Sprinter Sacre

Huntley

Ice87 wrote: »

It's funny how people discount Al ferofs chances when he put in a good run against anything better then SS has run against.

Al Ferof ran against better opposition but he didn't beat them. He finished ahead of Forpadydeplasterer who is rated lower than French Opera. A line through I'm So Lucky has them on similar enough terms, the difference being that Sprinter Sacre did it on the bridle while Al Ferof was all out.

I must also refer to Al Ferof's abysmal top speed rating of 132. He simply isn't quick enough for two miles.

Ice87 wrote: »

I can see ruby going for this a long way out.

He will be rowing away a long way out just to keep up.

For Al Ferof to win this he would literally need the horses in front to stop to a light canter going up the hill. This isn't the Supreme where he will be running on past immature horses.

ft9

Huntley, do you think Sprinter Sacre has much in him off the bridal?

Huntley

ft9 wrote: »

Huntley, do you think Sprinter Sacre has much in him off the bridal?

He doesn't seem like the horse that will kick on again like SE does but I don't think he will completely empty either. He has such a high cruising speed that he will have them all at it before he needs to go to the locker himself.

ft9

I just can't wait for the Arkle. I'm hoping he blows them away, not for the money I will win, but for knowing another superstar has arrived.

Segal said he'l win by a fence. Certainly looks a different class. All will be revealed next week.

RichieLawlor

Ascot, Ayr, Ascot, Ffos Las, Ascot, Cheltenham, Doncaster, Kempton, Newbury.

List of SS racecourse appearances.

Won 7, beaten 2.

Beaten at Cheltenham and Ascot, also only staggered home at Ascot on his debut.

Combined 70l winning distances at other tracks.

The difference, Ascot and Cheltenham are stiff tracks, the rest are flat as a pancake.

Huntley

RichieLawlor wrote: »

Ascot, Ayr, Ascot, Ffos Las, Ascot, Cheltenham, Doncaster, Kempton, Newbury.

List of SS racecourse appearances.

Won 7, beaten 2.

Beaten at Cheltenham and Ascot, also only staggered home at Ascot on his debut.

Combined 70l winning distances at other tracks.

The difference, Ascot and Cheltenham are stiff tracks, the rest are flat as a pancake.

I'm not discarding your angle here but you have left out some key variables.

The race he lost at Ascot was over 2m 4f. He never ran over that distance before and hasn't since. He also pulled very hard at the start.

He won at Ascot two starts later over 2 miles when giving weight all around. He was keen throughout, pulled himself to the front with about 6f to run and sluiced up on the bridle.

The difference, one was in a class 3 novice over 2m 4f and one was over 2m in a class 2 contest when he gave a minimum of 5lbs to the field. Taking account of this it would be a fairly plausible theory that he just didn't get home over 2m 4f.

Ice87

Huntley wrote: »

Al Ferof ran against better opposition but he didn't beat them. He finished ahead of Forpadydeplasterer who is rated lower than French Opera. A line through I'm So Lucky has them on similar enough terms, the difference being that Sprinter Sacre did it on the bridle while Al Ferof was all out.

I must also refer to Al Ferof's abysmal top speed rating of 132. He simply isn't quick enough for two miles.



He will be rowing away a long way out just to keep up.

For Al Ferof to win this he would literally need the horses in front to stop to a light canter going up the hill. This isn't the Supreme where he will be running on past immature horses.

It seems that you are trying to convince yourself more than anything else that SS is a sure thing and Al ferof won't be able to touch it. If he's not off the bridle within this race I'll eat my hat.

I hope he turns out to be as good as the hype which surrounds him but I think this track if anything else could be the doing of him.

It doesn't matter what French Opera is rated. Forpaddy ran a great race that day and still finished 6 lengths behind Al Ferof.

If we were to go by the I'm So Lucky form in previous races you would say both horses are fairly equal would you not?

Look at previous races, you could say Sizing Europe had arguably better form leading up to his Arkle victory and he was 6/1 to win it.

