Possibly turning much colder next week

TheFairy

Su Campu wrote: »

Treat this thread with a pinch of salt guys.....

Found the above a bit out of line, and I think Su Campu is a mod as well? By all means disagree with the forecast etc but imo this wasnt called for!

Su Campu

TheFairy wrote: »

Found the above a bit out of line, and I think Su Campu is a mod as well? By all means disagree with the forecast etc but imo this wasnt called for!

Not sure what the problem is. It was an intentional pun on salt!

Tom Cruises Left Nut

Su Campu wrote: »

Not sure what the problem is. It was an intentional pun on salt!

Pun fail when you have to point it out

nacho libre

Min wrote: »

The UK met forecast for the next 30 days is a mixture of mild, unsettled weather with cold interludes but nothing extreme.

the question is Min: Did the uk met office update back in early november 2010,which predicted extreme cold for late november 2010, factor in the consequences of the major stratosphere warming that was about to begin back then. With the confidence they displayed I suspect, it must have played apart in their forecast

If that's the case, then they don't obviously think the current warming will have the same pronounced effect on the northern hemisphere pattern this time(at least not not in the right place for us to benefit us)

Also, the ecm 32 dayer makes no mention of any blocking- in the past two winter they flagged the blocking in advance- so it's not looking too good.

Well at least this milder weather means less jobs will be lost in the retail sector. If there had been another big freeze in December it would have meant the end for some of them.
As well as that some people who are in a bad financial situation have one less expensive outlay to worry about.
So I can't complain too much if the weather stays mild

Su Campu

nacho libre wrote: »

the question is Min: Did the uk met office update back in early november 2010,which predicted extreme cold for late november 2010, factor in the consequences of the major stratosphere warming that was about to begin back then. With the confidence they displayed I suspect, it must have played apart in their forecast

If that's the case, then they don't obviously think the current warming will have the same pronounced effect on the northern hemisphere pattern this time(at least not not in the right place for us to benefit us)

Also, the ecm 32 dayer makes no mention of any blocking- in the past two winter they flagged the blocking in advance- so it's not looking too good.

Well at least this milder weather means less jobs will be lost in the retail sector. If there had been another big freeze in December it would have meant the end for some of them.
As well as that some people who are in a bad financial situation have one less expensive outlay to worry about.
So I can't complain too much if the weather stays mild

Good points there nacho. We'll see if they turn out to be true or not. But you're definitely right on the heating bills. Try getting through winter with an Italian wife who's even cold in June! :rolleyes:

Ronan H

delw wrote: »

not by met eireann there wasn't,were did you get the weather warning from?

I'm trying to find it. I'm sure there was a press conference type thing on the rte news with Gerald Fleming there and a big placard behind them with some sort of a "be prepared" slogan on it. I will try and root it out...

derekon

Head wrote: »

I'm trying to find it. I'm sure there was a press conference type thing on the rte news with Gerald Fleming there and a big placard behind them with some sort of a "be prepared" slogan on it. I will try and root it out...

Don't bother wasting your time.

The campaign was about winter - check out www.winterready.ie

It was based on a POSSIBLE severe cold snap which has, alas, not materialised. Murphy's Law.

In fairness to Gerald Fleming, he did say at the press conference that there was no sign of any severe cold on the horizon. He has proved to be correct :mad:

D

Su Campu

Head wrote: »

I'm trying to find it. I'm sure there was a press conference type thing on the rte news with Gerald Fleming there and a big placard behind them with some sort of a "be prepared" slogan on it. I will try and root it out...

They were launching the "Be Winter-ready" website. There was certainly no forecast of a harsh winter by them. You're thinking of the chancers like Corbyn, Madden, etc.

http://www.winterready.ie/

Ronan H

Yeah that's the one. I searched for a half hour and never came across that website. I'm gonna blame them an their dodgy meta tag programing...

