Tuesday - Friday windstorms & snow - REPORTS AND CHAT THREAD

Su Campu

Please use this thread for all reports and general chit chat relating to this week's storms, and the other we will use just for for forecast discussion, updates, etc.

Thanks

PS Remember, no personal abuse!

whiteandlight

Great idea thanks so much

irish1967

Well at least the build up gave me the kick in the ass I needed to go tidy the garden. Nothing left to blow about if things go bombastic ! Oh apart from 2 very large 100 year old chestnut trees !

fizzycyst

Can anyone tell me why there's the possibility of snow across the country this week? As far as I can see the temp at 850hPa is only -4 at most. I thought one of the many conditions we needed for snow was -8 temps at 850hPa.

Edit : scratch that, MT just answered my question in the other thread

Su Campu

fizzycyst wrote: »

Can anyone tell me why there's the possibility of snow across the country this week? As far as I can see the temp at 850hPa is only -4 at most. I thought one of the many conditions we needed for snow was -8 temps at 850hPa.

I don't think there is much chance of snow, apart from higher ground. MT thinks likewise, and has posted his breakdown in the other thread.

fizzycyst

Su Campu wrote: »

I don't think there is much chance of snow, apart from higher ground. MT thinks likewise, and has posted his breakdown in the other thread.

Snap

irish1967

Well it seems thurs/fri is a no go now. Was fun while it lasted. If it is infact gone as latest charts are predicting I don't think anyone thought it would vanish so quickly. I thought it would decline over a few days.

Winger_PL

Pangea

irish1967 wrote: »

Well it seems thurs/fri is a no go now. Was fun while it lasted. If it is infact gone as latest charts are predicting I don't think anyone thought it would vanish so quickly. I thought it would decline over a few days.

Really? Wasn't it just one run?
It could easily come back as quick as it went.
Heres me hoping.

M.T. Cranium

The thing that is changing the most is that Wednesday, the sort of forgotten day in all this discussion, is now looking the most active of all. And I certainly wouldn't want to close the door on eventual development of something severe on Thursday night, models that downgrade at 72-96h have been known to upgrade back again at 48-60h. It is very much wait and see on the final chapter this week, but there will be lots of weather to report in the next three days. Glad to see this division of threads, I won't post in here like this again, but just wanted to comment on what had been said already.

irish1967

Thanks for popping in there MT. Would have the kettle boiled if I knew ye were visiting ( chocolate biscuits.... hmmmm maybe).

Yeah Pangea, the word 'if' was the biggie in my comment. Guess we'll know better in the morning.

delw

folks like Iancar said earlier, storm Carmen went missing 72 hours or so out,he still chased a strong storm in the end

sunbabe08

i left to watch x-factor and come back and no storm. what happened?:eek:

delw

sunbabe08 wrote: »

i left to watch x-factor and come back and no storm. what happened?:eek:

you should of stayed here :rolleyes:

irish1967

ME will be waiting for the morning run to update I bet.

Vain

What ever about the storm, had a shower of big hailstone in Tralee, Day after tomorrow comes to mind:eek:!

Irish Steve

This phrase came up in the other thread, but as it's about the models, and this is the discussion thread, I shall have to hope it gets picked up here,

MT used the phrase Blizzard of fog, and that sort of provokes some serious mental images, you didn't perchance put something stronger in the last coffee

Seriously, if that's possible with these threads going the way they are, I've certainly seen freezing rain (or freezing fog, even worse) on a number of occasions, and had problems with the screen wipers freezing their way off the screen and becoming useless over a short period of time, but how DO we describe (and I'm not trying to be smart here) Freezing Snow, if that makes sense, which it doesn't because it's already frozen before it arrives.

I guess what I'm thinking about, and what was being alluded to is a step up from freezing fog, which would be snow that starts somehow "clumping" on a vehicle or similar, rather than remaining soft fluffy and separate flakes. Not even sure there is a "proper" description for this phenomena, but it has to be feasible, and possible, I think. The mental picture of a frozen screen of snow, almost like a curtain in the sky, in some respect defies the imagination, but snow falling through fog is certainly thought provoking.

Would it be possible for snow to fall through fog and start to freeze into larger "clumps" or super flakes, and could multiple "super flakes" then freeze into even larger "mega flakes". At some stage, one would expect gravity or maybe wind to become a factor, though wind and fog are not normally associated.

Peter, I think we've been drinking the same coffee

My brain hurts, I think it's time to go for bed and come back to this when the next forecast run comes out, or quit before a Mod decides that I've lost the plot completely

I've already posted it and realised that it was a reply, but in the wrong thread, deleted it and moved it here, any more shenanigans, and I will be in line for some sort of award for snowball of the week or similar .

