Possibly turning much colder next week

darkman2

From Sunday a polar maritime bias in the flow of weather is expected and this means frost and ice. Temperatures are likely to struggle around or below freezing at night and be very limited to low single figures by day which means frost and ice may be persistent through daylight hours. Showers, increasingly wintry, will also affect the country. This could be the start of a very prolonged cold spell of weather with snow increasingly likely. I will post in more detail with charts later today.

Jimmy Garlic

I won't dust off the snow shovel just yet.

plein de force

I hope you're right

Birdnuts

It could only get colder - the last few days have been so mild I could have BBq'd the Turkey out the back:rolleyes:

leahyl

Ah Darkman2 returns! :-D

DOCARCH

I do like a good DM2 thread!

Speak Now

I suppose much colder compared to last few days might be right
Nothing frigid on the horizon though.......

Dinkleman

He is back! Prob won't be cold at all!!!!!!!!!

Jimmy Garlic

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HwxdPKFhZgE

Sponge Bob

GFS showing a permahigh setup over Ireland for the 2 weeks from this weekend and no polar nuthin. I await Darkmans promised land charts !!!!

WalterMitty

get the ski ramp out.

Jimmy Garlic

WalterMitty wrote: »

get the ski ramp out.

derekon

darkman2 wrote: »

From Sunday a polar maritime bias in the flow of weather is expected and this means frost and ice. Temperatures are likely to struggle around or below freezing at night and be very limited to low single figures by day which means frost and ice may be persistent through daylight hours. Showers, increasingly wintry, will also affect the country. This could be the start of a very prolonged cold spell of weather with snow increasingly likely. I will post in more detail with charts later today.

As with most of DM2's post about cold, a major health warning should be attached - emphasis on the word "could" noted. Looking at the 6am run of the GFS, there is no major cold forecast for Ireland right up to the 9th Jan 2012. Sorry to disappoint any cold lovers

D

mike65

ha! If anything can be predicted in for foreseeable future its that the high pressure area that's been centred around Biscay will not be moved one way or the other.

Jimmy Garlic

mike65 wrote: »

ha! If anything can be predicted in for foreseeable future its that the high pressure area that's been centred around Biscay will not be moved one way or the other.

No snow so?. can we expect rain?. I have some livestock out in the paddock that I might want to retrieve before Armageddon.

Dilynnio

Finally...............my evening snow dance is starting to work!

BRING IT ON!

Deep Easterly

ECMWF chart for next Monday:



interesting looking trough east of Newfoundland.

derekon

Deep Easterly wrote: »

ECMWF chart for next Monday:



interesting looking trough east of Newfoundland.

Interesting looking trough indeed DE - if only we could nudge it slightly west so it sits just under Greenland and starts to build, we could be in for some decent action!

Simply put folks, we need the raging Atlantic with its west to east motion to stop If this pattern continues, we will get no easterlies and it will be game over - I am not very keen on cold north westerlies, which lets be honest, only deliver to the west and north of Ireland and even then its not the powder snow like we got in the East last year, its just wet Atlantic sleet/snow that does not tend to stick around. THE ATLANTIC JUST DOES NOT DELIVER SNOW-WISE.

However it is only the 27th December and I am willing to put my faith in MT's forecast of some decent cold from mid Jan onwards. Hopefully the models will start showing up some decent cold from around the 5th/6th Jan onwards - as this is a good 10 days we will have to agree with MT, patience is required!

D

derekon

Hi Deep Easterly,

Just had a glance at the North Atlantic Pressure Chart and that high you point out does not appear at all and is instead replaced with a deep Low! :mad:

It would appear on these charts at least, that mild westerlies will continue to dominate right up to the 2nd January 2012.

The attached link will bring you to the NA Pressure Chart and you can run the sequence forward to see Highs and Lows out in the Atlantic.

D

http://magicseaweed.com/msw-surf-charts2.php?chart=2&res=500&type=pressure&starttime=1324890000

Su Campu

Treat this thread with a pinch of salt guys. There are some hints that the overall global pattern is heading from its current progressive to a more stationary or even retrogressive setup in the next 10 days, although the GFS has no such intentions. It is usually very keen to big up northerly outbreaks but it has a continuance of the zonal muck for the foreseeable. We need a polar maritime à la Greenland Express for anything decent to occur, so don't be going mad over this thread just yet. It really shuold be in the Fantasy Island at this stage.

