Grand National 2012

Nulty

Killyglen ran really well on ground that wouldn't be his favourite and looked just outpaced after the last. He has an outstanding chance in the National on what should be run on good ground.

Sunnyhillboy made his reappearance today in the Fixed Brush hurdle at Haydock. I was hoping for a little better but he'll be much better after that run and over fences. I can't be sure that Organisedconfusion will run being so young and will probably go for the 2013 edition. Sunnyhillboy was hampered in the Irish national last year and would have been a good deal closer with a trouble free passage. Again though, can't be sure he'll go for the race.

Synchronised was very good in the fixed brush staying on. he'll carry some weight at Aintree if he goes and will only run if there is some cut which is pretty unlikely.

RichieLawlor

I've already had some small bets on Beshabar

Colonel Sanders

Still very early days and I've yet to really study the race but one I put on my short list last year after the Irish National was Western Charmer

Dessie Hughes know how to train Aintree horses, trip should be no problem & jumping has never been an issue thusfar

Nulty

Colonel Sanders wrote: »

Still very early days and I've yet to really study the race but one I put on my short list last year after the Irish National was Western Charmer

Dessie Hughes know how to train Aintree horses, trip should be no problem & jumping has never been an issue thusfar

Absolutely agree. It's early if your not sure the horse is being aimed at the race. Killyglen is a certainty to line up if hes fit and well. Any idea what the plan is with Western Charmer?

Juwwi

Anybody think the way Somersby jumped and travelled today that he could take his chance in the national one day.

Probably wont this year.

hucklebuck

I can't see it myself Robbie.

If Frankie Figg is fit I reckon I will back him, decent national sort and now with Nicholls, he should be there or thereabouts

shy-tall-knight

I was going to say that Poker de Sivola at 33's would interest me at the moment after the way he won the gold cup at Sandown. Brilliant ride from timmy murphy that day, was ready to throw my docket away after the first circuit! The national looks a logical choice this season but he's currently trading at 142 on betfair which would make me hesitant to back him at this time, big prices like that always put me off as to the chances of a horse turning up. What do people think or anyone have any idea if he is infact being aimed at the national?

newuser89

I taught poker de sivola was out for the season with injury

shy-tall-knight

newuser89 wrote: »

I taught poker de sivola was out for the season with injury

Maybe he is and that would explain the prices on the exchanges. Can't find confirmation of it anywhere though

Just found out he is out for the season but murphy hopes to have him right for a tilt at the GN in 2013. Still only an 8 year old.

premierstone

robbie1977 wrote: »

Anybody think the way Somersby jumped and travelled today that he could take his chance in the national one day.

Probably wont this year.

Henrietta is as mad as a box of frogs but even she wouldnt consider this, the horse achieved its career high rating running over 2m 1f, now I agree that he now needs a step up, but 3m max, no way would that horse get 4m 4f and would also be carrying a huge wait.

Do agree with you that he jumped beautifully btw.

UrbanSea

Dessie Hughes' are always interesting for this and I think that Western Charmer could be one to keep an eye on too Colonel

UrbanSea

Interesting he gets a five star rating here. I was looking up grand national ratings.

Can anyone tell me what's around the minimum rating needed to get in for the national

Nulty

West End Rocker did a very good job of making a claim for the National yesterday. I see no reason why he couldn't go on and win the big one in April. He looks just as capable on soft or good ground so the weather shouldn't affect him too much one way or the other. It'll be interesting to see what the handicapper does to him before considering a bet though.

Appatently Alan King isn't a big fan of the National but that shouldn't jeapordise WER's chances of taking part. He was really unlucky last year and with a clear run looks a solid chance.

Huntey

Nulty wrote: »

West End Rocker did a very good job of making a claim for the National yesterday. I see no reason why he couldn't go on and win the big one in April. He looks just as capable on soft or good ground so the weather shouldn't affect him too much one way or the other. It'll be interesting to see what the handicapper does to him before considering a bet though.