Steve

Iancar29

Irish Steve wrote: »

This phrase came up in the other thread, but as it's about the models, and this is the discussion thread, I shall have to hope it gets picked up here,

MT used the phrase Blizzard of fog, and that sort of provokes some serious mental images, you didn't perchance put something stronger in the last coffee

Seriously, if that's possible with these threads going the way they are, I've certainly seen freezing rain (or freezing fog, even worse) on a number of occasions, and had problems with the screen wipers freezing their way off the screen and becoming useless over a short period of time, but how DO we describe (and I'm not trying to be smart here) Freezing Snow, if that makes sense, which it doesn't because it's already frozen before it arrives.

I guess what I'm thinking about, and what was being alluded to is a step up from freezing fog, which would be snow that starts somehow "clumping" on a vehicle or similar, rather than remaining soft fluffy and separate flakes. Not even sure there is a "proper" description for this phenomena, but it has to be feasible, and possible, I think. The mental picture of a frozen screen of snow, almost like a curtain in the sky, in some respect defies the imagination, but snow falling through fog is certainly thought provoking.

Would it be possible for snow to fall through fog and start to freeze into larger "clumps" or super flakes, and could multiple "super flakes" then freeze into even larger "mega flakes". At some stage, one would expect gravity or maybe wind to become a factor, though wind and fog are not normally associated.

Peter, I think we've been drinking the same coffee

My brain hurts, I think it's time to go for bed and come back to this when the next forecast run comes out, or quit before a Mod decides that I've lost the plot completely

I've already posted it and realised that it was a reply, but in the wrong thread, deleted it and moved it here, any more shenanigans, and I will be in line for some sort of award for snowball of the week or similar .

Steve

Alright Steve...

From what what i can make out , MT's "blizzard of Fog"... is just what it means... ALOT OF FOG.

What i think your on about is more on in line with the differences between... freezing rain,sleet, wet snow and dry snow... with the current potential id say sleety and wet snow will be a problem . Dry snow as mentioned on high grounds only really.

Iancar29

Just gonna post here too...


For the snow & high wind potential on tuesday. WOuld anyone be "chasing" anything from the dublin region? ... I myelf dont drive but id be more than willing to goes halfsies on petrol. Full car of baordsies even would be great too! haha!

I hav experience in the chasing of le storms .. trust me ha

SO ye... thought id just ask .

Irish Steve

Iancar29 wrote: »

Alright Steve...

From what what i can make out , MT's "blizzard of Fog"... is just what it means... ALOT OF FOG.

What i think your on about is more on in line with the differences between... freezing rain,sleet, wet snow and dry snow... with the current potential id say sleety and wet snow will be a problem . Dry snow as mentioned on high grounds only really.

Yeah, that was sort of my thinking too, it was that thought of "Blizzard" that got me thinking, in that Blizzard is specifically a snow related event, and then the thoughts of a foggy blizzard got me to thinking about the implications, and when I go at it again, I'm not sure that the 2 are not mutually exclusive, in that fog would normally be related to low level, and if it's fog, it's not freezing, so snow in fog becomes even more thought provoking.

OK, blizzard in low cloud, not an issue as such, but it's low cloud rather than fog, (Praps I'll just stop digging ), but I think you know what I mean.

No problems at all with the concept of wet and dry snow, that's our problem here in Ireland, too much wet snow, always the wrong sort for clearing equipment, or so we're told, ( bit like British trains and the wrong sort of leaves on the track) dry snow is much easier to work with, and in that respect, I agree, no way that you'd get snow off the wings at Dublin airport the way that programs like Ice Pilots brush snow off in temps of -20 or more with just a brush.

I can still remember a spectacular 24 hours near Denver where the temp dropped from 70 F to -20 F overnight, and dumped 18" of snow with next to no wind, so we came down in the morning to the sight of a 4" wise column of snow over 12" deep on the 45 degree handrail of an external flight of stairs. Dry powedery snow that blew in all directions once the wind got going, and stayed that way because the temperatures were so low, and stayed that way for the next week.

It's just that evocative Blizzard of Fog phrase that made me start to think (wander maybe?:D)

Steve

sunbabe08

met eireann have put up their warning

Issued at 11 December 2011 - 12:01
Weather Advisory
The weather in the coming week will be very windy for a lot of the time with some stormy episodes expected. At the moment, later Tuesday or Wednesday and Thursday night/Friday look to be especially at risk.
Some falls of sleet or snow will occur at times also especially in the North and West.
There is also the risk of some flooding especially along the Atlantic sea board where there will be very high seas and swell coinciding with high tides.

