Possible Cold Reload

blackius

Sorry have had to edit this post many times because boards touch is useless on a phone with quotes

Regarding people knocking posts that call a chance of snow:


That's not what I see people doing here and with the utmost of respect to you,I'll tell you what it is people are ACTUALLY doing

There are 3 post types here on models.
1. Those that perpetually hopecast based on something that might happen and usually doesn't
2.Realists who go on the basis of probability.
3.lurkers who thank posts mostly of type one.


Now there's nothing wrong with type one just as there's nothing wrong with type two.

There's no need for angst aimed at one type of poster or the other.
That said I'm usually type two unless I think there's a realistic chance of the interesting weather happening, usually snow pre April....at which point types one and two kind of merge.

Type three are the learners who sometimes join category one or two.

Currently its true to say the models are showing something better for coldies even the Ecm.
If coldies want crumbs of comfort there it's the fact that in its middle term its not too dissimilar to what we had in-between the November December cold spells and we all know where that high moved and our return to bitter north easterlies.

Joe Public

blackius wrote: »

There are 3 post types here on models.
1. Those that perpetually hopecast based on something that might happen and usually doesn't
2.Realists who go on the basis of probability.
3.lurkers who thank posts mostly of type one.

Re. 2.
Can weather forecasting and realism coexist, I don't think so.
I'd compare it to horse racing where the official weather forecast could be
considered to be the favourite and other versions would have suitable odds applied depending on the credence of the forecaster.

lucernarian

What's happening though is that basically forecasts which don't go for "snow, snow everywhere" are being taken less seriously or ignored in the face of others offering forecasts of more boring weather.

Surely what we want is for the most accurate posts to get the most praise not simply the most bodacious or extreme outcome. And this applies to the depressing "winter is over" posts too!

With the so-called "types of posters", I don't see why it's as good or praiseworthy to make an outlandish forecast as it is a realistic forecast. Isn't the point of all this to enjoy the weather whatever may happen and try to do as good as job as possible in making our own conclusions? With the help of our fellow boardsies of course. The best forecasters are the realistic ones who consider every last detail. So there's no need to knock other people and forecasts but you have to draw a line somewhere.

Apologies for going off topic.

nilhg

Joe Public wrote: »

Re. 2.
Can weather forecasting and realism coexist, I don't think so.
I'd compare it to horse racing where the official weather forecast could be
considered to be the favourite and other versions would have suitable odds applied depending on the credence of the forecaster.

Joe, you're thinking like a punter, you really want to be more like the bookies, they gather all possible information and try to produce realistic odds on various outcomes, it gets very realistic when your money is riding on the results.

On a more general note,

When I post a forecast or chart here I like to have had time to sit down and go through the various models and look at the ensembles to make sure that my thinking is realistic, I don't really see how that could be perceived as negative or positive, the weather will do what the weather will do 10000 posts on here won't change that.

kkontour

With previous talk of the importance of the AO going negative and an approximatly 2 week lead time to see some cold weather after it going negative does this show some promise?
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao_index.html

eskimocat

So the charts are hinting at a possible (short) cold spell and then downgrading just as quickly, but I am wondering about the force of the jet stream at play in these charts, I thought it had weaked lately? Did it rev up again? Can someone post the chart of it at the moment? Can't get to it from this computer. The AO is definitely on the right side of things for a change.

And Blackius, I read your poster types comment in the other thread as a bit tongue in cheek and it gave me a giggle.. No prizes for guessing where I end up!

garyha

Off topic.. yes.. but come on, keep the faith. Won't take too much hopefully to nudge a little more our way.

JanuarySnowstor

Am happy to call Winter over this evening for Ireland

Detail on next week is firming up, cool and dry with a good ol toppler.
I can't remember the last time we didn't have an azores high on the charts. It's been present all Winter in some shape or form and has ruined Winter for us, from a coldie point of view. Indeed it has also given very benign condition with little severe wind or rain.

As a guy in his late 30's I cannot recall such a non descript Winter as this one. C'est la vie!

Birdnuts

JanuarySnowstor wrote: »

Am happy to call Winter over this evening for Ireland

Detail on next week is firming up, cool and dry with a good ol toppler.
I can't remember the last time we didn't have an azores high on the charts. It's been present all Winter in some shape or form and has ruined Winter for us, from a coldie point of view. Indeed it has also given very benign condition with little severe wind or rain.