Appatently Alan King isn't a big fan of the National but that shouldn't jeapordise WER's chances of taking part. He was really unlucky last year and with a clear run looks a solid chance.

I think you have said it yourself Nulty, he will probably get hammered by the handicapper for yesterdays win.

A spin over hurdles to keep the mark down seems the way to go these days if you are realistically aiming for the National.

00dyel

There are a few that i really like.

Beshabar: He jumped brilliantly in the Hennessy but may be given a hike in the weights for his 5th place finish. With about 1 mile to go he started to get outpaced but kept battling away and started to run on again at the end. From looking like he was going to get swallowed up 2 out he ran really well to end up 5th. He should stay as he has won over 4m and finished 2nd at Cheltenham over the same distance. Connections bought him with the Grand National in mind and he is the rightful favourite.

Ballabriggs: Won it last year obviously and the amount of winners that come out and run well in it again is quite high. He jumped for fun that day and bar one mistake was foot perfect. He and Oscar Time could even still be improving and can both go close again.

Oscar Time:As mentioned above, this horse i really think has improvement left in him. I am sure he is being aimed for the race and he should go close again.

Any Currency: Currently 66/1 this horse looks ideal for a National. Always seems to get outpaced over what ever distance he runs. He was 3rd at the weekend at Sandown and was one of the first off the bridle, but after continuous scrubbing along the horse continued to respond and i think if it had been over 1/2 mile further he would have won.

Admittedly none of the above were particularly original selections but i think these 4 have a great chance.

Nulty

UrbanSea wrote: »

Interesting he gets a five star rating here. I was looking up grand national ratings.

Can anyone tell me what's around the minimum rating needed to get in for the national

I think its around the 138 mark. Just check last years race, that should tell you.

Nulty

That was a damn good guess if I do say so myself. Although I have been looking at the race recently.

Skippers Brig and Character Building ran off 138 (10-2) in the 2011 edition.

premierstone

Nulty wrote: »

West End Rocker did a very good job of making a claim for the National yesterday. I see no reason why he couldn't go on and win the big one in April. He looks just as capable on soft or good ground so the weather shouldn't affect him too much one way or the other. It'll be interesting to see what the handicapper does to him before considering a bet though.

Appatently Alan King isn't a big fan of the National but that shouldn't jeapordise WER's chances of taking part. He was really unlucky last year and with a clear run looks a solid chance.

I slightly disagree Nulty I think the horse is ground dependent, yes he has won on good ground but he's two best performances by some way have come on heavy ground, Saturday and in Warwick last January, with that in mind and the inevitable hike in hes handicap mark the 20/1 being quoted looks skimpy to me.

UrbanSea

Thanks Nulty

Nulty

I'm not considering backing WER. I'm just keeping the thread going. His best performances so far have come on soft ground but over the National trip he could match and surpass his best. His best performances up until now would not be good enough to win the national anyway. Most of the entries in the national need career bests to win and WER is no different.

Interestingly, the two recent winners of both the Becher and the National, Amberleigh House and Silver Birch, didn't do the double in the same year. Both won the National 2 years after winning the Becher.

Harry Angstrom

I think Junior could be interesting. There aren't many horses who can win at Royal Ascot and the Cheltenham Festival. I have a feeling that the Pipe team might be laying him out for the race although I don't think I'd even contemplate having an ante-post bet until the weights come out in February.

West End Rocker was impressive on Saturday but I'm wondering if he'll be as effective on quicker ground next April.

kksaints

Deep Purple was another horse that was mentioned with the national as a target after winning on Saturday. He probably wont stay but is a classy horse at his best.

Colonel Sanders

Colonel Sanders wrote: »

Still very early days and I've yet to really study the race but one I put on my short list last year after the Irish National was Western Charmer

Dessie Hughes know how to train Aintree horses, trip should be no problem & jumping has never been an issue thusfar

Western Charmer goes over hurdles tomorrow.

