US 2012 Presidential Election Polls

Ponster

> If Romney says he can create 12 millions new jobs, and get the economy going again well that's good enough for me.

I'm pretty sure that analysts have already predicted that the US is set to create 12 million new jobs over the next 5 years no matter who becomes president. It's a safe bet to make it would seem.

Conas

Ponster wrote: »

> If Romney says he can create 12 millions new jobs, and get the economy going again well that's good enough for me.

I'm pretty sure that analysts have already predicted that the US is set to create 12 million new jobs over the next 5 years no matter who becomes president. It's a safe bet to make it would seem.

Well there is another good reason to vote for Romney then, because at least he's telling the truth. I didn't hear Obama saying he would create that many jobs, actually Obama has said nothing to make me think he deserves another 4 years.

Corkfeen

Conas wrote: »

Well there is another good reason to vote for Romney then, because at least he's telling the truth. I didn't hear Obama saying he would create that many jobs, actually Obama has said nothing to make me think he deserves another 4 years.

But neither of them can really claim credit for the creation of the jobs. It is supposed to happen no matter who is in office so it would be intellectually dishonest to claim any credit.

DonnaMarieAva

Conas wrote: »

Well there is another good reason to vote for Romney then, because at least he's telling the truth. I didn't hear Obama saying he would create that many jobs, actually Obama has said nothing to make me think he deserves another 4 years.

Actually, if you click on the link I have provided it will show you how much the American economy has grown since Obama took office.

http://www.google.com/publicdata/explore?ds=d5bncppjof8f9_#!ctype=l&strail=false&bcs=d&nselm=h&met_y=ny_adj_nnty_kd_zg&scale_y=lin&ind_y=false&rdim=country&idim=country:USA&ifdim=country&tstart=57366000000&tend=1288134000000&hl=en_US&dl=en_US&ind=false

Remember, he had a lot on his shoulders before he was even sworn into office. He had to clean up the Republicans mess ie Bush. If I was an American citizen, I would vote for Obama in the election. But I'm not. I'm Irish. I just hope that the Americans make the right decision when it comes to the future of their country. If Romney takes office, one of the first things he would do is start a war. And that of course will cost the tax payers millions. Watch this space ...

Ponster

Conas wrote: »

Well there is another good reason to vote for Romney then, because at least he's telling the truth. I didn't hear Obama saying he would create that many jobs, actually Obama has said nothing to make me think he deserves another 4 years.

My guess is that Obama knows that this will/should happen no matter who is president and is keeping quiet about it now so that in 4 years time the Democrats will take credit for it resulting in their candidate defeating Jeb Bush in the 2016 election

Conas

DonnaMarieAva wrote: »

Actually, if you click on the link I have provided it will show you how much the American economy has grown since Obama took office.

http://www.google.com/publicdata/explore?ds=d5bncppjof8f9_#!ctype=l&strail=false&bcs=d&nselm=h&met_y=ny_adj_nnty_kd_zg&scale_y=lin&ind_y=false&rdim=region&idim=region:NAC&ifdim=region&tstart=57366000000&tend=1288134000000&hl=en_US&dl=en_US&ind=false

Remember, he had a lot on his shoulders before he was even sworn into office. He had to clean up the Republicans mess ie Bush. If I was an American citizen, I would vote for Obama in the election. But I'm not. I'm Irish. I just hope that the Americans make the right decision when it comes to the future of their country. If Romney takes office, one of the first things he would do is start a war. And that of course will cost the tax payers millions. Watch this space ...

I know what you mean, but I just hope the Republicans have learned from their mistakes over the last decade. They did a good thing by not having Bush/Cheney involved in their convention at all, so maybe their wiping the whole slate clean and starting fresh. I disagree with you that he'll start a war, everyone seems to be afraid he'll do that. It doesn't just cost the tax payer millions, it costs them billions more like.

Romney is all about the economy though, and getting people back to work I like that about him. He seems to me like a guy who will get stuck in and work really hard.

DonnaMarieAva

Conas wrote: »

I know what you mean, but I just hope the Republicans have learned from their mistakes over the last decade. They did a good thing by not having Bush/Cheney involved in their convention at all, so maybe their wiping the whole slate clean and starting fresh. I disagree with you that he'll start a war, everyone seems to be afraid he'll do that. It doesn't just cost the tax payer millions, it costs them billions more like.

Romney is all about the economy though, and getting people back to work I like that about him. He seems to me like a guy who will get stuck in and work really hard.

Maybe be so. But his stance on the economy won't take away from what he thinks of abortion. How he's going to get away with that one I do not know.

