Advertisement
If you have a new account but are having problems posting or verifying your account, please email us on hello@boards.ie for help. Thanks :)
Hello all! Please ensure that you are posting a new thread or question in the appropriate forum. The Feedback forum is overwhelmed with questions that are having to be moved elsewhere. If you need help to verify your account contact hello@boards.ie
Time to burn Greece?
Options
Comments
-
Read somewhere (can't find article now) that Greece might not be in as bad a situation as some think, unlike Ireland if you strip away debt repayments their tax intake actually now covers their public expenditure etc
+ they have a lot of assets which could be sold unlike Ireland which already privatized alot
+ unlike Ireland they have also borrowed money to spend on German weaponry which is not exactly essential, we instead splashed out on German cars
If this is true then Greece should not be pushed to the edge since they might just say "feck it" default and go own way, food for thought there
On what planet? They are not running a primary surplus, they were projected to run a primary surplus by 2012 but this is now looking less likely unless they pass the austerity package.
A primary surplus is only a benefit however, if you assume that they can renege on all their debts, which I believe Cuba managed along with China and Russia however the USSR later settled the Czar bond issue with the Brits in return for access to Czarist cash frozen in British banks, and Yeltsin made a 400m settlement with French bondholders although not all bond holders agreed and some are apparently seeking to sue to seize Russian assets in France.
Taking the Cuban example, you have to be prepared to be a complete social and political pariah, you have to be prepared to lose all foreign investment, you have to be prepared to close yourself off from the world. And unlike Cuba there is currently no USSR to help out, so unless Greece wants to align itself with China I think things could get pretty nasty.
Who would buy the Greek State assets if Greece reneged on all its debts? The Greek people? No foreign capital would flow into Greece, and unless they shut it off a lot of Greek capital would try to flow out to safer climes.0 -
It's politically-laden stuff alright. But to my eyes it is also quite temperate and realistic.Unusually political stuff there - the standard "there is no plan B" line, which, to be fair, is almost certainly the case.
I'd interpret the Plan B statement to mean there is probably no Plan B which involves Greece in the Euro. The actual Plan B probably comprises a blueprint for excising Greece from the single currency, and circling the wagons around the remaining Eurozone members. All of whom incidentally have shown the political will to effect the necessary changes.
The net point is that Greece has to be seen to take the political decisions that will turn it into a modern European economy. It is so far off the pace that if they fail to make the most basic and essential reforms, they're effectively writing their own Eurozone obituary. Which will be the slow motion effect of a No vote tomorrow.0 -
That's well put. Unfortunately the rest of Europe is mostly composed of political adults, so even if Greece votes for a suicidal default the EU will still try and assist. At some stage patience has to run out however, and the Greeks will find out what that a default driven austerity program is incredibly unpleasant.The net point is that Greece has to be seen to take the political decisions that will turn it into a modern European economy. It is so far off the pace that if they fail to make the most basic and essential reforms, they're effectively writing their own Eurozone obituary. Which will be the slow motion effect of a No vote tomorrow.0 -
I haven't seen this posted before,it's the package that Greek politicians will be voting on tomorow:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-13940431
It's pretty savage.0 -
Hard to see how it'll be implemented! I think it'll pass, but there'll be (even more) chaos on the streets tomorrow.cml387 wrote:It's pretty savage.
I think this has to have been discussed somewhere by someone and some kind of plan has to be in place. Even if they pass it, and the protestors don't bring any guillotines out tomorrow, it is still a very, very small step towards where they'd need to be.McDave wrote:I'd interpret the Plan B statement to mean there is probably no Plan B which involves Greece in the Euro. The actual Plan B probably comprises a blueprint for excising Greece from the single currency, and circling the wagons around the remaining Eurozone members.0 -
Advertisement
-
A Greek exit will crystallise losses. The Eurozone wants to avoid the crystallisation of those losses. That's not to say those affected can't cope. It just means heavy short term write downs, and direct losses for insurers/holders of Credit Default Swaps. And the risk that the crystallisation process might lead to a serious unintended effect.Cannibal Ox wrote: »I think this has to have been discussed somewhere by someone and some kind of plan has to be in place. Even if they pass it, and the protestors don't bring any guillotines out tomorrow, it is still a very, very small step towards where they'd need to be.
On the other hand, it might not, and the Eurozone might move on quite quickly from a Greek exit. Who knows? Or more precisely, who wants to know right now?0 -
On the other hand, it might not, and the Eurozone might move on quite quickly from a Greek exit. Who knows? Or more precisely, who wants to know right now?
Most Greek citizens I imagine.
I think there is noway they can live without a default so 5 years of horrible austrity measures only to default will leave citizens in a situation where they don't have the money to survive the default.
Probably best to just default and let the people that lent them money take the hit and probably leave the Euro and hope for the best by trying to rebuild their economy.0 -
I'm arriving in to this very late. Right now I'm in Greece, staying at the Royal Olympic hotel, where the doormen and the receptionists can retire at 50. The doormen will retire on 36/40th's of their final salary and the receptionists 34/40th's of their final salary. I was told this by a Greek colleague, who works for the same company as myself(admittedly further down the food chain), but will automatically retire at age 55. If I want to retire at that age I will have to provide the financial resources of my own accord.
While I hope to retire by 51 or 52, it will be my own financial planning that will do it, not a statutory instrument.