Typical National prep by the looks of it

Nulty

Colonel Sanders wrote: »

Western Charmer goes over hurdles tomorrow.

Typical National prep by the looks of it

Have you ever seen a horse prepared for the Irish Grand National with a similar preparation? Being trained by Dessie makes me think WC is going to Aintree but just wondering...I've taken some 40s on Western Charmer just now.

On a similar thread, Killyglens 40/1 is gone now. Best price is 33/1.

Nulty

West End Rocker has been put up 12lbs for his Becher win. He's now 149. That's not a massive weight. He'd be carrying 10-13 on last years running. I think thats a fair weight. Still not an antepost bet though now his price is shorter and weight bigger.

Western Charmer is entered in the Paddy Power chase at Leopardstown over christmas.

Colonel Sanders

Nulty wrote: »

Western Charmer is entered in the Paddy Power chase at Leopardstown over christmas.

What's his new mark? Think he was put up to 144 after his Irish National run but not sure if he was unchanged or not after Punchestown

UrbanSea

He's rated 143

Nulty

Looks like Western Charmer is going to stick to hurdles until "bigger targets in the spring". Wouldn't be taking a price on him in the Paddy Power. Being rated 143 in Ireland might get him the weight of a 146 horse, add to that a win in the PP and he doesn't look as attractive. That was a very encouraging run behind Blazing Tempo today though over 2m2f. He's in the Welsh National too but thats very unlikely.

Nulty

Synchronised is into 10s with Ladbrokes and 25s with Paddy Power. No way I'd back the horse at 33/1. He'll be put up around 15lbs for that win and would likely run off top weight in at Aintree. Laughable to think he'll run in the National now.

gscully

I'll be keeping an eye on the weight given to State Of Play. Finished fifth two years ago and was given less weight last year. He jumps like a stag and stays the course. He was miles back jumping the last, yet rocketed up to third at 33/1. If his weight is anything like last year, lump on each-way. I'm not sure he runs beforehand but it won't matter as he goes well fresh.

Colonel Sanders

gscully wrote: »

I'll be keeping an eye on the weight given to State Of Play. Finished fifth two years ago and was given less weight last year. He jumps like a stag and stays the course. He was miles back jumping the last, yet rocketed up to third at 33/1. If his weight is anything like last year, lump on each-way. I'm not sure he runs beforehand but it won't matter as he goes well fresh.

While a huge fan of the horse (had half decent each way bets in 09 & 10) I can't help think his chance has gone with his advancing years tbh

Morgans

Havent seen anything to turn me off Organisedconfusion yet this year.

hucklebuck

Actually Mon Mome ran a cracker in Cheltenham on his reappearance after 600+ days off. He is only rated 144, may rise but not inconceivable that he may only have to shoulder 11-0.

Looks interesting at 33/1.

Harry Angstrom

hucklebuck wrote: »

Actually Mon Mome ran a cracker in Cheltenham on his reappearance after 600+ days off. He is only rated 144, may rise but not inconceivable that he may only have to shoulder 11-0.

Looks interesting at 33/1.

The problem with Mon Mome running so well the other day is that the handicapper will now take the "Aintree Factor" into account when assessing his chances for the National, meaning that he's bound to be shouldering a few pounds more than a horse who ran a similar race but without the Aintree form in the book. Mon Mome would probably have been better off if he'd had an "off day" in that race on New Years Day.

finbarrk

Morgans wrote: »

Havent seen anything to turn me off Organisedconfusion yet this year.

40/1 with Stan James and 33/1 with a few more of them. I might chance him.

wilson8862

finbarrk wrote: »

40/1 with Stan James and 33/1 with a few more of them. I might chance him.

I think you have to go back a long, long way to find the last 7-y-o winner, though. That's a massive negative.

Morgans

Same reason why Long Run as a 6yo couldnt win a Gold Cup last year. Remember when horses needed to carry less than 11 stone to win. If the horse loses it will be because he isnt good enough, not because he is 7.

