Grand Slam Diaries - upsets,gut bets,lame bets,lay bets....

Cartel Mike

Day 4 , Round 2

Gasquet 3-0 over Goulbev 4/5
Llodra v Bogomolov over 38.5 games 4/5
kirelenko over Wozniak 2/7
Melzer/Petzchner over Almagro/Riba (doubles) 1/6


Acca around 7/2 Stake €50

Cartel Mike

ya just had to do it Golubev, couldn't stop yourself

Cartel Mike

Day 5 , Round 3

McHale + 4.5 games v Jankovic Evs
Falla + 4.5 games v Kolschreiber 4/5

Double Stake €23.75

Cartel Mike

Day 6 ,Round 3


Nishikori over Bennetau 17/20
Gasket over Tipsy 4/5
Liz over Kuznetzova 4/6

Treble over 4/1 Stake €50

Cartel Mike

Day 7 , Round 4

kohlscreiber v Del poto over 34.5 games 4/6
Wozniaki v Jankovic over 21.5 games Evs
Li Na over Clijsters 5/4

Treble , Stake €12.96

(Or at least that's what I wanted to stake but I've Spa'd this up now on 365 and this is what I've ended up doing)


€12.96 in 3 doubles , Total stake €38.88

I never want to stake this much on this particular bet as it's just a guess at best. Ah well.

Cartel Mike

Week 1 review

The Breakdown

Day 1 staked €50 lost €50
Day 2 staked €30 lost €30
Day 3 staked €50 lost €50
Day 5 staked €23.75 lost €23.75
Day 7 staked €38.88 lost €38.88

Total loss €192.63


Day 4 staked €50 returned €135
Day 6 staked €50 returned €277.50

Total returns €412.50

Total net returns (minus stakes) €312.50

Total returns €312.50
-
Total loss €192.63

=
Profit (net) +€119.87



Goulbev retired day 4 when he was 6-4 6-1 & 3-0 down in the 3rd set v Gasquet so voiding that selection. He retired cause of the heat(apparently) and so knocked over a hundred euro off that acca. Truth is, is if that scoreline were reversed he'd still be out there now... the ball bag.

And I messed up me stake day 7 by accident cause I'm a spa (with a crap phone).

Other than that haven't had the luck and I'm honestly more surprised than anyone that I'm narrowly out of the brown stuff.


I should really try and give reasoning but I remembered before this slam that I don't actually have to! plus I look thick when I'm wrong ...and I'm mostly wrong.
I had convinced myself I was alright at this stuff cause I got lucky a few times.I'm not.

As a betting event for me anyway the 2nd week is downhill ,less matches , less choice, less markets etc so if you haven't built up enough profit it's tough to keep going.

Why the BBC not showing Murray matches anymore?

Cartel Mike

Day 8 , (Sabbatical)


Name the Finalists with Bet365

Serena/Azarenka 7/2
Nadal/Djokovic 11/4



Double , over 15/1 Stake €10



Game show stylee bet, made over some strong Columbia coffee and toast.
Not mad about the fixtures tonite.


Current balance +€109.87

Cartel Mike

oh dear ^

Cartel Mike

Day 9 , Quarter finals

Azarenka -3.5 games v Radwanska 8/11
Fed - 4.5 games v Del dangero 8/11

Double , nearly 2/1 Stake €50


I'm gambling that both can come out of the blocks quick .
Azarenka is a hot head, who can lose it and Fed lets adrenaline get to him alot these days so it's hardly a certainty .

Cartel Mike

Day 10 ,


Kvitova to win Oz 13/8
Djokovic to win Oz Eve

Double over 4/1 , Stake €50


Choosen this over gambling on tonite's fixtures .Can't really do both as it's not really practical.

It's not that I really fancy this double tbh it's just that if both win tonite the books will start skimming . If both get to the final then their odds will be useless altogether.

I'd like Andy or Fed to win this tbh and anyone but wench Sharapova as that blood curdling screech does my nut.
But as I haven't seen any of this open I've decided to cover these two players for now it's easier to go against them in running if their at least partly covered.

Uncle Tony would agree.


Current balance +€168.37

Cartel Mike

Day 11 , Semifinals

Azarenka v Clijsters over 22.5 games 11/10
Federer to win the 1st set v Rafa 4/6


Double 6/4 , Stake €30


Can't call them.These games are tense ,players just about holding serve and usually needing a deciding set.Obviously this what I'm hoping for in the women's game.

When Fed plays Rafa I always remember him serving first and maybe this gives a very slight advantage to him in 1st set but only works if he serves well. You can't beat a man like Rafa unless your serve well.


