Winter 2011/2012

force eleven

DOCARCH wrote: »

Reading same (only on about page 70). Lucky boards was not around in 1947, can you imagine the meltdown!

http://www.winter1947.co.uk/

Great site with day by day reports and synopsis and charts from that winter. Dublin Airport is still Collinstown and Shannon is Rineanna, long time ago now

Sponge Bob

It'd be a nice day to check up on your local crows all the same

Speak Now

Sponge Bob wrote: »

It'd be a nice day to check up on your local crows all the same

Is there a running joke in the weather forum about crows Sponge
3rd post on the bounce you've mentioned them

snowstreams

force eleven wrote: »

http://www.winter1947.co.uk/

Great site with day by day reports and synopsis and charts from that winter. Dublin Airport is still Collinstown and Shannon is Rineanna, long time ago now

Thats a good site for data. Its surprising to see that the snow depths arent much different to the snow depths from last year. Shannon and valentia doesnt have that much here either, just 1cm!
Clare and the other usual suspect counties probably missed out on snow that year too!
Even birr didnt have much snow, just 3cm. So it looks like there is no such thing as a countrywide snowstorm. The east and north must just have been affected. I know my granny used to always talk about that year as an amazing year, but she lived in a hilly area of cavan.

Snowmaker

Jerry Seinfeld wrote: »

Is there a running joke in the weather forum about crows Sponge
3rd post on the bounce you've mentioned them

Possible Cold Spell Mid-Late January, posts 170-183, you will find your answer there. The ability of nature to predict seasonal weather, in this case crows (generalised), I don't think the Sponge buys into the whole idea... each to their own I suppose, I don't know enough about it to make a call but I wouldn't knock it. The science of seasonal forecasting isn't exactly spot-on at the moment and there are studies being carried out in the relatively new discipline of Biomimetics - taking inspiration from nature and applying it to scientific/engineering/industrial processes. So maybe those crows have an inbuilt forecasting method we need to study a little deeper.

Calibos

Ah Biomemetics!! Its one thing for Jumbo Jets to be retrofitted with Wingtip winglets to improve lift and fuel efficiency after those nasty dogmatic scientists with their silly theories said Bumble bees shouldn't be able to fly but subsequenty found that the vortices coming off the undersized bumble bee wingtips added the required lift, its a whole other ball game to suggest that the peanut sized brain of a crow is capable of the supercomputer calculations required to untangle the Chaos theory permutions of future weather. If a bumble bee beating its wings in North Carolina can hypothetically affect the weather here a few months later, how can a crow possibly forecast it. Swallows are a whole other kettle of fish though. Similarily to crows they would be unable to forecast the weather but might be able to prevent a Hurricane in the US by eating a particular bumble bee but it would have to be an unladen African Swallow and not a European one cause the Hurricanes form just off of Africa:D

BTW If you mention the word Quantum, I'll be forced to hunt you down and shoot you

I think Spongebob is giving the crows their due respect and all the Nature forecasters should learn the meaning of the term 'Confirmation Bias'

davidsr20

Jerry Seinfeld wrote: »

Is there a running joke in the weather forum about crows Sponge
3rd post on the bounce you've mentioned them

It's not the crows that's a joke :rolleyes:

Snowmaker

I didn't say I was a believer, I'm all for science - but as you said yourself there was a time when scientists did believe bumblebees shouldn't be able to fly. So until it has been proven that animals, by means of natural instinct, cannot sense seasonal weather trends (not talking about forecasting specific events here) then best not to join those scientists who formed 'beliefs' about the humble bumble! 'Natural Engineering' is older and more advanced than scientific comprehension - how does a baby turtle, born on land/breathing air, know it should race immediately to the sea?? Instinct? define how instinct works?? Until recently the entire scientific community also 'believed' that nothing can travel faster than light... back on topic now... until next week many here didn't believe we would get a good auld pasting of snow this winter either.

force eleven

snowstreams wrote: »

Thats a good site for data. Its surprising to see that the snow depths arent much different to the snow depths from last year. Shannon and valentia doesnt have that much here either, just 1cm!
Clare and the other usual suspect counties probably missed out on snow that year too!
Even birr didnt have much snow, just 3cm. So it looks like there is no such thing as a countrywide snowstorm. The east and north must just have been affected. I know my granny used to always talk about that year as an amazing year, but she lived in a hilly area of cavan.

There were 2 or 3 notable blizzards during that long spell, and it wasn't wall to wall freezing temperatures - there were times when the milder air won out for a day or 2 at a time before the cold air beat it back. This happened several times and tended to happen over Ireland. So there was a thaw,freeze,thaw cycle at times, with lying snow melting and then returning. I think the sheltered west had an exceptionally dry and sunny winter in '47, though very cold.

UK got a lot more snow - with the prevailing easterlies.

Lucreto

WolfeIRE

Interesting one from NASA.


NASA will fly an airborne science laboratory above Canadian snowstorms to tackle a difficult challenge facing the upcoming Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) satellite mission -- measuring snowfall from space.

GPM is an international satellite mission that will set a new standard for precipitation measurements from space, providing next-generation observations of worldwide rain and snow every three hours. It is also the first mission designed to detect falling snow from space.

