Hunting for Money

Huntey

Hello all,

The National Hunt is back and although I'm a few weeks late to the party it is hunting season for me.

I will use this to log my bets and with a bit of luck I might win some coin to pay for my heating over the cold winter months! :pac:

I must put in the disclaimer that this isn't/nor will be a tips thread but all comments are welcome if you want to call me a shítbox anyway!

Happy hunting folks!

Bank: 20 points

Max Stake: 4 points

BEst of luck with it, I reckon 20 per cent of the bank as a max bet is a stretch, in saying that I did similar myself but wouldn't advise it.

Huntey

Thanks Rover, probably is a little high but it won't be a frequent occurrence, in saying that I could be going out on my shield with two max bets for tomorrow! :pac:
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12:15 Haydock
Grandouet

I am a big fan of this 4 year old speedster and think he could turn into a quality horse over the course of the season. He had the beating of Zarkander at Aintree when he was brought down at the last in April but made amends with a 9 length Group 1 success at Punchestown in May.

He made his seasonal reappearance two weeks ago at Wincanton, and was unlucky when he stepped to soon into a hurdle when travelling magnificently. He was a little lit up that day which was expected from this boisterous French colt but I think that run will settle him a little better for tomorrow.

The big danger seems to be Domtaline, who won impressively on his reappearance from a 10 month lay off when he won by 9 lengths last time out although his jumping was very sketchy at times. There is a form line to be drawn between the two although it is a little inconclusive. At Wetherby last October Grandouet was very keen and bolted into the lead too soon at a fast pace that Domtaline couldn't live with and faded badly, as did Grandouet who came home 5th. Last December at Newbury they went at it again, with Grandouet winning well under AP after Domtaline fell just when the race started to heat up entering the straight. You could really draw a line through both races but it doesn't take away from the fact that Grandouet has excelled since then. Domtaline is a lightly raced horse still and probably has a good bit of scope for improvement, but he will need to be a very classy horse to win tomorrow even though he is in receipt of 8lbs. I'm a big believer in beating quality opposition so I am happy taking the Nicky Henderson's French colt at the short price. Marsh Warbler battled on valiantly to win a 1 & 1/2 mile contest on the AW on his seasonal reappearance but I don't think he will be able to deal with the speed in this race.

The course and ground shouldn't hinder Grandouet and with the run under him there won't be any excuses on the outcome of this race tomorrow. Ap takes the ride as Barry Geraghty is at Ascot so hopefully he will keep Grandouet up to his work, only worry would be if he hits the front to soon or has lost a bit of confidence since his fall.

First bet is going to be a max stake but best price is evens with Ladbrokes.

Grandouet 4 points at 10/11 (Boylesports)

Huntey

I'm gutted Captain Chris isn't running in this but have found another max stake to go with.

14:10 Ascot
Master Minded

Even though it seems an age since Master Minded was hacking up in 09 he is still only an 8 year old, and not over the hill just yet. His seasonal reappearance was simply brutal but there can be excuses made for it. Nicholls was preparing him for this and has said he made a bad judgement in sending him off in the Old Roan Chase, and he also gave a massive 10lbs to Alberta's Run. It was a mess of a race with only three runners so I can't take the form as being a true showing of this 8 year old.

Somersby is the biggest danger for me and won well enough on his reappearance. He probably wants a little bit more than 2m 3f but Ascot is a stiff course so he should take to it well enough. He gets 4lbs from the favourite and usually puts in a solid round of jumping, but I am wary of supporting a horse who hasn't won many at the top level.

Medermit won at Exeter when Captain Chris probably was going to get him only for Dickie Johnson to test out his skydiving skills at the last. That race doesn't look as competitive now with Ghizao looking out of sorts and Cornas running in second, who is a very exposed horse. Khalahari King looks dangerous with a 10lbs swing from Master Minded but he won't be given a hard ride and Fredy has said this isn't one of his main aims, but I don't know what he is up to half the time.

He carries top weight of 11-11 tomorrow but his run at Aintree will stand to him fitness wise and I think he is still the best horse in this race. Definite improvement required from his last race but he hasn't gone on a streak of bad runs and hopefully that is a trend that will keep going tomorrow.

Master Minded 4 points at 7/4 (William Hill)

Huntey

14:30 Haydock
Quartz De Thaix

Probably throwing away a few pennies here in this competitive three mile handicap but I am opting for Quartz De Thaix.

