Ex Katia storm thread - TECHNICAL DISCUSSION, FORECASTS AND OBSERVATIONS ONLY!

tzfrantic

Weathercheck wrote: »

I reckon the capital will see some decent gusts tomorrow. Maybe to 70mph or more towards midday-3pm

dublin should see at least 80 mph gusts in the mourning

ninebeanrows

18z, further south again/ weaker again!?

RobitTV

Wind is increasing in waterford, not looking good.

Harps

A touch further south and a touch weaker on the 18z

RobitTV

WHAT THE HELL

Just saw on waterford weather - wind gust 51KM/H :eek:

JanuarySnowstor

Ok it's close to a storm now in Cork.
I'm surprised as it's hours away yet from it's peak

ninebeanrows

Less extreme storm but further south.

Extreme gusts in coastal North and Northwest weakened. Potential for damaging gusts further south increased.

Plenty of 65 knots gusts inland possible. So gusts to 70mph or a tad over this inland very likely in squally showers.

maquiladora

Weathercheck wrote: »

18z, further south again/ weaker again!?

Yes, thats been the trend all day now.

Mayo Exile

18Z GFS at +12 and +18 hrs. Downgrade maybe?

ninebeanrows

maquiladora wrote: »

Yes, thats been the trend all day now.

Ye crazy isn't it.

Would only take a small secondary low as the NMM showed or a kink in the Isobars. Jetstreak to cause some big gusts over central NI and as far south to Dublin.

But at the moment the trend is weakening the storms depth but cancelling this out by bringing it further south.

I personally would prefer the storm tracking closer and being weaker than vica-versa.

RobitTV

Just looked outside, wind is getting heavier now, the rain is swaying everywhere like a snow storm.

Harps

Central pressure at only 974hPa as it passes over us, once again its been shifted further south while being weakened slightly so more intense for the country as a whole but less so for us in the north.

To be honest looking at the charts at the moment a 50 page thread is a bit ridiculous but I guess thats what you get after month after month of totally uneventful weather!

barnacle

Winger_PL wrote: »

Atlantic drive so we'll be passing through Dooega! We'll probably reach Achill just before 11am.

TBH, you'd probably be safer heading out Ashleam way to the Atlantic Drive if the winds live up to the hype. I may even do that myself, rather than head up the switchbacks, was fair windy yday and I was blown all over the place.

Atlantic Drive is definitely the best spot, the main viewpoint area should be really good, or down the 'boneshaker' road to an inlet could be really good too. What height waves are we expecting (on a mobile connection here, so can't be trawling the net like I usually would). Also, does anyone have a link to a radar/IR image so I can see how this is shaping up?

tzfrantic

what will the winds be like in meath or Cavan

maquiladora

You'd have to wonder, with the nudges closer to us on the past few runs, will it nudge even closer than what the 18Z shows now.

Tactical

tzfrantic wrote: »

what will the winds be like in meath or Cavan

Windy :rolleyes:

tzfrantic

what speed will the winds be like in cavan or meath

ninebeanrows

NAE similar to GFS

very windy conditions right across the country.

dsmythy

Don't mind the 18z at all. Lessens the possibility of seriously damaging gusts up north while spreading some love for us further south

RobitTV

gust speed in waterford has decreased

irish1967

I presume a lot of the data used in these models is taken from past events and/or simulated runs. Would I be right in saying that all the outputs from whatever source are having trouble with this system due to it's rarity?

TheMilkyPirate

Keep comin south baby!

gozunda

Upper air sounding (Tephigram)from Valentia Observatory from Met Eireann (LINK)

Of interest is the temperature (red) / wind (Wind arrows) / and vertical soundings (in metres) of the atmosphere

There is a near constant tempetaure gradient up to 12000 m...

Croc

http://www.irelandsweather.com/

This has a graphical map of all online personal weather websites located in Ireland if you want to see whats happening with wind speed etc in your locality.

Mayo Exile

Its a bit of an ugly duckling isnt it? Hard to see a good pattern. Thermal IR image from around 9.30 BST. Steady rain and a light wind here in Dundalk at the moment.

Tactical

gozunda wrote: »

Upper air sounding (Tephigram)from Valentia Observatory from Met Eireann (LINK)

Of interest is the temperature (red) / wind (Wind arrows) / and vertical soundings (in metres) of the atmosphere

There is a near constant tempetaure gradient up to 12000 m...

What does that translate to in laymans terms?

Mountainsandh

maquiladora wrote: »

WC, did you see that post on NW from pyrotech about a possible shortwave forming south of the centre?

hem, not too sound too keen but eh... SHORTWAVE ? sounds goood, what is that ?

ThelotusKid

Building nicely down here in West Cork - some strong gusts.

Can't believe how warm the wind is though.

Liam90

Getting windy now and i can here the irish sea from my house, im excited don't know why storms do this to me.

dsmythy

Why does the south west have the higher gusts at the moment?