Hunting for Money

Bruckey2345

Well done on mount benbulben

Huntey

15:25 Navan
Supreme Carolina

This is the most competitive mares bumper this season in Ireland but the Willie Mullins trained Supreme Carolina is one I think has the ability to deceive her odds here. She last ran at Cheltenham two weeks ago against the boys where the ground was a little bit quick, but she was given a decent ride by the claimer on board that day and it was an encouraging performance coming in a 7 length 5th.

Conditions will suit here and Patrick Mullins gets the leg back up on this mare after he had ridden her to a 1st and 2nd place finish on her previous two starts. The market leader here is Missunited, who beat Supreme Carolina by 3 lengths when they met a month ago in Punchestown. That was a decent performance but it wasn't the greatest ride by Patrick who was travelling so well he let the leader slip a few lengths and couldn't reel her in. Supreme Carolina gets a 3lbs swing here and I don't think she warrants being 3 times the price as she is definitely capable of reversing that form.

Shu Lewis is another who hasn't put a foot wrong and impressively won against the boys last time but she has to concede 6lbs to Supreme Carolina so I will leave her alone.

I just think that Supreme Carolina is better than her form shows and if she gets a good confident ride here there is no reason why she can't get heavily involved.

Supreme Carolina 2 points win at 6/1 (Paddy Power)

Huntey

Mount Benbulben (+10 points) showed his class when battling hard to reel in Rebel Fitz. Ruby gave his mount a fantastic ride and tried to slip the field but Davy Condon kept at Mount Benbulben who really went to work when asked. He was ridden more prominently which settled him a lot better and he has the makings of a quality horse. He drifted to 5/2 before the off aswell which was nice as the unimpressive Texas Jack went off 9/4 favourite.

Wicklow Lad (-2 points) was kept up with the pace but just couldn't sustain the tempo and faded on the straight.

I will need to watch the race again but I don't think Supreme Carolina (-2 points) was sent out to win this. She seemed to be the last on the bridle two furlongs from home but Patrick wasn't even pushing her along at that stage. She got a few taps down the neck in the last furlong or so but she didn't really have a chance to pick up and wasn't given a hard race by any means. There must have only been about 5 lengths or so between the first 7 or 8 home, one for next time probably but will have to have a second viewing.

Need to stay away from those bloody 3 mile handicaps aswell, I won't make Christmas at this rate!

Bank: 33.35 (+13.35)

Huntey

13:55 Sandown
Fingal Bay

This 2m 4f contest tomorrow is one of the better novice hurdles and an anticipated affair with some potentially very good horses involved. The Philip Hobbs trained Fingal Bay is the one who I am siding with and seems to be the value of the race on all known form.

Fingal Bay is unbeaten with 3 starts to date with two of them coming over hurdles. His first outing last February was an eye-catching display when he won by 20 lengths, although he beat some very poor horses that day. His seasonal reappearance, and first time out over hurdles was a massive step up into a Group 2 contest at Chepstow over 2m 4f and it seemed a tough task with the ground quicker than he would have wanted. However, he handled the conditions and step up in trip brilliantly and went on to win by 6 lengths to the second placed Baile Anrai. That form looks solid with Baile Anrai's previous race being a two and 3/4 length defeat at the hands of the progressive Paul Nicholl's trained Rangitoto. Furthermore, the third placed horse that day was another Nicholls trained in the form of Current Event, a mid 130 rated hurdler who was well beaten by 43 lengths.

Last time out Fingal Bay was the odds on favourite in another Group 2 contest at Cheltenham, and didn't disappoint. He jumped and travelled well until he made a very bad blunder two out, but he really showed his class by barely missing a beat and was ridden out a 3 and 1/2 length winner over Barbatos. Sivola de Sivola was a well beaten 5th that day by 13l, and he has since gone on to win easily in a class 3 chase. It was the nature in which Fingal Bay battled on to win when making a bad mistake that showed he has the scope to be a very classy sort, and one of the reasons why Hobbs rates him so highly.

Although the form isn't top class it is very solid and something which bodes well against his main rival Simonsig, who has a lot to prove. This Nicky Henderson trained grey has received many plaudits but his form looks very weak in contrast to Fingal Bay. Simonsig is very highly regarded by his stable but needs to show a lot more than his flat wins and hurdle win on his seasonal reappearance, which consisted of very exposed and limited animals.

With all the talk being about the top two in the betting, one that has slipped the radar is the Alan Potts owned Sizing Symphony. He looks a very talented prospect and his recent Cheltenham form has been franked in recent weeks. He comes from a shrewd enough yard and the stiff galloping nature of Sandown could very well work in his favour. He may just lack a bit of toe when the screw is turned but his price of 8/1 reflects how strong the first two in the market are.

