Cold Spell Prospects and Discussion (January + Early Feb 2012)

whataboutnow

depressing

Su Campu

Knock Airport (203 m) reported a 1 cm covering of wet snow at 6 am this morning.

DOCARCH

The key phrase in MT's forecast this morning is 'the outlook is truly quite uncertain'.

2cms of snow (now) at Knock AP, according to Evelyn on the radio.

Sponge Bob

Knock had "light snow" in the 7am Su, Recent Hail in Valentia. The rest are fair or rain.

This is the airmass behind the moving 'Greenland Low' that were were expecting hereabouts from the models fully a week back since T1nTin first alerted us........in this very thread even. Well done T1nTin

vickers209

The below from aa roadwatch

Last Updated: 26/01/2012 08:07:08
National Summary Report

*CONDITIONS* Roads are generally wet this morning but wintry conditions are causing some problems. Motorists are urged to reduce their speed and drive with care. *MAYO* Intermittent snow showers in Castlebar, Westport and Ballina. Snow is not sticking to the roads but may affect visibility. However, in Swinford, Gardai tell us that heavy snowfall is sticking to the roads. Particular care is needed on the N5 Longford/Westport Rd Rd. *ROSCOMMON* Reports of snow on the Boyle/Frenchpark Rd (R361) and around Frenchpark on the N5. *LEITRIM* Snow is sticking to the roads around Leitrim Town. *N22/CORK/KERRY* Following recent sleet showers, the N22 Cork/Killarney Rd is a little slippery at the county bounds. *CAVAN* Gardai are reporting very icy conditions on all routes around Bailieboro but particularly on the Kingscourt/Bailieboro Rd (R165). *WICKLOW* Motorists are reporting heavy snowfall in Roundwood. So far, no major problems to report on the N11 Wexford/Dublin Rd.

yorlum11

Su Campu wrote: »

Knock Airport (203 m) reported a 1 cm covering of wet snow at 6 am this morning.

I can confirm heavy wet snow at 5 am this morning.

blackius

DOCARCH wrote: »

The key phrase in MT's forecast this morning is 'the outlook is truly quite uncertain'.

2cms of snow (now) at Knock AP, according to Evelyn on the radio.

Evelyn's forecast this morning was entirely on the ooz ecm.
Ridiculous.
Noaa threw it out..

Patience grasshoppa's.

rhonin

Woke up to snow falling pretty heavy and sticking in Collooney, Sligo. I had to clear it off the car before leaving for work. Great to see it back albeit for a short while

Wild Bill

Sponge Bob wrote: »

a Siberian airmass into Dublin Bay. I will predict that much. :cool:

When, Sponge? When!? :D:D:D

200motels

I'm going to call this, the easterly will not happen, it will keep getting pushed back and back, we'll be stuck in the mild horrible muck for much of Feb, over on Net Weather they are loosing the run of them selves, maybe south east England will see an easterly but it won't last as the mild muck will win out, even the fax charts have backtracked since yesterday.

littlema

delw wrote: »

im sure you know the drill,pics or GTFO

Uh huh

Wild Bill

200motels wrote: »

I'm going to call this, the easterly will not happen, it will keep getting pushed back and back, we'll be stuck in the mild horrible muck for much of Feb, over on Net Weather they are loosing the run of them selves, maybe south east England will see an easterly but it won't last as the mild muck will win out, even the fax charts have backtracked since yesterday.

After following this thread for the past three months (under different cold names) I now fully appreciate why the BBC have stopped issuing long term forecasts and why Met Eireann never committed to beyond 5 days. :cool:

force eleven

I'm not convinced the fetch is strong enough to reach us next week. Always a week away and has been for weeks now. Lets get to T96 timeframe before getting interested. Met Eireann have rowed back from yesterdays colder long range outlook too.:rolleyes:

Vudgie

Some marginally sleety rain in Dublin this morning and a car did pass me that had obviously come from high ground as it had snow on the back window...for a second it felt like winter!

DOCARCH

Vudgie wrote: »

Some marginally sleety rain in Dublin this morning and a car did pass me that had obviously come from high ground as it had snow on the back window...for a second it felt like winter!

Good dusting of snow on the Dublin Mountains this morning from about 200 to 250m up.

pistolpetes11

Wild Bill wrote: »

After following this thread for the past three months (under different cold names) I now fully appreciate why the BBC have stopped issuing long term forecasts and why Met Eireann never committed to beyond 5 days. :cool:

Your completely correct ,

Shows what a hard job even our own Met have , pretty much a thankless task .

ongarboy

Yes, from my 5th floor office in the docklands, I have uninterupted views of the Dublin mountains and can see the top half covered in snow. It's nice to look at as the clouds clear

pistolpetes11

Su Campu wrote: »

For me, I am still against a proper easterly taking place, going on the ECMWF, UKMO and GFS northern hemispherical setup. The ECMWF and UKMO are fairly similar within their respective timeframes, showing fairly zonal conditions over North America slightly amplifying over the next few days, forming a low near Iceland that pumps high geopotential northwards towards the Norwegian Sea. This acts to sustain the Scandinavian high for a brief period, but the supply shuts off fairly quickly and a more zonal setup takes its place, dismantling the Scandi high somewhat.