Mjollnir

Conas wrote: »

I know what you mean, but I just hope the Republicans have learned from their mistakes over the last decade.

** intergalactic facepalm **

WHY on earth would you ever 'hope' that when there is absolutely zero data or evidence to indicate that they've done any other than get even more radical and irrational than they were in the past decade?

Have you been paying attention at all to who they're running and what's in their platform?

They did a good thing by not having Bush/Cheney involved in their convention at all, so maybe their wiping the whole slate clean and starting fresh.

So the pure and transparent charade of keeping those two away from the convention brings you to the belief that they're wiping the slate clean and starting over? That's strains all credulity to the breaking point and well past.

I disagree with you that he'll start a war, everyone seems to be afraid he'll do that. It doesn't just cost the tax payer millions, it costs them billions more like. Romney is all about the economy though, and getting people back to work I like that about him. He seems to me like a guy who will get stuck in and work really hard.

Since when have republican POTUSes ever cared about what wars and foreign adventurism costs, and given that he's been utterly obtuse about how he'll achieve his goals, what are you talking about?

southsiderosie

MOD NOTE -

I'd like to remind folks that this thread is about polling - if you'd like to debate jobs, etc., please take it to an existing thread or start a new one.

Ozymandius2011

Nate Silver on Fivethirtyeight.com has made this table showing how accurate the state as opposed to national) polls were in past elections. He found that when the average lead was 2%+, the leading candidate always won that state, whereas under that it was touch and go sometimes.

Ozymandius2011

Obama-Romney tied on 49% in Ohio newspaper poll.


Unfortunately for Obama, Hurricane Sandy will hit Eastern Ohio and not the Western part of the state. But Obama is well ahead among early voters (one in five have already voted).

It remains the case that Romney has not led in a SINGLE poll in Ohio ever.

Meanwhile Obama leads just 3% in Minnesota, which hasn't voted GOP for President since 1972.

Ponster

Ozymandius2011 wrote: »

But Obama is well ahead among early voters (one in five have already voted).

Latest news is that 1/3 of people have already voted in Ohio.

The poll you link too is interesting but it's almost the only one that hasn't Obama leading.

This is a summery of the most recent polls. You can see that Obama has lost a lot of ground since September but is is still on average 2 points ahead.

Ozymandius2011

Ponster wrote: »

Latest news is that 1/3 of people have already voted in Ohio

Source? The American Elections Project says its 17.8%.

Ponster

Ozymandius2011 wrote: »

Source?

Thanks! Turns out I had misread the New York Times this morning

It in fact said that by election day 30% of Ohioans will have already voted.

Ozymandius2011

PPP poll just out has Obama leading 49-48 in Florida. Dem-aligned pollster mind. Gravis poll has Obama leading in Ohio 50-49.

Duck Soup

A new Politico/George Washington University Battleground Tracking Poll [conducted October 22nd to 25th] has Obama re-taking the lead in the Presidential race 49 to 48. Despite the 'Battleground' name, it's actually a nationwide poll, jointly conducted by Republican pollster Ed Goeas of The Tarrance Group and Democratic pollster Celinda Lake of Lake Research Partners.

That's a 3 point swing from the previous week's Battleground poll, which had Romney at 49 and Obama 47. It fits in with the growing consensus that the national 'mittmentum' is spent and it might also suggest that the effects of the final debate are now feeding into the polls.

http://mediarelations.gwu.edu/politico-george-washington-university-battleground-tracking-poll

seligehgit

Appears to be getting tight
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/2012_elections_electoral_college_map_no_toss_ups.html

Duck Soup

New Quinnipiac University/New York Times/CBS News battleground states poll out today [conducted October 23rd to 28th] has Obama up in Ohio, Virginia and Florida.

Ohio
Obama 50
Romney 45

Virginia
Obama 49
Romney 47

Florida
Obama 48
Romney 47

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/institutes-centers/polling-institute/presidential-swing-states-(fl-oh-and-pa)/release-detail?ReleaseID=1812

Brian?

Duck Soup wrote: »

New Quinnipiac University/New York Times/CBS News battleground states poll out today [conducted October 23rd to 28th] has Obama up in Ohio, Virginia and Florida.

Ohio
Obama 50
Romney 45

Virginia
Obama 49
Romney 47

Florida
Obama 48
Romney 47

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/institutes-centers/polling-institute/presidential-swing-states-(fl-oh-and-pa)/release-detail?ReleaseID=1812

If Obama takes Florida and Ohio, it's done. No way back for Romney.

If Obama takes Ohio it's pretty much over anyway as far as I can see. There is a slim chance. Romney needs to take PA, VA, NC and IA. A stretch.

