Winter 2011/2012

pistolpetes11

Sponge Bob wrote: »

A stiff blast of dry easterlies is precisely what I have in mind from early February, one that holds the moist Atlantic at bay, hence no snow of any note.

Is there such a thing as a dry easterly ?

Wild Bill

pistolpetes11 wrote: »

Is there such a thing as a dry easterly ?

Is there any other sort of easterly?

nacho libre

Wild Bill wrote: »

Is there any other sort of easterly?

yes.

Wild Bill

Ah come on!

Unless it's the topside of an Atlantic low any wind from the east will be dry, relatively speaking.

When we get (real) snow here there is usually amazing drying between the showers; or a pause in the rain leads to the ground drying.

In my case I can tell an easterly when touching the car door handle gives a static shock.

Best to put your palm flat in the bodywork before making any point contact. :eek:

TheMilkyPirate

Wild Bill wrote: »

Ah come on!

Unless it's the topside of an Atlantic low any wind from the east will be dry, relatively speaking.

When we get (real) snow here there is usually amazing drying between the showers; or a pause in the rain leads to the ground drying.

In my case I can tell an easterly when touching the car door handle gives a static shock.

Best to put your palm flat in the bodywork before making any point contact. :eek:

Conductive showers from the Irish sea bring quite a lot of snow in an easterly.

nacho libre

Wild Bill wrote: »

Ah come on!

Unless it's the topside of an Atlantic low any wind from the east will be dry, relatively speaking.

ek:

the events of 82, 87, 91 say otherwise.

Sponge Bob

82 was a soggy Atlantic front getting mugged by an easterly as it crossed Ireland Nacho. I emigrated for the other 2. Soon as the front was mugged in 82 the dominant easterly then set in and deep froze us all.

It only snowed the once in the western half of Ireland. Perhaps Dublin got some topup streamers when the easterly wind was stiff. Can't remember as I was trapped in Galway.

Wild Bill

baraca wrote: »

Conductive showers from the Irish sea bring quite a lot of snow in an easterly.

And snow with low humidity.

Jesus guys - I know we get snow on the East coast with easterly winds! The fact is that the humidity, as soon a precipitation ceases, is much lower in E winds than W winds,

The static test is the clincher. You simply don't get it in wind from the Atlantic.

Strangegravy

For any cold lovers out there who are starting to think we're running out of time for a decent cold snap this winter, just remember this:

January AND February are on average colder months than November and December. Even March, on average, is as cold if not a small bit colder than November.

So taking the above 5 months as our "potentially wintery" months, November is on average the warmest of them... And we've all seen an example quite recently of what kind of a cold setup can happen in November!!

Obviously there are no guarantees, but take heart in the fact that the window of opportunity for a decent cold spell doesn't really close for another 5-8 weeks.

Enjoy the rollercoaster!!

Northclare

Strangegravy wrote: »

For any cold lovers out there who are starting to think we're running out of time for a decent cold snap this winter, just remember this:

January AND February are on average colder months than November and December. Even March, on average, is as cold if not a small bit colder than November.

So taking the above 5 months as our "potentially wintery" months, November is on average the warmest of them... And we've all seen an example quite recently of what kind of a cold setup can happen in November!!

Obviously there are no guarantees, but take heart in the fact that the window of opportunity for a decent cold spell doesn't really close for another 5-8 weeks.

Enjoy the rollercoaster!!

