Winter 2011/2012

cherryghost

tylercollins wrote: »

I have to say, minus all the stormy weather (which was awesome!!) we've had this "winter", personally this was a disaster of a winter for cold lovers!!

What have we got to look forward to now?

Last few days in Jan/ first week in Feb

Harps

pistolpetes11 wrote: »

Joe Bastardi @BigJoeBastardi 3m Reply Retweet Favorite · Open
GFS ensembles hint at Fab Feb for lovers of winter.. as neg ao/nao develop..block heading to Greenland in longer term


Big Joe trying to give the depressed lot some hope

Not much hope of February being accurate if the GFS ensembles can't even sort themselves out for more than 3 days away :rolleyes:

nacho libre

nacho libre wrote: »

I would be glad to have this post rebound on me though. So maybe tomorrow or the next day the uk met office will be predicting a sustained cold spell for late January!

and so it has happened :pac:


"There is considerable uncertainty regarding the weather during the last few days of January. The slightly more probable scenario at present is that conditions will remain similar to those described above. However there is also a significant risk of much colder weather becoming established right across the UK, with snow in places and widespread overnight frosts."

eskimocat

Sigh.... I had even saved a days holiday for a 'snow day' just in case. I was so sure we would get a good dumping... one of those wham bam, thank you snowbie ones. From nothing to a total white covering for 24 hours or at most 36 hrs and then when you get up the next day its all gone. Just enough time to build a snowman, get a store of snowballs for the freezer to see you through the summer, and to restore your faith in Winter being a season you can be proud of. Sigh.....

pistolpetes11

There out to get Vogan now !

Weather and Climate Through The Eyes of Mark Vogan
I am feeling a little downhearted tonight if I am being honest, however... interestingly, the electronic boards at the sides of the motorway today stated 'SNOW FORECAST THURSDAY'. At least there's one thing good.. If I'm wrong.. I publicly admit it and will do on Friday and or the weekend. I am still holding for something of a surprise this weekend, but like I say. I feel dishearted tonight..


Weather and Climate Through The Eyes of Mark Vogan
Yes, my forecast for December and early January was a failure I completely agree, however.. like many of you are gunning me for... my january forecast ISSUED CHRISTMAS DAY outlined the change by January 15th.. This done not mean cold and snow in your backjyard on this date but that the 'PATTERN; would turnaround and yes it does if you see North America, Europe and Asia! Japan has seen record snowfall and on New Year's Day. I stated the potential, given the pattern that Japan like other countries in mid-latitude Asia could see big, possibly record snowstorm... However, only God knows the final outcome!

derekon

pistolpetes11 wrote: »

There out to get Vogan now !

Weather and Climate Through The Eyes of Mark Vogan
I am feeling a little downhearted tonight if I am being honest, however... interestingly, the electronic boards at the sides of the motorway today stated 'SNOW FORECAST THURSDAY'. At least there's one thing good.. If I'm wrong.. I publicly admit it and will do on Friday and or the weekend. I am still holding for something of a surprise this weekend, but like I say. I feel dishearted tonight..


Weather and Climate Through The Eyes of Mark Vogan
Yes, my forecast for December and early January was a failure I completely agree, however.. like many of you are gunning me for... my january forecast ISSUED CHRISTMAS DAY outlined the change by January 15th.. This done not mean cold and snow in your backjyard on this date but that the 'PATTERN; would turnaround and yes it does if you see North America, Europe and Asia! Japan has seen record snowfall and on New Year's Day. I stated the potential, given the pattern that Japan like other countries in mid-latitude Asia could see big, possibly record snowstorm... However, only God knows the final outcome!

I have followed Vogan's blog for the past six months and he does his best for a weather enthusiast as he has no professional training.

However, he has made a total balls of his winter forecast . First the cold was to start around mid December/20th December with most of the UK and Ireland under snow for Christmas. We had one of the mildest Christmas days ever.

Then he forecast the cold would come around mid January. Ongoing mild westerlies prevail.

Then the final straw - on his video dated yesterday he said that this weekend would see many towns and cities throughout Ireland and the UK struggle to get above freezing. Delusional !!! He confirms this view on the attached video at 08:55.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EvnCsSlmS_0&list=UU561yly22XzOylY8FaBwrTg&index=1&feature=plcp

It was when he said this that I realised Vogan is a hopecaster and sees what he wants to see , regardless of the charts.

Needless to say, he has lost all credibility with me.

D

Mr Benevolent

derekon wrote: »

I have followed Vogan's blog for the past six months and he does his best for a weather enthusiast as he has no professional training.

However, he has made a total balls of his winter forecast . First the cold was to start around mid December/20th December with most of the UK and Ireland under snow for Christmas. We had one of the mildest Christmas days ever.

Then he forecast the cold would come around mid January. Ongoing mild westerlies prevail.