The GFS is similar to a point but then does what it has a tendency to do - overdoes the amplification over North America, which holds the low pressure further west and allows the warm supply to continue for longer and building the High further west. This both holds its strength and also brings the cold over us. I don't think this will happen as the GFS is known for overdoing cold outbreaks.

As I've been saying, I reckon we will see some brief cold, but will see zonality win out.

At present this is looking like the most likely scenario , once again an excellent analysis

blackius

@ Su campu Yesterday professional bbc forecasters with met qualifications,using analysis from Exeter were pushing the warm front over Ireland back westwards in the face of an easterly influence winning out.
Today they have the front stalling over wales and non committal on what will happen next except for Wales to get heavy snow from the front.

Now thats how uncertain things are at just 48hrs.
Making definitive yeahs or Nay's beyond that is dodgy.
I've made one based on gut feeling no more.I realise I could be wrong.

Why the modeling is crap at the moment is a puzzle but it is a bad reflection on the model programmers in my humble opinion.I suggest they go back to the drawing board as I'm sure their customers must be expressing the view that despite the vagaries of the weather ,random chaos theory etc that it's an unacceptable performance.

That said,they're all we have.I used the analogy elsewhere that the siberian high as it has been looking in model out put lately is like me stretching to change a light bulb in the ceiling in terms of it growing into the "needed" scandi one for a proper easterly.
It can't do it for us without that happening.

Theres so many variations in the model output even beyond 96hrs now,that it's making call's on what will happen lie within 36hrs at the moment.

So patience grasshoppa's. If it doesn't happen it doesn't.
I've a strong gut feeling somethings trying to happen , hence the model flux or the other way round,not sure.

MiNdGaM3

Snow in south Tipp this morning, as confirmed by mother dearest:pac:

weisses

pistolpetes11 wrote: »

Your completely correct ,

Shows what a hard job even our own Met have , pretty much a thankless task .

Yeah i feel sorry for them too ... those poor ...poor ... forecasters

Dealing with not one but two messed up climates (economic and Irish)

Nabber

GFS, UKMO & ECMF all looking relatively the same for the Bay of Biscay feeding us with a south westerly at 96hrs.

Seen a few people quote UK sources, saying an Easterly is on the way. This doesn't mean we (Ireland) will get one

blackius

Just 2 points on the above nabber.
Those aren't fully set in stone ye but maybe 80% likely,I think and secondly they are arguably good charts from a transitional point of view should an Easterly be the way this is going to go because of where those atlantic lows may be forced to go [south]

Nabber

Thanks Blackius.
Past 48hrs the models flip-flop so much, maybe that we are the centre of a battle ground makes it even harder? Just surprising/unfortunate to see all 3 consistent with Ireland receiving a SW flow.

mike65

negative outlook for http://www.positiveweathersolutions.co.uk/

BoardsRanger

Along the Military Rd. Wicklow near to the gated roadway to Kippure. Circa 500m asl. The difference in cloud cover from the first photo to the next was only over the space of a mile.

Rebelbrowser

mike65 wrote: »

negative outlook for http://www.positiveweathersolutions.co.uk/

Which in itself is arguably positive given his track record!

blackius

As weather enthusiasts,like it or lump it,we're always looking for the extremes weather can throw at us.
So we are looking for/wishing for an unusual,quite abnormal climate pattern to visit us.
The odds are always stacked against that otherwise we wouldn't be categorised as the marine type climate we're in [/stating the obvious that!)

That in mind,Mat Hugo has just tweeted the 00z ensemble scenarios and it's shifting away from an easterly

MattHugo81 Matthew Hugo
@fergieweather @DerekTheWeather - By 3rd-5th again 2 scenarios, one keeps the block (23 members) the other 28 bring in the Atlantic.#tricky!
All to play for so based on the above but less likely but a nightmare for forecasters untill theres better confidence whenever that will come...

All 3 of those guys are worth a follow if you have a twitter.

mike65

I'm just following the GFS on wetterzentrale, its hardly put a foot wrong (when within plausible time frame) so far this winter.

cherryghost

mike65 wrote: »

I'm just following the GFS on wetterzentrale, its hardly put a foot wrong (when within plausible time frame) so far this winter.

The irony! It was wrong most of the time for Winter 09 and Winter 10!