Deep Easterly

derekon wrote: »

Just had a glance at the North Atlantic Pressure Chart and that high you point out does not appear at all and is instead replaced with a deep Low! :mad:

It would appear on these charts at least, that mild westerlies will continue to dominate right up to the 2nd January 2012.


http://magicseaweed.com/msw-surf-charts2.php?chart=2&res=500&type=pressure&starttime=1324890000

I focused in on the trough east of Newfoundland D, which is not a high, and I agree with you that there looks to be a continuation of these insipid (if not necessarily mild all the time) westerlies for the foreseeable.

The tough showing up on this morning's ECMWF is of more interest to me, as it is in prime position to feed up some moist, warm air into the cooler polar air mass to the north:

Crap interpretation of what I mean:



I wasn't referring to potential cold, but more my hopes for potential cyclogenesis to flare up over the north Atlatntic for next week, but this is based on a chart in FI, and a FI chart that shows a vital, much needed upper trough too far west over northern Canada to help spur things on. In desperate times one must resort to desperate hope casting.

C'mon Atlantic, start kickin' some ass!! :mad:

derekon

Deep Easterly wrote: »

I focused in on the trough east of Newfoundland D, which is not a high, and I agree with you that there looks to be a continuation of these insipid (if not necessarily mild all the time) westerlies for the foreseeable.

The tough showing up on this morning's ECMWF is of more interest to me, as it is in prime position to feed up some moist, warm air into the cooler polar air mass to the north:

Crap interpretation of what I mean:



I wasn't referring to potential cold, but more my hopes for potential cyclogenesis to flare up over the north Atlatntic for next week, but this is based on a chart in FI, and a FI chart that shows a vital, much needed upper trough too far west over northern Canada to help spur things on. In desperate times one must resort to desperate hope casting.

C'mon Atlantic, start kickin' some ass!! :mad:

Cheers for the clarification, DE - I misread the trough as a high! I am hoping that as we head into early January, the charts will start to show up some serious cold

D

Su Campu

ECMWF ensemble for 10 days' time, showing a continuance of the westerlies. The low moves eastwards into the North Sea and northern Europe, but if there were a northerly dragged down behind it it would be shortlived. The troughs over northern Baffin Bay and Scandinavia are not what we want to be seeing for height rises to the north. From this chart it looks locked in for a while yet.

snaps

I know it would be nice to get some cold, settled crisp weather, anything is better than this real damp miserable grey muck that we are currently getting. But my concern is already focused on January and what it will pile onto me financially. Luckily with this milder mucky weather, i've reduced the central heating usage by over 50%, As there is no way i can afford to buy more oil in January.

Shame i don't have a wind generator, I would be laughing now!!

Su Campu

Yes, that's the upside of mild weather.

I cannot understand why every forecaster (and I use the term lightly in some cases) is always trying to get in some prospects of cold in the future, no matter what the signs are. It's as if people hate to hear anything else and won't read further if cold's not in there. Winter forecasts have now become hunts for cold spells like the last two years, and rarely give any credence to the idea that we might get something less cold, i.e. more normal milder westerlies. The likes of Vogan, Corbyn, Madden, as well as many people on here, will clutch at anything that will put the cold vibe out there, and hence bring a feel good factor into the discussion.

I have yet to read a winter forecast that doesn't play to the coldlovers.

cml387

Su Campu wrote: »

Yes, that's the upside of mild weather.

I cannot understand why every forecaster (and I use the term lightly in some cases) is always trying to get in some prospects of cold in the future, no matter what the signs are. It's as if people hate to hear anything else and won't read further if cold's not in there. Winter forecasts have now become hunts for cold spells like the last two years, and rarely give any credence to the idea that we might get something less cold, i.e. more normal milder westerlies. The likes of Vogan, Corbyn, Madden, as well as many people on here, will clutch at anything that will put the cold vibe out there, and hence bring a feel good factor into the discussion.

I have yet to read a winter forecast that doesn't play to the coldlovers.