Maybe it is a very poor arkle but the odds don't seem to reward the risk at the moment.

mdwexford

Ice87 wrote: »

It seems that you are trying to convince yourself more than anything else that SS is a sure thing and Al ferof won't be able to touch it. If he's not off the bridle within this race I'll eat my hat.

I hope he turns out to be as good as the hype which surrounds him but I think this track if anything else could be the doing of him.

It doesn't matter what French Opera is rated. Forpaddy ran a great race that day and still finished 6 lengths behind Al Ferof.

If we were to go by the I'm So Lucky form in previous races you would say both horses are fairly equal would you not?

Look at previous races, you could say Sizing Europe had arguably better form leading up to his Arkle victory and he was 6/1 to win it.

Maybe it is a very poor arkle but the odds don't seem to reward the risk at the moment.

So much wrong in this post I dont know where to start.

Huntley

Ice87 wrote: »

It seems that you are trying to convince yourself more than anything else that SS is a sure thing and Al ferof won't be able to touch it.

I don't need any convincing at this stage.

All of the following are the facts which I stated;

Huntley wrote: »

Al Ferof ran against better opposition but he didn't beat them. He finished ahead of Forpadydeplasterer who is rated lower than French Opera. A line through I'm So Lucky has them on similar enough terms, the difference being that Sprinter Sacre did it on the bridle while Al Ferof was all out.

I must also refer to Al Ferof's abysmal top speed rating of 132.

From the above facts I derived the following opinion;

Huntley wrote: »

He simply isn't quick enough for two miles.

He will be rowing away a long way out just to keep up.

For Al Ferof to win this he would literally need the horses in front to stop to a light canter going up the hill. This isn't the Supreme where he will be running on past immature horses.

If you disagree with my above angle on Al Ferof then please specify where you think I may have misjudged the horse. I would also be interested to hear your own angle on Al Ferof and where his edge is in this race.

hucklebuck

Ice87 wrote: »

Forpaddy

How do you rate Roi Du Mee? :pac:

RichieLawlor

Huntley wrote: »

This isn't the Supreme where he will be running on past immature horses.

Btw this isnt true. The horses in front were not exactly stopping and he finished like a train past them.

Al Ferof is in the mould of My Way De Solzen, Tidal Bay and Captain Chris, in that stamina isnt a bad thing in an arkle which is ran at a breakneck pace

Ice87

Great contribution MD, your obviously getting sweaty at the thought that there is a possibility that SS could get turned over..:cool:

SS obviously has better attributes this is without doubt. Jumps better and was extremely quick in his last race. Is this enough to make me confident in backing him at 11/10 like a lot of people are doing?

In my opinion the fact that Al Ferof has faced better opposition and competed with them, which will stand to him. Cheltenham form with Ruby on board are all pluses.

He might possibly be rowing away but most horses do in this race.

I'm looking forward to what SS finds anyway.

Huntley

RichieLawlor wrote: »

Btw this isnt true. The horses in front were not exactly stopping and he finished like a train past them.

The three leaders eased away from Al Ferof turning for home and he didn't start to make ground until the incline. I think it was more a case of the three in front slowing rather than Al Ferof finding another gear.

RichieLawlor wrote: »

Al Ferof is in the mould of My Way De Solzen, Tidal Bay and Captain Chris, in that stamina isnt a bad thing in an arkle which is ran at a breakneck pace

The staying theory becomes far less of an issue when there is a genuine two miler in the race. Even if you look at the first five home behind My Way De Solzen, Tidal Bay and Captain Chris the majority wanted 2½+ miles.

mdwexford

RichieLawlor wrote: »

Btw this isnt true. The horses in front were not exactly stopping and he finished like a train past them.

Al Ferof is in the mould of My Way De Solzen, Tidal Bay and Captain Chris, in that stamina isnt a bad thing in an arkle which is ran at a breakneck pace

Three pigs, this guy is a superstar.