"Snow is notoriously hard to measure as it falls," said Walter Petersen, the GPM ground validation scientist at NASA's Wallops Flight Facility in Virginia. "Snowflakes contain varying amounts of air and water, and they flutter, wobble and drift as they leave the clouds."

http://www.nasa.gov/topics/earth/features/winter-dc8.html

Sponge Bob

They need not bother going to Canada. First whiteout of the winter at home.

http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/whiteout-with-snow-hitting-mid/60168

You can clearly see the 'lake effect' in the enhanced snowfall prediction just north east of Chicago.

Lucreto

dillo2k10

I havnt been following what's goin on here the last while, I lost all hope!

But are we actually going to get snow?

youngblood

dillo2k10 wrote: »

I havnt been following what's goin on here the last while, I lost all hope!

But are we actually going to get snow?

In a word

No

Scubadevils

Lucreto wrote: »

Ah Mr Vogan I see is continuing to hold on to his idea :pac:

In fairness he does present well and explains clearly what the models depict - can learn a lot watching his videos.

kittyn

youngblood wrote: »

In a word

No

I think you might be wrong on that prediction ;-)

Gone West

Snowmaker wrote: »

how does a baby turtle, born on land/breathing air, know it should race immediately to the sea??

Hatchlings are attreacted to light, so they will race towards the light at night. Generally this is going to be the moon reflecting off the ocean.

Nowadays, hotels and houses are causing problems by having brighter lights at night, with many turtles running into peoples beachfront gardens towards the lights.

Regarding the sheep in kerry, holly in dublin or postmen in Donegal, its impossible to say either way if there is any science behind it. There may be.

Elmer Blooker

Time to get the Winter 2011/12 thread up and running again I think.
It looks like all we'll get is a bog standard north westerly snap next weekend, nothing unusual for January.
I've called this winter 100% correct so far and I would think that Azores/Iberia high will be around for another 4 to 5 weeks at least with no real pattern change until end of Feb/March?

fizzycyst

Elmer Blooker wrote: »

Time to get the Winter 2011/12 thread up and running again I think.
It looks like all we'll get is a bog standard north westerly snap next weekend, nothing unusual for January.
I've called this winter 100% correct so far and I would think that Azores/Iberia high will be around for another 4 to 5 weeks at least with no real pattern change until end of Feb/March?

I hope the Azores high is this stubborn during summer 2012

Kippure

That azores high is beginning to be the spanner in the works. It needs to go now.

glimmerman123

Kippure wrote: »

That azores high is beginning to be the spanner in the works. It needs to go now.

Yeah and there won't be a sign of it next Summer. F**k off high pressure.

airmax87

I wish it'd snow, I might build a weather machine.

nacho libre

So with the UK met office still not backing Stewart Rampling's forecast for the end of January and into February, I fear his forecast is not going to verify.
We can't dismiss their updates lightly, they have access to a vast array of sophisticated equipment we don't. If there was to be a radical shift in our weather they would surely be picking up on this signal now.

This is not to say we won't see brief periods of snow over the next few weeks(we likely will), but unfortunately a prolonged cold period is looking increasingly unlikely. I think the NAO would need to go well below average for a period of time, hovering near neutral in combination with a negative ao isn't quite good enough to stave off the Atlantic systems
I would be glad to have this post rebound on me though. So maybe tomorrow or the next day the uk met office will be predicting a sustained cold spell for late January!

Wine Goddess

glimmerman123 wrote: »

Yeah and there won't be a sign of it next Summer. F**k off high pressure.

Precisely.

When we really NEED high pressure (like in our laughable what-passes-for-a-summer) we don't geddit.


When we DON'T need it, we geddit.

Geddit? :mad:

mcriot29

Wine Goddess wrote: »

glimmerman123 wrote: »

Yeah and there won't be a sign of it next Summer. F**k off high pressure.

Precisely.

When we really NEED high pressure (like in our laughable what-passes-for-a-summer) we don't geddit.


When we DON'T need it, we geddit.

Geddit? :mad:

This tread is dead like are winter is
Its been one let down after another
Snow joke rip winter 2011 - 12

pistolpetes11

Joe Bastardi @BigJoeBastardi 3m Reply Retweet Favorite · Open
GFS ensembles hint at Fab Feb for lovers of winter.. as neg ao/nao develop..block heading to Greenland in longer term


Big Joe trying to give the depressed lot some hope

Trotter

pistolpetes11 wrote: »

Joe Bastardi @BigJoeBastardi 3m Reply Retweet Favorite · Open
GFS ensembles hint at Fab Feb for lovers of winter.. as neg ao/nao develop..block heading to Greenland in longer term


Big Joe trying to give the depressed lot some hope

I thought I was supposed to be getting the snow chains ready for big Joe this weekend. Ah well.. I presume he's right this time

AH what the hell! On the upside, My oil tank is still not empty, which is more than can be said for the bank account!

tylercollins

I have to say, minus all the stormy weather (which was awesome!!) we've had this "winter", personally this was a disaster of a winter for cold lovers!!

What have we got to look forward to now?