How many of these 7yo's had realistic chances? Ive gone back to 2003 records and seen 3 7yo's that started at less than 20/1. And very few overall.

On the other hand, the Irish National is the best trial.

Colonel Sanders

Morgans wrote: »

Remember when horses needed to carry less than 11 stone to win. l.

yes, before the handicapper started compressing the weights. Interestingly the NH trends guide had been flagging up the stat for a few years but was saying that 11st was too conservative a cut off with the way the weights were framed, basically said it was only a matter of time before it was broken.

Paul jones (author of the festival betting guide) was also v strong on Long Run in the gold cup last year.

The 7yo thing is probably linked to most horses of that age not being man enough for a gruelling 4m 4 chase. In this case it could be argued that Organisedconfusion may have already debunked that theory about this particular 7yo by winning the Irish National last year

wilson8862

Yep, no question that the weight trend has changed significantly in recent years, but the age trend is still very strong....8 year olds have a pretty poor record as well, as it happens. There's a fairly strong argument (made by Paul Jones, for one) that most younger horses simply lack the physical maturity for 4.5 miles, combined with the stamina-sapping fences.

I take your point on the irish national as a trial for the big one. However, I'd agree with the previous poster(s) who put up Western Charmer as the one to take out of last year's irish national. There's a Dessie Hughes stable tour in the racing post weekender on wednesday, apparently, so I'm hoping he'll clarify what the plan is for WC.

finbarrk

Anyone know when are the weights out?

RichieLawlor

finbarrk wrote: »

Anyone know when are the weights out?

February

wilson8862

Entries released Jan 31, and weights on Feb 14/15.

Pj!

Last year's 2nd Oscar Time out for the season.

Pj!

82 entered. 31 from Ireland including 12 from Willie Mullins.
Weights announced the 14th February.
Scratchings on the 28th February and the 20th March.
Final decs 12th April.



2/31P/-FP ABBEYBRANEY (IRE) 11 Sue Johnson George Bewley

22-3011 ACCORDING TO PETE 11 Peter Nelson Malcolm Jefferson

F-6041U ALFA BEAT (IRE) 8 Irvin Naylor John Hanlon IRE

2113-1P ALWAYS RIGHT (IRE) 10 John Wade John Wade

041-044 ALWAYS WAINING (IRE) 11 Mr & Mrs Peter James Douglas Peter Bowen

6-12026 ANOTHER PALM (IRE) 7 M J M Racing Syndicate Noel Meade IRE

32-3P40 ANY CURRENCY (IRE) 9 Cash Is King Martin Keighley

2-FU111 APT APPROACH (IRE) 9 Greenstar Syndicate Willie Mullins IRE

0P2F-60 ARBOR SUPREME (IRE) 10 J P McManus Jonjo O'Neill

P/5000-P BACKSTAGE (FR) 10 MPR & Capranny Syndicate Gordon Elliott IRE

11/1121- BALLABRIGGS (IRE) 11 Trevor Hemmings Donald McCain

12-20P3 BALLYVESEY (IRE) 7 Roddy Owen & Paul Fullagar Peter Bowen

42F-63F BECAUSEICOULDNTSEE (IRE) 9 Noel Glynn Noel Glynn IRE

51U/022/- BLACK APALACHI (IRE) 13 Gerard Burke Dessie Hughes IRE

143111 BLAZING TEMPO (IRE) 8 Susannah Ricci Willie Mullins IRE

11121/2- BURTONPORT (IRE) 8 Trevor Hemmings Nicky Henderson

2F-0511 CALGARYBAY(IRE) 9 Camilla Radford Henrietta Knight

3F2P/-13 CAPPA BLEU (IRE) 10 William & Angela Rucker Evan Williams

10-U303 CHICAGOGREY (IRE) 9 John Earls Gordon Elliott IRE

3/5P-230 COOLDINE (IRE) 10 Jackie Mullins Willie Mullins IRE

5U-P20P CRESCENTISLAND (IRE) 9 Sarah Bays Jill Scott Sarah MacEchern Nigel Twiston-Davies

