Grand Slam Diaries - upsets,gut bets,lame bets,lay bets....

Cartel Mike

..................and cake.


I may give up early here and get the Morrisey albums out, but anyway....


Wimbledon 2011.

Prices/Markets- Bet 365
Match results- Online/Ceefax


Win or lose i won't be quoting back posts here. No post-mortems neither.


There's a temptation at Wimbledon to just back anything white, moving and long odds-on. But to make it worthwile, sometimes you have to take risks. This means potentially taking a hit or three.
Upsets will happen in this tournament just like they do in every other. Finding them is the bitch.

There are decent multiple, set betting & lay bets at times if the bookies leave gaps,but they're easy to miss.

There are better qualified punters than me for this kind of stuff. I shouldn't be even doing this really.
I'll be posting stakes but there is no bank/points system here(i'm not that into it) . Keeping this light.

High five.

Cartel Mike

Outrights.

Mens outright- Andy Murray @ 5/1 (Ladbrokes) . Stake - €50
I prefer doing outrights in the shops and the 5/1 is the best i can get in that department.
Andy's a dangerous player and i want to sort this out now before his odds get shorter down the Line.
I don't like his quarter but then again, i don't like Nadal's either.
Andy's reached 3 grand slam finals and hasn't won a set yet so things are looking great already.
He is though world class , Andy has every chance. Fourth round, Quarters, Semi's in previous years and i hope a final is comming this year.

Women's outrights- ?????
A real crap shoot here. I'll leave this one till at least the 3rd round (if at all).

Trying to match-up the outrights here is gonna be fun in the same way scrotal surgery is fun.
Who are the William sisters?

Cartel Mike

Round 1 , day 1, 20th june.

Wash out (rain)

Difficult to see any of the men's games completed day 1.

Of the games scheluded , no evident shocks.Players starting off cold so small accumulator i think.

Cillic tb Ljubicic @ 4/7
Fish tb Granollers 3-0 @ 8/11
kamke tb Kavcic @ 8/15
Muller v Hasse - over 3.5 sets @ 1/2

5/1 acca (pays 6/1)
stake €22.50

Cillic & Kamke have difficult matches here.
I'm not worried as much about the other selections.
Hopefully matches will get completed by tues night.
Would like a decent start to a Grand slam for a change. Fingers crossed.

Cartel Mike

Can't find out when these Kamke and Cillic games are resuming 2morr. I know only too well that these same boyos can still mess things up.

It effects the betting stakes tomorrow now im stuck in no mans land. Hadn't planned ahead for this.

Hopefully there are still games to bet on by the time they finish ,otherwise its just irrelevent in-running for day 2.

Cartel Mike

Round 1 , day 2, june 21st

Cillic is a big spa.

Tursonov 1/3
Dimitrov 4/11
Llodra 1/3
safarova 4/9

Acca= 3.5 (5/2) stake €50

Pussy bet today.

Cartel Mike

Round 2, day 3, June 22nd

More rain forcast.

Tursunov a concern, Have to trust he's not gonna do a Cillic. Motoring on.


Robin Haase ( Van Nistelrooy lookalike) is a fine player on his day and normally i'd chance him at 11/8 against Verdasco today.
With bets still pending i'm gonna play it safer and use the over/under set market with Bet 365.

Haase damm nearly knocked Rafa out of Wimbledon last year in a 5 setter so i'm not worried about him winning a set against a tired Verdasco . I'd be more concerened about Verdasco's tiredness.


Same applies to Muller V Raonic ('the canadian Isner') today.

With two hard hitters clashing ,its almost impossible to imagine either winning this game in straight sets.


Haase V Verdasco - Over 3.5 sets @ 1/2

Raonic V Muller - Over 3.5 sets @ 8/15

Classic even money double.
Stake €50


I have a free €5 bet with Bet365 and thats gonna go on a speculative punt .
Haase tb Verdasco 3-1 @5/1

Cartel Mike

Round 2, day 4, 23rd June

Cloudy.

. Only including games starting after 1pm.
Mood - playfull.


Soderling over Hewitt 2/7
F gonzalez over De Voest
Isner over Almagro 4/9
Tursunov v Melzer -over 3.5 sets 4/9


Acca around 3/1 or so Stake €30

=Today's chicken bet.


Mayer over Malisse 5/4
Seppi over Baggy 10/11
Lizisiki over Na Li 11/10
Tanasugarn over Kirelenko 5/6

50/50 'underdog' experiment games 16.5 - Stake €25

Cartel Mike

Usually put bets on before i'd post them here. Today i missed out on some key matches. It happens.