Current balance + €138.37

Cartel Mike

Very disappointed re Kvitova.I have an unhealthy obsession with trying to match the outrights. I should leave it, wouldn't mind but I had came up with an ingenious method of covering them both if they'd managed to make the final.
Poor old Fed, I checked his score earlier and it looked like he was goin well I guess he forgot to put kryptonite in the tennis balls again.

Current balance + €243.37

Cartel Mike

Day 12, Semifinals & Women's Doubles

Murray v Djokovic



Andy to win the 1st set and lose the match 9/2


Single , Stake €10



I've seen this movie before , the one where I bet Andy and he looses.Maybe it's just me but doing it again just feels like I'm avoiding reality.

Not really for me this one. If Andy wins the 1st set I'll be happy either way. Haven't seen any of his matches ,maybe he's improved I don't know. Djokovic is one tough nut and if he wins, it will prob make a better final.
Good luck to Andy anyway.


Current balance +€233.37

Cartel Mike

jeez what does the guy have to do...? so close for Andy again .

I apologize for the untidiness of the log . Days 8, 10&12 of course lost .These stakes are already subtracted from the balance.
Days 9 & 11 of course won and are added.. I don't quote back winning posts & results here for a few different reasons. If ya don't follow tennis results
it will seem confusing , if ya don't follow tennis at all then it won't matter.

Cartel Mike

Day 13 , women's final

Azarenka (8/11) & Nadal (13/10) to win final

Double around 3/1 , Stake€50



No I don't think Azarenka should be favourite here . This is someone who has never been to a grand slam final before so all the value is of course with Sharopova who has.
In fact I have no reason at all to justify this bet other than the fact that she is a better player and more mobile. She of course will be far more nervous which cancels that out completely.

Can't justify Nadal either .He's lost 6 in a row to Djokovic and probably rightly so. One small idea might be to think about not letting Djokovic serve first for the first two sets. Maybe Uncle Tony might mention that to him.
I've seen zilch of this open although I have heard that the courts are playing slow... we all know Rafa's game works on a slow court but wheather he can mentally overcome Djocko I really don't know anymore.

Hate betting singles on Tennis. Bookies love it of course as it brings out alot of the right types of high stakes gamblers for them.
Happy to stake €50 on the double and just roll the dice starting with Azarenka tomorrow.

Cartel Mike

Day 14 The Final


Ah well. You win some , loose some , can only take your best shot at the end of the day.


Oz Open final balance +€183.37

Cartel Mike

My last ever attempt at this stupid challenge.

Statisticaly I get battered at the start and and it then turns into a kind of lame recovery challenge from then on.

Cartel Mike

The Nadal open 2012

Cartel Mike

Day 1

Joao Souza tb Stebe 6/5
Rodionova tb Johansson 5/6

Double 2/1 Stake €50



Balance -€50

Cartel Mike

Day 2, Round 1

Andreas Seppi tb Davydenko 1/2
Marcel Granollers tb Sousa 2/9
Brian Baker tb Mallise 4/7
Horacio Zeballos tb Prodon 3-0 7/4


Acca 7/1ish Stake €25


Balance -€75

Cartel Mike

Day 3, Round 1

I'm not going to get any breaks in these damn tie breaks.

Karlovic tb Eduardo Schwank 2/1
Tursunov +4.5 games v Go Soeda 10/11


Double 5/1ish Stake €25


I loathe even the idea of betting on Karlovic and he will just give up if he don't win the first set. Tursunov hasn't played in months.


Their opponents aren't really all that though and I'll just gamble on it.


Balance -€100

Cartel Mike

Day 4 Round 2


Berrer tb Devilder 4/6
Troicki tb The Fog 10/11
S Stephens tb Mattek Sands 8/11

Treble 9/2 Stake €50


Balance -€150

Formation

Cartel Mike wrote: »

Day 13 , women's final Azarenka (8/11) & Nadal (13/10) to win final Double around 3/1 , Stake?50 No I don't think Azarenka should be favourite here . This is someone who has never been to a grand slam final before so all the value is of course with Sharopova who has. In fact I have no reason at all to justify this bet other than the fact that she is a better player and more mobile. She of course will be far more nervous which cancels that out completely. Can't justify Nadal either .He's lost 6 in a row to Djokovic and probably rightly so. One small idea might be to think about not letting Djokovic serve first for the first two sets. Maybe Uncle Tony might mention that to him. I've seen zilch of this open although I have heard that the courts are playing slow... we all know Rafa's game works on a slow court but wheather he can mentally overcome Djocko I really don't know anymore. Hate betting singles on Tennis. Bookies love it of course as it brings out alot of the right types of high stakes gamblers for them. Happy to stake ?50 on the double and just roll the dice starting with Azarenka tomorrow.

trust me when I tell you this with 100% confidence.