M.T. Cranium

Steve, that sounds like a mixture of wet snow and freezing drizzle or sleet.

I am fairly confident that if the forum regulars add all the hours of snow they have experienced together, I would be ahead after 40 winters in Ontario, and so I've seen a lot of sloppy messes of this and that, a blizzard of fog was my idea of that sort of mess blowing by in a mist, visibility maybe 100 metres or so. You're driving through it and can see nothing but streaks of white glop coming at you, the windshield wipers are rapidly clogging up with goop, and your windshield spray turns it to blue goop before it just sludges down to the bottom of your windshield.

Lovely picture, no?

As to chasing this storm, it could be quite dramatic anywhere on the west coast later tomorrow, but I have to wonder about visibility, could be good for brief intervals and lousy for other parts of the day. And the drive both ways could be tricky.

Not that it would stop me, but I've driven in some conditions that would be almost unknown in Ireland. Probably because I'm basically not of sound mind.

Well that's not news.

:cool:

km79

All quiet here and outside the calm before the storm ...

fizzycyst

km79 wrote: »

All quiet here and outside the calm before the storm ...

Same here (Waterford), in fact it's a beautiful sunny morning, but this will be short lived according to MT's forecast this morning.

Question:

Someone was saying on here yesterday that the further south the low goes on Thurs/Fri, the further the cold air will be dragged down from the north, and hence the higher the probability of snow in the southern half of the country.

With the low now on a more southerly track, are the chances of snow increased? and if not why?

Cantona's Collars

The Daily Mail has picked up on the forecasts and the alerts from the UKMO.

Storms will batter England and Wales from tonight, with forecasters warning that we are about to endure the windiest week of the year.

The Met Office has issued a 30-hour weather warning beginning at 6pm this evening, with the high winds that hammered Scotland and the north of England last week about to be repeated further south.

A band of heavy rain is also forecast to move eastwards from Wales overnight, raising the risk of flooding.

Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2072937/Get-ready-windiest-week-year-storms-way-batter-UK.html#ixzz1gJQ0EurT



LOL at some of the comments below the article though,where do they get some of those people:)

WolfeIRE

fizzycyst wrote: »

With the low now on a more southerly track, are the chances of snow increased? and if not why?

I made that comment Fizzy, based on the severe storm that was being projected at the time. Cold winds were wrapped around the western edge of that storm and being dragged down in its aftermath. However, at the time the storm was tracking over Scotland meaning that Scotland and NI would have borne the brunt of such wintry weather that followed the storm. A more southerly track would have resulted in greater portions of the country experiencing the wintry weather.

Now we are dealing with a less organised system that splits into two over Ireland, the southern more organised system tracking over Ireland and the second to our north. It is an entirely different setup . The morning GEFS is rolling out now so I will update soon.

EDIT (Update)
Posted on other thread i.e. model discussion

Latest run best summed up as the GEFS doing this to the 'storm'. Plenty of time for change though and I am confident that the forecast is far from certain and will change.

Cú Giobach

zerks wrote: »

LOL at some of the comments below the article though,where do they get some of those people:)

The best one is "what a load of crap, it's a beautiful morning here".

Drizzle started here now and gone from calm to breezy.

Irish Steve

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

Steve, that sounds like a mixture of wet snow and freezing drizzle or sleet.

I am fairly confident that if the forum regulars add all the hours of snow they have experienced together, I would be ahead after 40 winters in Ontario, and so I've seen a lot of sloppy messes of this and that, a blizzard of fog was my idea of that sort of mess blowing by in a mist, visibility maybe 100 metres or so. You're driving through it and can see nothing but streaks of white glop coming at you, the windshield wipers are rapidly clogging up with goop, and your windshield spray turns it to blue goop before it just sludges down to the bottom of your windshield.

Lovely picture, no?

As to chasing this storm, it could be quite dramatic anywhere on the west coast later tomorrow, but I have to wonder about visibility, could be good for brief intervals and lousy for other parts of the day. And the drive both ways could be tricky.

Not that it would stop me, but I've driven in some conditions that would be almost unknown in Ireland. Probably because I'm basically not of sound mind.

Well that's not news.

:cool:

Peter,

So evocative, and before we moved to Ireland, been there, done that, shredded the T shirt in spades, the moors of South West England can be very unpredictable and weather exactly like you've described, other than possibly not quite as cold, is common, and because it's localised to the moors, people even 30 miles away don't realise how tricky it can be. Many the time it would be raining at home, and only 5 miles away, 800 Ft higher up, there could be up to 6" of wet snow in foggy blizzard conditions waiting for the unwary.