Well said.
I find this forum useful for an idea of weather on a longer term basis than we get from ME and I fully understand that there is a large element of speculation.
But the snow fan-boys who seem to latch on to a single run are beginning to be something of a joke.

darkman2

12 GFS and UKMO are out for the important day 4. They show Ireland in a polar maritime flow but it's at risk of disruption by a deepening trough to the Southwest.







The 00z ECMWF maintains the polar maritime flow throughout and limits disruption of the flow allowing very cold air in the North Atlantic to get very close to and eventually over the country by Monday.


The key difference between the models right now appears to be the profile of the jet stream. Trough disruption may occur on the 12z GFS but a slight weakening of this streak across the Atlantic and slightly further South would see it much closer to the ECM for next week.




Best to wait for the 12z ECM and then see in more detail exactly what the situation is between the models. For the moment the GFS and UKMO are heading in the right direction for a colder outcome and less trough disruption.


GFS and UKMO @ 120hrs (Sunday).

GFS



UKMO




P.S I edited the thread title. It's not nailed on yet but is a good possibility.

blackius

It's the wrong air source for true snowy cold darkman2.
Too much of a long Atlantic sea track making for sleety muck in populated coastal urban areas of the west.
Showers in flows like that would be weak/dying out past the midlands
so nothing to get too excited about (yet) folks even if it does pan out.

Mid Atlantic highs,Greenland highs or a super Scandinavian high are the better show in town.

That said,those may evolve after we go through the sleety northwesterly set up you're describing first.
It's often a stepping stone synoptically to what we really want as cold snow fans and that is something similar to Dec 10 or January 10.
I'm hopeful in the MT camp still on that one,that something proper cold will have bedded in by mid to late January or by mid February at the latest.
We'll see

Stacey.

Hopefully it gets colder soon, it's supposed to be winter >_>

ninebeanrows

Abit of exaggeration here!

We look faced with a prediomately above average zonal flow for the next 7-10 days with what appears like more mild maritime influence than cool maritime?

WolfeIRE

It's looking like a repeat of the mild,cold,mild,cold zonal setup of the first 3 weeks of December for the first 10 days or more of January.

Sponge Bob

Spot of Graupel, maybe two spots of graupel. It has a distinctly average look to it given the time of year. By friday week the Azores High could even have a hole to snuggle warmly into.

darkman2

Weathercheck wrote: »

Abit of exaggeration here!

We look faced with a prediomately above average zonal flow for the next 7-10 days with what appears like more mild maritime influence than cool maritime?

Looks like increasingly mostly cold polar maritime airmass from Monday according to the Euro models to me. The North American models have a milder maritime flow tilted more Southwest - Northeast with deeper trough disruption.

I still think next week is going to feel very different to this week with frost more widespread and ice at times as well as more wintry showers as the week goes on.

Sponge Bob

OK, shall we all revisit this on Sunday after the New Years Weekend Record All Christmas Day Temperature Heatwave reprises itself then ????

Su Campu

darkman2 wrote: »

Looks like increasingly mostly cold polar maritime airmass from Monday according to the Euro models to me. The North American models have a milder maritime flow tilted more Southwest - Northeast with deeper trough disruption.

I still think next week is going to feel very different to this week with frost more widespread and ice at times as well as more wintry showers as the week goes on.

Nothing you have shown in the charts above is anywhere near cold potential. I really don't see why the thread was started as it's looking like more of the same, just without this week's above normal temperatures. Nothing of note for the start of January, just the chance of some sleety showers on high ground at times and cooler nights.

Sponge Bob

I beg your kindest indulgence in keeping this thread open until at least Thursday Su Campu. It isn't quite like that chart free graupel ghoulery thread you closed (only yesterday was it???).

derekon

blackius wrote: »

It's the wrong air source for true snowy cold darkman2.
Too much of a long Atlantic sea track making for sleety muck in populated coastal urban areas of the west.
Showers in flows like that would be weak/dying out past the midlands
so nothing to get too excited about (yet) folks even if it does pan out.

Mid Atlantic highs,Greenland highs or a super Scandinavian high are the better show in town.

That said,those may evolve after we go through the sleety northwesterly set up you're describing first.
It's often a stepping stone synoptically to what we really want as cold snow fans and that is something similar to Dec 10 or January 10.
I'm hopeful in the MT camp still on that one,that something proper cold will have bedded in by mid to late January or by mid February at the latest.
We'll see

I could not have said it better myself In terms of decent cold / snowfall, the north westerlies are not worth a f**k

Darkman2, you would be advised to read the above quoted post as it makes sense.

Now on the other hand Darkman2, if you were posting about a Scandi high which would bring strong winds in off a very cold continent, you might be onto something. But you are not saying this, you are basically stating that we are in for more of what happened in December, which on the East Coast was nought!

D

Su Campu

Sponge Bob wrote: »

I beg your kindest indulgence in keeping this thread open until at least Thursday Su Campu. It isn't quite like that chart free graupel ghoulery thread you closed (only yesterday was it???).

It wasn't I who closed it but it was yet another one that should have been in FI. I really don't see why this one should be let run but there's feck all else happening I suppose.

Sponge Bob

Su Campu wrote: »

I really don't see why this one should be let run but there's feck all else happening I suppose.

Amuse yourself by banning all the snow bunnies who encouraged him until the 31st of March and thereby making the forum a safer place O Mighty One!

davidsr20

Su Campu wrote: »

It wasn't I who closed it but it was yet another one that should have been in FI. I really don't see why this one should be let run but there's feck all else happening I suppose.

Dark man and MT were spot on last year so if there going with our winter to start mid jan I'm happy with that!

Do u not believe this will happin from mid January on su camp?????:rolleyes:

darkman2

Su Campu wrote: »

Nothing you have shown in the charts above is anywhere near cold potential. I really don't see why the thread was started as it's looking like more of the same, just without this week's above normal temperatures. Nothing of note for the start of January, just the chance of some sleety showers on high ground at times and cooler nights.

It is not "more of the same". This issue comes up time and time again. Your difficulty is you are taking the charts post 120hrs at face value. I am not. The potential is there for a much colder period of weather in contrast to last week from next Monday. It does seem likely the first half of the week will see some irritating trough disruption of the flow for those who want persistent cold weather so we will see frosty nights and after rainfall icy patches and some wintry showers. We have not seen that for some time. That's the first change.

The second is far more significant and has consistently been flagged on the operational ECM runs over the past two days and that is the pulverisation and seperation of the polar vortex at the polar latitudes. This marks a really significant change in pattern for us if this is how things pan out.

Here is the pv today



Very flat. Zonal. Almost the worst possible setup for winter. No amplification of the jet stream and no significant blocking.


Here is the pv by the end of next week split.



Complete disruption and amplification of the pattern. The result is massive ejection of cold air south on the 4 sides the vortex remains. Blocking at polar latitudes and height increases mean terrific potential at that stage.




Of course that may change. But the signs are very good. Next week may get off to a colder if somewhat boring start, I agree. But my thoughts are it is only the start of a colder period overall. All I am suggesting is watch this space.


*edit: also to say and I refer to redsunset's stratospheric temperature thread. I wonder is this the first signal of the propagation of the recent stratospheric warming event to the surface layers of the atmosphere.

M.T. Cranium

In all fairness, the ECM charts are encouraging for cold, and if that's to be the set-up by 6 Jan then look out because high-energy events occur between then and 9 Jan which would have to be some form of arctic frontal waves or polar lows in that pattern. Granted the GFS is stuck on drab zonality right through FI, so we have a fork in the road about 2-3 Jan.

The ECM charts would suggest daytime temperatures of about 2-4 C by end of period, cold enough for mixed wintry showers in warmer locations and all snow on hills. But I think much colder weather is probably going to require a stronger gradient and some hint of an easterly component, that might be more like 2-3 weeks out at present.

Su Campu

darkman2 wrote: »

It is not "more of the same". This issue comes up time and time again. Your difficulty is you are taking the charts post 120hrs at face value. I am not. The potential is there for a much colder period of weather in contrast to last week from next Monday. It does seem likely the first half of the week will see some irritating trough disruption of the flow for those who want persistent cold weather so we will see frosty nights and after rainfall icy patches and some wintry showers. We have not seen that for some time. That's the first change.

I'm not looking at the charts, I just posted them to illustrate. The setup shows no signs of blocking, and the one you posted for the 6th shows a progressive pattern, with the high to the west building back in again. Of course it's going to be colder than last week as last week was almost record-breaking.

The second is far more significant and has consistently been flagged on the operational ECM runs over the past two days and that is the pulverisation and seperation of the polar vortex at the polar latitudes. This marks a really significant change in pattern for us if this is how things pan out.

Here is the pv today



Very flat. Zonal. Almost the worst possible setup for winter. No amplification of the jet stream and no significant blocking.


Here is the pv by the end of next week split.

Complete disruption and amplification of the pattern. The result is massive ejection of cold air south on the 4 sides the vortex remains. Blocking at polar latitudes and height increases mean terrific potential at that stage.

Of course that may change. But the signs are very good. Next week may get off to a colder if somewhat boring start, I agree. But my thoughts are it is only the start of a colder period overall. All I am suggesting is watch this space.

Which is why this should be all in the FI thread. It only refers to next week.

darkman2

Su Campu wrote: »

I'm not looking at the charts, I just posted them to illustrate. The setup shows no signs of blocking, and the one you posted for the 6th shows a progressive pattern, with the high to the west building back in again. Of course it's going to be colder than last week as last week was almost record-breaking.

Which setup? I am trying to break next week in two to show you what I mean. If you are talking about Monday to Wednesday you are correct. We are relying on the so called "Greenland express". If, however, you mean the second half of next week I would not agree with that I have to say. Suppose the pv splits as forecast there is a very high likelyhood of some blocking emerging - now whether or not it is in the right place is a moot point really as it is too far out. The fact the pv may spilt can only possibly be good. That's defacto height rises in polar regions.

Which is why this should be all in the FI thread. It only refers to next week.

It's only about next week (Monday - Sunday). I have not mentioned anything beyond next Friday.

darkman2

blackius wrote: »

Mid Atlantic highs,Greenland highs or a super Scandinavian high are the better show in town.


We'll see

You may not be waiting too much longer;)


As for not "real" cold. -5c at 850hpa level is -5c whether it comes from Siberia or the North Atlantic. You just want the "beast from the east" because, well, you live in the east;)

Su Campu

darkman2 wrote: »

Which setup? I am trying to break next week in two to show you what I mean. If you are talking about Monday to Wednesday you are correct. We are relying on the so called "Greenland express". If, however, you mean the second half of next week I would not agree with that I have to say. Suppose the pv splits as forecast there is a very high likelyhood of some blocking emerging - now whether or not it is in the right place is a moot point really as it is too far out. The fact the pv may spilt can only possibly be good. That's defacto height rises in polar regions.

It's only about next week (Monday - Sunday). I have not mentioned anything beyond next Friday.

We'll see how this one plays out. For me we're not seeing anything worth getting excited over for the next 3 weeks, as MT has said.

darkman2

Sponge Bob wrote: »

Amuse yourself by banning all the snow bunnies who encouraged him until the 31st of March and thereby making the forum a safer place O Mighty One!

Su Campu

darkman2 wrote: »

You may not be waiting too much longer;)


As for not "real" cold. -5c at 850hpa level is -5c whether it comes from Siberia or the North Atlantic. You just want the "beast from the east" because, well, you live in the east;)

-5 at 850 is no good in a polar maritime, except maybe where we have a gale blowing straight from Iceland.

darkman2

Su Campu wrote: »

We'll see how this one plays out. For me we're not seeing anything worth getting excited over for the next 3 weeks, as MT has said.

Fair enough. I am not saying a, b or c will happen. And I am taking a bit of a risk but i'm fairly upbeat with what I see. And, as you said yourself, there has not been much to be upbeat about recently so why not? It keeps people interested if nothing else. I am optimistic for next week particularly later in the week.

Su Campu

darkman2 wrote: »

Fair enough. I am not saying a, b or c will happen. And I am taking a bit of a risk but i'm fairly upbeat with what I see. And, as you said yourself, there has not been much to be upbeat about recently so why not? It keeps people interested if nothing else. I am optimistic for next week particularly later in the week.

I agree, we needs what can gets!

nacho libre

derekon wrote: »

I could not have said it better myself In terms of decent cold / snowfall, the north westerlies are not worth a f**k


D

Derek, perhaps you meant to say north westerlies are not worth a **** for the east coast;) because north westerlies can in fact deliver decent snow fall to the west and northwest, especially in February.