US 2012 Presidential Election Polls

Amerika

How will the Trump thing affect election polls exactly?

Amerika

Mr.Micro wrote: »

Quick, get them voting machines ready:D

Is it coincidence that its Ohio, a swing state, that Tagg Romney has investments in voting machines?

And isn't Harry Reid's son and the SEIU involved with overseeing polling machines in Nevada?

Ozymandius2011

Washington Post poll (see feed at right of page) Romney leads 49-48.

Whites: Romney leads 59-38.
Women: Obama leads 56-41
Independents: Romney leads 54-41
Won 3rd debate: Obama leads 48-24

And no I am not a woman in answer to the question.

In 2004, Bush's approval rating was 52%, to 49% for Obama.

Corkfeen

Amerika wrote: »

How will the Trump thing affect election polls exactly?

A crazy man who is repeatedly trying to provoke and insult the president? I suspect the people who believe what he's peddling are already voting Romney. I'd be both surprised and rather disappointed in the American public if he sways the vote. I really can't see him having an impact.

nagilum2

This election is going to be so razor thin. It makes the appearance of impropriety that exists with Tagg Romney's partial ownership of Hart InterCivic through his private equity company and incidents like this, where a democratic congressman's son was caught red handed advising how to commit voter fraud in Virginia and stating that the Democratic party would provide legal backing to them if they got caught all the more alarming. Not to mention the existing known case of malfunctioning voting machines in North Carolina casting votes intended for Romney, for Obama.

I can only imagine both campaigns are working overtime to stack the deck in their favour. The stakes are too high, and the penalties (and likelihood of getting caught) too low for them and the cronies behind them not to be.

There's a real possibility that this the fight over this election makes the fight over the Bush-Gore election of 2000 look like sunflowers and rainbows.

Duck Soup

MSNBC reporting that Colin Powell has endorsed Obama for a second term. Apparently, he gave the endorsement on one of the network morning shows.

Ozymandius2011

Obama leads by 5 in Virginia in post-debate PPP poll today. PPP are Dem-aligned but have a good rep.

Latest early voting stats showing disappointing young turnout in NC but good Black one. In VA the young vote isn't bad. Don't be fooled by the 51% registered Dem vote in NC as many Southern Dems vote GOP in Presidential elections.

FatherTed

brimal wrote: »

Trump has announced if Obama makes his passport application/records and college applications/records public, he will donate $5 million to a charity of Obama's choice



Trump makes my skin crawl.

I like Stephen Colbert's rebuttal offer last night.

http://www.colbertnation.com/the-colbert-report-videos/420539/october-24-2012/donald-trump-s-october-surprise

Ozymandius2011

NC tied again at 48-48 in PPP poll. Unlike VA this time RCP have seen fit to include it, returning the state to a RCP "toss up". Obama leading 57-42 in early voting in NC it says. Romney leads 50-45 in those yet to vote. Independents lean Obama 46-45.

PPP wrote:

A key reason Obama remains competitive in North Carolina is that the Democratic base
is extremely fired up. That's been reflected in the early voter turnout to date, and we also
find that 77% of Democrats say they're 'very excited' to vote in the election this fall
compared to 65% of Republicans. Among African Americans 83% say they're 'very
excited' to cast their ballots.

Also Obama leads in PA 51-46 (Rasmussen).

Internals of their NC poll: Romney leads 53-42 with men, 61-35 with Whites, and 55-42 with seniors. Obama leads 53-43 with women, 88-11 with Blacks and 58-40 with young voters.

PPP Colorado poll: Obama leads 51-47. PPP Colorado poll internals:

Obama leads with: Hispanics 66-34, Women 54-44, Independents 51-43, Young voters 60-45. Romney leads with: Whites: 52-46, Men 49-47, Seniors 56-41. Gary Johnson on 2%.

Marajuana legalisation passing 53-43.

Why is RCP ignoring the PPP Virginia poll that has Obama leading by 5% and the CO poll? They included the NC one.

