Horses......... lots of lays

More of a log than a challenge, generally fancied yokes as the Betfair prices make laying anything over 6 to 1 ish unfeasible really. Easier to track my rationale in here than in Word or on paper too but perhaps folks might find it interesting. Only €100 being risked.... anything in the ballpark of 3 for every 4 selections loosing and we'll be here a while hopefully.

First lay today Golden Ticket in the 2.05 from Gowran Park, deserves to be favourite and the ground suits but I really fancy Battling Boru to get the better of him in this so it's a lay for me, €7 @ 3.1

........ Good old Battling Boru :rolleyes: :pac:

2.20 Hereford, Round Tom, €7 @ 2.36.
I fancy Teenage Kicks

2.40 Pontefract, My Propellor €9 @ 2.92.

Horrendously short priced due to Jamie being on top me thinks, well worth a lay.

2.50 Hereford, Behtarini, €4 @ 3.5.

95 seems plenty high enough for this lad.

UrbanSea

RoverJames wrote: »

2.40 Pontefract, My Propellor €9 @ 2.92.

Horrendously short priced due to Jamie being on top me thinks, well worth a lay.

Did I read the result correctly,he won by 17 lengths over 6 furlongs :eek::eek::eek:

UrbanSea

UrbanSea wrote: »

Did I read the result correctly,he won by 17 lengths over 6 furlongs :eek::eek::eek:

Yep

Could have one by 40 lengths to be honest, rarely seen the likes of it.

3.00 Hexham Yabora €5 @ 3.9.
The favourite should have the beatings of this one, awful race.

UrbanSea

RoverJames wrote: »

Yep

Could have one by 40 lengths to be honest, rarely seen the likes of it.

I know it's not much good now,but that horse wasn't over priced. Any maidens run at Newmarket are usually very strong,and the third placed runner came out and won a group 3 at Ascot during the week.

Good luck with the rest though

3.10 Pontefract, Adellina Patti €4 @ 5.8, I reckon one or three in this HC will finish ahead of her.

3.10 Hereford, Legends Lass €7 @ 4.2

Thought he'd be shorter.

3.40 Pontefract, Dhamaar €4 @ 3.5.

Don't see him winning this race off 88, ground should to be a negative too.

3.50 Hereford, Laureate Des Loges €4 @ 5.4.

LTO 2nd at Aintree over the same distance, I reckon this is a better race, I fancy the topweight despite it's large price.

I don't do this too often but the 4.00 from Hexham, interests me from a laying perspective, 2m4 1/2 f is somewhat of a non specialist distance in my view, 28lbs spread across the 11 runners.

The favourite What a Steal is bottom weight lay €4 @ 5.5

Also a HC debudant who hasn't completed 2 of it's 6 runs, I'm laying him too, Wings of Smoke, €4 @ 6.2

4.10 Pontefract, €4 @ 5.6, Red Cadeaux. I like ratings, on the ratings it shouldn't win, distance suits it though.

4.20 Hereford, Nicene Creed, €3 @ 4.2

I don't fancy him to see out the trip and I feel he's 2nd fav based on his hurdles ratings. I'd want 2/1 for him to be placed so the 4.2 is plenty short enough for me to lay him.

4.30 Hexham, St Killians Run, €5 @ 2.98.

I don't need to explain this one, distance and rating seem to suggest nothing to fancy here and it's short priced fav, God knows why, might well romp home but I can't see it. Weight of money I imagine.

4.40 Pon, Wells Lyrical, €5 @ 4.7.

Hate these long flat races, anything at that price is a lay in a race like that.

5.00 Hexham, StormBreaker, €6 @ 3.2.

Ground a tad fast for him in this and the market support isn't overwhelming.

5.10 Pon Stagecoach Danman, €6 @ 2.72.

Nice and short for a trappy 1m4f Maiden, if this was 1m6f I wouldn't lay him, call be simple :pac:

5.20 Hereford Sumner €6 @ 2.74.

Can't really see what the this horse is good at, don't think it's 2m chases though

5.40 Pon, Maggie Mey, €4 @ 5.1

too high at 74 me thinks.

19 lays today, 5 won, total - €4.78.

Over the 19 bets my 14 successful lays resulted in Betfair getting €3.05. Of course they made money off the 4 that won too but I'm not overly bothered about that.


......... 12 consecutive losers was a plus though.

6.30 Chepstow Cluain Dara €5 @ 1.83 not to be placed
Quite likely it will be but the odds are tragically short to it's a lay for me.......... same logic €5 against the fav tbp at 1.06.

6.40 Wind, Lady Gabrielle €2 to lose €9.60.
Won a poor race lto over this distance, well worth opposing going in again in this better race.

7.00 Chepstow, On the Feather €4 @ 3.7.

Looks plenty high for me at 66 (bottom weight in a 66 to 73 race). Arguably it's best turf runs have come on soft ground so the ground may well suit but it's still a lay for me.

7.10 Windsor, Dixies Dream €4 @ 3.75

I promise I'm not just laying every fav that comes about
I think in a field this size the good to soft ground should suit at least one of them and I don't think it will be this lad.

7.30 Chepstow Ginzan €4 @ 4

Oops another fav, this lad is up 4lbs for a course and distance 2nd on similar ground last time out, this is a better race though and I really fancy the topweight.