This Venetia Williams runner had a progressive 2011 season, with a credible 7th at Cheltenham when going down to Holmwood Legend by 16l. This gelding beat Son of Flicka on his first start last year, which looks impressive now considering he only went down a length to Sir Des Champs at the festival who is a horse I rate very highly. This season hasn't shown the same level of progression with Quartz De Thaix being pulled up on his seasonal reappearance and went down to The Knoxs by 34 lengths last time out when he ran in a well beaten 4th. He carries 11-3 tomorrow which is ok, but I am hoping he may recapture some of his 2011 form and put up a big performance in this. I don't think he has too much to find on the market leaders but I will settle for a nice solid run.

Aidan Coleman takes the ride in this super competitive race but I'm going to have a small ratio bet.

Quartz De Thaix .4 points win at 28/1 (Betfair), .2 points place at 11/2 (Betfair)

Huntey

3:05 Haydock

Time For Rupert

Wasn't going to bet in this race but just can't get away from TFR, even though his trainer has said it is a "pipe dream" of him turning over Long Run. Long Run is undoubtedly the best horse in this field and this course will suit him down to the ground. However, if he does need the run from this I feel TFR will provide a strong test.

TFR has the course and distance against him here but I think his seasonal reappearance was a credible run. He needs to find a bit on the victor Weird Al but with him having shed a couple of kilos from that run I would need another strong run from Weird Al to be convinced he is a better horse. With Nacarat out it changes the race as TFR may be forced to take up the pace to make it a truly run race. Diamond Harry is another alternative but he could set it up for Long Run to scoot home if it isn't a strong pace. TFR probably isn't as classy as Long Run but he never gives up, and that is something that could really test Long Run on his first outing.

Diamond Harry goes well fresh but he is too fragile for me to put any confidence behind him. I think TFR can reverse form with Weird Al with the run under him and the disparity in prices seems big enough to take a chance with him.

I wouldn't back Kauto because he doesn't seem to have a finishing kick anymore, his Punchestown run wasn't a reflection of where he is as it was too soon after the Gold Cup but I still think his time has passed.

9/1 seems fair enough and hopefully I will get a good run for my money if he can burn the legs off Long Run, but I wouldn't be surprised if Long Run hacked up either.

Time For Rupert 1.4 points win at 9/1, .6 points place at 5/2

Huntey

Grandouet (+ 3.45) is an absolute superstar and won this very well apart from dragging his legs through the last. Only main concern with him in the long run is that he doesn't seem to quite get up the hill at Cheltenham so I resisted taking 20's for the Champion Hurdle which is now trading at a low of 12's.
I would take a guess that he will be going to Kempton for the Christmas Hurdle and that looks like a race suited for him.

Master Minded (+ 8 points) put in a cracking round of jumping which made a difference from last time. Thought Somersby was going to sneak away when he hit the front down the back but the short trip caught him for toe in the last few furlongs. A lovely ride from Daryl Jacobs aswell and the drift to 2-1 was appreciated.

Quartz De Thaix (- 0.6 points) was horrific and never got going, he made a bad few blunders over the first few fences and never looked interested. Was the first to be pulled up and couldn't have picked worse if I tried.

I was somewhat surprised at how exposed Time For Rupert (- 2.0 points) was today. Conditions weren't favourable but he seemed stones behind the others on that form. He was ridden prominently as expected but was just caught for toe badly when the race was turned up a notch. Could possibly be overrated so I will leave him alone until he puts in a quality performance that suggests he is up to this level.

Bank: 28.85 points (+ 8.85)

Well done , very decent first day.

Huntey

Cheers Rover.
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14:10 Punchestown
Thousand Stars

I'm not a fan of backing horses that haven't had a run but Thousand Stars is one of the gamest horses around. He is a fabulous horse who would have a few more Group 1 wins but for quality horses such as Hurricane Fly and Oscar Whisky denying him. I have him well ahead of the field here on ratings and the only reason he isn't shorter in the betting is because it is his seasonal reappearance. He may want further aswell but he rarely runs a bad race and nothing seems to faze him.

I'm not convinced with Pittoni just yet, as just like Domtaline today, he needs to prove himself against top quality opposition before I could take the price about him. He was impressive last time but definitely needs to improve a couple of pounds even for this weak Group 1.

Oscars Well will come on from his run last time but again he might just lack a little bit of toe when the screw is turned. He is a nice sort but again I think improvement is needed here if he is going to turn over Thousand Stars.

Mullins' horses seem to be in good form and I'm hoping this French grey will be forward enough to land the prize here. Whatever the outcome I know I will get a good run for my coin here.

Thousand Stars 2 points at 2/1 (William Hill)

Was looking at him earlier for a cash bet tomorrow, at least with the 2/1 price there's value if he's not race fit as such, I had €40 on LongRun today :rolleyes:

Best of luck with it, I'm a great believer in backing horses who are rated the best in the race and not fav

Huntey

If he had any sort of run into him it would be a max bet but I like to be cautious with seasonal reappearances.