6/3U34-1 DEEP PURPLE 11 Paul Green Evan Williams

4-U2634 FAIR ALONG (GER) 10 Alan Peterson Philip Hobbs

3/P22-12 GILES CROSS (IRE) 10 KCMS Partnership Victor Dartnall

1P-1323 HECTOR'S CHOICE (FR) 8 James and Jean Potter Richard Lee

PP-5U65 HELLO BUD (IRE) 14 Seamus Murphy Nigel Twiston-Davies

PP//1-11 HOLD ON JULIO (IRE) 9 Mr & Mrs F Bell, N Farrell, A Marsh Alan King

431U0-P IN COMPLIANCE (IRE) 12 Dessie Hughes Dessie Hughes IRE

131/321- JUNIOR 9 Middleham Park Racing LI David Pipe

F-03034 KILLYGLEN (IRE) 10 David McCammon Stuart Crawford IRE

50-PP0F KING FONTAINE (IRE) 9 Trevor Hemmings Malcolm Jefferson

P-0P011 LE BEAU BAI (FR) 9 Glass Half Full Richard Lee

6/1155-6 LITTLE JOSH (IRE) 10 Tony Bloom Nigel Twiston-Davies

235/3/1-P MASSINI'S MAGUIRE (IRE) 11 Alan Peterson David Pipe

115-F31 MIDNIGHT CHASE 10 Lady Clarke Neil Mulholland

21/10P-1 MIDNIGHT HAZE 10 Kim Bailey Racing Partnership Kim Bailey

0P3-5U2 MINELLA THEATRE (IRE) 9 Middleham Park Racing XXIV & Dan Gilbert Lawney Hill

63F/-52P MON MOME (FR) 12 Vida Bingham Venetia Williams

106-P42 NEPTUNE COLLONGES (FR) 11 John Hales Paul Nicholls

30-3150 NEPTUNE EQUESTER 9 Koo's Racing Club Brian Ellison

F505-02 NICHE MARKET (IRE) 11 Graham Regan Paul Nicholls

500423- NORTHERN ALLIANCE (IRE) 11 Irish Rover Syndicate Tony Martin IRE

14P1-B1 ON HIS OWN (IRE) 8 Andrea & Graham Wylie Willie Mullins IRE

12-133F ORGANISEDCONFUSION (IRE) 7 Grace Dunlop Arthur Moore IRE

0-42026 OUR ISLAND (IRE) 7 David Fox Tim Vaughan

2130-F2 PEARLYSTEPS 9 The Glazeley Partnership Henry Daly

F01/35-2 PLANET OF SOUND 10 Charles Lloyd-Baker Philip Hobbs

FP-2661 POSTMASTER 10 The Bill & Ben Partnership Tim Vaughan

U5351-5 PRINCE DE BEAUCHENE (FR) 9 Andrea & Graham Wylie Willie Mullins IRE

0F2224 PSYCHO (IRE) 11 Exors of The Late C McClure Tony Martin IRE

R-120U3 QHILIMAR (FR) 8 Whites of Coventry & Stephen Dunn Charlie Longsdon

112-021 QUANTITATIVEEASING (IRE) 7 J P McManus Nicky Henderson

1FF-F11 QUEL ESPRIT (FR) 8 Red Barn Syndicate Willie Mullins IRE

2F-4010 QUISCOVER FONTAINE (FR) 8 J P McManus Willie Mullins IRE

PU-3450 RARE BOB (IRE) 10 D A Syndicate Dessie Hughes IRE

1U3043 ROBERTO GOLDBACK (IRE) 10 Seamus Dunne Dessie Hughes IRE

//U1/2B/1- ROULEZ COOL 9 Robert Waley-Cohen Robert Waley-Cohen

0/660-P4 SADDLERS STORM (IRE) 10 Billy Moffett, R T & J McLoughlin Tony Martin IRE