Bought clippers yesterday . Shaved head . One buzz cut all over. I remember now how it don't suit me at all. Look dreadfull if i'm honest.

Cartel Mike

Cartel Mike wrote: »

Round 2, day 4, 23rd June

Cloudy.

. Only including games starting after 1pm.
Mood - playfull.


Soderling over Hewitt 2/7
F gonzalez over De Voest
Isner over Almagro 4/9
Tursunov v Melzer -over 3.5 sets 4/9


Acca around 3/1 or so Stake €30

=Today's chicken bet.


Mayer over Malisse 5/4
Seppi over Baggy 10/11
Lizisiki over Na Li 11/10
Tanasugarn over Kirelenko 5/6

50/50 'underdog' experiment games 16.5 - Stake €25

sorry guys that first acca there is 5/2 not 3/1 . I was rushing to get them in and i don't like putting up incorret odds dosn't matter if they win or loose.

The 2nd acca is 16.5 or 15/1 ish and they're all underdogs that may not win(probably wont) but €25 was worth the risk to find out for me.

Slept in today and i 'text' my posts using a phone. Its not easy at the best of times so apologies for the mistakes.

Cartel Mike

Day four sucked ass.
Was going ok till now but i lost €55 today.
Completly under estimated Almagro.
First and last time i'll back Isner probably.

Taking into account that there is no value in backing favourites, whatever point in taking them in the first place is completley lost if they loose the 1st set.
In-running bets in the 1st week essential to getting any value.

Anyone see Federer sleep walk through his match today?
He only really woke up when he had to walk off at the end of the match.

Anyway, waiting on markets to be written up so i've takin a stab at the outrights.

At the french, Nadal was the key to matching the outrights. There's no such anchor at Wimby.

The Women's is just as bad.
Sharapova is the fav due to the draw.
She has practically a bye into the Semi's, the only player she meets before that is Wozniaki who isn't really a player at all.

Four women have the X factor.
Serena, Venus,Kvitova &Lisicki. Take your pick.

Yea i've jumped on the Lisicki train. She has the tennis to murder Sharapova in the semis if she were to actually get there.

Lets face it though , Serena will probably distract her with her milkshakes in the quarters before that.

All about taking a punt.

€10 Lisicki @ 9/1.
€10 Lisicki + Murray @ 60/1

and a saver on

Nadal + Lisicki €10 @ 30/1

Total stake €30


.watch Serena and the Fed win it now.

Cartel Mike

Round 2&3 ,Day 5, 24th june.

Bright sunny.

Cibulkova tb Goerges @ evs
Gasquet tb Bolelli 3-0 @ 4/6
Monfils v Kubot - over 3.5 sets @ 8/11
Fish v Haase - over 36.5 games @ 8/15

Acca around 8/1 stake €25

All these lines look generous to me.

Cartel Mike

Don't like Roddick , was tempted to back F. Lopez to beat him today @11/4 , would be good for tennis, but with a 7-0 head to head, Roddick unfortunatley is Lopez's Daddy and it can't be ignored.

Can't see why kubot can't win a set v Monfils. This is Monfils were talkin about not Rafa.
A Few tie breakes in Fishy's game would help the over's. Van Nistlerooy isn't exactly a mug, he should take a set on grass even if fishy rountined 3-0 at the french few weeks back.

Cibulkova has more Grass experience and has a cooler temper than Goerges. But it'll be tight.

Bolleli shouldn't be the 3rd round of a slam and is only here cause Wawrinka is a spa. Gausquet in 3 sets was the first bet i thought of.

Bet 365 didn't put up most of these lines till 9.30am , they're a bit crafty.

Cartel Mike

Day 6 , round 3 June 25th

Weather - who cares.

I need a banker, something that i can stake €50 on.
There a few close mens games day 6 that are pretty even and it reflected in their odds.
Great for in-running but i think poor for pre or fixed odds betting as they could be topsy turvy 5 setters.

Placed a treble

Soderling tb Tomic 3-0 @ 4/5
Lisiki tb Doi 2-0 @ 4/11
Peng tb Czink @ 1/3

Around 9/4 stake €50

I like this much more than my last bet (which unfortunatley could still go either way).

I try an cover stakes in running usually on players you know are gonna come back from a bad game or sloppy set.

Anyway ,Feet up .
Nalbandy rolls the years back against Federer.Fantastic. Won't be betting on this one but Nalby's the dogs bollox.

