Horses......... lots of lays

RoverJames

RoverJames wrote: »

4.30 W'ton Gabrials King 2.26 €6.00, this is a lay bet not a back bet............

Won by a length -€7.56 today

2.50 Kempton Its Dubai Dolly 13 €2.35 & €3 at SP

Topweight in this class 7 0 to 50 over 10f, Its Dubai Dolly is the only contender to have won here at Kempton, that was over 12f but Its Dubai Dolly came 3rd over this trip off this mark 3 runs ago in a 0 to 55, a repeat of that run could well be good enough to take this.

Its Dubai Dolly is a 6 year old who a little over two years ago was running respectably off marks in the low 70s, this race is woeful and has lots of very poor horses lining up.

RoverJames

RoverJames wrote: »

2.50 Kempton Its Dubai Dolly 13 €2.35 & €3 at SP.............

4th -€5.35 today

4.05 W'ton Hawaana 14.5 €3.00 and €2 at SP

Hawaana finished almost 2l behind Knowe Head lto but from a better draw I feel that can be reversed, Hawaana hasn't been at this low a mark for a while and the trip suits these days.

Trip Switch has obvious claims with the jockey taking 7lbs off but is priced accordingly and is no sure thing.

RoverJames

RoverJames wrote: »

4.05 W'ton Hawaana 14.5 €3.00 and €2 at SP..............

Unplaced, -€5 today

1.20 Southwell Sofias Number One 7 €10 & 7.2 €9

I've put a decent chunk on this won as I really fancy it.

Sofias Number One has excellent course and distance form and after dropping to a mark of 60 over the last two months should have a really really good chance of taking this 0 to 60 8f contest.

Sofias Number One has ran three time here over 8f, winning twice and finishing 2nd on the most recent outing beaten by just over two lengths by the excellent William Haigh. That most recent effort was off a mark of 63 in a 0 to 70, William Haigh finished like a motorbike to take the race but Sofias Number One was three and a half lengths clear of the third home. William Haigh was topweight in that race and went on to win it's next three starts too, the last being a 0 to 95 off 88 over this CD on New Year's Day.

Sofias Number One was very unlucky to come up against William Haigh on that occasion, since then Sofias Number One has had four runs, over trips that I think would be less than suitable (9f, 11f and two 6f contests), lto over 6f here at Southwell Sofias Number One was beaten almost 6l off a mark of 60 but was nearest at the finish so the return to 8f should no doubt suit and I have no concerns over the recent form due to the trips that Sofias Number One has been tried over. The resulting drop to 60 I see as a huge benefit.

Caledonia Prince, the current and likely to remain that way, fav at 7/4 ish has also won over CD but that was in a 3yo contest, lto over 7f here was beaten a short head and was staying on strongly but I really think Sofias Number One is a fantastic bet.

3.50 Kempton Call Me A Star 2.98 €10 Lay & place pay too 1.42 €10.00

Looks very short even if this was being run on turf, there are two other NHF race winners in the field and a few others have been placed.

5.10 W'ton Court Applause 6.2 €8.00

Extensively tried off this mark over 6f and seems to consistently find the trip a tad too long, could well find 5f ideal. Ran here once in a maiden and finished 2nd so surface shouldn't inconvenience, the two market leaders both look to have it to do at the current ratings.

7.10 Follow The Flag 9.4 €10.00

I fell this trip is more suitable than 10f, over 10f two runs ago Follow The Flag was beaten a length off 81 in a 0 to 95 at Lingfield, finishing strongly.

Follow The Flag won over 11f in December in a weaker race but isn't badly treated at all at the moment if running to it's best.

Over 8/1 in this 7 runner contest looks like value to me.

7.40 W'ton Captivity 1.3 €30.00 place Lay

Looks a certainty as they say to be placed here, lto was 2nd over CD only beaten 1 1/4l, also ran here over the trip once before and was 2nd that time too. The price is very skimpy though

7.50 Dundalk Discovery Bay 3.2 €8 lay to win

Beaten by over 2l over CD in January, this isn't any easier looking.

8.10 W'ton Poppy Golightly 2.54 €14.00 layed tbp

I don't think this one has the speed for a 7f run here even amongst this lot of poor performers.

8.20 Dundalk First Friday 1.79 €20.00 lay to be placed

Don't quite see how this one is so strong in the market, poorly drawn, mediocre yet consistent form and this isn't too weak a race.

8.50 Dundalk Cave Artist 1.97 €11.00 place lay again.

I don't think this one will relish 12f here, 11f seemed a stretch despite finishing 2nd on one occasion from two attempts. Was tried over hurdles recently too, never keen seeing that in a flat horse's form.