Black Swan

The RCP average, and the trend in polls listed since the 1st presidential debate, suggest a small margin win by Romney. The RCP average spread at this moment in time:

• Romney = 47.8
• Obama = 47.1
• Spread = +0.7 Romney

In contrast to this, the RCP no toss-up Electoral College map shows Obama winning (270 electoral votes to win):
Obama = 281
Romney = 257

Uncertainty is cast into these results by the toss-up EC map, which resembles more the trend slightly favouring Romney suggested by the RCP average. Romney may win the popular vote, like Gore did in 2000 by a half million votes over Bush, but lose in the Electoral College. This election is going to be close, with everyone holding their breath watching the final count in the final swing state; e.g., Bush winning over Gore by roughly 500 Florida votes, with a bit of controversy over vote counts, etc., typical of a close race.

Ozymandius2011

Hurricane Sandy may decide the outcome in NH, Ohio and PA by suppressing Dem turnout more than any GOP voter-ID law ever could. Fox are reporting meteorologists warning it's something "unseen in modern times". It's set to collide with another, Midwestern weather system. NH and PA don't allow early voting. It's set to hit the US northeast on Monday and reach PA on Wednesday and then Obama-friendly NE Ohio.

The Bishop!

Duck Soup wrote: »

MSNBC reporting that Colin Powell has endorsed Obama for a second term. Apparently, he gave the endorsement on one of the network morning shows.

That's nothing to do with Obama's policies though. It's because of their shared skin colour.

Or so says Romney campaign national co-chair John Sununu. He said the following on CNN:

You have to wonder whether that’s an endorsement based on issues or that he’s got a slightly different reason for President Obama...I think that when you have somebody of your own race that you’re proud of being President of the United States - I applaud Colin for standing with him.

Link

The damage limitation seems to have backfired. Again.
It seems all you have to do to get a gaffe from the Romney camp these days is stick them in front of a camera and get them talking.

Brian?

The Bishop! wrote: »

That's nothing to do with Obama's policies though. It's because of their shared skin colour.

Or so says Romney campaign national co-chair John Sununu. He said the following on CNN:


Link

The damage limitation seems to have backfired. Again.
It seems all you have to do to get a gaffe from the Romney camp these days is stick them in front of a camera and get them talking.

I think Colin finally gave up on Romney after the foreign policy debate.

Duck Soup

The Bishop! wrote: »

It seems all you have to do to get a gaffe from the Romney camp these days is stick them in front of a camera and get them talking.

It does seem as though normal service has been resumed. Romney's finding it difficult to extricate himself out from under Mordock's "babies from rape is God's gift" remark - his campaign put out a statement saying although he completely disagreed with Mourdock's remarks, he still supported him.

The problem is that, if the Republicans are to have any hope at all of getting control of the Senate, they can't throw the likes of Mourdock and Akin under the bus. They are the official Republican senate candidates and they can't now be taken off the ballot.

So we've got Romney taking half a step away from the candidates but still wanting them to get into the Senate, so Romney would be able get his bills through the Senate should he become president.

The largest chunk of the undecided voters is under 35 females and you've got to figure that this unseemly political pragmatism/opportunism won't play so well with them.

Ozymandius2011

Projected path of Hurricane Sandy not good news for Obama in Ohio or Pennsylvania. It is projected not to stop until November 1st and is being referred to in the media as a "Frankenstorm" that scientists say is unmatched for modern times. Power outages and flooding almost inevitable, possibly knocking out e-voting machines. 50 PA counties use them:

Conas

To be honest with you I can see Obama getting beaten by Romney on November the 6th. It's over as far as I'm concerned. Romney will be the next President. I wish him all the best. I just hope he'll do what he says he's going to do. He'll be under massive pressure with all these promises he's made. Obama came across as far too timid in the debates.

Brian?

Conas wrote: »

To be honest with you I can see Obama getting beaten by Romney on November the 6th. It's over as far as I'm concerned. Romney will be the next President. I wish him all the best. I just hope he'll do what he says he's going to do. He'll be under massive pressure with all these promises he's made. Obama came across as far too timid in the debates.