Then the final straw - on his video dated yesterday he said that this weekend would see many towns and cities throughout Ireland and the UK struggle to get above freezing. Delusional !!! He confirms this view on the attached video at 08:55.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EvnCsSlmS_0&list=UU561yly22XzOylY8FaBwrTg&index=1&feature=plcp

It was when he said this that I realised Vogan is a hopecaster and sees what he wants to see , regardless of the charts.

Needless to say, he has lost all credibility with me.

D

Meh, MTC was wrong too.

faktisperminute

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kIHMdtobwKM

I find his forecasts more accurate .

not watching them for a long time but since few weeks ago started and seems be to be on point .

Procyon

interestingly, the electronic boards at the sides of the motorway today stated 'SNOW FORECAST THURSDAY'.

Anyone else reminded of "LA Story"?

pistolpetes11

The backtrack is in full flow now


Weather and Climate Through The Eyes of Mark Vogan
I guess my current thoughts are reluctance in terms of the latest UK and Europe weather map as apparently the models have been spitting out incorrect data and so there's part of me that isn't sure what to expect both over the next 48 to 72 hours as well as further down the road. I've found this to be a tough season to forecast. As you know. I like to go by the evidence in from of me and model trends (you know my dislike of the gfs) and for so long, it gave colder weather this weekend up until just 36 hours ago. Once, the ECMWF flipped, I didn't know what to think. Some meteorologists I am friends with also echoed the wintry weekend ahead for the UK/W. Europe which helped me to be more confident in my forecast.

opinion guy

I propose we now use the term 'sum-ter' to replace the old terms winter and summer, there is apparently no longer any difference:mad:

pistolpetes11

You know it's odd when inter run and inter model agreement drops people seem to put more not less faith in operational outcomes at the extended range. Strange.

Ensemble mean and spread products however continue to evolve relatively smoothly.

Following on from the last few days, we have ECM ensemble mean for day 10 and CPC 8-14 day mean height anomalies agreeing on a sharpening ridge over the NE Canadian maritimes and ridge edging its way towards Scandinavia (if anything ECM more keen on the ridge over Canada).



Not many operationals have been able to pin this pattern, so therein lies your dilemma.

I like the trend here. That upper trough is further south than anything the GFS op has been able to muster and two things are likely to come of it.

As shortwaves run into the back of the trough, they will pull its mean axis backwards further strengthening the block to the east. Also, as energy is ejected south-east off the trough, that will strengthen the blocking to the north. Easterly anyone ?

pistolpetes11

Agree with this.

I think that we are lining up for a cold spell in 10-15 days time starting from the east. This is for a number of reasons.

Firstly we are seeing a considerable warming at 30hPa which will take a little time to affect tropospherically but not as long as if the warming was higher up. We then have the vortex shape lower down which wool be more conducive to blocking to our NE.
Next we have an increase in frictional torque starting to occur which is likely to be followed by a positive mountain torque. The net affect will be removal of westerly winds north of 35°N. With the GWO likely to be around phase 1 then.

I suspect after this any longevity will be determined on the strength of the block and positioning of the PV following this.

On the look out for signs in the FI output in the coming days now.

gurramok

I dunno but as i said a few months ago, this winter looks to be like a traditional winter like we had for example in 2001. Lots of mild weather with maybe 2 days of snow if it appears at all. The weather of the last 2 years has done a complete u-turn to what we had in previous years, it does not look good for snow lovers as time is running out for them.

mcriot29

gurramok wrote: »

I dunno but as i said a few months ago, this winter looks to be like a traditional winter like we had for example in 2001. Lots of mild weather with maybe 2 days of snow if it appears at all. The weather of the last 2 years has done a complete u-turn to what we had in previous years, it does not look good for snow lovers as time is running out for them.

This reminds me of last jan feb when we all where left waiting for more snow and cold in never came, i hope pistols idea above proves correct for a cold spell from the east in two weeks time. However i fear its just going to be a normal winter no snow etc. Mt vogan where all wrong this year that postman was correct looks likr nature knows it stuff . My hats off to that postman he was spot on yet again .

bb1234567

mcriot29 wrote: »

This reminds me of last jan feb when we all where left waiting for more snow and cold in never came, i hope pistols idea above proves correct for a cold spell from the east in two weeks time. However i fear its just going to be a normal winter no snow etc. Mt vogan where all wrong this year that postman was correct looks likr nature knows it stuff . My hats off to that postman he was spot on yet again .

+1 ye like de javu of last jan/feb. We all expected more snow just because the december had been so severe, and it kept getting pushed back but never came:(
Also ye like you if we dont see any snow this year like postman was saying I'll trust nature signs much more and will be scared if the postman is saying next year wont be snowy!

Redsunset

bb1234567 wrote: »

+1 ye like de javu of last jan/feb. We all expected more snow just because the december had been so severe, and it kept getting pushed back but never came:(
Also ye like you if we dont see any snow this year like postman was saying I'll trust nature signs much more and will be scared if the postman is saying next year wont be snowy!