As a guy in his late 30's I cannot recall such a non descript Winter as this one. C'est la vie!

+1

At this stage my main worry is that late spring/summer will again be the surest thing for a Greenie High, PM air masses and below averge temps etc.:(

PS: If its any consulation the US and most of Canada is experiencing a similiar type of Zzzzzzzzz winter!!;)

up for anything

JanuarySnowstor wrote: »

As a guy in his late 30's I cannot recall such a non descript Winter as this one. C'est la vie!

Would it have been any different if you were a gal in her late 30s?


Does anyone know which is the most reliable site to get the weekend forecast for London on? There's a huge difference in forecasted temps for London between yr.no and Accuweather.

Musicman2000

up for anything wrote: »

Would it have been any different if you were a gal in her late 30s?


Does anyone know which is the most reliable site to get the weekend forecast for London on? There's a huge difference in forecasted temps for London between yr.no and Accuweather.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/

pauldry

here in sligo we have not had a non descript Winter.

We had plenty of storms in December and January(early).

Lots of rain too and even 34mm of rain in the last 2 days!!

And 3 days where it snowed, snow cover at start of December, snowstorm for an hour one day in January and light snow last week for an hour

Rainfall wise its rained pretty much all the days

Sunshine has been below 50% of normal.

Temperature wise its been about 2.5 to 3c ABOVE average.

Quite a remarkable Winter if you ask me,

Jim_Kiy

pauldry wrote: »

here in sligo we have not had a non descript Winter.

We had plenty of storms in December and January(early).

Lots of rain too and even 34mm of rain in the last 2 days!!

And 3 days where it snowed, snow cover at start of December, snowstorm for an hour one day in January and light snow last week for an hour

Rainfall wise its rained pretty much all the days

Sunshine has been below 50% of normal.

Temperature wise its been about 2.5 to 3c ABOVE average.

Quite a remarkable Winter if you ask me,

True most of the winter has being felt in the N/NW.From the rest of our points of view it being a fairly non descript winter..the flood in Oct being the notable event for Dublin.Apart from that sleety shower on one evening you would hardly notice the difference between this winter and last summer.

Su Campu

Jim_Kiy wrote: »

True most of the winter has being felt in the N/NW.From the rest of our points of view it being a fairly non descript winter..the flood in Oct being the notable event for Dublin.Apart from that sleety shower on one evening you would hardly notice the difference between this winter and last summer.

The Dublin flood was October 24th.....

kittyn

Jim_Kiy wrote: »

True most of the winter has being felt in the N/NW.From the rest of our points of view it being a fairly non descript winter..the flood in Oct being the notable event for Dublin.Apart from that sleety shower on one evening you would hardly notice the difference between this winter and last summer.

You mean there has been no difference between Summer, Autumn and Winter ..... It's been like groundhog day for the last seven months zzzzzzzzzzzz

Musicman2000

A horrible forecast by Evelyn after the 9 o clock news, Mild and more Mild, Dull and boring, Sponge bob must be jumping for joy:D

cyclops999

Su gave us that forecast 3 weeks ago.

Gonzo

kittyn wrote: »

You mean there has been no difference between Summer, Autumn and Winter ..... It's been like groundhog day for the last seven months zzzzzzzzzzzz

yup it's horrible, for the past 12 months temperatures during daytime have mostly been in the 10-16C range. Im sure we had days last June and july not much milder than the weather we've been having over the past 2 months.
I dont think ive seen such a bad year in terms of temperature, wind and rain as 2011 and so far 2012 is panning out the same.

Jim_Kiy

good detailed forecast

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hMoCJj5FUW0

derekon

Love the dynamics on the weather boards:

• Darkman2: chance it might snow
• Su Campu: it ain't gonna snow
• Darkman2: models showing possible snow
• Su Campu: the High is just too far east
• Darkman2: I have a good feeling it will snow
• Su Campu: Cannot see any snow for the rest of February

Would have to go along with Su Campu in terms of actual reality of the weather, but love Darkman2's hopecasting !! :D

D

rilz

derekon wrote: »

Love the dynamics on the weather boards:

• Darkman2: chance it might snow
• Su Campu: it ain't gonna snow
• Darkman2: models showing possible snow
• Su Campu: the High is just too far east
• Darkman2: I have a good feeling it will snow
• Su Campu: Cannot see any snow for the rest of February

Would have to go along with Su Campu in terms of actual reality of the weather, but love Darkman2's hopecasting !! :D

D

It bound to snow at least once this winter.