I'm starting to get that sinking feeling myself. The most depressing part is that Romney can't do exactly what he's promised because he's contradicted himself so often.

joseph brand

The Bishop! wrote: »

That's nothing to do with Obama's policies though. It's because of their shared skin colour.

Or so says Romney campaign national co-chair John Sununu. He said the following on CNN:


Link

The damage limitation seems to have backfired. Again.
It seems all you have to do to get a gaffe from the Romney camp these days is stick them in front of a camera and get them talking.

Apparently, Sununu's snipe at Powell might be intentional, politically. A distraction from the fact that a man like Powell would look at the two candidates and see Romney as such a bad excuse for a president, concerning foreign policy, the economy, education, immigration etc etc that he is actually endorsing Obama. Powell is well respected:

From Wikipedia: Colin Luther Powell ( /ˈkoʊlɨn/; born April 5, 1937) is an American statesman and a retired four-star general in the United States Army.[1] He was the 65th United States Secretary of State, serving under President George W. Bush from 2001 to 2005. He was the first African American to serve in that position.[2][3][4][5] During his military career, Powell also served as National Security Advisor (1987–1989), as Commander of the U.S. Army Forces Command (1989) and as Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff (1989–1993), holding the latter position during the Gulf War. He was the first, and so far the only, African American to serve on the Joint Chiefs of Staff.

Basically, this is a massive blow to Romney and that other guy!!

"Lob in the Sununu smokescreen!"

Here's a clip from Martin Bashir:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6vJEg9VbLes

joseph brand

Conas wrote: »

To be honest with you I can see Obama getting beaten by Romney on November the 6th. It's over as far as I'm concerned. Romney will be the next President. I wish him all the best. I just hope he'll do what he says he's going to do. He'll be under massive pressure with all these promises he's made. Obama came across as far too timid in the debates.

What you just wrote, it's like you 'legitimately raped' my eyeballs. If Romney is elected, which he won't be, it will be an embarrassment to America. There'll be 'horses and bayonets' in the streets.

The electorate gets who they deserve, but America doesn't deserve Romney and that Ayn Rand advocate.

They elected Bush, Palin was McCain's running mate and Santorum got a look in, so, anything's possible, all things considered.

Duck Soup

Brian? wrote: »

I'm starting to get that sinking feeling myself. The most depressing part is that Romney can't do exactly what he's promised because he's contradicted himself so often.

But the weird thing is that Nate Silver has Obama's chance of winning the election up to 74.4%.

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/

If memory serves me right, it was as low as 61.1% a couple of weeks ago.

A couple of things appear to be happening. The Mittmentum seems to have pretty much stopped. The sinking feeling amongst Democrats has been fed by media reports constantly repeating the Romney campaign line of unstoppable momentum and a continual drift over voters towards Romney.

Silver, and in fairness now a good few others, have said "Waaait a minute..." and taken a look at the numbers. The numbers say any move in polls towards Romney in the last week is nil. If anything, there's a modest move back in the opposite direction.

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/10/25/oct-24-in-polls-romneys-momentum-seems-to-have-stopped/

The other part of the polling puzzle is that it's now becoming clear that Romney has peaked nationally and in the battleground states. And while he's at parity or perhaps a point ahead nationally, he's behind in the majority of battleground states. Other quirks are that Obama maintains strong leads amongst women in the battleground states whereas he's neck-and-neck amongst women nationally. In other words, the battleground micro-climates are vastly different to the national political atmosphere.

The broad narrative matters. A few things have happened over the last few days. GDP has grown in the last quarter to 2%. Mourdock in Indiana has made one of those toe-curling statements on pregnancy and rape that Republican candidates seem to specialize in and Romney can't bring himself to disown him (he needs Mourdock in the Senate). Romney campaign co-chair, John Sununu, has chipped in with an ugly inference about why Colin Powell endorsed Obama.

