Urban Sea's New Betting Log

UrbanSea

Well done anyone who backed the winner.

Backing a big'un tomorrow.

Master Minded 8/15 Old Roan Chase

Good luck to anyone laying him.

Stake:150

UrbanSea

Haha oh dear lord.

Thank God that wasn't real dollars on Master Minded.

I'd imagine there are a lot of people seriously out of pocket.

UrbanSea

Bank:395

Colombian didn't go because of the quick ground.

UrbanSea

Colombian was beaten today in a conditions' race,couldn't back him at odds on today though.

Gallagher 2.50 Catterick 22/1

He might be the outsider here but I've been waiting for him for a long time to come good and I think tomorrow could be a good chance for him.
He was one of the top two year olds around and was unlucky for him not to win a group race,he was second in the Prix Morny behind Bushranger,as well as second in the group 2 Richmond Stakes,beaten a neck by Prolific,and second in the Mill Reef,beaten by subsequent Group 1 winner Lord Shanakil.

Couldn't capture those heights at 3 but still was rated as high as 114. It's been down hill since then,running in handicaps off high marks in the 100's. Had since left Brian Meehan's yard,and had 3 runs for Dandy Nicholls before joining his new yard this year. Made his comeback run this year at the start of August off a mark of 95. His best run this year was the time before last off a mark of 85 in a decent class 2 handicap at York. He was beaten under 5 lengths that day but has dropped 5 pounds since,and was backed from 16/1 into 12/1 over five furlongs last time,a trip clearly too short for him.

Back to his optimum trip tomorrow with conditions to suit and he's incredibly well handicapped,and it's his first run in a class 4 since his maiden back in 08.

Stake:25 each way

UrbanSea

Punching 25/1 4.30 Yarmouth

Racing on turf for the first time since july 2010 when he was 100/30 favourite over course and distance when finishing forth behind Bertie Southstreet,aside from last month off a two pound higher mark in what was a better race. Has been racing on fibre sand and all weather since off a much higher mark. Races off a turf mark of 58 today but his all weather mark is considerably higher(as high as 79 this year). Looks a nice each way price

Stake:10 each way

Killed

Well done on the place

UrbanSea

Thanks Killed.


Pity about Gallagher,I'm not giving up yet though :cool:

UrbanSea

Time for Rupert Charlie Hall Chase 7/2

Should have posted this when he was 9/2,alas,no more.

Was the highest rated hurdler making the transition to fences last season where he was a revelation. Had high quality hurdle form over staying distances (was second in the World Hurdle behind Big Buck's). Lightly raced last year though,but made a winning debut over fences at Cheltenham in what was a strong two and a half mile novice,staying on strongly from Hell's Bay who went on to win the Grade 2 Dipper's Chase.

He confirmed that promise next time out when odds on when beating Chicago Grey by 8 lengths,who he reopposes Saturday. Was seen by many as being one of the bankers at Cheltenham in the RSA chase when he went in a well backed 7/4 shot,but could only finish 5th,six legnths behind Bostons' Angel.
I'm not sure that was his true running,and he was put away since. I think he can be a class act this year,and Diamond Harry has a bit to prove after not been seen since winning last year's Hennessy. Looks a good renewal.

Stake:40

UrbanSea

Red Avis 6.00 Dundalk 14/1

Nicely bred Exceed and Excel filly out of a winning miler by Machiavellian. Showed good pace despite been weak in the market (5/1-12/1) on debut at Down Patrick when a three quarters of a length second behind Bogini,when she dead heated with Jpevie who she meets on the same terms today. She disappointed second time out when a 9/2 shot at Cork in a Stakes race,beaten 8 lengths by Felina,but I don't think that was her true running,given that she finished about 6 lengths behind the more exposed Bogini that time.
I don't like seeing horses drop down a lot in trip and that would put me off the fav who ran a decent race first time out over 7,before being dropped to 6 and is being dropped to five today. Jpevie is around the 6/1 shot and I can see Red Avis progressing past him,as he had the experience of a run under his belt when dead heating with Red Avis first time.One I like at a price is Unescorted

Stake:15 each way

UrbanSea

Qannaas 1.50 Newmarket 7/2

Nicely bred colt who's by Hard Spun who's dam was runner up in a grade 2 handicap in the States. Was well backed on debut at Windsor when sent off the warm 2/1 favourite at the back end of September,running green before running a nice debut when finishing two and a half lengths behind Asifa. The second and third have since raced and failed to win but better was clearly expected that day and I'll give him another chance. The favourite looks far too short for me and is looking exposed,and can't back it after it failed to win a run of the mill maiden at Redcar last time. Uriah Heep is the big danger,but the fact it's a new comer from Stoute's suggests he may need the run.

Stake:20

UrbanSea

Well done anyone who found the 33/1 winner. Beaten into second

UrbanSea

Red Avis is forth,****.