Ozymandius2011

Is the stealing of Ohio for the GOP underway as allegedly happened in 2004?

The Ohio Secretary of State report dated Oct. 30 states:

With one week to go before Election Day, Ohio Secretary of State Jon Husted today released the latest absentee voting data for Ohio based upon an informal survey of Ohio’s 88 boards of elections.

As of Friday, October 26th, more than 1.2 million Ohioans had already cast their ballots. Of the 1.3 million absentee ballots that have been mailed to voters during the absentee voting period, more than 950,000 have already been returned or 71.9 percent. In addition, more than 306,000 voters had voted in person at their board of elections or designated vote center.

The report links to a graphic which indicates 950,544 mail ballots had been returned and 306,776 in-person votes had been cast, for a total of 1,257,320, which I report above.

As of Tuesday evening, I compiled the current reports from counties that are publicly providing statistics. These are also reported above. Note, that these county reports are not entirely comparable as some were generated Tuesday morning and others were generated Tuesday evening. Presumably, the evening reports include the ballots cast on Tuesday. There are some counties with dated reports, and Lake county's system is disturbingly reporting clearly erroneous numbers. Perhaps these problems are related to the weather (I have since updated this report).

The Ohio Secretary of State's office Sent me their county level spreadsheet, current as of Oct. 2t6. I do not know what to make of it. There are 17 counties reporting fewer early votes as of Tuesday, Oct. 30 than were reported to the Secretary of State's office on Friday, Oct. 26. I will continue to explore these data before updating the Ohio overall number.

I spoke with Cuyahoga's media officer and confirmed that their report includes in-person votes even if it says "vote by mail." Generally, Ohio calls all ballots -- regardless if they are voted by mail or in-person -- absentee ballots. In-person votes are often identified in the county absentee reports as "IN OFFICE" or "OVER THE COUNTER".

Manic Moran

Ozymandius2011 wrote: »

Is the stealing of Ohio for the GOP underway as allegedly happened in 2004?

I am intrigued that you are attributing the beneficiary of this to the GOP. The only county named in that quote, Lake County, has more registered Democrats than Republicans.

That said, it is also arguably the most bell-weather county in the Union. The county is run by three commissioners, one Rep, one Dem, and one who doesn't seem to state an affiliation at all, so it's pretty neutral.

Ozymandius2011

Is it possible the GOP is editing Dem-county election returns though? Also you say the county has more Dems. But does the GOP control the county election authorities? Remember that in 2004, 58 Ohio counties destroyed their election records in defiance of as court order.

Below is a report of the alleged stealing of Ohio for Bush in 2004:

Details on the alleged hacking of the voting machines by the GOP in 2004 to hand the state to Bush.

New court filing reveals how the 2004 Ohio presidential election was hacked
by Bob Fitrakis
July 20, 2011
A new filing in the King Lincoln Bronzeville v. Blackwell case includes a copy of the Ohio Secretary of State election production system configuration that was in use in Ohio's 2004 presidential election when there was a sudden and unexpected shift in votes for George W. Bush.

The filing also includes the revealing deposition of the late Michael Connell. Connell served as the IT guru for the Bush family and Karl Rove. Connell ran the private IT firm GovTech that created the controversial system that transferred Ohio's vote count late on election night 2004 to a partisan Republican server site in Chattanooga, Tennessee owned by SmarTech. That is when the vote shift happened, not predicted by the exit polls, that led to Bush's unexpected victory. Connell died a month and a half after giving this deposition in a suspicious small plane crash.

Additionally, the filing contains the contract signed between then-Ohio Secretary of State J. Kenneth Blackwell and Connell's company, GovTech Solutions. Also included that contract a graphic architectural map of the Secretary of State's election night server layout system.

Cliff Arnebeck, lead attorney in the King Lincoln case, exchanged emails with IT security expert Stephen Spoonamore. Arnebeck asked Spoonamore whether or not SmarTech had the capability to "input data" and thus alter the results of Ohio's 2004 election. Spoonamore responded: "Yes. They would have had data input capacities. The system might have been set up to log which source generated the data but probably did not."

Spoonamore explained that "they [SmarTech] have full access and could change things when and if they want."

Arnebeck specifically asked "Could this be done using whatever bypass techniques Connell developed for the web hosting function." Spoonamore replied "Yes."

Spoonamore concluded from the architectural maps of the Ohio 2004 election reporting system that, "SmarTech was a man in the middle. In my opinion they were not designed as a mirror, they were designed specifically to be a man in the middle."