Al Ferof faced ok opposition and never looked like winning that race.

If Sprinter Sacre was running against Somersby and Finian's Rainbow tomorrow id expect him to make mincemeat out of them.

hucklebuck

ft9 wrote: »

I just can't wait for the Arkle. I'm hoping he blows them away, not for the money I will win, but for knowing another superstar has arrived.

I hope so too, we need a couple of stunning performances from younger horses, hoping Sprinter Sacre and Midnight Game get the show on the road by bolting in...

mdwexford

We definitely do with Denman retired, Master Minded probably gone, Kauto 12, Sizing Europe and Big Zeb wrong side of 10, even Big Bucks is 9 now.

Need some more superstars to emerge this year.

hucklebuck

Agreed MD, I had to double take there, I started composing very similar and got distracted...

I really don't understand all the money for Al Ferof, Cue Card will finish ahead of him and so will Menorah if he puts in a decent round of jumping.

jimjamcos

Was at a preview night in Dublin City centre tonight. Geraghty was on the panel. Basically said if he sits on him and settles him from the start he wins! Rest of the panel (including Don McClean and Gary O'Brien) then came to the conclusion that there was nothing else to say after that. They all agreed the horse's a winner.

UrbanSea

I was there too jimjam. Thought they seemed a bit naive. They said that if he sat on the horse he won, even the most novice of punters no there is no such thing as a cert

UrbanSea

UrbanSea wrote: »

..........., even the most novice of punters no there is no such thing as a cert

Indeed, I think he has a huge chance, I don't think evens is the wrong price though, the fences much be jumped etc etc.

dave3004

mdwexford wrote: »

Three pigs, this guy is a superstar.

Al Ferof faced ok opposition and never looked like winning that race.

If Sprinter Sacre was running against Somersby and Finian's Rainbow tomorrow id expect him to make mincemeat out of them.

This is a stupid comment. No horse can make mincemeat out of Somersby

mdwexford

dave3004 wrote: »

This is a stupid comment. No horse can make mincemeat out of Somersby

No this is a stupid comment.

He has been made mincemeat out of many times and he certainly would be by the best two miler since the holy trinity.

jimjamcos

UrbanSea wrote: »

I was there too jimjam. Thought they seemed a bit naive. They said that if he sat on the horse he won, even the most novice of punters no there is no such thing as a cert

I agree. Thought that other eejit telling everyone to lump on was worse though! He basically said the same thing about all the big shots too! If only it was that simple... :cool:

leggit

Well I'll be backing Al Ferof with PP and getting my money back if indeed SS can hack up the hill, simple as

dave3004

mdwexford wrote: »

No this is a stupid comment.

He has been made mincemeat out of many times and he certainly would be by the best two miler since the holy trinity.

Has Somersby ever not been placed?

Maybe a handful of times. Rarely/If ever beaten more than a few lengths

Rhinestone Cowboy

The Arkle is one of the worst races at the meeting for favourites. 2002-2011 have finished 21F7723F84. Sprinter win though

UrbanSea

That fella whose name evades me was calling SS a ''certainty'' and said to ''back him, then go up and collect all your money, get all of your savings and put them on Hurricane Fly, he is bombproof''.


I seriously hope there wasn't anyone stupid enough to take him seriously. Silly comments

Panrich

UrbanSea wrote: »

That fella whose name evades me was calling SS a ''certainty'' and said to ''back him, then go up and collect all your money, get all of your savings and put them on Hurricane Fly, he is bombproof''.


I seriously hope there wasn't anyone stupid enough to take him seriously. Silly comments

In fairness, it will be a popular double on the first day. Add in a win for Quevega and the bookies would be reeling.

Slattsy

There will be millions across the board on the SS, HF and Quevega treble on the first day.

UrbanSea

I understand that and I know he would have been saying it in jest, but surely someone naive who is just starting to get into racing would be strongly influenced by that sort of tone.