UrbanSea

Diamond Harry doesn't go :cool:


Pyro change the tags ya bender

Nulty

Tipping guru - whats the bet in the 2.40 tomorrow at Kempton. I've got a free bet.

UrbanSea

Time for Rupert only second.


No need to be sarcastic. I like Beyond but with free bets I'd rather a bit of a bigger price. On Borrowed Wings was beaten only a head in a strong Ascot handicap hurdle off a five pound lower mark last try over hurdles and is 2/2 fresh (3/3 if you count a break from May to December)

Nulty

UrbanSea wrote: »

Time for Rupert only second.


No need to be sarcastic. I like Beyond but with free bets I'd rather a bit of a bigger price. On Borrowed Wings was beaten only a head in a strong Ascot handicap hurdle off a five pound lower mark last try over hurdles and is 2/2 fresh (3/3 if you count a break from May to December)

You read my mind. I like On Borrowed Wings too. Trainer is out of form though and says some of his lot have been held up by the fast ground and dry weather. **** I'll go with it. Thanks Guru.

UrbanSea

Bank:327.5
Loss:172.5

Need to get thinking.

UrbanSea

Auden 4.50 Kempton 13/8

Not the biggest of prices but looks a solid bet. Ran well on his debut in a Newmarket maiden as a two year old when second,and I saw the race he was beaten at 3/1 on next time out at Brighton,but didn't handle the track at all well that day. Won a Newmarket maiden next time out then in Septemeber 2010 before a very encouraging return from a break last week when running third off this mark over course and distance,beaten over half a length when short of room. Should be fresher for that and come on for the run,and will be hard to beat if in the same form.

Stake:40 euro

Juwwi

What do you think of 16/1 Time for rupert for the goldcup ?

I did'nt see his race the other day.

AstonMartin

Haven't a clue how to go about pricing up the ponies. How do you do it?

UrbanSea

robbie1977 wrote: »

What do you think of 16/1 Time for rupert for the goldcup ?

I did'nt see his race the other day.

I didn't see it either,but a bit disappointed that he'd be beaten by Weird Al. Weird Al promised alot as a novice but disappointed last season. He's still lightly raced though so that form could prove better than first glance.

I fancied TFR for the Gold Cup last year because there were so many question marks over the rest of the field. I don't think I'd want to be taking 16/1 at the minute. That price will shorten up if he wins nicely next time out,but I think it's a wide open race again this year. I doubt I'll be having any ante post bets on it this year,I'd 25 each way on him last year at I think 33/1 but he went for the RSA. I was bitterly disappointed that he didn't win that.

AstonMartin wrote: »

Haven't a clue how to go about pricing up the ponies. How do you do it?

I wouldn't price up a lot of races to be honest. I'd always look for what I think is a bit of value though. Admittedly there isn't a whole lot of value in tomorrow's race as I was hoping there'd be a bit of 2/1 around,but he's totally unexposed compared to the rest of the field.

UrbanSea

I'm going to put my neck out and say that wasn't the horse's true running.

Eleventh of twelve.

AstonMartin

AstonMartin wrote: »

Haven't a clue how to go about pricing up the ponies. How do you do it?

I do it fairly crudely, if I reckon x amount of them have a decent chance and the odds of what I fancy are greater than (x+1) to 1 than I reckon it's decently priced. I wouldn't go deeper than that.

UrbanSea

Another one I do is take into account the various projected SP's from different outlets.

If it's well above what I think it should be and what it's projected around it can be a good value bet

UrbanSea

One for tomorrow
Six Wives 2.50 Southwell 11/1
Stake:15 each way

Nulty

UrbanSea wrote: »

One for tomorrow
Six Wives 2.50 Southwell 11/1
Stake:15 each way

I have On The High Tops in my tracker. I was hoping the next time I'd see his name would be in at least 4 months time but I'm having a crack at him in the race tomorrow, blinkers first time and fibresand debut. Happy enough with the jockey booking too.

UrbanSea

Oh my god I feel sick.


Nulty you mentioning your tracker made me check mine. I had one from two weeks ago I didn't look at.

Check how it did:



Runner Update
david, you requested to be informed about the following runners:

Demoiselle Bond (GB)
declared to run at Kempton on Thursday 10th Nov

Please Note: Entry and Declaration Links are only valid up to day of race. Result Links are only valid up to 3 days after race.

Regards,
www.irishracing.com

UrbanSea

Wait,that's for it's next run. Still,I mean for the last run,which I didn't look at

NaiveMelodies

UrbanSea wrote: »

Wait,that's for it's next run. Still,I mean for the last run,which I didn't look at

Jaysus, sick. What did you see in the horse that made you put her in the tracker as a matter of interest?

UrbanSea

Caught my eye first run when did all of her best work near the end when she had been incredibly green and didn't run bad the second time out. Was going to back her if she was at the bottom of the weights in a seller or claimer. Didn't think she'd be 100/1 though