Bookies prefer accumulators over singles - on every sport - everytime.

Cartel Mike

Formation wrote: »

Cartel Mike wrote: »

Day 13 , women's final Azarenka (8/11) & Nadal (13/10) to win final Double around 3/1 , Stake?50 No I don't think Azarenka should be favourite here . This is someone who has never been to a grand slam final before so all the value is of course with Sharopova who has. In fact I have no reason at all to justify this bet other than the fact that she is a better player and more mobile. She of course will be far more nervous which cancels that out completely. Can't justify Nadal either .He's lost 6 in a row to Djokovic and probably rightly so. One small idea might be to think about not letting Djokovic serve first for the first two sets. Maybe Uncle Tony might mention that to him. I've seen zilch of this open although I have heard that the courts are playing slow... we all know Rafa's game works on a slow court but wheather he can mentally overcome Djocko I really don't know anymore. Hate betting singles on Tennis. Bookies love it of course as it brings out alot of the right types of high stakes gamblers for them. Happy to stake ?50 on the double and just roll the dice starting with Azarenka tomorrow.

trust me when I tell you this with 100% confidence.

Bookies prefer accumulators over singles - on every sport - everytime.

In general terms yea im not sure many would disagree in principal.
This log is a bad example . Betting 14 days straight against a bookie one one sport - the odds are already stacked against you , it's why I'm discontinuing it .

In a log like this you can't loose more than 3 days in a row , I' ve already lost the first 4 days now and €150. ( I hope your not gonna rub that in lol.)

But in Tennis(like snooker) singles are mostly valueless, that's cause tennis is basically an in-running betting sport only. I can't list in-running bets here but despite the log being down I can find daily in-running games to cover those deficits.

I lost €500 in a pre-match single bet a few weeks back, the guy lost 12-10 in a deciding set tie break.


I have kept a record.In the three set tennis
format ; out of the last 30 tie breaks my record is 3-27 , In the grandslam format it's pretty awfull as well .

In a log like this you can still make a profit on muliples by winning just 30% of them.

Unless your betting on big big underdogs and winning you can't do that with singles. Due to the heavy odds on nature of favourites your strike rate would need to be more than 90% level stakes to land a very small profit .I have little interest in this for a log that only has a potential life span of two weeks at a time.

This is basically a pressure challenge where your trying to hook a big one in the first few days just to keep going, and, have enough to have a crack at the outrights after the first week.

You need alot of luck.


You should start a log/challenge and experience the trials and tribulations.
I can see the problem with this challenge just from reading it back but I made the decision to approach it this way and just take the chance.

Formation

I dont follow tennis at all and see how poor the odds can be on favourites but in these multiple scoring sports - rugby being a good example - the best gamblers are experts on the handicap line at just under evens (usually 10/11) and they only bet singles and aim for a level stakes roi of about 10%.

The art in tennis betting is not betting whether nadal will beat the 50th ranked player in the world but will nadal win by more than 5 games I would imagine from my experience of other sports.

Cartel Mike

Formation wrote: »

I dont follow tennis at all and see how poor the odds can be on favourites but in these multiple scoring sports - rugby being a good example - the best gamblers are experts on the handicap line at just under evens (usually 10/11) and they only bet singles and aim for a level stakes roi of about 10%.

The art in tennis betting is not betting whether nadal will beat the 50th ranked player in the world but will nadal win by more than 5 games I would imagine from my experience of other sports.

Yer I know what you mean and fairness I was goin to scrap this format two slams ago and just do a log (not a challenge) called 'Tennis bets (nice and boring lol)'where I could just make a bet every so often or when I felt like it.
If I loose tomorrow I'll be jacking this thread in anyway so that'll be earlier than expected.

In fairness I've always stuck to singles and doubles in week 2. Here it's muliples first couple days then outrights then singles/doubles with some kind of write-ups.

As the thread title suggests I have never treated it professionally, the light hearted approach is to deflect people from backing bets more than anything.I don't like the idea of being partly responsible for other people loosing money on so-called certs.I still remember doing that with Nadal to beat Djocko @ 4/7 in last year's Wimbledon and I feel bad about it even now.
Nobody is gonna back somebody else's muliples.

Cartel Mike

Day 5 Round 2


Last chance saloon

C McHale tb Davis 2-0 @ 11/10
F Mayer tb Shwank @ 1/3
Pavlychenko tb Czink @ 8/15
Kolschreiber tb L Mayer @ 2/7
Gorgeous tb H Watson @ 3/10

Acca 6/1ish Stake €50


Balance -€200