Cold Spell Prospects and Discussion (January + Early Feb 2012)

weatherfiend

Rebelbrowser wrote: »

As Baraca says, UKMO is very positive. 12z GFS is also much better and further west than 6z GFS. Still nothing certain but tis looking good!

I'm holding my breath here!!

waiting for somebody to say GO, you can get excited. Maybe like somebody mentioned earlier today we need to see the flakes actually falling (blizzarding) before we can breath and laugh!

I must say, with all this positivity, everybody here is in a noticeably jovial mood

BEASTERLY

12z UKMO does not show an easterly for Ireland!

Musicman2000

People the thing this is we are not going to get -10 uppers in a matter of a few days, Its going to take time to get to us, but when it dose it will be worth the wait February is looking good:) as there is serious cold in Europe.

Rebelbrowser

BEASTERLY wrote: »

12z UKMO does not show an easterly for Ireland!

Only goes up to t144 and looks like its trending that way after that (said he through his snow coloured glasses.......)?

seanknowsall

As some of you may know I work at Dublin Airport.... and I can confirm that the word here is that there is no snow expected within the next ten days. Operational meeting this afternoon and someone brought up the potential snowfall and we were all told that the official forecast is for no snow and more mild windy weather next week. I also see Brian Gaze, who is just as expert as MT etc reckons its not going to happen either. Game over guys.....

garyha

seanknowsall wrote: »

Game over guys.....

:rolleyes:

Rebelbrowser

seanknowsall wrote: »

As some of you may know I work at Dublin Airport.... and I can confirm that the word here is that there is no snow expected within the next ten days. Operational meeting this afternoon and someone brought up the potential snowfall and we were all told that the official forecast is for no snow and more mild windy weather next week. I also see Brian Gaze, who is just as expert as MT etc reckons its not going to happen either. Game over guys.....

Absolutely. Forget the ECM and the UKMO. If the the DAA, or any other branch of the civil service, are saying no easterly then it truly is game over.

weatherfiend

seanknowsall wrote: »

As some of you may know I work at Dublin Airport.... and I can confirm that the word here is that there is no snow expected within the next ten days. Operational meeting this afternoon and someone brought up the potential snowfall and we were all told that the official forecast is for no snow and more mild windy weather next week. I also see Brian Gaze, who is just as expert as MT etc reckons its not going to happen either. Game over guys.....

oterra

seanknowsall wrote: »

Game over guys.....

Hasn't even started YET!!!

DOCARCH

garyha wrote: »

:rolleyes:

+1

Even if nothing does happen up to and including 10 days time - that only brings us up to Feb 4th. Still 1/3 of winter to go.

Believe!

Musicman2000

seanknowsall wrote: »

As some of you may know I work at Dublin Airport.... and I can confirm that the word here is that there is no snow expected within the next ten days. Operational meeting this afternoon and someone brought up the potential snowfall and we were all told that the official forecast is for no snow and more mild windy weather next week. I also see Brian Gaze, who is just as expert as MT etc reckons its not going to happen either. Game over guys.....

Sean if you have a look at the UKMO forecasts after the bbc news, you will see how uncertain things are, and have a look at the met eireann update,

Tuesday and Wednesday next will be dry with good sunny spells. Current indications suggest that next week will be very cold with temperatures of just 3 to 6 degrees by day and with sharp or severe frosts at night.

Things are going to get cold, There is no sign is snow yet, but if we get an easterly feed, It could take up to a week to get snow, there is major cold heading west over Europe, So I dont think its wise to say its game over.

munsterlegend

oterra wrote: »

Hasn't even started YET!!!

i think the word 'damn' is missing from Sean's username.

weatherfiend

weatherfiend wrote: »

I must say, with all this positivity, everybody here is in a noticeably jovial mood

think I spoke a mite too soon!!

maiden

seanknowsall wrote: »

As some of you may know I work at Dublin Airport.... and I can confirm that the word here is that there is no snow expected within the next ten days. Operational meeting this afternoon and someone brought up the potential snowfall and we were all told that the official forecast is for no snow and more mild windy weather next week. I also see Brian Gaze, who is just as expert as MT etc reckons its not going to happen either. Game over guys.....

There's always one!

BEASTERLY

Rebelbrowser wrote: »

Only goes up to t144 and looks like its trending that way after that (said he through his snow coloured glasses.......)?

I don't think it's trending that way at all, after 96 hrs everything starts to shift back west including that high.

96 hrs: Close but no cigar. Easterly flow reaches East England. Ireland stuck in no mans land with a slack south westerly flow.


120hrs: High retreats east, flow to the UK turns more SE'erly and slackens. Ireland is all the while left in a south-south westerly flow.


144hrs: Game over. High retreats back even further east at an even faster rate. Both Ireland and the UK in a slack but decidedly south westerly flow. Momentum of things moving east picking up. The type of Easterly flow we would like is actually going into Greece, a world away from what we want.



All that aside, it is just one run, but the GFS seems to have it's colours nailed to mild mast and this mornings ECM was OK but certainly wasn't great. Nearly all the smaller models going for a solution similar to that of the GFS . I would a love good cold Easterly but to be honest I highly doubt we will get one.

I would say 40% chance of a half-arsed 2-day easterly soon replaced by Atlantic driven normality.

30% chance of us getting stuck in no mans land with a slack south-southwesterly flow.

20-25% chance of a cool(but not cold) south easterly-easterly flow.

5-10% of a cold Easterly with any sort of significant snowfall.