As for the weather, I can't blame them for that, my misinterpretation!

rainbowdash

Su Campu wrote: »

They were launching the "Be Winter-ready" website. There was certainly no forecast of a harsh winter by them. You're thinking of the chancers like Corbyn, Madden, etc.

http://www.winterready.ie/

Looks like another quango????

Anyways the BBC countryfile forecast just now showed lovely orange / yellow over Uk / Eire for the next few days then forecast different shades of blue over UK / Eire from about New years day onwards. IE Mild giving way to cold. FWIW.

johngalway

Min wrote: »

Farmers though are excited by weather that isn't too extreme.

I want my milk collected so I am not a fan of snow or ice as it could be costly, or floods or drought for field conditions in the spring/summer/autumn period.

I don't want storms to blow down the sheds either.

But I love the weather and we have to take what we get, as Joe Bastardi says, it is the only weather you got.

Hm, there's an amount of truth to what you say Min... But

As a sheep farmer myself I was talking to another and we both agreed the snow would be better than the god awful hail/sleet/non stop rain we're getting in this part of the country.

Su Campu

Guys please keep on topic. I'm deleting irrelevant posts now and will continue to do so. There's no fun for people trying to follow this and other threads when the same people continue to post irrelevant bullshît.

darkman2

UKMO pretty good, not perfect but colder none the less with squally wintry showers



Slight interruption followed by more of the same




Watch for the pressure rise to the north. That will be very important beyond this forecast period.


In terms of the stratospheric warming we have a good idea of where it will propagate to the surface and that will split the polar vortex and force it south on several sides. Massive ejections of cold air from the poles should be expected. (we may not end up on the right side but we need this to happen for prolonged cold in any case)

BEASTERLY

No offense but I get the impression you're just clutching at straws!

darkman2 wrote: »

UKMO pretty good, not perfect but colder none the less with squally wintry showers

Seriously, pretty good? Maybe my sarcasm detector is broken but low heights to our north, high to our south. Raging zonality, yes maybe the odd brief 36-hour 'cold' spells where only mountains in Donegal over 400m get a 2 or 3cm dusting. The same sh1te we've had since November. Yes that massive russian high is moving north but all that's doin is takin any cold air out of eastern europe and Russia by bringing in southerlies, disastrous for us if we want an Easterly later on.

Watch for the pressure rise to the north. That will be very important beyond this forecast period.


In terms of the stratospheric warming we have a good idea of where it will propagate to the surface and that will split the polar vortex and force it south on several sides. Massive ejections of cold air from the poles should be expected. (we may not end up on the right side but we need this to happen for prolonged cold in any case)

Watch for pressure rises? Surely you mean, we would love to see pressure rises to the north! What reason do you have to believe they will coming soon?

And I have to stop you on the stratospheric warming. Where are getting the idea that the vortex will split and there will be ''Massive ejections of cold air from the poles''. Of course this could happen, but not this time im afraid, that vortex is far to strong and this warming is only going to serve to move the vortex a small bit. A slight weakening of the vortex will happen I'm sure, but nothing of any significance to us. Please if you're going to make a forecast based on stratospheric warming, at least research it a bit instead of assuming a wrong connection that strat warming=height rises at 60-70 degrees north. The connection between the two is very loose, and ultimately unproven as it is only a recent idea.

And what do you mean by ''we have a good idea of where it will propagate to the surface and that will split the polar vortex'', I'm sure by this you mean you saw an amateur on another forum who doesn't really know what he's on about says it will. And because it gives the likes of you and me hope you take it as gospel and absolute rock solid forecast. Trust me, been there done that, have the t-shirt(and a jar containing the shards of my shattered hopes!)

Su Campu

Let it go darkman, there is still no sign of any notable cold in the forseeable future. The "wintry showers" will be on high ground only.

I agree with beasterly's comments above. Instead of showing benign UKMO charts showing basically just a less mild northwesterly, you should post evidence of where the strat warming will translate to the surface, cos I haven't found any evidence of that yet (i.e. as of last night). Your whole paragraph on that seems nothing more than pure wishcasting, without any evidence.