Cartel Mike

1st Week ending review.

This is the part i hate so since i'm taking tomorrow off i wanna get it out of the way pronto.

I've been both lucky and unlucky in equal measures.
Soderling looks injured but wheather he retires now or not, day 6 bet is no good cause he still lost the first set .

Day 1 staked €22.50
Day 4 staked total of €55
Day 6 staked €50

These bets were no good

Total loss €127.30


Day 2 staked €50 - Returned €175.08

Day 3 staked total of €55 - Returned €100

Day 5 staked €25 - Returned €220.70

Total Returns €495.78

These returns minus stakes (€130) = Profit €365.78

Total Profit €365.78
minus
Total loss €127.50

is a profit of €235.28

Since Haase (van Nistlerooy) notched up 1 solitary game against fish in the 4th set before he pissed off, that ment that Bet 365 paid out on that 8/1 acca as even if fish won the fourth set 6-1 the total games could only have ended in a minimum of 37 games which was over the spread of 36.5 .
Lesser firms may have found a way to void that selection and only pay out on a treble - not bet365.

Ok i'm still seething with Soderling here and i hope he looses his game today.

I'm taking a day's break from this tomorrow and concentrating on some in-running and lay bets instead.

Cartel Mike

Additional info.

Don't know whats going on with Andy (Muzza) . When you see someone talkin to themselves on the court like a mentalist things don't bode well.
If he goes down 2 sets and a break against Gasquet on monday he won't be comming back this time thats for sure.

Fell in love with Aravane Rezai , have decided now that she's the woman for me.
Being a pasty gambling(and recently made skinhead) Irishman from Donegal i'm quite certain that i tick all her boxes.

Watch this space.
I'll be in there quicker than Ted Walsh can say 'He's a good horse'.

Cartel Mike

Day 8, round 4 27th june

31 degrees- Scorchio


A stress free day is what i'm after today so i havn't even tried looking for upsets. Its not as if i've found any thus far anyway.

Worst odds acca ever...

Fed tb Youzny in 3 @3/10
Wozniaki tb Cibulokova@2/9
Kvitova tb Wickwayer@2/7
Lisicki tb Cetw§*~ @2/9
F Lopez tb Kubot@ 3/10

Acca around 9/4 Stake €50

That acca looks on. But as everyone well knows sometimes accas look so on, cause there wrong. I hope thats not whats goin on here.

Wouldn't put anyone off Tomic nor even Gasquet for that matter.
Even Fishy might have a squeak against the bird man.

I can't be getting involved, confidence low.

Cartel Mike

Yea day 8 was no good with €50 gone off the profit leaving me with €185.28 of it left .

Fed loosing the 1st set and the Wizard of Wozno fading into utter oblivian in 3.

Wrong selections cause fishy and tom were the decent prices.

Cartel Mike

Day 9, Quarter finals 28th june

Wet patches.

Most of its going in today

Lisisiki tb Bartel @10/11

Single. Stake €150

Go Liz.

Cartel Mike

Good girl Liz.
You gonna need them drop shots working against the screecher and then some.

€321.64

decent games 2morrow prob wont get to see em.

Cartel Mike

Day 10 ,wed 29th June
mens quarter finals

Looks like more rain - Delays possible

Can't find any single bets i like so another iffy acca for me

Fish +6.5 games v Rafa @ 8/13
Muzza v Lopez -over 3.5 sets @ 11/10
Tsonga v Fed - over 3.5 sets@5/6
Djocko v Tom - Under 32.5 games 5/6

Acca around 11/1 Stake €20

Never use the player hcap markets before, i think there a bit gay tbh but i don't know what to do with the Fish.
This way he can still loose in 3 sets and still have squeak at covering the hcap.
Rafa prefers his opponents to serve first even if he wins the toss which helps the fish.
If fishy can just bring that 1st set to a tie-break and avoids any double breaks after that, i can't see Rafa beat that hcap ..no?

Which Muzza shows up? The one that talks to himself or the one that looks like he be smokin the herb before a Gasquet game.
This game is a kinda evening game and will prob be under the roof . Both these kinda games so far Murray has talked to himself and dropped a set. Over 3 sets is a 5/6 shot at least . Here its on offer for 11/10.
Plus Lopez a fantastic grass player and server.

The Tsonga man is flying it and its a pity that he's up against the g.o.a.t. 2morrow as he'd have a better chance against even Rafa. He's the most likley to cause an up set here and i'm gonna back him to take a set.

