Winter 2011/2012

garyha

Mark Vogan Discusses the WHYS behind his winter forecast

http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=MmWo0rxCa5Y#!

patneve2

Interesting temperature differences (massive ones actually) in Eastern Turkey...probably due to wind effects...

Su Campu

patneve2 wrote: »

Interesting temperature differences (massive ones actually) in Eastern Turkey...probably due to wind effects...

It's elevation-related. The minus numbers are at around 1700-1800 metres, the warmer ones are along the Black Sea (Trabzon, Hopa, etc.).

Hover over these stations

http://www.ogimet.com/cgi-bin/gsynop?lang=en&esc=4&nav=Yes&lat=45N&lon=045E&proy=orto&base=bluem&ano=2011&mes=12&day=20hora=18&vte=Te

garyha

matthew8

No need to start losing the faith guys. We're around one month into the snow window (or as some like to call it, winter), 2 months to go at least and IIRC the 2 years before last had no snow at this point but got plenty of snow in the end.

nacho libre

Deep Easterly wrote: »

Not exactly a "Bartlett" high (hate that nametag) but a fairly similar set up during the phenomenal wet spell during the 2nd half of Nov 2009:



.

If anyone had said five- six weeks after that chart was first posted we'd be in a deep freeze, they would likely have been greeted with deep skepticism. so it just goes to show while the current output looks bleak, anything could happen between now and the end of January.

davidsr20

Is mt sticking with a cold snowy jan/feb?

PurpleSt4in

This thread + Mild weather =

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_QR9QP0Rjsc

Calibos

PurpleSt4in wrote: »

This thread + Mild weather =

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_QR9QP0Rjsc

+1

Its like Spongebob is standing outside the door of the forum and exclaiming,

"Move along now....nothing to see here...."

Wild Bill

davidsr20 wrote: »

Is mt sticking with a cold snowy jan/feb?

Keeps getting pushed back - expect cold weather to finally arrive in July.

As usual

Elmer Blooker

http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?p=72875786

Posted on June 20th:
I'm not really surprised that this winter is going from bad to worse, I'm convinced that we wont see anything wintry until March at least.

Wild Bill

Depressingly good call Elmer :cool:!

(I'm trying to provoke the weather gods by dismissing this "winter"...but they may be on to me)

blackius

I dunno now lads but all this warm air advection into Scandinavia and Russia can only mean one thing...a high will build there eventually.
Probably in less than a month,maybe sooner.

WolfeIRE

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XLaFCIoiiow

mcriot29

Well well we may have some good news on the 23 rd piers has called a metting to tell us about jan 2012 , will he be telling us what mark vogan has been saying since june a big freeze is on the way , the answer is most likely a big yes , however piers also said it in oct and it did nothappen ,still maybe he will guess correct this time
Roll on 1947 type winter in jan 2012 - 25 and 8 foot drifts lol

Elmer Blooker

WolfeIRE wrote: »

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XLaFCIoiiow

Look at the blue colour in SE Europe where it will be colder than normal and then look at the last post in Fantasy Island Winter Charts thread (me)
I'm still not sure who made that forecast (was it Joe B?) but it looking good whoever it was.

mcriot29

Elmer i see you have same postcode as me d9 are you in beaumont artane

blackius

Elmer Blooker wrote: »

I'm still not sure who made that forecast (was it Joe B?) but it looking good whoever it was.

3 weeks ago,the holly round here was full of berries,weighted down with them in fact,a bumper crop.
It's now all gone.
Not a berry left.No they haven't been chopped down by humans.

The animals and birds are preparing for something.

mcriot29

Lol yes a mild jan
Joke nmaybe they are but if so how come the postman weather guy has said a normal winter ahead , he goes by nature so im sure he would have spotted the birds and berrys.

Su Campu

blackius wrote: »

3 weeks ago,the holly round here was full of berries,weighted down with them in fact,a bumper crop.
It's now all gone.
Not a berry left.No they haven't been chopped down by humans.

The animals and birds are preparing for something.

Or it might just be that they see all the berries and naturally think hey this is great!!

Joe Public

What do the birds know? they don't even have computers or mobiles.

TheMilkyPirate

blackius wrote: »

I dunno now lads but all this warm air advection into Scandinavia and Russia can only mean one thing...a high will build there eventually.
Probably in less than a month,maybe sooner.

blackius wrote: »

3 weeks ago,the holly round here was full of berries,weighted down with them in fact,a bumper crop.
It's now all gone.
Not a berry left.No they haven't been chopped down by humans.

The animals and birds are preparing for something.

A change of tune BB. Didn't think you were one for the nature signs.

nacho libre

Elmer Blooker wrote: »

Look at the blue colour in SE Europe where it will be colder than normal and then look at the last post in Fantasy Island Winter Charts thread (me)
I'm still not sure who made that forecast (was it Joe B?) but it looking good whoever it was.

The forecast was made by accuweather, but not Joe Bastardi, he left that organisation some time ago. By the way even if the stratosphere stays cold, i don't see how you can say you're convinced we won't see anything wintry till March, yes, it maybe more likely we won't, but i recall even in predominantly mild winters we had decent topplers in February.

Birdnuts

Does anyone else think the latter stages of recent ECM runs look rather odd

nacho libre

Birdnuts wrote: »

Does anyone else think the latter stages of recent ECM runs look rather odd

is it this chart you mean?

tylercollins

Mark Vogan is going against everyone else and is going for snowfall from Christmas Eve and onwards in the North of the UK.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0dXn_9VY3BQ

Su Campu

This guy Vogan is another annoying Madden to me. He waffles on and on but says nothing except repeating how "he's been saying this all week, folks", etc. His arguments don't hold water. He said we'd see a pattern change to cold starting some time from last weekend but it's gone the complete opposite way and he won't admit it. The reason he's giving for snow on Saturday is pathetic too, as warm air is actually moving in from the west, not back from the east! Only the highest parts of Scotland will see snow then. He just wants to make the same sort of claims as Madden et al.

Plus, I don't think you'll find Galway in the "far south" of Ireland, with Cork, but we can forgive him this I suppose!

It seems anyone at all can post any old crap on Youtube and they become a guru overnight. :rolleyes:

nacho libre

tylercollins wrote: »

Mark Vogan is going against everyone else and is going for snowfall from Christmas Eve and onwards in the North of the UK.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0dXn_9VY3BQ

It seems he is the type of person that can't admit when they're wrong. Either that or he just wants notoriety. I suspect that's definitely what Madden is up to with his forecasts.

Su Campu

nacho libre wrote: »

It seems he is the type of person that can't admit when they're wrong. Either that or he just wants notoriety. I suspect that's definitely what Madden is up to with his forecasts.

SNAP!

Wild Bill

blackius wrote: »

3 weeks ago,the holly round here was full of berries,weighted down with them in fact,a bumper crop.
It's now all gone.

I noticed that too.

Last year there was also a good crop of holly berries but they survived right through the freezing December (and the following months) into Spring.

I doubt the birds are predicting anything - maybe the berries are easier to eat when the aren't frozen!