and I didn't want to make a thread as your forum seemingly has such high standards but anyway.
Which network will be best to watch for coverage on Tuesday. Usually I get my news from Al Jazeera as it is unbiased. I'm conservative but don't want to watch Fox News.
Any suggestions?

C-Span and CNN

Brian?

Midlife Crashes wrote: »

Sorry I wasn't sure where else to ask this and I didn't want to make a thread as your forum seemingly has such high standards but anyway.
Which network will be best to watch for coverage on Tuesday. Usually I get my news from Al Jazeera as it is unbiased. I'm conservative but don't want to watch Fox News.
Any suggestions?

I'm actually hoping Fox will great to watch, it'll be hilarious if Obama wins.

For me, CNN is the least biased network news.

Conas

Brian? wrote: »

I'm actually hoping Fox will great to watch, it'll be hilarious if Obama wins.

For me, CNN is the least biased network news.

Fox News have Romney in the lead on all counts. A guy called Dick Morris thinks Romney will win by a lap. Good old Fox News eh hahahaha.

Duck Soup

Conas wrote: »

Fox News have Romney in the lead on all counts. A guy called Dick Morris thinks Romney will win by a lap. Good old Fox News eh hahahaha.

In point of fact, even Fox can't keep the Mittmentum story alive. Their most recent poll has a dead heat, 46-46, and the trend is downward for Romney.

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/interactive/2012/10/31/fox-news-poll-race-for-white-house-dead-heat/

Anything other than a clear lead for Romney in the popular vote won't be enough because of his deficit in the battleground states. If it's a dead heat in the popular vote, that would mean Obama picking up the majority of the battleground states.

Conas

Duck Soup wrote: »

Anything other than a clear lead for Romney in the popular vote won't be enough because of his deficit in the battleground states. If it's a dead heat in the popular vote, that would mean Obama picking up the majority of the battleground states.

They said Romney has a massive lead with Independent voters aswell. 54% to 46%. If I was to but a wager on who will win, I can't see anything else but a Romney win in this election.

Ozymandius2011

They said Romney has a massive lead with Independent voters aswell. 54% to 46%. If I was to but a wager on who will win, I can't see anything else but a Romney win in this election.

I heard that on Fox aswell. I am sceptical because:

- The Pew/Gallup polls were the ones cited and have been unusually strong for the GOP relative to other polls so far. Fox are cheerrypicking the most pro-GOP polls.
- The early-voting figures so far on a state-by-state basis show the Dems far stronger in the swing states. Even if Romney led in the early vote, it will do no good if he doesn't win the swing states. It is true from this site on early voting that Deep Red states like Texas are getting a strong turnout. But they were never in play anyway.
- The popular vote is not what elects the president. I don't know how many times it will take for some people to recognise this fact.

Overheal

Amerika wrote: »

No power, no phone, no internet... at home and work for almost a week. Many roads still closed, trees down everywhere, power lines laying all over the place, no water, schools closed all week, human sacrifice, dogs and cats living together... mass hysteria! I've been out of commission for week because of the Frankenstorm and now I see Obama is leading in the polls, and Romney is again behind in the EC. What the heck has happened? So much catching up to do, so little time till the election. (I see Santa bringing me a large generator to power house necessities this Christmas... especially if Obama wins as blackouts will become a common occurance)

Obama did a lot of disaster-response stuff, got praised by Chris Christie pretty glowingly, and yeah.

Hard to say how it will actually play out, or even if come election day people will even be in a fit state to vote in those areas affected by the superstorm

Duck Soup

Conas wrote: »

They said Romney has a massive lead with Independent voters aswell. 54% to 46%. If I was to but a wager on who will win, I can't see anything else but a Romney win in this election.

While I wouldn't discount the Romney lead amongst independents, there are a few caveats to it.

First off, the national polls include the independents you're talking about. The Fox numbers you quote for independents are part of the national number and weighted for in the poll.

Secondly, 54-46 amongst independents is a modest lead; 4 people out a hundred change their mind and you have parity.

And you're talking about a percentage of a percentage. In other words, independent voters make up the smallest of the 3 main registrations: Democrat, Republican and Independents. So let's take a look at the party registration in the biggest battleground state: Florida.

Party Registration in Florida

Democrat 41%
Republican 36%
Independents 21%

Assuming that all registered Democrats vote Democrats and all registered Republicans vote Republican, if you are getting 8% more of the independent vote, you're still going to lose. 8% of 21% = 1.68% of the total vote. Way short of the 5% you need to make up.

But it's a fair point and a polling riddle that has been raised a few times - how can Romney be winning independents and losing the popular vote?

In essence, the answer's fairly simple. There are a lot more registered Democrats than registered Republicans or Independents.

Frustratingly, I couldn't find a 2012 breakdown of the numbers, but here's the most recent I could find from 2010. Note that only 28 states allow you to register by party.

http://www.pollster.com/blogs/McDonald%20National%20Party%20Registration%20Table.php?nr=1

Democrats 43,396,994
Republicans 29,931,028
Independents 23,565,009

Those numbers might also go some way to explaining the ongoing discussions as to how polls are weighted.

The other thing to note is that there is a correlation between the numbers of registered Democrat voters in a state and the lead Romney has amongst independents in that state. The more strongly Democrat a state is, the more the 'independents' seem to break for Romney. So why is this?

Once again, to oversimplify, if it's a strongly Democratic state then Republican-leaning voters are more likely to register as independents. It's probably (a) a reaction to the prevailing political culture in the state - it's more comfortable and acceptable to say "I'm a registered Independent" in the likes of California than "I'm a registered Republican" and (b) the Republican brand is now so toxic that people won't wear the team colours by registering with them. Voting Republican is becoming a bit like **** - everyone does it, but no one admits to it.

A more mature and reasonable explanation of the phenomenon is to be found here:

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/nick-gourevitch/romney-lead-with-independents_b_2058290.html?utm_hp_ref=elections-2012

brimal

There isn't much battleground state polls out yet today but there has been one from New Hampshire.
It's only worth 4 electoral votes but analysts have said this state could prove crucial in such a tight election.

This state itself was fairly tight last week but today a poll has Obama leading by 6 points - 50/44.
More indication that the tide is slowly turning in Obama's favour.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/president/