Back in last years Strat warm thread it was mentioned in Dec that high latitude blocking would come under pressure due to the down welling of westerly waves in the New Year. This proved correct as we now know. It was indeed the Death of the Greenland blocking high

pistolpetes11

Matthew Hugo @MattHugo81 8m Reply Retweet Favorite · Open
Between 30Jan-03Feb all 51 EC ENS members agree on high pressure initially over the UK before moving it to the NW & a cold N'ly develops

Joe Public

bb1234567 wrote: »

+1 ye like de javu of last jan/feb. We all expected more snow just because the december had been so severe, and it kept getting pushed back but never came:(
Also ye like you if we dont see any snow this year like postman was saying I'll trust nature signs much more and will be scared if the postman is saying next year wont be snowy!

Copied from a UK forum - some fella in Scotland posted this.
Just goes to show nature can't reliably forecast the weather, but then we are only just beyond the half way point so the game is not over yet and there might even be extra time added on.

Copied piece:-
"I think lots of berries, is mother nature's way of fatting up the birds before a really bad winter. The last two winters up here have been the worst in my life time and the rowan trees branches and blackberris were at bursting point with fruit and this year is the same if not even more!! So i am with the old guy they know best

Be good to look back in April2012 and see!!!"

Sponge Bob

I pointed out that building high pressure in near FI as one to watch this morning. First proper sign of cold all winter if the models remain in that setup.

http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=76603283&postcount=1064

Wild Bill

Sponge Bob wrote: »

I pointed out that building high pressure in near FI as one to watch this morning. First proper sign of cold all winter if the models remain in that setup.

http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=76603283&postcount=1064

Would that be giving us night frosts Mr Bob?

fizzycyst

Sponge Bob wrote: »

I pointed out that building high pressure in near FI as one to watch this morning.

http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=76603283&postcount=1064

Fair play to ya :rolleyes:

Sponge Bob

Wild Bill wrote: »

Would that be giving us night frosts Mr Bob?

Yep. We will, in my opinion, get a cold spell in February and quite possibly a long one...deserving of a thread and I might even start one myself

As to whether that will lead to snow who knows at this stage.

The month does have a cold dry and crisp look to me at this point. It might help stop that Squirrel Pox Plague around your way Bill. :cool:

Wild Bill

Sponge Bob wrote: »

The month does have a cold dry and crisp look to me at this point. It might help stop that Squirrel Pox Plague around your way Bill. :cool:

Y'know Sponge, yer better than Dr Doolittle when it comes to the animals, whether furry, feathered or slimy.

As if the Red Squirrel didn't already have enough to worry about - along comes the pox.

If a savage frost can help stave off this plague then who can begrudge it?

Onward to -20C! Avast!

nacho libre

Sponge Bob wrote: »

I pointed out that building high pressure in near FI as one to watch this morning. First proper sign of cold all winter if the models remain in that setup.

http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=76603283&postcount=1064

Hard to see based on that chart the high retrogressing north westwards.
If it was to go anywhere it would be north eastwards.

The Matt Hugo tweet is encouraging, but that guy changes his mind as much of the models. What will be crucial is the ecm 32 day update tomorrow. If it goes for a cold spell in early February, and the UK met office backs it, then i'm quietly confident we'll have one.

gurramok

mcriot29 wrote: »

This reminds me of last jan feb when we all where left waiting for more snow and cold in never came, i hope pistols idea above proves correct for a cold spell from the east in two weeks time. However i fear its just going to be a normal winter no snow etc. Mt vogan where all wrong this year that postman was correct looks likr nature knows it stuff . My hats off to that postman he was spot on yet again .

Anyone remember 2000\2001? About this time back then we had Siberian winds and it was all over the news\radio about the new blast of 'winds from the East' and blaming global warming etc.

Regarding temps, has it actually gone down past -3C in Dublin so far this winter? I don't think it has yet, its a classic Irish winter so far. Pity the people who bought snow tyres for their cars

Wild Bill

Remember (or maybe ye don't kids!) that February 1986 was one of the coldest months recorded in Ireland. It was also one of the driest - and, for Feb, the sunniest.

Yet not a single snowflake fell.

The ground was permafrozen. JCBs were required to dig graves.

Sponge Bob

It might have been below 3c on one night in Casement Gurramok but do remember it was above zero in places like Moscow and Leningrad over the christmas / new year and there was basically no cold anywhere in Europe ....bar in a few tedious threads in this forum as always.

It isn't like that any more. Normal winter service is with us in NW Russia and Scandinavia and looking to expand the franchise. The models reflect that reality.

nacho libre

Wild Bill wrote: »

Remember (or maybe ye don't kids!) that February 1986 was one of the coldest months recorded in Ireland. It was also one of the driest - and, for Feb, the sunniest.

Yet not a single snowflake fell.

I vaugely remember it. It could be my mind playing tricks, but were there two or three years in the eighties where there was two- three weeks of easterly?

Sponge Bob

A stiff blast of dry easterlies is precisely what I have in mind from early February, one that holds the moist Atlantic at bay, hence no snow of any note.