Not to worry with Long Run, will go off at a nice price next time where I would think he will comfortably reverse form with Kauto. It may not look it but it was a decent effort considering he was off the bridle 7f from home. With many of the others exposed today I can't see anything that he would be wary of taking on in the King George.

Indeed, off topic but close home when if was staying on I thought he was going to pass KS.

Huntey

Thousand Stars (+4 points) was the class horse in the race on ratings and was backed off the charts into 5/4. He led from pillar to post where many a horse would have idled but he was very honest again today. Once he got a shake of the reins down the straight he grabbed a few lengths and had them all at it.

Pittoni seems average enough and Oscars Well probably needs more than 2 miles.

Bank: 32.85 points (+12.85)

Huntey

3:00 Ffos Las
Dantari

I'm not a fan of midweek racing but I'm going to side with the well raced 6 year old Dantari in this 2m 6f handicap. His seasonal reappearance was poor enough when he came 13th by around 25l to Decoy, who is a decent enough animal all the same. I'm hoping he will come on for that run because his form from last season is very solid. He ran in some competitive races last season going down to Dynaste, Kilcrea Kim, Overturn and Any Given Day who have all run big races over the weekend.

Always Waining is another that caught my eye at the prices and he may run a big race aswell. Dantari may prefer the ground a little better but he has a nice weight of 10-13 and is definitely capable of improving from his first run. He has dropped in the ratings and needs to find a bit here but I think he is well capable of getting heavily involved.

Dantari 1.2 points win at 8/1 (Paddy Power), .8 points place at 6/4 (Betfair)

Just out of curiousity why not go .8 ew and another .4 win with PP ? Even if its a fifth of the 8 to 1 it is better than the 6 to 4 on betfair

Huntey

RoverJames wrote: »

Just out of curiousity why not go .8 ew and another .4 win with PP ? Even if its a fifth of the 8 to 1 it is better than the 6 to 4 on betfair

It is slightly higher than 6/4 but there is a minimal advantage of doing it that way. I didn't even think of it tbh, ideally I would wait until the place prices would be up in the morning but I won't be available.

Something to acknowledge for future bets anyway, cheers James.

Huntey

Dantari (-2 points) was backed off the charts and went off 11/4 favourite. I was laughing with excitement at the 8/1 I had taken but the joke was on me. He ran no sort of race which was probably due to the testing nature of the ground and the distress signals were out after 1 mile. A little bit disgusted considering big money came for him but that's weekly racing for you.

Bank: 30.85 points (+10.85)

Huntey

Couple of ante-posts I took the other day for the Hennessy, will do a reasoning tomorrow.

15:10 Newbury

Wymott 1.5 points at 7/1.
Joncol 0.5 points at 14/1. (-0.5)
Muirhead 0.5 points at 25/1

13:35 Newbury
Cue Card

I don't think that Cue Card would have lived with Grands Crus lto had he had stayed on his feet but can't leave him go at the price here. Joe Tizzard is usually a big no-no for me but I'm happy for him to carry my coin with Bob's Worth seemingly under-priced imo. The flat track should favour Cue Card and I think he should be a lot closer in the betting considering he was a better hurdler and Bob's Worth hasn't even been seen over a fence yet. I don't really have a consistent rating for both yet but there probably isn't much between them, although the Henderson first string is in receipt of 7 lbs. It was a novicey mistake when Cue Card fell but his form does look solid with Silviniaco Conti and Michael Flips shaping well since they were beaten at Chepstow. Henderson's yard are flying at the minute but if Bob's Worth needs the run he will be hard pushed by Cue Card. The other two horses aren't bad animals either but 9/4 seems very generous about Cue Card.

Cue Card 4 points at 9/4 (Boylesports)

Huntey

Huntey wrote: »

..................
Joncol 0.5 points at 14/1. (-0.5)
...............

I'll be backing Joncol too, if it's softish groung
Monster of a horse.

Huntey

RoverJames wrote: »

I'll be backing Joncol too, if it's softish groung
Monster of a horse.

I have the price deducted in red already James as he is a non-runner, Nolan said he got word the ground was firmer than they would have liked. Reality is he probably couldn't be arsed making the journey over.

tut tut, with the forecast going tomorrow being g to soft thought soft ground might well be there come racetime with a bit of luck.

Cheers for the update anyway
And best of luck with Cue Card, I had mixed feelings when he fell at Chel, had a few quid on Grand Cruz but was really looking forward to the potential spectacle of the race developing.

