Leinster flooding - 24th October 2011

Enderman

Enderman wrote: »

Just scaremongering. There's rain coming but its nowhere near as intense or lasting. Already past Athlone and we have some glorious sunshine.

Yep! bucketing down a little while ago now sunny, radar shows it clearing as well.

DominoDub

A few links for those of you wishing to look ahead to Monday :rolleyes:

http://www.niederschlagsradar.de/forecastloop.aspx?type=1




http://www.sat24.com/gb

4Sheets

Enderman wrote: »

Just scaremongering. There's rain coming but its nowhere near as intense or lasting. Already past Athlone and we have some glorious sunshine.

It is a fairly skinny band of showers alright but briefly heavy..I was mostly referring to risk on Monday..its seems we are in one of those periods where when it rains it pours...

cherryghost

DominoDub wrote: »

A few links for those of you wishing to look ahead to Monday :rolleyes:

Well it'd make more sense if you didn't post TODAY'S radar from the ME website

fr wishy washy

Just heard very heavy rain and some surface flooding in kill. Sun splitting the trees here in Blessington

kit3

4Sheets wrote: »

Should there not be thread for Monday 20-40mm potential in MT forecast? is there a danger of repeat flooding..lashing here at the moment..some dark red cells passing over.

Hi, Anyone care of hazard a guess on this ? Dublin marathon on Monday and much of the route was flooded last week. I'll be at the much slower end of the race- just wondering if I'll need to start thinking of swimming the end :eek:

dsmythy

kit3 wrote: »

Hi, Anyone care of hazard a guess on this ? Dublin marathon on Monday and much of the route was flooded last week. I'll be at the much slower end of the race- just wondering if I'll need to start thinking of swimming the end :eek:

Depends on how well the flooded sections drained. The rain amounts aren't certain at the moment. Heaviest would be in the afternoon if the forecast holds.

redsteveireland

This thread should probably be closed now as the title is misleading to any late-comers.

Su Campu

I've renamed the thread as I think people still may have something to add for a while yet. However, please don't use it for discussing future weather.

Not wrote: »

ME, on the 9pm forecast last night, mentioned up to 80mm over the next week, without any mention of what their assessment of its flooding potential might be. That's a lot of rain, more than the monthly average total if I'm not mistaken, so I find their lack of mention of the f word curious.

It's not unusual at all. 80 mm over a week is a lot different to 80 mm over 9 hours. There are no signals of any prolonged heavy rainfall over the next week like there was last Monday.

Sponge Bob

Su Campu wrote: »

If Monday's rain had fallen as snow it would be around 1 - 1.5 m deep! Fairly impossible for Ireland but hypothetically!

Does this mean we can still talk about snow???

Su Campu

Sponge Bob wrote: »

Does this mean we can still talk about snow???

As long as everyone doesn't go and each start a thread on it!

Coles

It would be interesting to see the hourly rainfall data from some of Met Eireann's Wicklow rainfall gauges. I reckon there was probably some massive hourly totals recorded, possibly even some new records. Anyone know when they'll be available?

Not

Enderman wrote: »

Just scaremongering. There's rain coming but its nowhere near as intense or lasting. Already past Athlone and we have some glorious sunshine.

Who's scaremongering ?

Su Campu wrote: »

It's not unusual at all. 80 mm over a week is a lot different to 80 mm over 9 hours. There are no signals of any prolonged heavy rainfall over the next week like there was last Monday.

Thanks. Just as I suspected, but I just thought ME should have given their opinions to their television viewers on what they thought the potential outcome of this 80mm might be, even if to assure people it's likely to be slight. They do elaborate on their website mentioning the possibility of spot flooding, but mainly in the west.

DominoDub wrote: »

A few links for those of you wishing to look ahead to Monday :rolleyes:

http://www.niederschlagsradar.de/forecastloop.aspx?type=1

http://www.sat24.com/gb

But if you follow the animation on that website from which you took that picture it shows the rainfall moving swiftly from west to east, unlike last Monday where it unusually came from the south exposing locations in the east to the full length of the front rather than the usual narrow width of it. Although on last nights forecast they did have black arrows on their charts coming up from the south - I dont know what that was about

kit3 wrote: »

Hi, Anyone care of hazard a guess on this ? Dublin marathon on Monday and much of the route was flooded last week. I'll be at the much slower end of the race- just wondering if I'll need to start thinking of swimming the end :eek:

dsmythy wrote: »

Depends on how well the flooded sections drained. The rain amounts aren't certain at the moment. Heaviest would be in the afternoon if the forecast holds.

Shores around here, which flooded last week, and is on the marathon route, still havn't been cleared of the leaves etc clogging them since last Mondays flooding. A spare pair of dry shoes and socks will probably be required by the end of marathon due to puddles, but, unless one of those fronts stalls in the wrong place, which seems unlikely from the forecasts, I dont think waders, flippers or snorkels will be required.

Su Campu wrote: »

However, please don't use it for discussing future weather.

Will heed that from here on.

Sponge Bob

Uusally in the monthly report or in a special report on an extreme event...eg the November 2009 flooding.

http://www.met.ie/about/weatherobservingstations/rainmap.asp

JFKIRELAND

See below jpg of rainfall amounts this year in Dublin 5.
Kinda puts last Monday into perspective...:)

TURRICAN

Sponge Bob wrote: »

Su Campu wrote: »

If Monday's rain had fallen as snow it would be around 1 - 1.5 m deep! Fairly impossible for Ireland but hypothetically!