Romney himself has flat-out lied just yesterday at a rally in Ohio about Jeep shipping all its jobs in the state to China.

http://www.detroitnews.com/article/20121026/POLITICS01/210260402/1121/AUTO01/Romney--Chrysler-may-move-Jeep-production-to-China

The funny thing about the media is that they need big stories and they like changes in the narrative. If the Romney campaign reverts back to bumbling, clanger-prone type and its numbers start to deflate, that becomes the new narrative.

Brian?

Duck Soup wrote: »

But the weird thing is that Nate Silver has Obama's chance of winning the election up to 74.4%.

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/

If memory serves me right, it was as low as 61.1% a couple of weeks ago.

A couple of things appear to be happening. The Mittmentum seems to have pretty much stopped. The sinking feeling amongst Democrats has been fed by media reports constantly repeating the Romney campaign line of unstoppable momentum and a continual drift over voters towards Romney.

Silver, and in fairness now a good few others, have said "Waaait a minute..." and taken a look at the numbers. The numbers say any move in polls towards Romney in the last week is nil. If anything, there's a modest move back in the opposite direction.

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/10/25/oct-24-in-polls-romneys-momentum-seems-to-have-stopped/

The other part of the polling puzzle is that it's now becoming clear that Romney has peaked nationally and in the battleground states. And while he's at parity or perhaps a point ahead nationally, he's behind in the majority of battleground states. Other quirks are that Obama maintains strong leads amongst women in the battleground states whereas he's neck-and-neck amongst women nationally. In other words, the battleground micro-climates are vastly different to the national political atmosphere.

The broad narrative matters. A few things have happened over the last few days. GDP has grown in the last quarter to 2%. Mourdock in Indiana has made one of those toe-curling statements on pregnancy and rape that Republican candidates seem to specialize in and Romney can't bring himself to disown him (he needs Mourdock in the Senate). Romney campaign co-chair, John Sununu, has chipped in with an ugly inference about why Colin Powell endorsed Obama.

Romney himself has flat-out lied just yesterday at a rally in Ohio about Jeep shipping all its jobs in the state to China.

http://www.detroitnews.com/article/20121026/POLITICS01/210260402/1121/AUTO01/Romney--Chrysler-may-move-Jeep-production-to-China

The funny thing about the media is that they need big stories and they like changes in the narrative. If the Romney campaign reverts back to bumbling, clanger-prone type and its numbers start to deflate, that becomes the new narrative.

Great post. I think living in a red state is getting to me. I believed it was in the bag for Obama pre debates. I believed that debates never change the outcome of presidential elections. I think I'll go back to that.

What are the numbers from Ohio again......

Mr.Micro

Brian? wrote: »

I'm starting to get that sinking feeling myself. The most depressing part is that Romney can't do exactly what he's promised because he's contradicted himself so often.

Months ago Romney was virtually out of the running, struggling with the big lead Obama had. Now with both neck and neck, one would mathematically have to favour Romney. I hope that Obama wins but I fear Romney will edge it at the finish. The Americians want the economy fixed, the rest of the world do not want a maverick in power, not knowing what foreign policy will be enacted that will affect the greater good of all.

nagilum2

I think Romney is the favourite to win the popular vote at this point, but not the electoral college. He has a very tough time winning without Ohio, and Obama is doing everything he can to hold it.

I'd have to predict Obama eeks out a 271-267 win in the EC while Romney wins the overall popular vote by about a percentage point. Obama has been getting weaker numbers in deep blue states and Romney strong advantages in the deep red states.

Silver's models do simulations by looking at the state by state electoral votes, and I think in part, that's why he's reflecting the higher percentage for Obama. There are simply fewer ways for Romney to win the EC. If Romney doesn't get Ohio, there are almost no ways for him to win.

Ozymandius2011

nagilum2 wrote: »

I think Romney is the favourite to win the popular vote at this point, but not the electoral college. He has a very tough time winning without Ohio, and Obama is doing everything he can to hold it.