Huntey

Huntey wrote: »

Couple of ante-posts I took the other day for the Hennessy, will do a reasoning tomorrow.

15:10 Newbury

Wymott 1.5 points at 7/1.
Joncol 0.5 points at 14/1. (-0.5)
Muirhead 0.5 points at 25/1

13:35 Newbury
Cue Card

Joe Tizzard is usually a big no-no for me

And that's the reason why. He absolutely gave it away, he couldn't ride a bicycle not to mind a horse.

Cue Card (-4 points) seemed to have the race sown up but Tizzard wanted to win on the bridle and got caught by the fast finishing Bob's Worth. Horse would be better off away from stable and jockey, bloody disgusted with that ride.

Didn't see it live, saw a re run just there, he slowed the horse for the last when there was no need to, losing what turned not to be a crucial length or two, awful to see really.

Huntey

RoverJames wrote: »

Didn't see it live, saw a re run just there, he slowed the horse for the last when there was no need to, losing what turned not to be a crucial length or two, awful to see really.

The whole thing was just very poor from Tizzard, the two amateur turnarounds in the stretch, easing the horse before the last when he should have stolen a few lengths and then he panicked and was so weak in the finish.

I knew the risk involved but to be honest I didn't expect such incompetence from him.

Bank: 26.85 points (+6.85 points)

Huntey

15:10 Newbury
Wymott

The Hennessy this year is extremely competitive where a decent claim can be made for many of these turning up. Great Endeavour is the only one in the market I would be confident of discarding as I don't think he can put in another big performance two weeks after the Paddy Power over a trip that doesn't suit.

I'm siding with the 7 year old second season chaser Wymott, who is running off a nice weight of 10-2 tomorrow. This Donald McCain trained horse is a very sound jumper and although he has dived at one or two he is very fluid when jumping at pace. The flat track will be fine for Wymott but unfortunately it looks like the ground will go against him here, and although he isn't a totally mudlark he does like to feel his feet a bit so the softer the better. His only form against this field is when he beat Wayward Prince over hurdles and he gets a 6lbs swing from him today.

Wymott has won over 3 miles 1f before, so the extra 1f won't be a problem. However he does tend to idle when he hits the front which is why it is a slight negative that the tireless Jason Maguire will be missing the ride, with Graham Lee taking the reins in his absence. Lee does have a decent enough record in stayers races so hopefully he will give the horse every chance tomorrow.

A line can be drawn through his RSA run as he had a slight fracture but the reports are he is training well at home. There are many other well handicapped horses here who will have big claims aswell but I'm hoping that his ability to stay and fluid jumping will give him a solid chance of getting heavily involved here.

Wymott 1.5 points at 7/1 (William Hill)

15:10 Newbury
Muirhead

Muirhead was once a 158 rated hurdler and he is still a little unexposed with 5 chase runs resulting in two wins and a 3rd place finish. He cantered all over the field in Limerick a few weeks back and struggled last time out when he ran in a well beaten 8th at Ascot but he should be better suited by the flat track. He carries a nice weight also of 10 - 4 and I just think he has enough scope to improve to get involved here if Noel Meade has him ready for the task.

Muirhead 0.5 points win at 25/1 (William Hill)

Huntey

14:20 Newcastle
Overturn

Binocular is the short favourite here and certainly not a horse that I would be wary of first time out. The Henderson yard are in great form but the front running Overturn gets the nod for me. He won last week at Ascot over an extended trip of 2m 4f and I'm hoping that he didn't have too much taken out of him as he would have had a harder race had Oscar Whisky not fallen at the last. He only has 1 lbs to find on official ratings and if Binocular needs the run he will be made to work here. He might want a little further than 2 miles but it should be sufficient anyway. Celestial Halo won on his seasonal reappearance but Grandouet was cantering all over him before he fell gifting him an easy win. I would have preferred had Overturn had a longer break but I'm hoping he will be the biggest danger to Binocular should he need the run. He is best priced 3/1.

Overturn 2 points at 5/2 (William Hill)

Huntey

15:45 Newbury
Osric

This Nicky Henderson 8 year old is an attractive price in this race and one I think can overcome his rating of 129. Conditions will suit tomorrow and he is nicely weighted off 10-10. On ratings he needs to find a lot off his mark amongst Fistral Beach and others but I don't think he is 16 lbs inferior than the favourite. He had a decent enough run at the festival back at March but faded when the screw was turned. His seasonal reappearance was poor but tomorrows trip should suit better and he is definitely capable of getting involved here.