I havn't seen this Tomic dude play, apparently (obviously) he's good . But, apparently he let slip to a journo that he had a practice match with Djocko a few weeks back and he got destroyed. I suppose thats good enough for me.

I think if ya gonna do an acca ya might as well do em with 2-way markets.
I like 2-way markets.

Cartel Mike

Nah , rubbish.

Djocko rubbish too.

Cartel Mike

No good day 10.
€301.64 (€300)

Wimby now without The Williams & the Fed. Hardly seems natural.

Bet 365 latest odds for anyone who's interested.

Rafa 5/4
Djocko 11/5
Murray 4/1
Tsonga 13/2


Sharapova 5/4
Azarenka 3/1
Kvitova 3/1
Lisicki 11/2

I think this probably last chance to play mix an match.
Anyone matching the two favs?

Derek!

What's your most likely outright winner in the mens and womens tennis Mike?

Cartel Mike

Derek! wrote: »

What's your most likely outright winner in the mens and womens tennis Mike?

Its a tough one Derek , gonna try and do the women's matches tonite but i can't remember when there was so many opportunities to cover bets.

Rafa isn't human so obviously the other guys are disadvantaged . Must check if each-way bets can be done still.

At the mo i think Kvitova is a dark horse as she could beat Sharapova or Lisicki int the final.

On any day Rafa is beatable too but Djocko has a tough one against the Tsonaga man.

Worth doing 2 match ups at least i think.

I'll prob decide 2morrow.

You a Sharapova man Dereck ?

Derek!

Yea I would be but I dont really know a lot about tennis to be honest.
I was just goin to put a few euro on a double of the winners of both the mens and womens for some interest.
You seem to know your stuff about it though so maybe I'll just copy you

Cartel Mike

Derek! wrote: »

Yea I would be but I dont really know a lot about tennis to be honest.
I was just goin to put a few euro on a double of the winners of both the mens and womens for some interest.
You seem to know your stuff about it though so maybe I'll just copy you

Don't be fooled or listen to me Derek if you want ta keep your money... honestly!

I'm in a fix Derek cause
I already have 80 euro of bets pending

Tener on Murray+ Liz at 60/1
+ Tenner on Rafa + Liz @ 30/1
&and a tener on Liz @9/1

€50 on Murray 5/1 too
(on page 1)

so no guesses who i'd like to win

Maybe i should stick to me guns but i prob should start being realistic too.

Sharapova has found some form now so its a pain in the ass for me.

Depending on how that sharap v Liz match goes Derek i'll tell ya what i'm matching up tomorr afternoon.

Cartel Mike

Day 11 , 30th June Women semi finals

Mostly dry.

Kvitova tb Azarenka @ 4/5

Single. Stake €112

Far as im concerned it would take a spectacular colapse by Kvitova not to make the Final. €112 to make €100 is worth the risk.
She's won the 1st set in every game on her favourite surface and has lost only 1 set thus far in a tight tie break. No point in over thinking this one.


Not really getting involved in the other semi.
Sharapova is around 1.4 on the exchanges which is low imo against a player who has the perfect grass game and a big serve. Lisicki will have break opportunities in this game.

I'll wait to see if Sharapova wins the first set and her odds drop to 1.1 or similiar. Thats Lay material for me.

Derek!

Thanks Mike I wont be bettin much anyway so no worries if you get it wrong

Cartel Mike

Yea a topsy turvy day 11, with Petra Kvitova goin through but Liz crashing out.
Online profit - €403.24

€30 out of pocket in the shops with Lisiki crashing 3 of the outrights with no chance to cover them.
So outrights - (minus) €30

Not really gonna get any value on those now.

Cartel Mike

Derek! wrote: »

Thanks Mike I wont be bettin much anyway so no worries if you get it wrong

hey derek i'm goin down the shops 2morr and i'm sticking a Tenner on Kvitova +Murray -pays around 13/1

both have decent chances and represent value.

But derek if you take a punt and then watch Andy's match tomorrow i want to sincerley apologise in advance if Andy goes two sets down you have to listen to commentator Andrew Castle clutching at straws when Murray is 5-2 down in the 3rd.

Murray's gotten close to Rafa now close enough to do what Tsonga did to Federer yesterday. I think the eventual winner will emerge from that game.

Good luck man.

Cartel Mike

Day 12, July 1st. Men's Semi final

Bright.

Tsonga tb Djocko @7/4
Rafa v Muzza - over 3.5 sets @ 4/9

Double 14/5 Stake €50



Come on Tim