I'd have to predict Obama eeks out a 271-269 win in the EC while Romney wins the overall popular vote by about a percentage point. Obama has been getting weaker numbers in deep blue states and Romney strong advantages in the deep red states.

Silver's models do simulations by looking at the state by state electoral models, and I think in part, that's why he's reflecting the higher percentage for Obama. There are simply fewer ways for Romney to win the EC. If Romney doesn't get Ohio, there are almost no ways for him to win.

there are 538 members of the E.C. so I assume you meant 271-267. Unless you expect "faithless electors" to defect from one side or the other.

Does anyone think that if it were that close, Obama electors could defect to Romney in order to respect the popular vote?

nagilum2

Ozymandius2011 wrote: »

there are 538 members of the E.C. so I assume you meant 271-267. Unless you expect "faithless electors" to defect from one side or the other.

Oops, sorry, yes that's what I meant.

cristoir

Ozymandius2011 wrote: »

there are 538 members of the E.C. so I assume you meant 271-267. Unless you expect "faithless electors" to defect from one side or the other.

Does anyone think that if it were that close, Obama electors could defect to Romney in order to respect the popular vote?

Would depend on the media storm after the election. The democrats would likely pull the "our fore founders vision" line and given what Bush pulled off in 2000 I'd say get away it. Interesting if is we do get different results in the electoral collage then in the popular vote given that it'll be the 2nd time in 4 elections (2000 was just supposed to be an anomaly) the voices for reform will get louder.

nagilum2

cristoir wrote: »

Would depend on the media storm after the election. The democrats would likely pull the "our fore founders vision" line and given what Bush pulled off in 2000 I'd say get away it. Interesting if is we do get different results in the electoral collage then in the popular vote given that it'll be the 2nd time in 4 elections (2000 was just supposed to be an anomaly) the voices for reform will get louder.

If Obama wins the electoral college vote, he wins the presidency, no matter what the popular vote says. The republicans will scream and wail and say he has no mandate, but ultimately if Obama loses the pop vote but wins the EC, he will have a second term.

Ozymandius2011

NC firmly out of reach now with Romney leading 6% in Rasmussen. Behind 13% in Missouri.

Brian?

cristoir wrote: »

Would depend on the media storm after the election. The democrats would likely pull the "our fore founders vision" line and given what Bush pulled off in 2000 I'd say get away it. Interesting if is we do get different results in the electoral collage then in the popular vote given that it'll be the 2nd time in 4 elections (2000 was just supposed to be an anomaly) the voices for reform will get louder.

The complaint in 2000 was not about who won the popular vote, it was only about how Florida was "won".

Both sides will accept the EC. You'd swear 2000 was the first time anyone won the presidency but lost the popular vote.

http://americanhistory.about.com/od/uspresidents/f/pres_unpopular.htm

Having said that, the EC needs to be reformed.

Conas

joseph brand wrote: »

What you just wrote, it's like you 'legitimately raped' my eyeballs. If Romney is elected, which he won't be, it will be an embarrassment to America. There'll be 'horses and bayonets' in the streets.

The electorate gets who they deserve, but America doesn't deserve Romney and that Ayn Rand advocate.

They elected Bush, Palin was McCain's running mate and Santorum got a look in, so, anything's possible, all things considered.

Look I'll be honest with you. I'm neither party anymore, I'm very much independent, but I think it's vital that a candidate shows some conviction, and direction in the debates. Obama has leaned on too many people to save his bacon during this campaign, and to me he's show himself up to be too weak and timid. The last decade has probaly been the worst in America for decades nobody is denying it, and no one is denying that it was Bush and the Republicans at the helm. But I hope the Republicans will have learned from their mistakes. If Romney says he can create 12 millions new jobs, and get the economy going again well that's good enough for me. Lets all face it, Obama has failed on a lot of promises aswell. I have great convidence that Romney will do what Reagan did from 1980 onwards, and that's what America needs right now. Obama has been like Jimmy Carter, if not worse.