9.15 Dundalk Aragorn Icon 4.4 €11.00 backed to win

5 or 6 of these on adjusted ratings have noting at all between them, Aragorn Icon looks a decent performer though, lto in HC company though beaten 2l the quality of what finished ahead and behind Aragorn Icon does make an impression.

RoverJames

RoverJames wrote: »

1.20 Southwell Sofias Number One 7 €10 & 7.2 €9................

6th

RoverJames wrote: »

3.50 Kempton Call Me A Star 2.98 €10 Lay & place pay too 1.42 €10.00................

2nd

RoverJames wrote: »

5.10 W'ton Court Applause 6.2 €8.00...............

2nd

RoverJames wrote: »

7.10 Follow The Flag 9.4 €10.00................

3rd

RoverJames wrote: »

7.40 W'ton Captivity 1.3 €30.00 place Lay

.............

Won

RoverJames wrote: »

7.50 Dundalk Discovery Bay 3.2 €8 lay to win..............

2nd

RoverJames wrote: »

8.10 W'ton Poppy Golightly 2.54 €14.00 layed tbp..................

5th

RoverJames wrote: »

8.20 Dundalk First Friday 1.79 €20.00 lay to be placed................

7th

RoverJames wrote: »

8.50 Dundalk Cave Artist 1.97 €11.00 place lay again.................

10th

RoverJames wrote: »

9.15 Dundalk Aragorn Icon 4.4 €11.00 backed to win
..................

2nd


-€1.35 today

Some more lays today, the speels will be brief enough as reckoning a horse is underpriced isn't something overly easy to verbalise, nor interesting to read.

1.40 Lingfield Taajub 4.4 €3.00 lay to win and tbp 1.84 €8.0
Taajub to me doesn't look a horse best suited to 5f.

Same race... Six Wives 3.4 €4.0 lay tbp
should struggle in this, can't see featuring.

2.15 Linfield Catalyze 5.8 €4.00 lay tbp
Shouldn't feature at all, place price is actually skimpy compared to what I think it should be by about 20%.

2.45 Lingfield Santefisio 4.8 €2.00 lay to win and tbp Santefisio 1.82 €4.00
6f here off this mark is a tall order.

3.00 Casa Bex 1.71 €5.00 lay tbp

3.20 Lingfield Reposer 4.7 €3.00
In really poor form of late and the drop to 72 shouldn't be enough to bring about a change in fortune

3.35 Kempton Cantor 2.02 €4.00 lay to win and place lay too 1.21 €4.00

Recent CD form less than good in similar standard race, price is no value whatsoever.

3.55 Lingfield Tornado Force 3.25 €5.00 lay to win

10f off this mark looks a challenge, if it were 12f I'd be less inclined to lay but over 10f it looks a decent lay.

Tartan Trip 3.5 €2.00 lay to be place, 10f should be a stretch for this one.

4.10 Kempton Requisite 4.3 €2.50 backed

Can see this one staying on for a place here.

4.30 Lingfield Safwaan 2.34 €10.00 lay tbp

Most of the field are nags and this one doesn't appear to be much better if better at all.

Celtic Charlie 3.75 €12.00 backed

looks to have all boxes, ticked, given the opposition the price doesn't look too bad, I can't pick out two others with a decent chance, I'm reckoning Mister Frosty has it to do on previous 12f from on this surface.

5.50 W'ton Marksbury 3.05 €3.00 lay to win and lay tbp Marksbury 1.5 €6.00

Looks to be priced very short for a horse beaten by 2 3/4l, 4 1/2l and 26l in the last three runs which were all over CD.

6.20 W'ton Bentley 1.94 €12.00 lay tbp

Placed 4 times in 10 career starts over CD, getting on a bit though and last ran 3 days ago here, beaten almost 9l, no claim from the jockey and most of the others do, odds on tbp is too small.

7.50 W'ton Boa 4.1 €11.0

I think over 3/1 is decent for this CD winner who is in form and seems to relish every yard of the 12f trip, especially towards the end. Kames park doesn't look overly convincing for this, I reckon If You Whisper is the main danger in this.

Little in running lay for a bit of insurance.......

Boa
Ref: xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
1.6 €15.00

8.20 W'ton Chapellerie 2.94 €11.00 backed

Niggle that the 7f might be a tad too far but at the adjusted figures has a reallt great opportunity to go in here.

8.50 Fedora 6 €8.00

Looks a tinkle of value for a trip winner not too much higher than that mark, only 4 runners and 5/1

9.20 W'ton Wigrams Turn 7.8 €7.0

Trip might well be ideal for this one, if handicapper has them all in hand the price is a tad fat.