Osric 1.5 points win at 11/1 (William Hill), 0.5 points place at 3.75 (William Hill)

Huntey

Wymott (-1.5 points) stayed on valiantly today and jumped very well as I expected. He just lacked a bit of toe when things heated up but he is definitely one I would like to see go to the National. He is as natural a jumper you will see and stays well, a nice prep over hurdles to keep the mark down and I don't see why he couldn't be a major player.

Muirhead (-0.5 points) ran alright aswell when he was supported in the market down to 16's. He travelled ok and then made a mistake down the back and struggled to stay with the leading group.

Joncol (-0.5 points) Non-runner.

Overturn (+ 5 points) is a very likeable horse and he gave everything again today when making all to win. Maguire gave him a peach of a ride and burned everyone off bar Binocular when they were coming into the straight. McCoy gave his mount every chance to win it but he wasn't good enough to head the hard-working Overturn, who will get a deserved break now.

The second steamer I have logged so far was Osric (-2 points), who was backed into 7/2 2nd favourite from the 11/1 I took. However, just like Dantari he wasn't able to justify the support. He seemed to find a bit off the bridle when turning into the straight but he faded badly with the front runners travelling much stronger. Hopefully one for next time again but I'd rather they drift to 100/1 and tail off then be backed off the charts and play with my heart strings.

Bank: 27. 35 points (+7.35)

Huntey

Another shortie for tomorrow...

12:45 Navan
Mount Benbulben

On first glance this looked like a no-bet race to me but I have found a big enough claim for the Gordon Elliot trained Mount Benbulben. This 6 year old gelding has really started to shape into a quality horse and if he is as good as I think he should take all the beating tomorrow.

Barry Connell bought this horse last year after he impressed in a couple of bumpers beating some nice horses including the late Lovethehigherlaw. Mullins thought the world of that horse and even though he might have wanted better ground that day he won a bumper very well at the Punchestown Festival, so his 8 length beating by Mount Benbulben has to be respected.

The soft ground will be perfect tomorrow and the trip of 2m 4f is ideal. Mount Benbulben's seasonal reappearance and hurdling debut didn't go to plan with him slipping up on the flat. He was lit up like a Christmas tree that day and fought for his head off Paul Carberry most the way round, but he was still travelling well when he went down. He won handily enough last time out over a more substantial trip and settled a bit better, winning on the bridle beating Golanbrook into second who has placed in a maiden hurdle since. His jumping was a bit novicey at times but it wasn't anything I would be too concerned about.

His two main rivals tomorrow will be Texas Jack and Rebel Fitz. Paul Carberry is claimed by Noel Meade to take the ride on Texas Jack and he won very impressively last time out winning hard on the bridle. His seasonal debut went well although he only beat a hacking horse that day who has been beaten by 35l and 17l since. The trip should suit him aswell but I have a feeling he won't want it too soft here.

Rebel Fitz has rarely run a bad race so far and with Ruby on board this Michael Winters trained gelding will make a decent claim for himself. He is unexposed over this trip and his only run over testing ground proved to be his least impressive when he ran in fourth, so I'm content to leave him be.

John Harrington has a nice enough horse in the race aswell and it is definitely the most competitive novice hurdle we have seen this side of the pond this season. Davy Condon takes the ride for Gordon Elliot with Carberry claimed for Texas Jack, and I'm hoping he will give Moun Benbulben every chance to prove how good I think he is. Missed the early price of 5/2 which is a shame but still going to have a max bet.

Mount Benbulben 4 points win at 15/8 (Paddy Power)

x PyRo

Best of luck with MB and well done with Overturn, he's a cracking animal.

Huntey

2:20 Navan

This 25 runner 3 mile handicap is a minefield but I think I have found a decent chance with the nicely handicapped progressive type Wicklow Lad.

Francis Flood was probably aiming for the Troytown as Wicklow Lad has only been seen over hurdles since he reappeared for the season. He had one good and one mediocre run but I'm sure he will definitely come on and it has kept him down to a nice mark for tomorrow. He carries 10-2 tomorrow with a 5lbs claim from the very capable Adrian Heskins. He will relish the soft ground and on his only previous race over 3m he beat Ad Idem by a comprehensive 7 lengths, who also lines up here tomorrow.

It is a very competitive line-up and there is a couple more I like but I do think that Wicklow Lad is very capable of exceeding his mark of 121, on a track that he loves going 2/2. Francis has aimed him for this and I'm happy to take the chance with him as he is probably ahead of the handicapper, has conditions to suit and a very talented claimer in Adi Heskins. Missed the early price again on this one.

Wicklow Lad 2 points win at 9/1 (Paddy Power)