All things considered Fingal Bay looks the stand out bet to me. His form is strong with two Group 2 wins and with Simonsig making a big step up in class I think the price of 13/8 about Fingal Bay is generous. Sizing Symphony is surprisingly my main danger so I wouldn't be surprised to see him run a big one, and will have a saver on him. With rain forecasted overnight it looks like conditions will probably be good-soft which should be suitable although the stable would prefer softer. He is a good jumper and I see no reason why Dickie Johnson shouldn't have him well in contention turning for home.

Fingal Bay 4 points at 13/8 (Boylesports)

Sizing Symphony 0.5 points at 8/1 (Boylesports)

Huntey

I had planned on waiting until the final declarations before taking this but I'm worried that the price might go and with the amount of shorties I take it is essential to get the early price which I frequently miss.

13:50 Fairyhouse, Hatton's Grace Hurdle (Ante-Post)
Thousand Stars

Thousand Stars really showed his quality in the Morgiana when winning first time out and he will come on from that run still. He takes the step back up to 2m 4f which will only be beneficial and there is nothing to suggest he won't put in another gallant display here. Even though he is going against some Group 1 horses he is definitely the classiest horse in this contest.

The absence of Hurricane Fly has been a blessing for this Willie Mullins trained gelding as he is getting the opportunity to really get involved in some Group 1's and land some nice prizes for the owners. Voler La Vedette was impressive on her seasonal reappearance and I think she is the main threat to Thousand Stars. The anticipated soft ground won't be a problem for here and she is in receipt of 7lbs from the grey, but I still don't think she will be good enough to head him.

Mourad is another nice sort who won't be inconvenienced by the conditions, but probably wants further. He has a bit to find on official ratings and doesn't go overly well when fresh, but has to be respected all the same. Mikael D'Haguenet travelled well last time but emptied pretty quickly so I would expect him to improve from that run. I really hope he gets back to winning ways but couldn't back him in a Group 1 until he shows he can re-establish some of his form from his novice days.

Thousand Stars is a battle hardened grey who will give everything as always. He is very genuine, honest horse and if he gets there in one piece he has nothing to fear in this field on Sunday. Ruby will probably take the ride all going well and with the run under him and conditions to suit I expect another bold showing from a horse who just keeps progressing.

Thousand Stars 4 points at 5/4 (Boylesports)

Huntey

Huntey wrote: »

13:55 Sandown
Fingal Bay
...............................................

Hobbs apparently doesn't know quite how good this one is, if I'm out of work in time I think I'll have some cash on

patthebus

PP usually have the best odds

hawaii501

Thanks mate told two mates to lump on about Fingal Bay(thanks to you) and they backed it! Winners all round :D:D

Huntey

November Review

I only started this in mid November but the analysis will be beneficial to establish positive and negative traits and tendencies of my betting in the long run.

Total number of bets: 15
Winning bets: 5
Losing bets: 10

Total points staked: 33.1 points
Average stake: 2.2 points
Highest winning stake: 4 points at 5/2
Highest losing stake: 4 points at 9/4

Bank: 33.35 points

Profit & Loss: + 13.35 points

Return On Investment: 66.75 %

One thing blatantly obvious from the selections is how many short priced horses I back, but I have been having a good success rate with these. I had a total of 4 max stakes, with a success rate of 75% and a RoI of 134%. All of my max stakes bets have been well analysed and only for an incompetent jockey it should be a 100% sweep.

However, I would like to incorporate more bigger priced horses as they possess a more suitable risk-reward situation than having substantial bets on shorties. This will be my aim for December and hopefully I can keep picking value short priced horses with some overpriced bigger odds horses.

A solid enough start but definite improvement to be made, although I haven't been too disappointed with my selections to date.

Huntey

hawaii501 wrote: »

Thanks mate told two mates to lump on about Fingal Bay(thanks to you) and they backed it! Winners all round :D:D

Glad to hear you made some money fella but just to clarify this isn't a tips thread, only a log for my bets.
__________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

Fingal Bay (+ 6.5 points) upheld his solid form today at Sandown and battled on valiantly again to add a third Group 2 to his already impressive form. The race was very messy with the first mile being a canter, and I was worried how it would effect the strong staying Fingal Bay. Sizing Symphony (-0.5 points) was forced to take up the running on the second circuit and that put paid to his chances, with Simonsig and Fingal Bay showing how classy they are. Simonsig had a lot to prove and he did justify the hype that surrounds him. I feared the worst turning for home when Henderson's mount was travelling all over the field with many off the bridle, including the pushed along Fingal Bay. However, he found very little off the bridle and didn't seem to take to the steep finish and Dickie Johnson's mount kept at his work all the way to the line to win by about 3 lengths. He looks like the most impressive novice around so far and is still open to improvement, a potentially quality stayer in the making. All the money came for him aswell and he went off odds on at 4/5, giving me a decent start for December.

Unfortunately Thousand Stars (- 4 points) was pulled from the race so I forfeited a max stake there. Really should have followed my initial advice but that's how the break goes sometimes though.

Bank: 35.35 points (+15.35 points)

hawaii501

Huntey wrote: »

Glad to hear you made some money fella but just to clarify this isn't a tips thread, only a log for my bets.

Blame the well-detailed write-up, that convinced me:p:p

Huntey

12:35 Aintree
Reindeer Dippin

This 2m 4f competitive handicap looks an open affair but I think the Donald McCain trained Reindeer Dippin has the ability to get involved here. This 9 year old gelding carries 10-13 tomorrow and with the hard-working Jason Maguire aboard I think he is worth a risk at the odds.

He finished off the year in style last year running in a very credible second in a handicap at Aintree to Russian War, who is now running off a mark of 149. His seasonal reappearance this year was very average to say the least, but he is a tiny horse and with him carrying top weight of 11-12 I can forgive him that run. Last time out he ran over an uncomfortable trip of 3 miles which he just doesn't stay, but it was a very decent effort all the same. He travelled very well and lost a couple of lengths when he was squeezed out when the race started to heat up, but he faded tamely in the straight. Tomorrows trip of 2m 4f is ideal and he won't be hampered by the ground conditions at all.

Featherbed Lane is the favourite tomorrow and I don't think he warrants such support, he beat Decoy last time out but Reindeer Dippin put Decoy away by 15l over testing ground last February. Wyse Hill Teabags is a big danger tomorrow, and although he finished behind my selection at Aintree he struggled to get a clear run and met a bit of trouble. His price of 9/2 is fair but the race times today suggest the ground is slower than good-soft and I don't think he wants to feel his feet too much. Spirit of Adjisa is the class horse of the race going by his impressive run at Punchestown last May. His class may shine through here but I can't have him with top weight on his seasonal reappearance. Palace Jester is another who won well last time and at 6 he has a bit of scope to improve.

Reindeer Dippin is 9 now and probably won't improve that much but I do think he is capable of running off a higher mark than 132. He is a decent jumper prone to the odd mistake but his ability to travel well may be an advantage over what seems to be a testing enough surface. With this being an open enough contest and him suited by conditions I wouldn't discount him if he runs to his mark. I took the tens earlier which are still around but I will settle for a clear positive run tomorrow in this hotly contested affair.

Reindeer Dippin 1 point at 10/1 (Boylesports)

Huntey

15:05 Sandown
Wishfull Thinking

This Tingle Creek is a trappy looking race but even though Wishfull Thinking is a skinny enough price I don't think his chances are as slim as people suggest. I am a big believer of solid form with horses so this selection may be a bit hypocritical as Wishfull Thinking has never even raced over 2 miles before, so he is very unexposed in this contest.

The thing that draws me towards this Philip Hobbs gelding is his style of running, and how effective that will be on this stiff galloping track. Wishfull Thinking was a massive improver last season, with his jumping really looking that of a Group 1 chaser. He is a keen sort who likes to bowl along and that is a very effective style at Sandown. Dickie Johnson will make this a truly run race and I think that could be the undoing of many of these who he opposes. A massive question mark is has he the speed to go 2 miles, and Hobbs has been very bullish that he won't be outpaced. The truth is that is probably an educated guess and nobody will know until tomorrow. However, if Wishfull Thinking is going to be able to contend with the two milers than there is no better race than the Tingle Creek, where front running prominent jumpers are hard to peg back.

No doubt that Sizing Europe is streets ahead on the ratings here, but his inconsistency really makes him hard to support even at a fair enough price of 7/4. The stiff track at Sandown will help but he really did have a gruelling race last time which very well could have bottomed the horse. He isn't a 3 mile horse and the demands of Alan Potts are really straining this horses abilities, which is madness considering he has one of the best 2 mile festival horses around. This race seems like a second thought and I'm not sure will 4 weeks be enough for him to fully recover. He excels off a strong gallop but he hasn't show anything away from Cheltenham to suggest he will show his top form tomorrow. If Sizing Europe can run close to his mark he will be too good, but he is so inconsistent it is very possible he will run well below it. Wishfull Thinking could very well set it up for him but I am happy to take the chance all the same.

Kauto Stone is a very unknown type due to his French form but on all accounts he needs to run to a higher mark to get involved here. The ground should be suitable but I would like to see some high class form over this side before I could support him. I can't help but think that his price of 3/1 is down to him being half brother to the king as his good form in France can't be constructively compared. I mentioned this the other day aswell that those backing him because of his pedigree need to be aware that it isn't all classy types, as seen with his full brother Kauto Relko. It could very well be soft ground but I think he would prefer a bog and hasn't raced over a stiff track yet. No doubt Nicholls is the master of this race and at the same time Kauto Stone could be anything, so I am cautiously opposing him here.

I'msingingtheblues isn't up to this standard and needs better ground, and although Gauvain will be suited to the conditions he is too slow a jumper which will be critical over these sharp, difficult fences. Cornas is a totally exposed sort but could run a big race into a place if others don't run to form.

Wishfull Thinking showed his best form at the tail end of last season when he put in a solid performance in the Jewson coming 2nd to Noble Prince. He then went on to win a Group 2 at Aintree beating Medermit by 10l, who has decent enough form over 2 miles even though he needs further. This 8 year old gelding than gave 13lbs to Blazing Tempo at Punchestown and put in a flawless round of jumping to win impressively. People have suggested that form flattered him due to his Paddy Power performance, but I was actually impressed by him 3 weeks ago. He went off at a suicidal pace and once he was headed by Great Endeavour in the last 4f or so he wasn't given a hard race. He finished a well beaten sixth but he was giving a minimal of 17lbs to the five that finished in front of him. It was a minefield of a race and expecting him to win on his seasonal reappearance may have been a little too much. He will come on from that run and I really think that his front running sharp jumping is ideal for this. The ground does seems a little softer than good to soft based on today's racing but the chase track is a little better ground anyway. There is so many variables to take account of and a lot of horses have questions to answer so it is a tentative selection.

Wishfull Thinking 2 points at 3/1 (PaddyPower)

Huntey

12:50 Fairyhouse
Mikael D'Haguenet

This race had me initially staying away as it seems crazy having a bet on Mikael D'Haguenet since his demise, but at the same time this price is an insult with only one strong contender imo among a bunch of 130/140 rated hurdlers.

It was quite sad to see how uninterested and poorly Mikael D'Haguenet was performing last season over fences. The horse had no confidence and just didn't resemble anything about the high class novice hurdler that many felt could be very special. Hopefully his seasonal reappearance will have brought him on mentally and physically although this is a serious drop in class. It wasn't a bad effort last time out when he travelled alright but emptied badly coming to the last. It was alarming that when Townend asked him for a big one two out he hesitated and just popped it, and didn't jump the last greatly either but it was a decent enough effort all things considered. He is dropped back to 2 miles tomorrow and he won't be too hampered by the conditions.

New Phase looks a decent enough sort and won impressively last time but he didn't face much. Kempes needs an extra 6f minimum and Psycho was dropped 13lbs for his performance, so it really wasn't much to write home about. Mikael D'Haguenet is in receipt of 10 lbs from Jack Cool and although he put in a decent performance in the Greatwood I am happy to leave him well alone. Head of the Posse needs further and I wouldn't fancy him on his reappearance, with the rest being mid 130 rated animals who shouldn't be able to get near the favourite in this contest.

Mikael D'Haguenet travels very well and I'm hoping he can draw the sting out of any challengers, although I would be surprised if anything came to him apart from New Phase who looks progressive. I really hope the horse wins for his own sake, would be bitterly disappointing if a couple of average animals could put him away. I'm going for a max stake here and hoping for a rejuvenated performance from Mikael D'Haguenet showing these ponies who is top dog.

Mikael D'Haguenet 4 points win at 6/4 (PaddyPower)

New Phase 1 point win at 4/1 (PaddyPower)

NaiveMelodies

unlucky with Dippin hunty, well done with mikael, very classy winner!!

Huntey

Huntey wrote: »

..................

One thing blatantly obvious from the selections is how many short priced horses I back, but I have been having a good success rate with these. I had a total of 4 max stakes, with a success rate of 75% and a RoI of 134%. All of my max stakes bets have been well analysed and only for an incompetent jockey it should be a 100% sweep. ................

And also the price you have taken has been a good bit over SP so you have the chunk of value before the off
Well done on MH earlier too, I love your logic when picking them

Huntey

Reindeer Dippin (-1 point) was a strong mover in the market going off 5/1, and that was all the signs that my bet was toast. He travelled very well as I expected but found nothing off the bridle and was soundly beaten second. I totally underestimated the winner who looks like he is better than this class. A positive run all the same and a decent enough selection.

Mikael D'Haguenet (+6 points) really did look a different horse today and went off a more appropriate evens favourite. He beat a couple of average animals but he looked more confident in himself and his jumping was more fluid. New Phase (-1 point) was supported into 5/2 but couldn't handle the pace and his form from last time was weak enough as I expected. My heart missed a beat when Head of the Posse headed Mikael D'Haguenet at the last but Townend cheekily shifted him up the inside to win it hard on the bridle. It was class to see him turning onto the straight powering along with everything bar Head of the Posse off the bridle aswell. Delighted he won and even though it was against a poor field it is all little steps trying to build him back up.

Wishfull Thinking (-2 points) was given a braindead ride by Dickie Johnson but I don't think it would have mattered anyway. He jumped well but faded when they were taking the turn for home. People are suggesting there may be something wrong with the horse but I'm not convinced, things just haven't gone his way so far this season. Sizing Europe had the race set up for him off a strong gallop but he showed his class and kept up the prestige of the Tingle Creek. I cautiously opposed Kauto Stone and he put in a gallant effort over an unsuitable trip. Wishfull Thinking was a pretty poor selection on my part anyway, it wasn't only Dickie Johnson who had a rush of blood to the head.

A pretty underwhelming profitable day but I will uphold something for future reference, never bet against a horse who has a stone on the field!

Bank: 37.35 (+17.35)

Huntey

Huntey wrote: »

.............. never bet against a horse who has a stone on the field!..............

In fairness you don't make a habit of it
Every artist must let their creative side out from time to time :P

Huntey

RoverJames wrote: »

In fairness you don't make a habit of it
Every artist must let their creative side out from time to time :P

I wouldn't want to make a habit out it :pac:

Hindsight is 20/20 but that was a pretty brutal pick on face value anyway. Not to worry, going for a raid on some shorties tomorrow

Huntey

13:50 Fairyhouse
Voler La Vedette

I have never really taken to this Colm Murphy trained mare but that doesn't take away from the quality animal that she is. This Hatton's Grace is quite competitive but I'm hoping that tomorrow will bring that well deserved Group 1 for connections that she hasn't yet acquired.

Voler La Vedette's form last season as a 6 year old was very solid, with some gallant displays from her only to fall short against some top Group 1 animals. She ran in this race last year and battled on to run in a respectable 3rd by 3 lengths to the phenomenal Hurricane Fly. She was sent over 2 miles last January in a group 1 and she just found the whole thing a little bit quick, but wasn't disgraced by any means. Voler La Vedette's first group 2 came when she beat Rigour Back Bob last February over 2m 5f, and another quickly followed when she battled back at Fairyhouse to beat Blackstairmountain. Blackstairmountain really should have won that day and just emptied when he hit the front, but conditions weren't ideal for this 7 year old mare with the ground being on the quick side. She was sent out next time to tackle the wonder mare Quevega but despite it being a 3 mile contest she put up a decent showing.

Voler La Vedette had a nice seasonal reappearance this season when she ran out a 3l winner of the Lismullen Hurdle. That wasn't a hard race by any means and both trainer and jockey feel she definitely has the scope to improve from that run. Andrew Lynch takes the reins tomorrow and he is 3/4 with the mare, his only defeat coming in this race last year.

Mourad is the current favourite for tomorrow and a horse who has to be respected on all accounts. He is a very versatile sort and the trip and ground shouldn't be a problem tomorrow. On form I think he is a better horse and will have another good season, but he doesn't go well fresh. He was sent out in the Hatton's Grace first time last season and looked to be a danger before he just tired in the last furlong, enabling Voler La Vedette to pip him into third. I also think that he prefers 3 miles, and with the run under this tough battling mare I think this is the race to catch him. He is a progressive type and there really is very little to chose between the form, but with Voler La Vedette in receipt of 7lbs from him I am happy to oppose him tomorrow.

The Real Article is another progressive gelding who hasn't run a bad race yet, but he really needs to prove himself over this trip at the top end of the table. Conditions won't hamper him either but I just think that 7lbs is a big give for a horse who is going against quality opposition. Final Approach isn't a bad sort but he is a bit shy of this class.

It is hotly contested affair with little between them but with the 7lbs allowance and a run under her I am confident of a bold showing from Voler La Vedette. Mourad will put it up to her and won't be far away in the finish but his lack of fitness may just become a factor in the dying stages as it has done in many of his other seasonal reappearances. Murphy thinks the mare has every chance tomorrow and with solid C&D form behind her aswell she has a good opportunity to land that illustrious Group 1. The trip is ideal as 2 miles is a little on the quick side in the top bracket and she doesn't really get three miles. She is a very honest type and I know she will give me a decent chance to add some more coins to the kitty.

Voler La Vedette 2 points at 2/1 (William Hill)

Huntey

13:20 Fairyhouse
First Lieutenant

This Mouse Morris trained chestnut gelding looks like a stand out bet to me in the Drinmore. He has taken to the chase game well enough and is a progressive 6 year old who should have too much for this field.

First Lieutenant was a Group 1 winning hurdler who won the Neptune last March at Cheltenham, beating the impressive Rock on Ruby. This Gigginstown horse also has a win against the well thought of Zaidpour and ran decently at Punchestown when beaten by Spirit of Adjisa. His seasonal appearance and first time over fences was an encouraging run despite him hitting the last fence very hard. Despite coming on from that run he was beaten by a nose next time in Cork by De Valera, but the finishing post caught him that day as he was battling back all the way to the wire. A change of tactics was ordered and he was settled better next time in Cork again, and he comfortably reversed form with De Valera. First Lieutenant will enjoy the trip and the ground shouldn't hinder him, although his only run at Fairyhouse over hurdles wasn't inspiring. He is a game horse who goes to work when asked, and I can see him grinding out another strong performance tomorrow.

I am not convinced about Bog Warrior yet, whose current price of 7/4 is absurd. He is a lightly raced seven year old whose only blemish is a fall in a maiden hurdle last February. He beat Flemenstar impressively on his first outing this season over fences, who has ran out a 20 length winner last week. However, he beat a 120 rated chaser that day who is very exposed, so the form looks sceptical to me. Bog Warrior seems a decent animal but his chase form leaves a lot to be desired. Ruby is on board tomorrow but his horse has to run to a higher mark to get competitive here in my opinion.

Paul Nolan's Alpha Ridge looks the big danger to me. He was only beaten 3 lengths by First Lieutenant at Cork last time out which was a good effort. That was his seasonal debut and he may very well come on for that run so I think he could be the dark horse of the race. Shinrock Paddy and Rivage D'or aren't bad animals but they would need to find a couple of pounds on the ratings here.

Davy Russell has chosen to ride First Lieutenant tomorrow and I'm hoping he will give his mount every chance, as he is prone to riding a stinker at times. I suspect the horse will be settled early and produced late to challenge, and hopefully his strong finishing style will pressure this field. On known form he is better than this bunch and I think he will be the one there all keeping an eye on when the screw is turned. A very bullish max bet here, which could look foolish should Ruby get a tune out of his mount.

First Lieutenant 4 points at 6/4 (William Hill)

Alpha Ridge 0.5 points at 9/1 (William Hill)

Huntey

First Lieutenant (-4 points) was slightly shortened into 5/4 but he just never got going today. He didn't jump fluently throughout and put paid to his chances when he clouted a fence down the back. Davy Russell did extremely well to stay on but his chance was over and he was pulled up on the straight, with reports confirming he broke a blood vessel. Bog Warrior was very impressive and he is well up to this mark but I would have liked to see a stronger contest all the same. Alpha Ridge (-0.5 points) jumped brutally and was never in touch.

Voler Le Vedette (+4 points) finally got her deserved Group 1 and actually did it a lot more cosily than I expected. I thought she was going to get done for pace when they turned for home but once Andrew Lynch pulled her wide she scooted past the field to win it well. He gave her a peach of a ride and over these conditions she looks like she could be even better this year. Mourad was a bit flat at the business end of things as I thought he might and will come on from the run.

Bank: 36.85 (+16.85)

Huntey

1:10 Plumpton
Indian Daudaie

Paul Nicholls makes the trip to Plumpton tomorrow with this being his only runner in a competitive 2m 4f novice chase. Indian Daudaie disappointed on his reappearance 16 days ago when he was sent off 5/2 favourite in a class 2 handicap hurdle. Nicholls was shocked at how poor he was that day and with the horse in seemingly good health he goes over timber for the first time tomorrow. That was his seasonal reappearance and I think he will benefit from that run and could put in a bold showing tomorrow.

The two market leaders are Gift of Dgab and Invictus who are two promising chasers. However, Indian Daudaie gets a stone from both of them tomorrow and if he takes to the fences well he could be a big danger. The trip should be fine and he has won on testing ground before so I'm hoping the projected soft going won't hinder him.

Maringo Bay is another nice type who will relish conditions and has solid form over hurdles with his penultimate race being a 9l win over Teaforthree, who was an impressive chase winner yesterday at Chepstow. Maringo Bay was well beaten by Spirit Son last time out in April, but the ground was too quick that day. He is a nice price but I'm going to oppose him tomorrow as he didn't shape well on his reappearance last season.

Indian Daudaie is an unexposed four year old who has scope for improvement, and I think he has a decent chance here with a run under him. Connections rank this gelding very highly so if he is suited by conditions he should have the ability to get competitive under the very capable Noel Fehily.

Indian Daudaie 2 point win at 10/3 (William Hill)

Huntey

Indian Daudaie performed relatively decently with this being his first stint chasing. The winner Invictus looks a very classy sort who won it on the bridle, and my selection was a well beaten 4th. However, there was only 3 to 4 lengths between the fourth and second and his jumping was good apart from landing flat footed a couple of times. Maringo Bay was the one I will take out of the race, he jumped fantastically and travelled well but was just caught for toe down the straight. He will come on from that run and definitely has the ability to go close in a contest soon enough.

I have found the form tedious enough to go through the last few days so will hopefully get back on track on this weekend.

Bank: 34.85 points (+14.85)

Huntey

15:05 Cheltenham, Saturday December 10th
Grandouet

I have already given a glowing reference of the Nicky Henderson trained Grandouet and I think he has the scope to be a major threat in this competitive renewal of the Bula/International hurdle.

This French speedster won very well last time at Haydock when he beat some decent animals in Domtaline and Marsh Warbler without even spitting the bit. He was much more settled that day and jinked through the field with ease when McCoy pushed the button to record an easy victory for connections. This gelding is a flat track bully, and that is the one major concern I have about him keeping up his impressive form over this testing course. On two previous occasions Grandouet has made the trip to Cheltenham, and has failed to take to the hill on both occasions. Most notably he was travelling all over the field in the Triumph in March only to falter when he hit the rising ground. However, this progressive 4 year old may well have matured enough to handle the conditions better this time. Grandouet would have been a shoe in for the Christmas Hurdle at Kempton, but Nicky Henderson wants to find out could he have a potential major player in the Champion Hurdle. On all known form it is very possible he won't take to the course again, but he has so much scope and potential that I am willing to keep the confidence with this selection.

Menorah, the reigning champion is surprisingly sent back over hurdles to give connections the chance of landing this prize once more. Twelve months ago Menorah battled on well to win this race by a neck on his seasonal reappearance. He followed up that win with an impressive 4l win over the Colin Tizzard trained Cue Card, and his form looked rock solid. However, he failed to go with the pace in the Champion Hurdle in March and that's when he started to look a little exposed. It seemed to me like he lacked a bit of toe over genuine good ground, and that was confirmed when he was soundly beaten by Hurricane Fly again at Puchestown by 15 lengths. He was sent chasing this year and would have won a novice chase only for Dickie Johnson to unseat, and this switch back to hurdles is a little strange. Hobbs has reported that he has since had a slight problem and with good ground expected I have sided away from this 6 year old. Menorah may still have the quality to win this but I wouldn't be overly confident on this occasion, although he loves battling up the hill and if the ground eases he will have a big chance.

Overturn is another quality animal who lines up here but I would be scepticle about whether he will go off or not. He was supposed to be heading for a break but as he is in good form McCain has given him an entry for this. Overturn beat the inconsistent Binocular last time after an impressive win at Ascot, and he is definitely a horse that I wouldn't write off. His strong galloping style has worked well recently but I just don't think he will be able to slip the field here with so much quality in behind. He is a very honest type though and will ensure a decent gallop, which may actually set the race up for something in behind to scoot past him up the rising ground to the finish.

Brampour is the current Greatwood winner, and a horse who has looked a totally different animal this season. His win last time out was impressive as he finished very strongly up the hill enabling the capable Harry Derham to get his first major jump honours. This Nicholls trained gelding is also a progressive 4 year old with room for improvement, but I think he might just lack that bit of class to win this. There is a couple of other decent animals in this aswell, some who are overpriced, but many at the top of the market would have to run well below their mark for them to get heavily involved.

Cheltenham has had an exceptional dry spell over the last few weeks, with the current going that of good with firm in places. With only 3mm expected the course is being watered for this 2m 1f Group 2 contest, and the good ground expected will suit my selection. Grandouet definitely has a major question mark to answer in relation to the hill, and he could very well just not perform over the conditions once again. However, I have great confidence in this young hurdler becoming a top quality horse and I hope he has matured enough to show he isn't just a flat track specialist. The big danger has to be Menorah but you could make a decent claim for any of the leading four in the market. No jockey booked yet but it will probably be Barry Geraghty who definitely has the ability and experience to give his mount every chance. Grandouet carries 11-4 and is in receipt of 4lbs from Overturn and Menorah, but it may mean little if he doesn't improve his form on this undulating track. I have a suspicion that Overturn will be pulled so have decided to take the Ante-post here. Allez les Francais!

Grandouet 3 points win at 3/1 (Paddy Power)

Huntey

14:30 Cheltenham, Saturday December 10th
Medermit

This doesn't seem like an overly strong race with my main fancy Quel Esprit unlikely to travel, so I'm going for a small play on Medermit. This french gelding is a type who just lacks the toe for two miles at the top level, and this trip of 2m 5f will suit better. He is relatively unexposed over this trip and if Choc gets him into a good rhythm of jumping he has the ability to go close.

I took this bet thinking this Alan King grey was running off 11-1, but I made the school boy error of not factoring in the rise since Poquelin was pulled. Woolcoombe Folly is the pig left in to take top weight with Medermit running off a difficult enough 11-5. This 7 year old has sometimes failed to finish off his races but on his first outing over 2m 5f he came 2nd last January at Cheltenham, and although it wasn't inspiring it was a decent attempt. His next attempt over this trip came against Captain Chris, and he notched up very impressive win to land a Group 1.

On his seasonal reappearance this year Medermit had a lot of luck as the strong finishing Captain Chris unseated when powering home, and Choc added another Group 2 prize for connections. His twelve length beating by Master Minded 3 weeks ago wasn't a bad effort considering he was 20lbs behind on the ratings, and he isn't facing anything with that much class in this handicap chase. Medermit is entered in a race on Thursday aswell but King said this is the main plan and he could turn out to be a bit of value at the prices. As with all handicaps something could emerge from the trees but I give this grey a fair chance if he is in good nick.

Medermit 1.5 points win at 14/1 (William Hill)

Huntey

14:00 Huntingdon
Somersby

Henrietta Knight has won the Peterborough Chase on eight previous occasions, and has another leading contender in this field tomorrow. Somersby is a very consistent horse who has just failed to get his head in front against top class opposition. This 7 year old gelding is going into this competitive field on the back of some encouraging form this season, and if he performs to his mark here he will be very difficult to beat.

Even though Somersby has run in now fewer than 11 graded contests, he has a poor record of only one group 2 win. However, many of those races have been over inadequate trips and all the same he has showed some great courage to battle on into the places against some top group 1 horses. His seasonal reappearance was a straightforward win over the one paced Aiteenthirtythree, but he jumped impeccably and could have won it by more had he wanted. His last outing was in the Amlin chase, and he put up a bold performance only to succumb to the classy Master Minded by 3 lengths. He hit the front very soon that day and was travelling brilliantly until he smashed a fence three out and couldn't hold out.

The Nightingale is a very interesting runner tomorrow for Paul Nicholls who is still a little unexposed over the conditions. He had a solid seasonal reappearance when travelling well only to fade over the unsuitable 3 mile trip at Down Royal after putting in a decent round of jumping. On that form the trip tomorrow is probably ideal but I think he might want a little extra cut in the ground. Somersby has form over this 8 year old when they met at the Aintree festival in 2010, but a line can be put through that run as both horses were probably a little over the top. The Nightingale actually is rated off a 1lb higher mark, but with him preferring more cut in the ground and conceding 4lbs he will have a tough task of turning over the consistent Somersby.

Gauvain is another danger tomorrow but he would also want the ground softer and with a heavy fall in the Tingle Creek the other day I am going to oppose him here. He hasn't performed anywhere near Somersby's level to date and his form against Woolcombe Folly is nothing special, because that horse is quite simply a pig. Mr. Moonshine has won his last two races impressively but he is stepping up in competition aswell, although he could run a big race. The reigning champion Tartak also has to concede 4lbs tomorrow to Henrietta's mount and he just lack the quality to win this again with it being a competitive renewal.

Tomorrows trip of 2m 4f is a better trip for Somersby but realistically the horse has shaped as if he wants 3 miles. Although this Grade 2 is a competitive affair the form of my selection is a lot stronger than anything in the field and I can't see him being caught for toe here either. The King George was the initial target for connections but they still aren't certain due to it looking like a hotly contested line-up. This is a decent prep race all the same and I think it would be a major surprise if Somersby doesn't have enough quality to see off the field here. Dominic Elsworth has given this horse every chance in his two outings so far this season and I'm hoping for another confident ride again. The going of good-soft will be fine and if he puts in a prominent round of jumping he could have them all it turning for home. I was watching the 15/8 earlier green-eyed as I don't have a VC account, but 13/8 seems like a fair enough price anyway.

Somersby 4 points win at 13/8 (William Hill)

NaiveMelodies

Asked for advice in the fancies thread before seeing this, I'll be on somersby too.

Huntey

Good luck Steve, he has been running well so far this season and definitely the one they have to beat on the formbooks.

Huntey

13:10 Ludlow
Darna

Kim Bailey is in cracking form at the minute and this 5 year old novice chaser has a decent chance to go well here in this 2 mile handicap chase. Darna always looked a chaser over hurdlers and even though he won fortunately last time out he put in an impressive first attempt over fences. This horse settled really well and jumped impeccably to instil confidence in connections that he has the ability to land a couple of more wins at this level. The two miles and good ground will suit perfectly and his fluid prominent jumping could put those around him under pressure.

The Chazer also looks a decent animal with him performing well to go down by 3 lengths to Peddler's Cross on his first outing over fences. However, he doesn't look the most fluid jumper and if gets tight a few times here he may find it difficult to reel in the strong travelling Darna. The Cockney Mackem would have beaten Edgardo Sol on his penultimate start had he got a good jump at the last, and that form does look quite good here. However, he didn't settle last time out and misjudged a fence to unseat Sam Twiston-Davis.

With Bailey's yard flying and the scope that Darna has to improve I think he could very well shape to be a decent chaser, and one who should have a good chance to go close tomorrow. He carries 11-5 tomorrow but I think he has the ability to run higher than his current mark. Missed the early price of 5's, story of my life.

Darna 2 points win at 9/2 (Boylesports)