This thread is referring just to next week. If people want to post about after that then there are two threads already opened on it.

Deep Easterly

BEASTERLY wrote: »

The same sh1te we've had since November. all bloody year.

Fixed thy post

BEASTERLY

Deep Easterly wrote: »

Fixed thy post

Didn't matter too much any other time tho! All I want is snow!!!

derekon

Might be time to lock this thread?

No sign of any decent cold next week.

D

darkman2

Fairly happy with the forecast for next week I have to say. And it is still evolving. The ECM is coming out so let's see what that shows.

derekon

darkman2 wrote: »

Fairly happy with the forecast for next week I have to say. And it is still evolving. The ECM is coming out so let's see what that shows.

Ah Darkman2, you are on the boards this evening!

I had asked you a question yesterday but did not get an answer so will ask again!

Given that most people know that you are a notorious cold ramper, are your forecasts based on good scientific evidence or are they Hopecasts? Discuss :D:D

D

ninebeanrows

darkman2 wrote: »

Fairly happy with the forecast for next week I have to say. And it is still evolving. The ECM is coming out so let's see what that shows.

stop digging!:D

There appears there will be 18 hours with 850hpa temps below -5c on a brisk westerly wind.

Is this the cold spell!?

BEASTERLY

Weathercheck wrote: »

stop digging!:D

There appears there will be 18 hours with 850hpa temps below -5c on a brisk westerly wind.

Is this the cold spell!?

Yes, prepare yourself, family and friends for this savage weather event. Can't believe it's not on the news! I would advise anybody to go and stock up ON supplies NOW!!!! It will be too late by tomorrow, I can just picture the mayhem now!!

Good call by DM2 to have a yellow triangle on this thread, they should be used abundantly now. Not doing so could, emphasising could(because at the end of the day nothings impossible), result in DEATH!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!



EDIT: Just seen DM2 has removed the said triangle. Please, for the sake of the nation, put it back!!!!!

Birdnuts

ECM is rather grim - persistant HP to our South is really killing us:(

Iancar29

:rolleyes:

Musicman2000

BEASTERLY wrote: »

Yes, prepare yourself, family and friends for this savage weather event. Can't believe it's not on the news! I would advise anybody to go and stock up ON supplies NOW!!!! It will be too late by tomorrow, I can just picture the mayhem now!!

Good call by DM2 to have a yellow triangle on this thread, they should be used abundantly now. Not doing so could, emphasising could(because at the end of the day nothings impossible), result in DEATH!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!



EDIT: Just seen DM2 has removed the said triangle. Please, for the sake of the nation, put it back!!!!!

I think Beasterly is having snow withdrawal symptoms:D

Gonzo

I think if we see a continuation of these charts in 3 weeks time then I think it will be time to start getting very worried about how this winter is turning out. Here's to hoping something more long-term and easterly will appear on the horizon soon.

sunbabe08

SERIOUSLY, in need of snow, i saw snow on the mountains around killarney yesterday and wanted to climb up there :eek: i need snow. this warmth is driving me up the wall

darkman2

I will reply in a little bit to all questions. Don't have the time now. Some people seem confused.

Iancar29

sunbabe08 wrote: »

SERIOUSLY, in need of snow, i saw snow on the mountains around killarney yesterday and wanted to climb up there :eek: i need snow. this warmth is driving me up the wall

Meet ya at in Killarney town at 12pm sharp 2moro!!!!!

:rolleyes:

derekon

Gonzo wrote: »

I think if we see a continuation of these charts in 3 weeks time then I think it will be time to start getting very worried about how this winter is turning out. Here's to hoping something more long-term and easterly will appear on the horizon soon.

I agree 100% - if there is no change to this mobile Atlantic muck in 3 weeks time, the window of opportunity for snow and a decent cold spell will be closing in on us. At the moment I feel that this winter will be mild with no snow - think about it, there was no snow from the 1st January 2011 onwards. I feel at the moment, 2012 will be the same. Snowless. :mad:

D