I think the only problem from this time onwards is we have longer days and it will melt much quicker

Sponge Bob

Not if the wind is coming from somewhere cold. In February 1895 for example these were the daily record lows in the UK (Probably all from Braemar in Scotland )

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Winter_of_1894%E2%80%9395_in_the_United_Kingdom

The record minima set for these dates in February 1895 (C)

7th: -21.7
8th: -25.0
9th: -23.9
10th: -25.6
11th: -27.2 < (SB NOTE This is still the all time UK record , it has been matched precisely twice since but not beaten)
12th: -20.6
13th: -21.9
14th: -21.7
16th: -23.9
17th: -23.9
18th: -23.9
19th: -22.2

Northclare

Sponge Bob wrote: »

Not if the wind is coming from somewhere cold. In February 1895 for example these were the daily record lows in the UK (Probably all from Braemar in Scotland )

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Winter_of_1894%E2%80%9395_in_the_United_Kingdom

The record minima set for these dates in February 1895 (C)

7th: -21.7
8th: -25.0
9th: -23.9
10th: -25.6
11th: -27.2 < (SB NOTE This is still the all time UK record , it has been matched precisely twice since but not beaten)
12th: -20.6
13th: -21.9
14th: -21.7
16th: -23.9
17th: -23.9
18th: -23.9
19th: -22.2

But if you work from a ratio point of view I think my theory will win outright I work as a gardener and seen snow falls which last an hour or two in March even one good Friday during the late 90s and it had melted within the same time it took to fall but it would be nice to get a cold snap but there is far too many invisable blow driers hitting us left right and center......

Sponge Bob

Statistically you are correct but I am saying that notable cold snaps in the past have coincided with an easterly cold setup and that as late as April. The April 1998 cold snap ruined me Petunias and Impatien, had snow fallen too it would likely have remained on the ground.

Northclare

Sponge Bob wrote: »

Statistically you are correct but I am saying that notable cold snaps in the past have coincided with an easterly cold setup and that as late as April. The April 1998 cold snap ruined me Petunias and Impatien, had snow fallen too it would likely have remained on the ground.

LOL I remember loosing a few hundred Impatience hardening off outside that year anyway we might get a good cold one yet....

K_1

Data from Kilkenny met station for Feb 86 shows:
No ice days
Mean max of 3.6
Mean min of -0.5
Mean of 1.4.

Monthly max was 6.3
Monthly min was -4.3
Total precipitation for the month of just 3.8mm!

Also, air pressure didn't drop below 1006 for the entire month, averaging at 1018, and mean humidity for the month was only 72%.

Snow/Hail recorded on 13 days, only 2 of which actually registered (above 0.25mm rainfall equivalent).

All in all a very strange month!


Also, a min of -7.9 was recorded on the 3rd March that year, 2nd lowest March temp recorded in Kilkenny (1886 was lower).
Mild weather arrived on 4th March.

Northclare

K_1 wrote: »

Data from Kilkenny met station for Feb 86 shows:
No ice days
Mean max of 3.6
Mean min of -0.5
Mean of 1.4.

Monthly max was 6.3
Monthly min was -4.3
Total precipitation for the month of just 3.8mm!

Also, air pressure didn't drop below 1006 for the entire month, averaging at 1018, and mean humidity for the month was only 72%.

Snow/Hail recorded on 13 days, only 2 of which actually registered (above 0.25mm rainfall equivalent).

All in all a very strange month!


Also, a min of -7.9 was recorded on the 3rd March that year, 2nd lowest March temp recorded in Kilkenny (1886 was lower).
Mild weather arrived on 4th March.

My Dad often mentions the big freeze during the 60s in his Kerry Accent he says snow stayed on the ground till mid March

Deep Easterly

K_1 wrote: »

Total precipitation for the month of just 3.8mm!

A very dry month alright. Shannon Airport's Feb 86 total was just 0.8mm, and 0.9mm at Galway. Highest monthly total was a whopping 19.5mm at Valentia.

nacho libre

Sponge Bob wrote: »

82 was a soggy Atlantic front getting mugged by an easterly as it crossed Ireland Nacho. I emigrated for the other 2. Soon as the front was mugged in 82 the dominant easterly then set in and deep froze us all.

It only snowed the once in the western half of Ireland. Perhaps Dublin got some topup streamers when the easterly wind was stiff. Can't remember as I was trapped in Galway.