BTW, over the top optimism of forum members(some of which i suspect is quite clever trolling...arklow man) does not increase these chances.

maiden

For the lay person like myself, who is a real lurker in this forum but love extreme weather, can ye muse of what could be the::

worst case senario

best case senario

BEASTERLY

maiden wrote: »

For the lay person like myself, who is a real lurker in this forum but love extreme weather, can ye muse of what could be the::

worst case senario

best case senario

Well anything is possible in weather so use your imagination as to best/worst case scenarios. Scenarios which I see as the most likely are outlined in my post above. But other people will have contrasting opinions so have a look at them too. Just keep reading the posts on here, take what everybody has to say with equal credibility and you'll get a nice blend of possible scenarios.

Harps

Agreed with Beasterly, I've yet to see a single model run that delivers anything interesting to our shores. The best scenario's in any sort of a reliable time frame have eastern England in a slack easterly flow with the rest of us in no mans land before the high moves back west

munsterlegend

Harps wrote: »

Agreed with Beasterly, I've yet to see a single model run that delivers anything interesting to our shores. The best scenario's in any sort of a reliable time frame have eastern England in a slack easterly flow with the rest of us in no mans land before the high moves back west

There seems to a lot of uncertainty in uk met office forecast but they are indicating a cold outlook which can only be good for here. It seems like it will take some time for the colder air to reach here if at all. i have a feeling it will though...

TheMilkyPirate

People are missing the point i feel, And with regards to your everything moving east comment beasterly do you honestly think that russian high is going to give up that easy?

Yes the models are only showing a slack easterly feed for SE england, Let's worry about getting that in place first, There is substantial cold out to our east that all the models have moving west. There is great potential at the moment, The best chance we have had of having a cold spell so far this winter.

Just because the models aren't showing -10 uppers and a raging east wind doesn't mean we don't still have the chance to get their.

The UKMET have indicated that whatever scenario out of the two they proposed cold or mild wins out, It will stay here for a while at least into mid feb, We have seen them say this many times now in their outlooks, I'm not bothered linking but if your an avid reader of the forum you will have caught them once or twice.

BEASTERLY

baraca wrote: »

with regards to your everything moving east comment beasterly do you honestly think that russian high is going to give up that easy?

Yes... unfortunately.

Min

Out of interest, this is the warmest January since 1953, anyone know what the weather was like for February and how the charts looked back then?

I forgot to save the link to the old charts, where one could look back.

nilhg

baraca wrote: »

People are missing the point i feel, And with regards to your everything moving east comment beasterly do you honestly think that russian high is going to give up that easy?

Yes the models are only showing a slack easterly feed for SE england, Let's worry about getting that in place first, There is substantial cold out to our east that all the models have moving west. There is great potential at the moment, The best chance we have had of having a cold spell so far this winter.

Just because the models aren't showing -10 uppers and a raging east wind doesn't mean we don't still have the chance to get their.

The UKMET have indicated that whatever scenario out of the two they proposed cold or mild wins out, It will stay here for a while at least into mid feb, We have seen them say this many times now in their outlooks, I'm not bothered linking but if your an avid reader of the forum you will have caught them once or twice.

My experience in a long time lurking and occasional contributing is that the type of potential you are referring to (ie something well out of the ordinary will happen) actually happens is less than 10%.

Not a scientific figure but I'd imagine there won't be too many disagreeing with me.

thomasj

seanknowsall wrote: »

As some of you may know I work at Dublin Airport.... and I can confirm that the word here is that there is no snow expected within the next ten days. Operational meeting this afternoon and someone brought up the potential snowfall and we were all told that the official forecast is for no snow and more mild windy weather next week.

So we can expect disruption........

seanknowsall

Rebelbrowser wrote: »

Absolutely. Forget the ECM and the UKMO. If the the DAA, or any other branch of the civil service, are saying no easterly then it truly is game over.

Eh... where did I say that the DAA said no easterly?? We go by the official forecasts (as mentioned in my post) from Met Eireannn and also the main European agencies... smart arent ya??

Its crazy in here at times... disagree or offer an opinion different to what the sacred few say and you are lambasted and accused of trolling. I am passing on what was discussed at an operations meeting... no freeze for next ten days... just because people dont like that small piece of information doesnt give them the right to start with criticising me etc. I a snow lover too but I not one of these peopel who refuse to accept that Ireland has a temperate climate and where snowy winters are statistically less likely than snowless ones.... and by the way I got a few messages from people in here agreeing with me and saying that they afraid to disagree with people in here because they will get banned etc.... very North Korea..

TheMilkyPirate

BEASTERLY wrote: »

Yes... unfortunately.

Latest fax would say otherwise

BEASTERLY

baraca wrote: »

Latest fax would say otherwise

How does it? t shows that the is there in 3-days time as expected. I'm saying I expect to see the high slip back east in 5-6 days time or so. I'm sorry but i don't get what your saying about that fax chart. Is there something there to suggest it will be a long term feature?

Let's hope the ECM proves me wrong...

TheMilkyPirate

BEASTERLY wrote: »

How does it? t shows that the is there in 3-days time as expected. I'm saying I expect to see the high slip back east in 5-6 days time or so. I'm sorry but i don't get what your saying about that fax chart. Is there something there to suggest it will be a long term feature?

It's trending east, Compared to the 00z fax output it is further east. Not west. What makes you think it will retreat west?

Lucreto

I have given up on any cold spell with any snow for this year. I have been on the rollercoaster for far too long so I am getting off here.

I had my winter gear ready but I have put it back deep into the wardrobe until November.

I really hope Murphy's Law doesn't apply and it starts snowing next week.;)

diceyd

hi guys,iv been reading here for nearly a year and a half(love snow)so i decided to register,this is my first post,i wont be writing here much but love reading what your views on whats going on,im a bit of a weather fanatic,so keep up the great work guys,cheers