A phrase from aviation comes to mind, often heard at Bristol airport, especially in the winter months, "Be advised there is cloud below the airfield level". Bristol airport is perched on top of a hill, at the edge of the ridge, so ATC can see over the edge into the valley below, and it's regular to see low scud, or worse, running up the valley below. A sure sign that before too long, the visibility at the airfield is likely to become unflyable to a lot of aircraft.

I too have driven in conditions that I've never seen in Ireland, I'm near Dublin now, so spent most of last winter watching the Isle of Man streamer do unmentionable things to very narrow swathes of North County Dublin, but we don't get the frontal snow that drops a massive pile of snow in short time periods that used to hit the South West of England a few years ago. Several times, we got several feet of wet snow overnight, which completely overwhelmed the clearing services and machinery (wrong sort of snow again, wet snow in any quantity is a nightmare to shift with almost any snow clearing machine other than a front loader bucket) , so a set of snow chains and suitable clothing, etc, were mandatory in my vehicle for a few months of the year, but so far, I've never not got where I was planning to go, albeit that on occasions, it took a lot longer than expected to make the journey.

I'm not sure that madness quite describes it, there is for sure a challenge to driving safely in adverse conditions, which in the right circumstances I enjoy, and while fun is not the right word either, most of the time it's not unpleasant as such. In the right vehicle, ( a suitably equipped studded tyre manual transmission Jeep Cherokee) I've also had some great times at over 12,000 Ft in the Rockies of Colorado, and if I can choose between a major road or cross country minor roads, I have to admit a preference for "the scenic route", even if it does take longer, but if time is not a factor, that adds to the enjoyment of some very nice views and the like. That's not madness, not in my book, but some would give me "old fashioned looks" for enjoying such conditions That said, there are times when no journey is the safest journey, but that's not that often a hard decision to make.

As for the models and the weather over this week, it's looking like any more than 24 hours ahead is going to be a lottery, with the winning ticket about as elusive, the models for all sorts of reasons just don't have the variables to allow for the real changes that are happening, and to be honest, probably just as well that a storm of the severity of the original predictions is not now as likely, wet snow in almost hurricane force winds and some of Ireland's electric distribution network are an incompatible mixture, and while I can manage very happily without mains power if I have to, as I've a decent standby generator, damage on the scale that was possible would have been a major problem at this time of the year.

Back to enjoying the thread , and fixing my weather station so that it works again.

cheers

Steve

H2UMrsRobinson

God it's up and down like the proverbial hoors droors...!

Defininitely don't think anyone should write this off as a non-event - all that can be guaranteed is that some weather is going to happen. It may be wet cold muck but that's still weather !!!

Glued to the forums this week. I have Boards colour scheme set on minimilist so it looks "worky".

Trouble is every time a chart is posted it's like a burst of colour on the screen

WolfeIRE

Latest from Met Eireann

12 December 2011 11:43

Today Rain will spread into western areas and will gradually extend eastwards today. The rain will be heavy at times and there is the risk of some localised flooding in the west. Highest temperatures will range from 5 to 10 degrees, and it will be cooler in the north. Southerly winds will increase this afternoon and they will become fresh to strong, while winds along the Atlantic coast will be near gale force.
Tonight

The rain will clear the east coast early tonight and squally showers will develop behind it. Some of the showers will be wintry in particular in the west and north, and some will spread further inland on the back of the strong southwest winds. A cold night, with temperatures falling to between 0 and 3 degrees. However the strong southwest winds should prevent any significant frost from forming.

Tomorrow

It will become extremely windy tomorrow, Tuesday. Stormy conditions will develop early in the day in the west and north with gale to strong gale winds and gusts of 100 to 130 km/h likely. In parts of the northwest there will be showers of rain and some snow accumulations are likely too, as well as on higher ground further south. A bitterly cold day with highest temperatures of 3 to 7 degrees.

Outlook

SUMMARY: Cold and oftentimes windy for the rest of the week, with outbreak of rain, some of which will turn wintry. Afternoon temperatures will rise no higher than 3 to 7 degrees, with some frost and ice developing too. Possibility of stormy weather on Thursday. TUESDAY NIGHT: Cold and rather breezy, with some wintry showers, mainly affecting Atlantic coastal counties. Some frost and icy stretches developing too, though generally in more sheltered areas. Lowest temperatures +1 to -2 degrees, with moderate to fresh westerly winds. WEDNESDAY : Breezy with mostly fresh westerly winds. Sunny spells, but scattered showers too. Some of the showers will be wintry, with the risk of some snow accumulations (mainly over higher ground and the north). THURSDAY: Starting off largely dry, but clouding over with wintry outbreaks (mainly of rain and sleet) moving up across the country from the south, heavy at times across southern counties. Risk of very windy if not stormy conditions developing later in the day, with rain possibly turning to snow in places during the evening and overnight. FRIDAY: A very blustery day, with strong and gusty west to northwest winds. Occasional wintry showers too.

aurora 527

H2UMrsRobinson wrote: »

Glued to the forums this week. I have Boards colour scheme set on minimilist so it looks "worky".