Yahew

There is a large cold pool to your East. Its snowing here in Western England. Chin up.

Wild Bill

hmmmm....this thread open again?

Did something happen that I'm missing? Or is this about another possible cold Summer?

screamer

Winter's gone for this year, we may as well face it, and in some ways, I'm glad. Snow is fun for a day or 2, after that, it's inconvenient. Everything is growing, the birds are busy building nests, onwards to a bright spring and hopefully some sort of decent summer.

TheMilkyPirate

derekon wrote: »

Love the dynamics on the weather boards:

• Darkman2: chance it might snow
• Su Campu: it ain't gonna snow
• Darkman2: models showing possible snow
• Su Campu: the High is just too far east
• Darkman2: I have a good feeling it will snow
• Su Campu: Cannot see any snow for the rest of February

Would have to go along with Su Campu in terms of actual reality of the weather, but love Darkman2's hopecasting !! :D

D

That's a bit unfair, It isn't hopecasting. He calls the models the way he see's them, The same as everyone else here.

Conor30

screamer wrote: »

Winter's gone for this year, we may as well face it, and in some ways, I'm glad. Snow is fun for a day or 2, after that, it's inconvenient. Everything is growing, the birds are busy building nests, onwards to a bright spring and hopefully some sort of decent summer.

I'm inclined to agree. It's starting to get too late for snow. I know it can snow in March, or even April, but the best and most correct time is Dec, Jan or early Feb when ground temps are at their lowest, the sun at its dimmest and when nature hasn't really woken up yet. Spring is beginning to reawaken all around us and it's time to let it in. Looks like the snow boat has already sailed. We have to face the reality that we live in one of the mildest countries in Europe!

desolate sun

Conor30 wrote: »

Spring is beginning to reawaken all around us

Spring has been happening all Winter! My garden was in full bloom all Winter - roses blooming again, pear trees in blossom, daffodils growing since November/December and blooming in January, other Summer flowers not dying back. The grass has also kept growing which is a pain in the bum - usually give it a last cut in late October and that's it done for the Winter.

I asked my Mum (in her sixties) has she ever come across a Winter as freakishly mild as this one and she doesn't recall any in her lifetime. Will this mean we'll have bad harvests with everything flowering so early?
Also I really pity the poor animals who've come out of hibernation early and won't be able to cope if we get Winter weather.

gbee

desolate sun wrote: »

Will this mean we'll have bad harvests with everything flowering so early?

It has been traditionally so, very mild winters here has heralded dreadful summers and early winter storms.

Growth is slow, but there is growth. Germination for crops is not ideal as the soils are damps, I can't cut my bit of lawn.

Gonzo

screamer wrote: »

Winter's gone for this year, we may as well face it, and in some ways, I'm glad. Snow is fun for a day or 2, after that, it's inconvenient. Everything is growing, the birds are busy building nests, onwards to a bright spring and hopefully some sort of decent summer.

Totally agree that winter is finished, some years we get lucky but it's a sad fact that we are so badly positioned that we may have the worst position in the Northern hemisphere for weather. We mostly get the worst of both worlds.... warm winters and cold summers and right now I cant remember the last day I saw a solid blue sky with sunshine, it must be months ago. The past 13 months has put the tin hat on Irish weather for me. Even a few snow showers in a weeks time is not enough to save this abomination of a winter.

howlinwolf

Gonzo wrote: »

Totally agree that winter is finished, some years we get lucky but it's a sad fact that we are so badly positioned that we may have the worst position in the Northern hemisphere for weather. We mostly get the worst of both worlds.... warm winters and cold summers and right now I cant remember the last day I saw a solid blue sky with sunshine, it must be months ago. The past 13 months has put the tin hat on Irish weather for me. Even a few snow showers in a weeks time is not enough to save this abomination of a winter.

agree totally,maybe its time to close this thread after all its goin under the heading possible cold reload and it looks pretty certain there aint gonna be a cold reload in febuary,the atlantic looks to be ramping up over the next week or two. maybe if the models pick up on something after that maybe we could start the hype machine