7.40 Windsor Beechcraft Baron, €4 @ 4.8.

HC debutant, topweight in a 15 runner race on GS, 3 runs to it's name, two on GF and one of the AW, could be anything but jockey ensures the price is tight so it's a lay for me.

8.00 Chepstow Kinigi €4 @ 5.5.

Tough one to lay as he's topweight and has won off close enough marks, the good to soft is a negative and I really think the drop back to 6f will bring out the best of the favourite Emiratesdotcom at this course so it's a confident enough law, I don't enjoy laying topweights who have justified their rating though.

8.10 Windsor, Ree's Rascal €4 @ 6.2.

Gone quite high now at 77, won over CD off 67 on good ground and this is a much better race on good to soft, fav has very decent CD form on GS and doesn't look to be too badly handicapped, back to 8f it's the fav for me to this lad is a lay despite the high ish price.

8.20 Kilbeggan, Future All Star €4 @ 5

Pity I missed the 4.5 he was a few mins ago but the 6lb rise for the lto win on yielding ground in a race not as strong as this one marks him out for a lay on this good ground.

8.30 Chepstow, Burj Hatta €10 @ 2.54

The ground is my only reckoning here along with the fact it's a maiden with some who knows whats running against the fav.

8.40 Windsor, Puttingonthestyle €4 @ 3.35

Is good to soft the cure for placeitis?

RoverJames

RoverJames wrote: »

8.40 Windsor..............

Hope both sets of jockeys and horses are ok after that.

8.50 Killbegan, Our Victoria €4 @ 5.8.

Don't see her lasting home and I really like the look of the fav here.

9.00, fav €7 @ 2.3

ground again

RoverJames

€52.81 today, unusually good, the ground was the main factor I would think. Only unsuccessful lay was the very short odds on fav the be placed, other 13 selections all lost.

RoverJames wrote: »

.................... same logic €5 against the fav tbp at 1.06.

Cartel Mike

Fair play James.
Might give this horse laying business a go with small stakes.

Havn't been over the motoring forum in months.

Still driving the ZT?

Cartel Mike

Cartel Mike wrote: »

Fair play James.
Might give this horse laying business a go with small stakes.

Cheers, I've been dabbling at it for ages but rarely stick with it, I'm hoping the log might keep me on track. Was playing with the idea of writing a book/diary but I'm no writer and even 10 lays take a bit to verbalise and the pain in the ass of keeping minutes etc took the joy out of it. The laying can wreck your head though, 4 winners on the trot at decent prices is not good for the spirits. The Betfair commission along with the inflated prices over what's on offer from the bookies makes it very challenging though.

Cartel Mike wrote: »

Still driving the ZT?

Yep , the plan is to keep it another 12 months ish.

6.10 €2 to lose €7.40 on the fav, who has just won :rolleyes:

6.20 Ballinrobe, €5 on Hadrians Waltz not to be placed @ 1.46.

Not a lot to go on in this race but that's a shocking price if you were looking to back something.

6.30 Newton Abbot, Sovereign Spirit, €2 to lose €9.40.

A mark of 90 is plenty for this 9 year old even in this selling company, ground being good to soft won't be a disadvantage though. Worth opposing.

6.50 Ballinrobe, Ashton Rose, €4 @ 4.7.

Up 3lbs after coming 2nd is a similar ish race HC rating wise, this 2 furlong longer though which is a fair step and there are loads of runners.

7.05 NA, WakeBoard €4 @ 3.75.

I hate laying McCoy but I think this horse is more suited to a longer trip over the bigger obstacles. Trip and ground seems ideal for the fav.

7.25 Ballinrobe, Boxer Beat €5 @ 2.0.

2 mile hurdle???? F knows, worth opposing.

7.35 NA, Dunowen Point €4 @ 3.4

HC debutant, Goat Castle finished ahead of some decently rated yokes lto and I reckon the HC er has been less than lenient with the 110 rating of the lay selection.

RoverJames

RoverJames wrote: »

6.10 €2 to lose €7.40 on the fav, who has just won :rolleyes:

RoverJames wrote: »

6.30 Newton Abbot, Sovereign Spirit, €2 to lose €9.40.

A mark of 90 is plenty for this 9 year old even in this selling company, ground being good to soft won't be a disadvantage though. Worth opposing.

Hee hee, I actually had both of these backed :pac: I backed them for €4 and layed them for €2 when my intention was the opposite :pac: Stroke of luck.

7.45 High on the Hog €10 @ 5.0.

I feel guilty after the earlier mistakes that I profited from so risking €40 here

mike65

Thats the kind of detail best omitted or shown in a screen shot.

mike65

mike65 wrote: »

Thats the kind of detail best omitted or shown in a screen shot.

Indeed, I can't really omit it though as my figures wouldn't tally



Those two mistakes resulted in me being up €34 compared to if I had layed them as intended. So the €10 risked on the last selection was either taking advantage of this €34 or else risking the €34, depends how you look at it. That €10 was an increased stake though, it would have been €3 if all bets had gone as intended.

6.30 Naas, Expire, €4 @ 2.76

Will yielding ground make or break this maiden?