A "man in the middle" is a deliberate computer hacking setup, which allows a third party to sit in between computer transmissions and illegally alter the data. A mirror site, by contrast, is designed as a backup site in case the main computer configuration fails.

Spoonamore claims that he confronted then-Secretary of State Blackwell at a secretary of state IT conference in Boston where he was giving a seminar in data security. "Blackwell freaked and refused to speak to me when I confronted him about it long before I met you," he wrote to Arnebeck.

Read the email correspondence here [pdf]

On December 14, 2007, then-Secretary of State Jennifer Brunner, who replaced Blackwell, released her evaluation and validation of election-related equipment, standards and testing (Everest study) which found that touchscreen voting machines were vulnerable to hacking with relative ease.

Until now, the architectural maps and contracts from the Ohio 2004 election were never made public, which may indicate that the entire system was designed for fraud. In a previous sworn affidavit to the court, Spoonamore declared: "The SmarTech system was set up precisely as a King Pin computer used in criminal acts against banking or credit card processes and had the needed level of access to both county tabulators and Secretary of State computers to allow whoever was running SmarTech computers to decide the output of the county tabulators under its control."

Spoonamore also swore that "...the architecture further confirms how this election was stolen. The computer system and SmarTech had the correct placement, connectivity, and computer experts necessary to change the election in any manner desired by the controllers of the SmarTech computers."

Project Censored named the outsourcing of Ohio's 2004 election votes to SmarTech in Chattanooga, Tennessee to a company owned by Republican partisans as one of the most censored stories in the world.

In the Connell deposition, plaintiffs' attorneys questioned Connell regarding gwb43, a website that was live on election night operating out of the White House and tied directly into SmarTech's server stacks in Chattanooga, Tennessee which contained Ohio's 2004 presidential election results.

The transfer of the vote count to SmarTech in Chattanooga, Tennessee remains a mystery. This would have only happened if there was a complete failure of the Ohio computer election system. Connell swore under oath that, "To the best of my knowledge, it was not a fail-over case scenario – or it was not a failover situation."

Bob Magnan, a state IT specialist for the secretary of state during the 2004 election, agreed that there was no failover scenario. Magnan said he was unexpectedly sent home at 9 p.m. on election night and private contractors ran the system for Blackwell.

The architectural maps, contracts, and Spoonamore emails, along with the history of Connell's partisan activities, shed new light on how easy it was to hack the 2004 Ohio presidential election.

Now the GOP are threatening to arrest OSCE election observers in Iowa.

nagilum2

More trouble in Ohio. This time a voting machine initially replacing an intended vote for Romney with one for Obama:

http://www.marionstar.com/article/20121031/NEWS03/310310009/Problem-found-board-elections?nclick_check=1

Upon selecting “Mitt Romney” on the electronic touch screen, Barack Obama’s name lit up.

It took Stevens three tries before her selection was accurately recorded.

“You want to vote for who you want to vote for, and when you can’t it’s irritating,” Stevens said.

Stevens said she alerted Jackie Smith, a board of elections member who was present. Smith declined to comment, but Stevens says she mentioned that the machine had been having problems all day.

It's my belief that both sides are likely doing everything they can to get every advantage, legal or not. It's certainly not confined to any one party.

Ozymandius2011

Drudge claiming the campaign is about to be rocked by a sex-scandal. However they have a record of hoax sex scandals - and some that are true...

Manic Moran

I can't imagine a sex scandal rocking the election, true or not.

Ozymandius2011

Manic Moran wrote: »

I can't imagine a sex scandal rocking the election, true or not.

It could very well in a race this close, especially in the South.

Mr.Micro

Ozymandius2011 wrote: »

It could very well in a race this close, especially in the South.

Is that not the irony of many Americans? They will see stuff on the tv and news killings, invasions by the US, rightly or wrongly, but when it comes to a bit of sex, well that's the limit. Lol. Don't they have sex in the South?

brimal

Today was a good day for the Obama campaign.

Obama looked every bit presidential in his response to the Sandy aftermath and the high praise he received from GOP Gov. Christie was a nice bonus.

Obama has had some nice poll results today and personally I think he will take OH, WI and NV - that's all he needs. Romney will take FL but it will be in vain.

There is talk in Ohio that the public are fuming over Romney's Jeeps-to-China lies.

Ozymandius2011

Reports the scandal involves a prominent NJ Dem Senator using prostitutes on taxpayer funded trips to the Dominican Republic. More seriously they may or may not have been underage...

Agent Smith

Ozymandius2011 wrote: »

Reports the scandal involves a prominent NJ Dem Senator using prostitutes on taxpayer funded trips to the Dominican Republic. More seriously they may or may not have been underage...

Source for this?