Winter 2011/2012

Pangea wrote: »

How come Exacta weather are getting so much news coverage?
Have they a good record for forecasting cold winters?

Exacta weather did last year for the most part correct but got the start of the year wrong. They said the summer will be dull and cool while others said we will have a BBQ summer.

The rags like to blow things out of proportion. Exacta weather said October snow just in one line and the media played it as it is going to happen.

The media are taking a sensationalist approach to sell papers. Not one of these papers have actually interviewed James on why he said October just refering to his forecast.

I bet James regrets saying it now.

Snow and cold lovers wont like this, the UK Meto near normal temps Temps from Dec to Feb http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/images/prob_ensemble/20111001/3up_20111001_temp2m_months35_europe_prob_public.png

delw wrote: »

suppose it all depends on what type of winter people are hoping for but some will be disappointed either way

Yeah but as long as the damp lovers are disappointed all is grand !

Musicman2000 wrote: »

Snow and cold lovers wont like this, the UK Meto near normal temps Temps from Dec to Feb http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/images/prob_ensemble/20111001/3up_20111001_temp2m_months35_europe_prob_public.png

Well the Met Office doesn't have a great record on long term forecasts. They don't give them out any more due to getting it completely wrong all the time.

well lokking at mo's track record i'd prob go with the opposite to what their forecasting, so all is still good for snowlovers :P

bb1234567 wrote: »

your ovo talking bout me ye i know my hopes are set to high and am just hoping, i'll be sad if it doesnt snow but i'll get over it evenually:p

Not just yourself:) be very intertsting to see MT's winter outlook, and the netweather winter outlook is out this week as well, Fingers crossed for a cold one

Lucreto wrote: »

Any idea when this week they will be released?

Not sure which day, should be close to the end of the week, looks like the evening herlad are jumping on the cold bandwagon, but its quoted from James Madded again:rolleyes: http://www.herald.ie/news/new-ice-age-on-the-way-but-its-just-a-little-one-2901083.html

Musicman2000 wrote: »

Snow and cold lovers wont like this, the UK Meto near normal temps Temps from Dec to Feb http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/images/prob_ensemble/20111001/3up_20111001_temp2m_months35_europe_prob_public.png

Its a joke article but

http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/features/3862336/You-better-ask-a-baby-about-weather.html

fizzycyst wrote: »

Kieran Hickey, Climatologist in NUIG was just interviewed on RTE news re cold weather patterns in northern Europe. He seems to think that increased sun activity this year will bring a milder winter, although he did say it's by no means a certainty.

I was told it takes a year for any increase in activity to have any effect. I don't know how many sunspots we had last year but we are still 60% down that it should be at a maximum.

I'm starting to believe it's going to be milder this year,too many are expecting snowmaggedin but I think were all jinksing it!

Can anyone recall the weather pattern this time last year?was it wind and rain like now?

I have a winter forecast basically "sketched out" from the research analysis and the plan is to include it with the daily forecast on Thursday 13th.

No sneak previews, but I promise it won't be a "mild southwesterly" all winter prediction.

Increased solar activity in recent months factors into the research model but the basic principle here is that milder long-term trends normally follow several years of higher than normal activity. Some of the coldest winters have actually come during the "ramp up" period of active solar cycles, and with the recent four year solar quiet spell, this developing cycle reminds me more of a low to moderate peak in the Dalton or the late 19th century periods. Those were epic times for cold winters whether the sun was slightly active or not.

But even 1947, one of the most prolific of cold snowy winters, came just before a very active peak that spanned roughly 1947 to 1950. Other examples of cold winters that came just before, or at, solar max include 1917, 1979 and 1838. Probably 1987 could also be considered as solar activity was beginning to "turn on" again that year. The very high peak of 1957-58 was preceded by a cold winter in 1956 when the Sun was getting towards the level of activity normally seen in less notable cycles. So all in all, the "concept" of cold winters requiring quiet sun can rather easily be disproven. It's really just the background colder averages of the Maunder and Dalton periods that led to this concept in the first place. There's something to be said for the more refined concept that cold winters seem to fall more frequiently than random during periods of increasing solar activity, while mild winters seem to cluster on the other side of the roller coaster. But these are far from inflexible rules, just tendencies that I've spotted in my data analysis.

In any case, the physical cause and effect that relates weather patterns to solar activity must be more complicated than just signal and response because different regions display different signatures relative to solar activity and yet we're all subject to the same changes in the incoming solar radiation (which tends to be somewhat greater during active solar periods -- despite the cooler nature of sunspots themselves, the Sun belts out more radiation during its active phases).

If I can find some good graphs to illustrate, I may return to this discussion with those in a day or two, at the moment my own research material is on a computer not connected to this internet computer and I would need to copy the graphs I can see in my "office" here most probably by hand as the two machines don't connect very easily (this will gradually cease to be a problem because the data base itself has been transferred).

I'm new to boards......... have been following the weather threads with great interest for the past couple of years so thought I'd join up this year and join in - hoping also to educate myself a little!

I'm not skilled in the art of predicting weather, however I do posess the wonderful gift of being a snow lover so I am too hoping for more of what we've had the past couple of years.

Watching MT. Cranium's posts like a hawk and looking forward to his winter predicition later this week.

Based in Dublin and it's just too warm here today for my liking