Does this mean we can still talk about snow???

Instant ban.

Deep Easterly

Just for archive sake, here is the rainfall radar sequence for the 24th Oct:


IMAGE SOURCE: WeatherOnline.co.uk

Though it is a high res image the quality isn't great as I had to reduce the colour bit rate from 91 per frame to just 32 due to file size limitation for upload and animation smoothness.

Who knows, maybe in a 100 years time when we are all no more others will stumble across this thread and read about the Dublin floodings of Oct 2011! Although I expect by then that the radar sequence above will look incredibly ancient and pathetic by their standards. So apologies in advance to you future people of a different age and era, it is the best we could at this very point in time, which will always exist, if only in the past.

Tony EH

Now the future people are totally confused.

up for anything

They'll be too busy wondering why such a large group of people were actively wanting an extreme ice age to start in the November of 2011 to spend much time thinking about the Dublin floods.

WolfeIRE

http://www.rte.ie/news/2011/1107/weather.html

new report into flooding

Iancar29

But where are the papers getting this from????????????

Monster' rain is on the way


By Martin Flanagan, CITY DESK
Tuesday November 08 2011

DUBLIN is set for more flood havoc with the arrival of further 'Monster Rain', it's revealed today.

The city council warned that its flood defences cannot cope with torrential rainstorms and flash flooding.

Council officials said incidents of Monster Rain are on the increase in Europe and Dublin's 200-year-old drainage system can't defend us.

They also blamed Met Eireann for some of the inadequate response to last month's disaster.

The met service only predicted between 40-70 mm of water over 24 hours which would have caused only localised flooding. In the event, over 100mm of rain fell in just a few hours on October 24.

Executive manager Tom Leahy said €120m has been spent on flood works in the city area over the past 10 years, and improvements on the Liffey, Tolka and the Dodder held the water.

However, local councillors strongly criticised the council's handling of the emergency.

- Martin Flanagan, CITY DESK

nerrad1983

More of the same in tonights Evening Herald

http://www.herald.ie/news/we-cant-stop-the-floods-2928194.html

Villain

http://www.carlow-nationalist.ie/tabId/369/itemId/12537/Weatherman-says-council-flood-notice-was-reckless.aspx

Su Campu

Lies, lies and more lies. When are people going to admit that Dublin did NOT get "100 mm in just a few hours"? It got on average 74 mm in 24 hours, 4 more than the 70 mm predicted.

amacachi

Su Campu wrote: »

Lies, lies and more lies. When are people going to admit that Dublin did NOT get "100 mm in just a few hours"? It got on average 74 mm in 24 hours, 4 more than the 70 mm predicted.

Yeah but even if a couple of square metres got 100mm over say 6 hours they're going to call it "100mm in just a few hours". I'm surprised someone who's a Moderator of the weather forum getting wound up by this, you must have shallow seats in your house. :pac:

weisses

Su Campu wrote: »

Lies, lies and more lies. When are people going to admit that Dublin did NOT get "100 mm in just a few hours"? It got on average 74 mm in 24 hours, 4 more than the 70 mm predicted.

What you are saying is just not looking good in the papers ... that's all

Su Campu

amacachi wrote: »

Yeah but even if a couple of square metres got 100mm over say 6 hours they're going to call it "100mm in just a few hours". I'm surprised someone who's a Moderator of the weather forum getting wound up by this, you must have shallow seats in your house. :pac:

I have a problem when things are misreported for political gains. Most people will read that rainfall figure and take it as fact, as it came from Dublin City Council. They're trying to pass the buck to cover their asses, and that is wrong. They're saying black is white, and most people will buy it. And there are many people on here too that would like any excuse to shaft Met Éireann.

Can anyone post a source of this 100 mm 24 hour rainfall total, and also a reason why the actual official figures ranging from 69 to 82 mm are NOT valid?

amacachi

Su Campu wrote: »

I have a problem when things are misreported for political gains. Most people will read that rainfall figure and take it as fact, as it came from Dublin City Council. They're trying to pass the buck to cover their asses, and that is wrong. They're saying black is white, and most people will buy it. And there are many people on here too that would like any excuse to shaft Met Éireann.

Can anyone post a source of this 100 mm 24 hour rainfall total, and also a reason why the actual official figures ranging from 69 to 82 mm are NOT valid?

Like I said, I just thought at this stage you'd be well used to it.

As I mentioned at the time, I had a lecturer who did a report after the Dodder (I think) flooded in the 80s. Lo and behold it was ignored. From then on when there was a flood event he knew what to expect.

Tornando9

amacachi wrote: »

Like I said, I just thought at this stage you'd be well used to it.

As I mentioned at the time, I had a lecturer who did a report after the Dodder (I think) flooded in the 80s. Lo and behold it was ignored. From then on when there was a flood event he knew what to expect.

I recorded a 24hr total of 66mm on the VP2 here just 4 miles from Casement.

Coles

After seeing the damage caused in one particular catchment in the Wicklow Mountains I am absolutely positive that well in excess of 100mm fell over a period of 4 hours. Possibly as much as 120mm with a sustained rainfall rate of 50mm per hour.



This stream flows from a catchment of just 5km2 and would have a long term mean flow of 160 litres/s, but on the 24th of October it reached at least 70,000 ltrs/s. It was unbelievable.