Yeah the west of Ireland rarely gets much snow from an easterly once it takes hold, only a few light snow flurries usually from a dying trough. Dublin saw significant snowfall in 1982. So while an easterly can be dry, there are some that deliver decent snow events!

pistolpetes11

What a run by the CFS , nearly 14 days of sub -5/6 uppers

Posted it up in the FI thread

Wild Bill

nacho libre wrote: »

Yeah the western of Ireland rarely gets much snow from an easterly once it takes hold, only a few light snow flurries usually from a dying trough. Dublin saw significant snowfall in 1982. So while an easterly can be dry, there are some that deliver decent snow events!

But in the Feb '86 episode the east coast got no snow - it was bone dry, very sunny and freezing most of the time.

nacho libre

Wild Bill wrote: »

But in the Feb '86 episode the east coast got no snow - it was bone dry, very sunny and freezing most of the time.

Yes. I see what you're saying, if this cold spell does come off we could be unlucky - in order for it to be snowy, i think we need to see the Russian/Scandinavian high extend far west enough to bring us a direct easterly or more preferably an east to north-easterly, bringing the cold air right across from eastern Russia. Not be a party pooper, but the danger is that it doesn't of course. i guess that's why the UK Met Office are hedging their bets. We crucially needs to see pressure finally lower over europe, which hopefully should mean the jet stream buckling in a horseshoe kind of shape, then at the very least we'll hopefully see colder conditions taking hold shortly afterwards

pistolpetes11

derekon wrote: »

What an exciting day on the weather forum, what with all this talk of a possible cold spell. And now Darkman2 is showing how the upper temp charts are important - I feel he might be readying us for the upcoming severe cold and snow? Oh with all this excitement, I think I am going to wet in my knickers...........:D:D:D:D

D

I had always thought you were a bloke going by the username !!!

Deep Easterly

Wild Bill wrote: »

But in the Feb '86 episode the east coast got no snow - it was bone dry, very sunny and freezing most of the time.

The opening days of Feb 86 did see some snow, (even thundersnow) along the parts of east coast but once the easterly firmed up it did become spectacularly dry thereafter.

Wild Bill

Deep Easterly wrote: »

The opening days of Feb 86 did see some snow, (even thundersnow) along the parts of east coast but once the easterly firmed up it did become spectacularly dry thereafter.

I was living in Bray at the time - pretty sure there was no snow there. I guess that Isle of Man shadow might have kicked in.

derekon

pistolpetes11 wrote: »

I had always thought you were a bloke going by the username !!!

I am a bloke, don't think my wife would be too happy if she thought I was otherwise :D

Apologies did not mean to mislead or offend by using the terms "knickers", it just seemed to capture my excitement

Speaking of my excitement, I think it might be waning somewhat - MT has just posted an update on the Jan/Feb Cold Prospects thread stating that some models have backed off the cold (however the ECM is still showing the potential for a strong easterly, though again this is dependent on a number of factors).

The next few days are going to be interesting. I think its really make or break time for some decent cold & snow in Ireland. If what we are all monitoring (for last days of Jan, early Feb) does not materialise, it might be time for the fat lady to commence her lonesome tune............:eek:

D

geetar

does anyone have any idea what the recent "Coronal Mass ejection" from the sun will have on our winter prospects?

Kippure

geetar wrote: »

does anyone have any idea what the recent "Coronal Mass ejection" from the sun will have on our winter prospects?

You would have to ask this man.. http://www.weatheraction.com/pages/pv.asp?p=wact37

pistolpetes11

pistolpetes11 wrote: »

I had always thought you were a bloke going by the username !!!

for months, I thought Su Campu was a woman

BEASTERLY

Jake1 wrote: »

for months, I thought Su Campu was a woman

Funny the way you wait till he can't ban you to say that!

Pangea

For those missing a bit of snow
click the forward arrow on this to see what happens next
http://g.co/maps/279vu