11PPP0 SCHINDLER'S GOLD (IRE) 10 Dr Richard & Laura Newland Dr Richard Newland

363144 SCOTSIRISH (IRE) 11 Double R Stables Syndicate Willie Mullins IRE

F11/-111 SEABASS (IRE) 9 Gunners Syndicate Ted Walsh IRE

000-112 SHAKALAKABOOMBOOM (IRE) 8 Liam Breslin Nicky Henderson

30/-003P SHAKERVILZ (FR) 9 Jackie Mullins Willie Mullins IRE

05-3410 SMOKING ACES (IRE) 8 J P McManus Tom Taaffe IRE

PP24U6 SOME TARGET (IRE) 8 Captain Conflict Syndicate Willie Mullins IRE

144/P3/4- STATE OF PLAY 12 William & Angela Rucker Evan Williams

P0-5121 STEWARTS HOUSE (IRE) 10 Double Trouble Partnership Tim Vaughan

03F-30P SUNNYHILLBOY (IRE) 9 J P McManus Jonjo O'Neill

2313P2 SWING BILL (FR) 11 David Johnson David Pipe

13-P031 SYNCHRONISED (IRE) 9 J P McManus Jonjo O'Neill

04-5060 TARTAK (FR) 9 David Fox Tim Vaughan

3100-01 TATENEN (FR) 8 The Stewart Family Richard Rowe

4-P1300 THARAWAAT (IRE) 7 Gigginstown House Stud Gordon Elliott IRE

3/216-B4 THE MIDNIGHT CLUB (IRE) 11 Susannah Ricci Willie Mullins IRE

312U5/5- THE PACKAGE 9 David Johnson David Pipe

P/P-5142 TREACLE (IRE) 11 Bjorn Nielsen Tom Taaffe IRE

140310 UNCLE JUNIOR (IRE) 11 Mrs M McMahon Willie Mullins IRE

0044B-2 VIC VENTURI (IRE) 12 J P Dunne Dessie Hughes IRE

00-143P VIKING BLOND (FR) 7 Caroline Mould Nigel Twiston-Davies

1/10P-13 WEIRD AL (IRE) 9 Brannon, Dennis, Dick, Holden Donald McCain

11PB-P1 WEST END ROCKER (IRE) 10 Barry Winfield & Tim Leadbeater Alan King

1P-6P60 WYMOTT (IRE) 8 Trevor Hemmings Donald McCain

convert

Hi PJ! Can you provide a link to the entries? Thanks.

Nulty

Significant Surprises:

Seabass
Cooldine
Quel Esprit
Quantitativeeasing
Blazing Tempo
Psycho
Roberto Goldback
Burton Port



Significant Omissions:

Galaxy Rock
Baby Run
Western Charmer (!? - next year...)
Knockara Beau (Didn't think his owners wanted him in it)
Majestic Concorde
Bluesea Cracker
Hey Big Spender

UrbanSea

I'm not too surprised to see Seabass Nulty.

I am surprised not to see Western Charmer, thank God I didn't back him a few weeks ago.

MassDeb8r

UrbanSea I thought you died years ago and Sea The Stars was your last foal.

Some strange goings on here on this forum.

#Zombiemares

hucklebuck

MassDeb8r wrote: »

UrbanSea I thought you died years ago and Sea The Stars was your last foal.

Some strange goings on here on this forum.

#Zombiemares

Very strange given Born To Sea was Urbans last foal

MassDeb8r

hucklebuck I stand corrected

Thank you humbly

Nulty

Horses I don't think will turn up even if they're fit:

Weird Al
Midnight Chase
Blazing Tempo
Quantitativeeasing (Not placed 1-4 in 3m+ race)
Roberto Goldback
Quel Esprit
Tatenen
Psycho (Not placed 1-4 in 3m+ race)
Cooldine
Hold On Julio