:D:D Me too.
Interesting times ahead!!

Pangea

Helen Curran just said Blizzard like conditions in the NW tomorrow!
Didn't think she had it in her!!!!!

WolfeIRE

Snow showers in ne and e later on Thursday. Blizzard like conditions in nw tomorrow.

RTE News at One weather was full of surprises. No reference to Thursday's potential storm as well.

ArtSmart

Irish Steve wrote: »

Peter,

So evocative, and before we moved to Ireland, been there, done that, shredded the T shirt in spades, the moors of South West England can be very unpredictable and weather exactly like you've described, other than possibly not quite as cold, is common, and because it's localised to the moors, people even 30 miles away don't realise how tricky it can be. Many the time it would be raining at home, and only 5 miles away, 800 Ft higher up, there could be up to 6" of wet snow in foggy blizzard conditions waiting for the unwary.

Hmmm. Not liking the sound of that.

Tell me, would Exeter or Plymouth or Newton Abbot be affected by the moors?

rhonin

The wind has really picked up here in the last hour. Heavy rain with it and feeling very cold.

MiNdGaM3

Some minor flooding in spots around Cork city at the moment. Nothing too bad, but it's still coming down hard out.

Irish Steve

ArtSmart wrote: »

Hmmm. Not liking the sound of that.

Tell me, would Exeter or Plymouth or Newton Abbot be affected by the moors?

in terms of snow, not much, as they are all relatively low level, so it could well be raining in any or all of them, but blizzard conditions on the moors.

What can be tricky is direct road between them, as the roads go over high ground, between Newton Abbot and Exeter you have the Haldon Hills range, with some steep gradients (A380) and altitude to add to the mix, and between Exeter and Plymouth Haldon hills again, but different road (A38) and then later, the southern edge of Dartmoor, but relatively low compared to the highest ground, which is further north, so not usually too serious, unless there's general snow across the whole area, in which case, the higher you are, the worse it gets.

Family live in Exeter, so know the area very well indeed. Still visit regularly, so know what's changing roads wise.

If the weather is really bad, there is an alternative route along the coast from Exeter to Newton Abbot, much lower, but still one or 2 tricky hills if there is general snow around.

Hope that helps

Steve

mickger844posts

Winds picking up in Waterford City, Average 31km/h Max gust 60km/h, 9.8mm of rain since Midnight.

www.waterfordcityweather.com/wxindex.php

Oscar Bravo

A nice few strikes appearing off the NW coast.

Tactical

Good evening Boardsies

Hope you're all well and have everything stowed away for the evening.

Settling in for the evening

irish1967

Coffee /
Beers /
Smokes /
Candles /
Batteries /
Lap & iPhone charging /
Garden debris removed /
Relations warned /
Fuel stocked up /
Cat in /
Car away from trees /
No work till Thursday /

Ok.... Bring it on.

irish1967

Right the kettles boiled. Let's keep the other thread for charts etc. if necessary I'll draw a chart of the path of the debris passing my window. We'll stay here and enjoy the show.

Seriously let's leave the other thread to the experts we'll learn a lot more reading what they have to say

Tactical

I've been passing the time by scrubbing and polishing my recently constructed rain gauge.

Thought it an appropriate activity for the evening that's in it

Totofan99

Thunder right now in NE county Galway....

Tactical

Pasta and meat balls right now in North Dublin :P

Yum:)

irish1967

It will be interesting to see what ME say about the next few days in a few minutes time. Fridays storm seems to have vanished.

Tomorrow they have max of 130kmh. Will they up that like last week to 140kmh.

Cantona's Collars

Been raining steadily here in Co.Wexford since midday,some strong gusts aswell.

Channel 5 news had a report on this weeks storms with a weather alert in effect for pretty much most of the week bar Wednesday.

Jimmy Garlic

A bit of rain here in Limerick, I am not impressed.

Saganist

Is that the storm system pushing into the west, indicated on www.raintoday.co.uk ?

Birdnuts

My Oregan pressure alarm has been going off since midday - first time this year:D

gbee

Birdnuts wrote: »

My Oregan pressure alarm has been going off since midday - first time this year:D

Just a few Millibars away from a weather bomb? I show a drop of 20 millibars today. :eek: