Hunting for Money

Huntey

Hello all,

The National Hunt is back and although I'm a few weeks late to the party it is hunting season for me.

I will use this to log my bets and with a bit of luck I might win some coin to pay for my heating over the cold winter months! :pac:

I must put in the disclaimer that this isn't/nor will be a tips thread but all comments are welcome if you want to call me a shítbox anyway!

Happy hunting folks!

Bank: 20 points

Max Stake: 4 points

BEst of luck with it, I reckon 20 per cent of the bank as a max bet is a stretch, in saying that I did similar myself but wouldn't advise it.

Huntey

Thanks Rover, probably is a little high but it won't be a frequent occurrence, in saying that I could be going out on my shield with two max bets for tomorrow! :pac:
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12:15 Haydock
Grandouet

I am a big fan of this 4 year old speedster and think he could turn into a quality horse over the course of the season. He had the beating of Zarkander at Aintree when he was brought down at the last in April but made amends with a 9 length Group 1 success at Punchestown in May.

He made his seasonal reappearance two weeks ago at Wincanton, and was unlucky when he stepped to soon into a hurdle when travelling magnificently. He was a little lit up that day which was expected from this boisterous French colt but I think that run will settle him a little better for tomorrow.

The big danger seems to be Domtaline, who won impressively on his reappearance from a 10 month lay off when he won by 9 lengths last time out although his jumping was very sketchy at times. There is a form line to be drawn between the two although it is a little inconclusive. At Wetherby last October Grandouet was very keen and bolted into the lead too soon at a fast pace that Domtaline couldn't live with and faded badly, as did Grandouet who came home 5th. Last December at Newbury they went at it again, with Grandouet winning well under AP after Domtaline fell just when the race started to heat up entering the straight. You could really draw a line through both races but it doesn't take away from the fact that Grandouet has excelled since then. Domtaline is a lightly raced horse still and probably has a good bit of scope for improvement, but he will need to be a very classy horse to win tomorrow even though he is in receipt of 8lbs. I'm a big believer in beating quality opposition so I am happy taking the Nicky Henderson's French colt at the short price. Marsh Warbler battled on valiantly to win a 1 & 1/2 mile contest on the AW on his seasonal reappearance but I don't think he will be able to deal with the speed in this race.

The course and ground shouldn't hinder Grandouet and with the run under him there won't be any excuses on the outcome of this race tomorrow. Ap takes the ride as Barry Geraghty is at Ascot so hopefully he will keep Grandouet up to his work, only worry would be if he hits the front to soon or has lost a bit of confidence since his fall.

First bet is going to be a max stake but best price is evens with Ladbrokes.

Grandouet 4 points at 10/11 (Boylesports)

Huntey

I'm gutted Captain Chris isn't running in this but have found another max stake to go with.

14:10 Ascot
Master Minded

Even though it seems an age since Master Minded was hacking up in 09 he is still only an 8 year old, and not over the hill just yet. His seasonal reappearance was simply brutal but there can be excuses made for it. Nicholls was preparing him for this and has said he made a bad judgement in sending him off in the Old Roan Chase, and he also gave a massive 10lbs to Alberta's Run. It was a mess of a race with only three runners so I can't take the form as being a true showing of this 8 year old.

Somersby is the biggest danger for me and won well enough on his reappearance. He probably wants a little bit more than 2m 3f but Ascot is a stiff course so he should take to it well enough. He gets 4lbs from the favourite and usually puts in a solid round of jumping, but I am wary of supporting a horse who hasn't won many at the top level.

Medermit won at Exeter when Captain Chris probably was going to get him only for Dickie Johnson to test out his skydiving skills at the last. That race doesn't look as competitive now with Ghizao looking out of sorts and Cornas running in second, who is a very exposed horse. Khalahari King looks dangerous with a 10lbs swing from Master Minded but he won't be given a hard ride and Fredy has said this isn't one of his main aims, but I don't know what he is up to half the time.

He carries top weight of 11-11 tomorrow but his run at Aintree will stand to him fitness wise and I think he is still the best horse in this race. Definite improvement required from his last race but he hasn't gone on a streak of bad runs and hopefully that is a trend that will keep going tomorrow.

Master Minded 4 points at 7/4 (William Hill)

Huntey

14:30 Haydock
Quartz De Thaix

Probably throwing away a few pennies here in this competitive three mile handicap but I am opting for Quartz De Thaix.

This Venetia Williams runner had a progressive 2011 season, with a credible 7th at Cheltenham when going down to Holmwood Legend by 16l. This gelding beat Son of Flicka on his first start last year, which looks impressive now considering he only went down a length to Sir Des Champs at the festival who is a horse I rate very highly. This season hasn't shown the same level of progression with Quartz De Thaix being pulled up on his seasonal reappearance and went down to The Knoxs by 34 lengths last time out when he ran in a well beaten 4th. He carries 11-3 tomorrow which is ok, but I am hoping he may recapture some of his 2011 form and put up a big performance in this. I don't think he has too much to find on the market leaders but I will settle for a nice solid run.

Aidan Coleman takes the ride in this super competitive race but I'm going to have a small ratio bet.

Quartz De Thaix .4 points win at 28/1 (Betfair), .2 points place at 11/2 (Betfair)

Huntey

3:05 Haydock

Time For Rupert

Wasn't going to bet in this race but just can't get away from TFR, even though his trainer has said it is a "pipe dream" of him turning over Long Run. Long Run is undoubtedly the best horse in this field and this course will suit him down to the ground. However, if he does need the run from this I feel TFR will provide a strong test.

TFR has the course and distance against him here but I think his seasonal reappearance was a credible run. He needs to find a bit on the victor Weird Al but with him having shed a couple of kilos from that run I would need another strong run from Weird Al to be convinced he is a better horse. With Nacarat out it changes the race as TFR may be forced to take up the pace to make it a truly run race. Diamond Harry is another alternative but he could set it up for Long Run to scoot home if it isn't a strong pace. TFR probably isn't as classy as Long Run but he never gives up, and that is something that could really test Long Run on his first outing.

Diamond Harry goes well fresh but he is too fragile for me to put any confidence behind him. I think TFR can reverse form with Weird Al with the run under him and the disparity in prices seems big enough to take a chance with him.

I wouldn't back Kauto because he doesn't seem to have a finishing kick anymore, his Punchestown run wasn't a reflection of where he is as it was too soon after the Gold Cup but I still think his time has passed.

9/1 seems fair enough and hopefully I will get a good run for my money if he can burn the legs off Long Run, but I wouldn't be surprised if Long Run hacked up either.

Time For Rupert 1.4 points win at 9/1, .6 points place at 5/2

Huntey

Grandouet (+ 3.45) is an absolute superstar and won this very well apart from dragging his legs through the last. Only main concern with him in the long run is that he doesn't seem to quite get up the hill at Cheltenham so I resisted taking 20's for the Champion Hurdle which is now trading at a low of 12's.
I would take a guess that he will be going to Kempton for the Christmas Hurdle and that looks like a race suited for him.

Master Minded (+ 8 points) put in a cracking round of jumping which made a difference from last time. Thought Somersby was going to sneak away when he hit the front down the back but the short trip caught him for toe in the last few furlongs. A lovely ride from Daryl Jacobs aswell and the drift to 2-1 was appreciated.

Quartz De Thaix (- 0.6 points) was horrific and never got going, he made a bad few blunders over the first few fences and never looked interested. Was the first to be pulled up and couldn't have picked worse if I tried.

I was somewhat surprised at how exposed Time For Rupert (- 2.0 points) was today. Conditions weren't favourable but he seemed stones behind the others on that form. He was ridden prominently as expected but was just caught for toe badly when the race was turned up a notch. Could possibly be overrated so I will leave him alone until he puts in a quality performance that suggests he is up to this level.

Bank: 28.85 points (+ 8.85)

Well done , very decent first day.

Huntey

Cheers Rover.
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14:10 Punchestown
Thousand Stars

I'm not a fan of backing horses that haven't had a run but Thousand Stars is one of the gamest horses around. He is a fabulous horse who would have a few more Group 1 wins but for quality horses such as Hurricane Fly and Oscar Whisky denying him. I have him well ahead of the field here on ratings and the only reason he isn't shorter in the betting is because it is his seasonal reappearance. He may want further aswell but he rarely runs a bad race and nothing seems to faze him.

I'm not convinced with Pittoni just yet, as just like Domtaline today, he needs to prove himself against top quality opposition before I could take the price about him. He was impressive last time but definitely needs to improve a couple of pounds even for this weak Group 1.

Oscars Well will come on from his run last time but again he might just lack a little bit of toe when the screw is turned. He is a nice sort but again I think improvement is needed here if he is going to turn over Thousand Stars.

Mullins' horses seem to be in good form and I'm hoping this French grey will be forward enough to land the prize here. Whatever the outcome I know I will get a good run for my coin here.

Thousand Stars 2 points at 2/1 (William Hill)

Was looking at him earlier for a cash bet tomorrow, at least with the 2/1 price there's value if he's not race fit as such, I had €40 on LongRun today :rolleyes:

Best of luck with it, I'm a great believer in backing horses who are rated the best in the race and not fav

Huntey

If he had any sort of run into him it would be a max bet but I like to be cautious with seasonal reappearances.

Not to worry with Long Run, will go off at a nice price next time where I would think he will comfortably reverse form with Kauto. It may not look it but it was a decent effort considering he was off the bridle 7f from home. With many of the others exposed today I can't see anything that he would be wary of taking on in the King George.

Indeed, off topic but close home when if was staying on I thought he was going to pass KS.

Huntey

Thousand Stars (+4 points) was the class horse in the race on ratings and was backed off the charts into 5/4. He led from pillar to post where many a horse would have idled but he was very honest again today. Once he got a shake of the reins down the straight he grabbed a few lengths and had them all at it.

Pittoni seems average enough and Oscars Well probably needs more than 2 miles.

Bank: 32.85 points (+12.85)

Huntey

3:00 Ffos Las
Dantari

I'm not a fan of midweek racing but I'm going to side with the well raced 6 year old Dantari in this 2m 6f handicap. His seasonal reappearance was poor enough when he came 13th by around 25l to Decoy, who is a decent enough animal all the same. I'm hoping he will come on for that run because his form from last season is very solid. He ran in some competitive races last season going down to Dynaste, Kilcrea Kim, Overturn and Any Given Day who have all run big races over the weekend.

Always Waining is another that caught my eye at the prices and he may run a big race aswell. Dantari may prefer the ground a little better but he has a nice weight of 10-13 and is definitely capable of improving from his first run. He has dropped in the ratings and needs to find a bit here but I think he is well capable of getting heavily involved.

Dantari 1.2 points win at 8/1 (Paddy Power), .8 points place at 6/4 (Betfair)

Just out of curiousity why not go .8 ew and another .4 win with PP ? Even if its a fifth of the 8 to 1 it is better than the 6 to 4 on betfair

Huntey

RoverJames wrote: »

Just out of curiousity why not go .8 ew and another .4 win with PP ? Even if its a fifth of the 8 to 1 it is better than the 6 to 4 on betfair

It is slightly higher than 6/4 but there is a minimal advantage of doing it that way. I didn't even think of it tbh, ideally I would wait until the place prices would be up in the morning but I won't be available.

Something to acknowledge for future bets anyway, cheers James.

Huntey

Dantari (-2 points) was backed off the charts and went off 11/4 favourite. I was laughing with excitement at the 8/1 I had taken but the joke was on me. He ran no sort of race which was probably due to the testing nature of the ground and the distress signals were out after 1 mile. A little bit disgusted considering big money came for him but that's weekly racing for you.

Bank: 30.85 points (+10.85)

Huntey

Couple of ante-posts I took the other day for the Hennessy, will do a reasoning tomorrow.

15:10 Newbury

Wymott 1.5 points at 7/1.
Joncol 0.5 points at 14/1. (-0.5)
Muirhead 0.5 points at 25/1

13:35 Newbury
Cue Card

I don't think that Cue Card would have lived with Grands Crus lto had he had stayed on his feet but can't leave him go at the price here. Joe Tizzard is usually a big no-no for me but I'm happy for him to carry my coin with Bob's Worth seemingly under-priced imo. The flat track should favour Cue Card and I think he should be a lot closer in the betting considering he was a better hurdler and Bob's Worth hasn't even been seen over a fence yet. I don't really have a consistent rating for both yet but there probably isn't much between them, although the Henderson first string is in receipt of 7 lbs. It was a novicey mistake when Cue Card fell but his form does look solid with Silviniaco Conti and Michael Flips shaping well since they were beaten at Chepstow. Henderson's yard are flying at the minute but if Bob's Worth needs the run he will be hard pushed by Cue Card. The other two horses aren't bad animals either but 9/4 seems very generous about Cue Card.

Cue Card 4 points at 9/4 (Boylesports)

Huntey

Huntey wrote: »

..................
Joncol 0.5 points at 14/1. (-0.5)
...............

I'll be backing Joncol too, if it's softish groung
Monster of a horse.

Huntey

RoverJames wrote: »

I'll be backing Joncol too, if it's softish groung
Monster of a horse.

I have the price deducted in red already James as he is a non-runner, Nolan said he got word the ground was firmer than they would have liked. Reality is he probably couldn't be arsed making the journey over.

tut tut, with the forecast going tomorrow being g to soft thought soft ground might well be there come racetime with a bit of luck.

Cheers for the update anyway
And best of luck with Cue Card, I had mixed feelings when he fell at Chel, had a few quid on Grand Cruz but was really looking forward to the potential spectacle of the race developing.

Huntey

Huntey wrote: »

Couple of ante-posts I took the other day for the Hennessy, will do a reasoning tomorrow.

15:10 Newbury

Wymott 1.5 points at 7/1.
Joncol 0.5 points at 14/1. (-0.5)
Muirhead 0.5 points at 25/1

13:35 Newbury
Cue Card

Joe Tizzard is usually a big no-no for me

And that's the reason why. He absolutely gave it away, he couldn't ride a bicycle not to mind a horse.

Cue Card (-4 points) seemed to have the race sown up but Tizzard wanted to win on the bridle and got caught by the fast finishing Bob's Worth. Horse would be better off away from stable and jockey, bloody disgusted with that ride.

Didn't see it live, saw a re run just there, he slowed the horse for the last when there was no need to, losing what turned not to be a crucial length or two, awful to see really.

Huntey

RoverJames wrote: »

Didn't see it live, saw a re run just there, he slowed the horse for the last when there was no need to, losing what turned not to be a crucial length or two, awful to see really.

The whole thing was just very poor from Tizzard, the two amateur turnarounds in the stretch, easing the horse before the last when he should have stolen a few lengths and then he panicked and was so weak in the finish.

I knew the risk involved but to be honest I didn't expect such incompetence from him.

Bank: 26.85 points (+6.85 points)

Huntey

15:10 Newbury
Wymott

The Hennessy this year is extremely competitive where a decent claim can be made for many of these turning up. Great Endeavour is the only one in the market I would be confident of discarding as I don't think he can put in another big performance two weeks after the Paddy Power over a trip that doesn't suit.

I'm siding with the 7 year old second season chaser Wymott, who is running off a nice weight of 10-2 tomorrow. This Donald McCain trained horse is a very sound jumper and although he has dived at one or two he is very fluid when jumping at pace. The flat track will be fine for Wymott but unfortunately it looks like the ground will go against him here, and although he isn't a totally mudlark he does like to feel his feet a bit so the softer the better. His only form against this field is when he beat Wayward Prince over hurdles and he gets a 6lbs swing from him today.

Wymott has won over 3 miles 1f before, so the extra 1f won't be a problem. However he does tend to idle when he hits the front which is why it is a slight negative that the tireless Jason Maguire will be missing the ride, with Graham Lee taking the reins in his absence. Lee does have a decent enough record in stayers races so hopefully he will give the horse every chance tomorrow.

A line can be drawn through his RSA run as he had a slight fracture but the reports are he is training well at home. There are many other well handicapped horses here who will have big claims aswell but I'm hoping that his ability to stay and fluid jumping will give him a solid chance of getting heavily involved here.

Wymott 1.5 points at 7/1 (William Hill)

15:10 Newbury
Muirhead

Muirhead was once a 158 rated hurdler and he is still a little unexposed with 5 chase runs resulting in two wins and a 3rd place finish. He cantered all over the field in Limerick a few weeks back and struggled last time out when he ran in a well beaten 8th at Ascot but he should be better suited by the flat track. He carries a nice weight also of 10 - 4 and I just think he has enough scope to improve to get involved here if Noel Meade has him ready for the task.

Muirhead 0.5 points win at 25/1 (William Hill)

Huntey

14:20 Newcastle
Overturn

Binocular is the short favourite here and certainly not a horse that I would be wary of first time out. The Henderson yard are in great form but the front running Overturn gets the nod for me. He won last week at Ascot over an extended trip of 2m 4f and I'm hoping that he didn't have too much taken out of him as he would have had a harder race had Oscar Whisky not fallen at the last. He only has 1 lbs to find on official ratings and if Binocular needs the run he will be made to work here. He might want a little further than 2 miles but it should be sufficient anyway. Celestial Halo won on his seasonal reappearance but Grandouet was cantering all over him before he fell gifting him an easy win. I would have preferred had Overturn had a longer break but I'm hoping he will be the biggest danger to Binocular should he need the run. He is best priced 3/1.

Overturn 2 points at 5/2 (William Hill)

Huntey

15:45 Newbury
Osric

This Nicky Henderson 8 year old is an attractive price in this race and one I think can overcome his rating of 129. Conditions will suit tomorrow and he is nicely weighted off 10-10. On ratings he needs to find a lot off his mark amongst Fistral Beach and others but I don't think he is 16 lbs inferior than the favourite. He had a decent enough run at the festival back at March but faded when the screw was turned. His seasonal reappearance was poor but tomorrows trip should suit better and he is definitely capable of getting involved here.

Osric 1.5 points win at 11/1 (William Hill), 0.5 points place at 3.75 (William Hill)

Huntey

Wymott (-1.5 points) stayed on valiantly today and jumped very well as I expected. He just lacked a bit of toe when things heated up but he is definitely one I would like to see go to the National. He is as natural a jumper you will see and stays well, a nice prep over hurdles to keep the mark down and I don't see why he couldn't be a major player.

Muirhead (-0.5 points) ran alright aswell when he was supported in the market down to 16's. He travelled ok and then made a mistake down the back and struggled to stay with the leading group.

Joncol (-0.5 points) Non-runner.

Overturn (+ 5 points) is a very likeable horse and he gave everything again today when making all to win. Maguire gave him a peach of a ride and burned everyone off bar Binocular when they were coming into the straight. McCoy gave his mount every chance to win it but he wasn't good enough to head the hard-working Overturn, who will get a deserved break now.

The second steamer I have logged so far was Osric (-2 points), who was backed into 7/2 2nd favourite from the 11/1 I took. However, just like Dantari he wasn't able to justify the support. He seemed to find a bit off the bridle when turning into the straight but he faded badly with the front runners travelling much stronger. Hopefully one for next time again but I'd rather they drift to 100/1 and tail off then be backed off the charts and play with my heart strings.

Bank: 27. 35 points (+7.35)

Huntey

Another shortie for tomorrow...

12:45 Navan
Mount Benbulben

On first glance this looked like a no-bet race to me but I have found a big enough claim for the Gordon Elliot trained Mount Benbulben. This 6 year old gelding has really started to shape into a quality horse and if he is as good as I think he should take all the beating tomorrow.

Barry Connell bought this horse last year after he impressed in a couple of bumpers beating some nice horses including the late Lovethehigherlaw. Mullins thought the world of that horse and even though he might have wanted better ground that day he won a bumper very well at the Punchestown Festival, so his 8 length beating by Mount Benbulben has to be respected.

The soft ground will be perfect tomorrow and the trip of 2m 4f is ideal. Mount Benbulben's seasonal reappearance and hurdling debut didn't go to plan with him slipping up on the flat. He was lit up like a Christmas tree that day and fought for his head off Paul Carberry most the way round, but he was still travelling well when he went down. He won handily enough last time out over a more substantial trip and settled a bit better, winning on the bridle beating Golanbrook into second who has placed in a maiden hurdle since. His jumping was a bit novicey at times but it wasn't anything I would be too concerned about.

His two main rivals tomorrow will be Texas Jack and Rebel Fitz. Paul Carberry is claimed by Noel Meade to take the ride on Texas Jack and he won very impressively last time out winning hard on the bridle. His seasonal debut went well although he only beat a hacking horse that day who has been beaten by 35l and 17l since. The trip should suit him aswell but I have a feeling he won't want it too soft here.

Rebel Fitz has rarely run a bad race so far and with Ruby on board this Michael Winters trained gelding will make a decent claim for himself. He is unexposed over this trip and his only run over testing ground proved to be his least impressive when he ran in fourth, so I'm content to leave him be.

John Harrington has a nice enough horse in the race aswell and it is definitely the most competitive novice hurdle we have seen this side of the pond this season. Davy Condon takes the ride for Gordon Elliot with Carberry claimed for Texas Jack, and I'm hoping he will give Moun Benbulben every chance to prove how good I think he is. Missed the early price of 5/2 which is a shame but still going to have a max bet.

Mount Benbulben 4 points win at 15/8 (Paddy Power)

x PyRo

Best of luck with MB and well done with Overturn, he's a cracking animal.

Huntey

2:20 Navan

This 25 runner 3 mile handicap is a minefield but I think I have found a decent chance with the nicely handicapped progressive type Wicklow Lad.

Francis Flood was probably aiming for the Troytown as Wicklow Lad has only been seen over hurdles since he reappeared for the season. He had one good and one mediocre run but I'm sure he will definitely come on and it has kept him down to a nice mark for tomorrow. He carries 10-2 tomorrow with a 5lbs claim from the very capable Adrian Heskins. He will relish the soft ground and on his only previous race over 3m he beat Ad Idem by a comprehensive 7 lengths, who also lines up here tomorrow.

It is a very competitive line-up and there is a couple more I like but I do think that Wicklow Lad is very capable of exceeding his mark of 121, on a track that he loves going 2/2. Francis has aimed him for this and I'm happy to take the chance with him as he is probably ahead of the handicapper, has conditions to suit and a very talented claimer in Adi Heskins. Missed the early price again on this one.

Wicklow Lad 2 points win at 9/1 (Paddy Power)

Bruckey2345

Well done on mount benbulben

Huntey

15:25 Navan
Supreme Carolina

This is the most competitive mares bumper this season in Ireland but the Willie Mullins trained Supreme Carolina is one I think has the ability to deceive her odds here. She last ran at Cheltenham two weeks ago against the boys where the ground was a little bit quick, but she was given a decent ride by the claimer on board that day and it was an encouraging performance coming in a 7 length 5th.

Conditions will suit here and Patrick Mullins gets the leg back up on this mare after he had ridden her to a 1st and 2nd place finish on her previous two starts. The market leader here is Missunited, who beat Supreme Carolina by 3 lengths when they met a month ago in Punchestown. That was a decent performance but it wasn't the greatest ride by Patrick who was travelling so well he let the leader slip a few lengths and couldn't reel her in. Supreme Carolina gets a 3lbs swing here and I don't think she warrants being 3 times the price as she is definitely capable of reversing that form.

Shu Lewis is another who hasn't put a foot wrong and impressively won against the boys last time but she has to concede 6lbs to Supreme Carolina so I will leave her alone.

I just think that Supreme Carolina is better than her form shows and if she gets a good confident ride here there is no reason why she can't get heavily involved.

Supreme Carolina 2 points win at 6/1 (Paddy Power)

Huntey

Mount Benbulben (+10 points) showed his class when battling hard to reel in Rebel Fitz. Ruby gave his mount a fantastic ride and tried to slip the field but Davy Condon kept at Mount Benbulben who really went to work when asked. He was ridden more prominently which settled him a lot better and he has the makings of a quality horse. He drifted to 5/2 before the off aswell which was nice as the unimpressive Texas Jack went off 9/4 favourite.

Wicklow Lad (-2 points) was kept up with the pace but just couldn't sustain the tempo and faded on the straight.

I will need to watch the race again but I don't think Supreme Carolina (-2 points) was sent out to win this. She seemed to be the last on the bridle two furlongs from home but Patrick wasn't even pushing her along at that stage. She got a few taps down the neck in the last furlong or so but she didn't really have a chance to pick up and wasn't given a hard race by any means. There must have only been about 5 lengths or so between the first 7 or 8 home, one for next time probably but will have to have a second viewing.

Need to stay away from those bloody 3 mile handicaps aswell, I won't make Christmas at this rate!

Bank: 33.35 (+13.35)

Huntey

13:55 Sandown
Fingal Bay

This 2m 4f contest tomorrow is one of the better novice hurdles and an anticipated affair with some potentially very good horses involved. The Philip Hobbs trained Fingal Bay is the one who I am siding with and seems to be the value of the race on all known form.

Fingal Bay is unbeaten with 3 starts to date with two of them coming over hurdles. His first outing last February was an eye-catching display when he won by 20 lengths, although he beat some very poor horses that day. His seasonal reappearance, and first time out over hurdles was a massive step up into a Group 2 contest at Chepstow over 2m 4f and it seemed a tough task with the ground quicker than he would have wanted. However, he handled the conditions and step up in trip brilliantly and went on to win by 6 lengths to the second placed Baile Anrai. That form looks solid with Baile Anrai's previous race being a two and 3/4 length defeat at the hands of the progressive Paul Nicholl's trained Rangitoto. Furthermore, the third placed horse that day was another Nicholls trained in the form of Current Event, a mid 130 rated hurdler who was well beaten by 43 lengths.

Last time out Fingal Bay was the odds on favourite in another Group 2 contest at Cheltenham, and didn't disappoint. He jumped and travelled well until he made a very bad blunder two out, but he really showed his class by barely missing a beat and was ridden out a 3 and 1/2 length winner over Barbatos. Sivola de Sivola was a well beaten 5th that day by 13l, and he has since gone on to win easily in a class 3 chase. It was the nature in which Fingal Bay battled on to win when making a bad mistake that showed he has the scope to be a very classy sort, and one of the reasons why Hobbs rates him so highly.

Although the form isn't top class it is very solid and something which bodes well against his main rival Simonsig, who has a lot to prove. This Nicky Henderson trained grey has received many plaudits but his form looks very weak in contrast to Fingal Bay. Simonsig is very highly regarded by his stable but needs to show a lot more than his flat wins and hurdle win on his seasonal reappearance, which consisted of very exposed and limited animals.

With all the talk being about the top two in the betting, one that has slipped the radar is the Alan Potts owned Sizing Symphony. He looks a very talented prospect and his recent Cheltenham form has been franked in recent weeks. He comes from a shrewd enough yard and the stiff galloping nature of Sandown could very well work in his favour. He may just lack a bit of toe when the screw is turned but his price of 8/1 reflects how strong the first two in the market are.

All things considered Fingal Bay looks the stand out bet to me. His form is strong with two Group 2 wins and with Simonsig making a big step up in class I think the price of 13/8 about Fingal Bay is generous. Sizing Symphony is surprisingly my main danger so I wouldn't be surprised to see him run a big one, and will have a saver on him. With rain forecasted overnight it looks like conditions will probably be good-soft which should be suitable although the stable would prefer softer. He is a good jumper and I see no reason why Dickie Johnson shouldn't have him well in contention turning for home.

Fingal Bay 4 points at 13/8 (Boylesports)

Sizing Symphony 0.5 points at 8/1 (Boylesports)

Huntey

I had planned on waiting until the final declarations before taking this but I'm worried that the price might go and with the amount of shorties I take it is essential to get the early price which I frequently miss.

13:50 Fairyhouse, Hatton's Grace Hurdle (Ante-Post)
Thousand Stars

Thousand Stars really showed his quality in the Morgiana when winning first time out and he will come on from that run still. He takes the step back up to 2m 4f which will only be beneficial and there is nothing to suggest he won't put in another gallant display here. Even though he is going against some Group 1 horses he is definitely the classiest horse in this contest.

The absence of Hurricane Fly has been a blessing for this Willie Mullins trained gelding as he is getting the opportunity to really get involved in some Group 1's and land some nice prizes for the owners. Voler La Vedette was impressive on her seasonal reappearance and I think she is the main threat to Thousand Stars. The anticipated soft ground won't be a problem for here and she is in receipt of 7lbs from the grey, but I still don't think she will be good enough to head him.

Mourad is another nice sort who won't be inconvenienced by the conditions, but probably wants further. He has a bit to find on official ratings and doesn't go overly well when fresh, but has to be respected all the same. Mikael D'Haguenet travelled well last time but emptied pretty quickly so I would expect him to improve from that run. I really hope he gets back to winning ways but couldn't back him in a Group 1 until he shows he can re-establish some of his form from his novice days.

Thousand Stars is a battle hardened grey who will give everything as always. He is very genuine, honest horse and if he gets there in one piece he has nothing to fear in this field on Sunday. Ruby will probably take the ride all going well and with the run under him and conditions to suit I expect another bold showing from a horse who just keeps progressing.

Thousand Stars 4 points at 5/4 (Boylesports)

Huntey

Huntey wrote: »

13:55 Sandown
Fingal Bay
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Hobbs apparently doesn't know quite how good this one is, if I'm out of work in time I think I'll have some cash on

patthebus

PP usually have the best odds

hawaii501

Thanks mate told two mates to lump on about Fingal Bay(thanks to you) and they backed it! Winners all round :D:D

Huntey

November Review

I only started this in mid November but the analysis will be beneficial to establish positive and negative traits and tendencies of my betting in the long run.

Total number of bets: 15
Winning bets: 5
Losing bets: 10

Total points staked: 33.1 points
Average stake: 2.2 points
Highest winning stake: 4 points at 5/2
Highest losing stake: 4 points at 9/4

Bank: 33.35 points

Profit & Loss: + 13.35 points

Return On Investment: 66.75 %

One thing blatantly obvious from the selections is how many short priced horses I back, but I have been having a good success rate with these. I had a total of 4 max stakes, with a success rate of 75% and a RoI of 134%. All of my max stakes bets have been well analysed and only for an incompetent jockey it should be a 100% sweep.

However, I would like to incorporate more bigger priced horses as they possess a more suitable risk-reward situation than having substantial bets on shorties. This will be my aim for December and hopefully I can keep picking value short priced horses with some overpriced bigger odds horses.

A solid enough start but definite improvement to be made, although I haven't been too disappointed with my selections to date.

Huntey

hawaii501 wrote: »

Thanks mate told two mates to lump on about Fingal Bay(thanks to you) and they backed it! Winners all round :D:D

Glad to hear you made some money fella but just to clarify this isn't a tips thread, only a log for my bets.
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Fingal Bay (+ 6.5 points) upheld his solid form today at Sandown and battled on valiantly again to add a third Group 2 to his already impressive form. The race was very messy with the first mile being a canter, and I was worried how it would effect the strong staying Fingal Bay. Sizing Symphony (-0.5 points) was forced to take up the running on the second circuit and that put paid to his chances, with Simonsig and Fingal Bay showing how classy they are. Simonsig had a lot to prove and he did justify the hype that surrounds him. I feared the worst turning for home when Henderson's mount was travelling all over the field with many off the bridle, including the pushed along Fingal Bay. However, he found very little off the bridle and didn't seem to take to the steep finish and Dickie Johnson's mount kept at his work all the way to the line to win by about 3 lengths. He looks like the most impressive novice around so far and is still open to improvement, a potentially quality stayer in the making. All the money came for him aswell and he went off odds on at 4/5, giving me a decent start for December.

Unfortunately Thousand Stars (- 4 points) was pulled from the race so I forfeited a max stake there. Really should have followed my initial advice but that's how the break goes sometimes though.

Bank: 35.35 points (+15.35 points)

hawaii501

Huntey wrote: »

Glad to hear you made some money fella but just to clarify this isn't a tips thread, only a log for my bets.

Blame the well-detailed write-up, that convinced me:p:p

Huntey

12:35 Aintree
Reindeer Dippin

This 2m 4f competitive handicap looks an open affair but I think the Donald McCain trained Reindeer Dippin has the ability to get involved here. This 9 year old gelding carries 10-13 tomorrow and with the hard-working Jason Maguire aboard I think he is worth a risk at the odds.

He finished off the year in style last year running in a very credible second in a handicap at Aintree to Russian War, who is now running off a mark of 149. His seasonal reappearance this year was very average to say the least, but he is a tiny horse and with him carrying top weight of 11-12 I can forgive him that run. Last time out he ran over an uncomfortable trip of 3 miles which he just doesn't stay, but it was a very decent effort all the same. He travelled very well and lost a couple of lengths when he was squeezed out when the race started to heat up, but he faded tamely in the straight. Tomorrows trip of 2m 4f is ideal and he won't be hampered by the ground conditions at all.

Featherbed Lane is the favourite tomorrow and I don't think he warrants such support, he beat Decoy last time out but Reindeer Dippin put Decoy away by 15l over testing ground last February. Wyse Hill Teabags is a big danger tomorrow, and although he finished behind my selection at Aintree he struggled to get a clear run and met a bit of trouble. His price of 9/2 is fair but the race times today suggest the ground is slower than good-soft and I don't think he wants to feel his feet too much. Spirit of Adjisa is the class horse of the race going by his impressive run at Punchestown last May. His class may shine through here but I can't have him with top weight on his seasonal reappearance. Palace Jester is another who won well last time and at 6 he has a bit of scope to improve.

Reindeer Dippin is 9 now and probably won't improve that much but I do think he is capable of running off a higher mark than 132. He is a decent jumper prone to the odd mistake but his ability to travel well may be an advantage over what seems to be a testing enough surface. With this being an open enough contest and him suited by conditions I wouldn't discount him if he runs to his mark. I took the tens earlier which are still around but I will settle for a clear positive run tomorrow in this hotly contested affair.

Reindeer Dippin 1 point at 10/1 (Boylesports)

Huntey

15:05 Sandown
Wishfull Thinking

This Tingle Creek is a trappy looking race but even though Wishfull Thinking is a skinny enough price I don't think his chances are as slim as people suggest. I am a big believer of solid form with horses so this selection may be a bit hypocritical as Wishfull Thinking has never even raced over 2 miles before, so he is very unexposed in this contest.

The thing that draws me towards this Philip Hobbs gelding is his style of running, and how effective that will be on this stiff galloping track. Wishfull Thinking was a massive improver last season, with his jumping really looking that of a Group 1 chaser. He is a keen sort who likes to bowl along and that is a very effective style at Sandown. Dickie Johnson will make this a truly run race and I think that could be the undoing of many of these who he opposes. A massive question mark is has he the speed to go 2 miles, and Hobbs has been very bullish that he won't be outpaced. The truth is that is probably an educated guess and nobody will know until tomorrow. However, if Wishfull Thinking is going to be able to contend with the two milers than there is no better race than the Tingle Creek, where front running prominent jumpers are hard to peg back.

No doubt that Sizing Europe is streets ahead on the ratings here, but his inconsistency really makes him hard to support even at a fair enough price of 7/4. The stiff track at Sandown will help but he really did have a gruelling race last time which very well could have bottomed the horse. He isn't a 3 mile horse and the demands of Alan Potts are really straining this horses abilities, which is madness considering he has one of the best 2 mile festival horses around. This race seems like a second thought and I'm not sure will 4 weeks be enough for him to fully recover. He excels off a strong gallop but he hasn't show anything away from Cheltenham to suggest he will show his top form tomorrow. If Sizing Europe can run close to his mark he will be too good, but he is so inconsistent it is very possible he will run well below it. Wishfull Thinking could very well set it up for him but I am happy to take the chance all the same.

Kauto Stone is a very unknown type due to his French form but on all accounts he needs to run to a higher mark to get involved here. The ground should be suitable but I would like to see some high class form over this side before I could support him. I can't help but think that his price of 3/1 is down to him being half brother to the king as his good form in France can't be constructively compared. I mentioned this the other day aswell that those backing him because of his pedigree need to be aware that it isn't all classy types, as seen with his full brother Kauto Relko. It could very well be soft ground but I think he would prefer a bog and hasn't raced over a stiff track yet. No doubt Nicholls is the master of this race and at the same time Kauto Stone could be anything, so I am cautiously opposing him here.

I'msingingtheblues isn't up to this standard and needs better ground, and although Gauvain will be suited to the conditions he is too slow a jumper which will be critical over these sharp, difficult fences. Cornas is a totally exposed sort but could run a big race into a place if others don't run to form.

Wishfull Thinking showed his best form at the tail end of last season when he put in a solid performance in the Jewson coming 2nd to Noble Prince. He then went on to win a Group 2 at Aintree beating Medermit by 10l, who has decent enough form over 2 miles even though he needs further. This 8 year old gelding than gave 13lbs to Blazing Tempo at Punchestown and put in a flawless round of jumping to win impressively. People have suggested that form flattered him due to his Paddy Power performance, but I was actually impressed by him 3 weeks ago. He went off at a suicidal pace and once he was headed by Great Endeavour in the last 4f or so he wasn't given a hard race. He finished a well beaten sixth but he was giving a minimal of 17lbs to the five that finished in front of him. It was a minefield of a race and expecting him to win on his seasonal reappearance may have been a little too much. He will come on from that run and I really think that his front running sharp jumping is ideal for this. The ground does seems a little softer than good to soft based on today's racing but the chase track is a little better ground anyway. There is so many variables to take account of and a lot of horses have questions to answer so it is a tentative selection.

Wishfull Thinking 2 points at 3/1 (PaddyPower)

Huntey

12:50 Fairyhouse
Mikael D'Haguenet

This race had me initially staying away as it seems crazy having a bet on Mikael D'Haguenet since his demise, but at the same time this price is an insult with only one strong contender imo among a bunch of 130/140 rated hurdlers.

It was quite sad to see how uninterested and poorly Mikael D'Haguenet was performing last season over fences. The horse had no confidence and just didn't resemble anything about the high class novice hurdler that many felt could be very special. Hopefully his seasonal reappearance will have brought him on mentally and physically although this is a serious drop in class. It wasn't a bad effort last time out when he travelled alright but emptied badly coming to the last. It was alarming that when Townend asked him for a big one two out he hesitated and just popped it, and didn't jump the last greatly either but it was a decent enough effort all things considered. He is dropped back to 2 miles tomorrow and he won't be too hampered by the conditions.

New Phase looks a decent enough sort and won impressively last time but he didn't face much. Kempes needs an extra 6f minimum and Psycho was dropped 13lbs for his performance, so it really wasn't much to write home about. Mikael D'Haguenet is in receipt of 10 lbs from Jack Cool and although he put in a decent performance in the Greatwood I am happy to leave him well alone. Head of the Posse needs further and I wouldn't fancy him on his reappearance, with the rest being mid 130 rated animals who shouldn't be able to get near the favourite in this contest.

Mikael D'Haguenet travels very well and I'm hoping he can draw the sting out of any challengers, although I would be surprised if anything came to him apart from New Phase who looks progressive. I really hope the horse wins for his own sake, would be bitterly disappointing if a couple of average animals could put him away. I'm going for a max stake here and hoping for a rejuvenated performance from Mikael D'Haguenet showing these ponies who is top dog.

Mikael D'Haguenet 4 points win at 6/4 (PaddyPower)

New Phase 1 point win at 4/1 (PaddyPower)

NaiveMelodies

unlucky with Dippin hunty, well done with mikael, very classy winner!!

Huntey

Huntey wrote: »

..................

One thing blatantly obvious from the selections is how many short priced horses I back, but I have been having a good success rate with these. I had a total of 4 max stakes, with a success rate of 75% and a RoI of 134%. All of my max stakes bets have been well analysed and only for an incompetent jockey it should be a 100% sweep. ................

And also the price you have taken has been a good bit over SP so you have the chunk of value before the off
Well done on MH earlier too, I love your logic when picking them

Huntey

Reindeer Dippin (-1 point) was a strong mover in the market going off 5/1, and that was all the signs that my bet was toast. He travelled very well as I expected but found nothing off the bridle and was soundly beaten second. I totally underestimated the winner who looks like he is better than this class. A positive run all the same and a decent enough selection.

Mikael D'Haguenet (+6 points) really did look a different horse today and went off a more appropriate evens favourite. He beat a couple of average animals but he looked more confident in himself and his jumping was more fluid. New Phase (-1 point) was supported into 5/2 but couldn't handle the pace and his form from last time was weak enough as I expected. My heart missed a beat when Head of the Posse headed Mikael D'Haguenet at the last but Townend cheekily shifted him up the inside to win it hard on the bridle. It was class to see him turning onto the straight powering along with everything bar Head of the Posse off the bridle aswell. Delighted he won and even though it was against a poor field it is all little steps trying to build him back up.

Wishfull Thinking (-2 points) was given a braindead ride by Dickie Johnson but I don't think it would have mattered anyway. He jumped well but faded when they were taking the turn for home. People are suggesting there may be something wrong with the horse but I'm not convinced, things just haven't gone his way so far this season. Sizing Europe had the race set up for him off a strong gallop but he showed his class and kept up the prestige of the Tingle Creek. I cautiously opposed Kauto Stone and he put in a gallant effort over an unsuitable trip. Wishfull Thinking was a pretty poor selection on my part anyway, it wasn't only Dickie Johnson who had a rush of blood to the head.

A pretty underwhelming profitable day but I will uphold something for future reference, never bet against a horse who has a stone on the field!

Bank: 37.35 (+17.35)

Huntey

Huntey wrote: »

.............. never bet against a horse who has a stone on the field!..............

In fairness you don't make a habit of it
Every artist must let their creative side out from time to time :P

Huntey

RoverJames wrote: »

In fairness you don't make a habit of it
Every artist must let their creative side out from time to time :P

I wouldn't want to make a habit out it :pac:

Hindsight is 20/20 but that was a pretty brutal pick on face value anyway. Not to worry, going for a raid on some shorties tomorrow

Huntey

13:50 Fairyhouse
Voler La Vedette

I have never really taken to this Colm Murphy trained mare but that doesn't take away from the quality animal that she is. This Hatton's Grace is quite competitive but I'm hoping that tomorrow will bring that well deserved Group 1 for connections that she hasn't yet acquired.

Voler La Vedette's form last season as a 6 year old was very solid, with some gallant displays from her only to fall short against some top Group 1 animals. She ran in this race last year and battled on to run in a respectable 3rd by 3 lengths to the phenomenal Hurricane Fly. She was sent over 2 miles last January in a group 1 and she just found the whole thing a little bit quick, but wasn't disgraced by any means. Voler La Vedette's first group 2 came when she beat Rigour Back Bob last February over 2m 5f, and another quickly followed when she battled back at Fairyhouse to beat Blackstairmountain. Blackstairmountain really should have won that day and just emptied when he hit the front, but conditions weren't ideal for this 7 year old mare with the ground being on the quick side. She was sent out next time to tackle the wonder mare Quevega but despite it being a 3 mile contest she put up a decent showing.

Voler La Vedette had a nice seasonal reappearance this season when she ran out a 3l winner of the Lismullen Hurdle. That wasn't a hard race by any means and both trainer and jockey feel she definitely has the scope to improve from that run. Andrew Lynch takes the reins tomorrow and he is 3/4 with the mare, his only defeat coming in this race last year.

Mourad is the current favourite for tomorrow and a horse who has to be respected on all accounts. He is a very versatile sort and the trip and ground shouldn't be a problem tomorrow. On form I think he is a better horse and will have another good season, but he doesn't go well fresh. He was sent out in the Hatton's Grace first time last season and looked to be a danger before he just tired in the last furlong, enabling Voler La Vedette to pip him into third. I also think that he prefers 3 miles, and with the run under this tough battling mare I think this is the race to catch him. He is a progressive type and there really is very little to chose between the form, but with Voler La Vedette in receipt of 7lbs from him I am happy to oppose him tomorrow.

The Real Article is another progressive gelding who hasn't run a bad race yet, but he really needs to prove himself over this trip at the top end of the table. Conditions won't hamper him either but I just think that 7lbs is a big give for a horse who is going against quality opposition. Final Approach isn't a bad sort but he is a bit shy of this class.

It is hotly contested affair with little between them but with the 7lbs allowance and a run under her I am confident of a bold showing from Voler La Vedette. Mourad will put it up to her and won't be far away in the finish but his lack of fitness may just become a factor in the dying stages as it has done in many of his other seasonal reappearances. Murphy thinks the mare has every chance tomorrow and with solid C&D form behind her aswell she has a good opportunity to land that illustrious Group 1. The trip is ideal as 2 miles is a little on the quick side in the top bracket and she doesn't really get three miles. She is a very honest type and I know she will give me a decent chance to add some more coins to the kitty.

Voler La Vedette 2 points at 2/1 (William Hill)