This is not a public service versus private sector battle here in Greece, while public sector salaries here seem to be enormous, the private sector are hugely reluctant to pay taxes. An awful lot of people pay nothing and seem to take pride in it. Anecdotally I have heard in the last few days some stories that our very own 'Gombeen man' would look very approvingly upon.
While I'm in Greece I'm also commuting to Germany every other day and the difference in attitude is unbelievable. The clash between Latin and Teuton. Never have they been so far apart.0 -
I haven't seen this posted before,it's the package that Greek politicians will be voting on tomorow:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-13940431
It's pretty savage.
They have to sell water companies....The plan to sell up to 40% of the Thessaloniki Water Supply and Sewage Company (EYATH) and up to 27% of the Athens Water Supply and Sewage Company (EYDAP) forms part of a wider austerity package announced by finance minister George Papaconstantinou
http://www.globalwaterintel.com/archive/12/6/general/ambitious-timing-greek-water-sell-.html
do they sell the right to the water supply too..reminds me of Bolivia if true
""In 2000, in Cochabamba, Bolivia, a peoples' revolt against Bechtel's water privatization was successful. The Bechtel corporation (which has since been contracted to deal with reconstruction efforts in New Orleans and Iraq) pushed this privatization deal with Cochabamba which increased the cost of water by up to 300%. People were [also] billed for using rain water and drinking from wells they had created themselves. Cochabamba residents organized protests, road blockades, and city-wide strikes against the privatization. Eventually Bechtel packed up and left town and water was again made a public work."
The people of Bolivia ran riot and revolted..Wouldn't blame them, will the fact that only 40% of Water company prevent a revolution, they learned from mistakes..
Selling Islands off Greece would be very disturbing if you were greek, would you be selling uninhabited islands or what? What about all the priceless historical buildings there...etc
Again I say its outrageous that the people are suffering when its the bankers and politicians playing recklessly with their lives...
This is all very sickening...The banks should have suffered, its fkn stupid to be commenting on what they get paid etc..Your just helping the bankers and politicians justify this madness..
If the Greek people took up arms, stormed the govt and shot them all, i would not blame them. We need a new name for politicians that don't represent the people, this charade of democracy is disgusting.
Most people don't even realise what is going on here, they do not fully understand how we have all been shafted..In greece at least they know whats going on..Even if the foreign press try to label them lazy good for nothings, which is complete propaganda to keep them isolated..0 -
I think there is noway they can live without a default so 5 years of horrible austrity measures only to default will leave citizens in a situation where they don't have the money to survive the default.
Probably best to just default and let the people that lent them money take the hit and probably leave the Euro and hope for the best by trying to rebuild their economy.
The problem here is defining default and its consequences. People, including the many of the citizens of Greece interviewed by the press, seem to think that default involves a unilateral repudiation of debt, that the people of Greece or indeed the Government of Greece could just decide tomorrow not to pay any of their debt. This is rarely undertaken, usually only follows a revolution, and involves being prepared to spend decades in the financial wilderness.
A default does not make the debt go away, it simply means you cannot/ refuse to pay the debt, but the debt is still there, you still owe the money and the interest you don't pay still adds up, in fact the actual "default" could increase the interest rate depending on the terms of the debt.
What Greece needs is a restructuring of their debt, to agree with their creditors that they will accept 50, 60 or 70c in the euro. No creditor is going to agree 0c in the euro.
And while it looks like Greek privatizations, Greek austerity, and EU/ IMF funding make servicing of the debt possible (if unpalatable for the Greek citizen), and while Greece is in no position to assure bondholders that if they accepted €700 or €600 or €500 of new Greek bonds for every €1,000 of old Greek bonds they hold, that those new bonds would actually be worth the paper that they are written on, there is no incentive for the bondholders to agree a restructuring.
What the French deal, if finalized, does, is offer the bondholders something approximating additional security for maintaining some of their exposure to Greece, while giving Greece the comfort of not having to repay (rollover) that debt for decades. In reality it gives the lenders the breathing space to beef up their balance sheets to take the hit at some point in the future when Greece have made sufficient inroads into getting their house in order to be able to make those bondholders a reasonable offer of x c in the euro of good new debt in replace of the old debt of questionable value.
"Kicking the can down the road" while imposing austerity on Greece has an objective benefit here, and defaulting in the future can be better than defaulting now, especially if Greece was running a primary surplus at that point in the future so that it had some sort of bargaining position.
Right now the Greek bargaining position is that of a financial suicide bomber, and most civilized States cannot be seen by their domestic electorates to negotiate with terrorists.0 -
Advertisement
-
beeftotheheels wrote: »The problem here is defining default and its consequences. People, including the many of the citizens of Greece interviewed by the press, seem to think that default involves a unilateral repudiation of debt, that the people of Greece or indeed the Government of Greece could just decide tomorrow not to pay any of their debt. This is rarely undertaken, usually only follows a revolution, and involves being prepared to spend decades in the financial wilderness.
Right now the Greek bargaining position is that of a financial suicide bomber, and most civilized States cannot be seen by their domestic electorates to negotiate with terrorists.
Where does moral hazard kick in anyway, I would love Greece to default...Audit the debt..Find that the loans were illegal using the concept of odious debt and then if they can't get a loan, don't worry there fkd anyway. This is really a bank bailout, not a bail out for the ppl..Why bother bailing out the german and french banks when looking at the austerity measures and knowing it will get worse...
I agree with your comments, but I think everyone knows its better to talk to terrorists, the US are now making deals with the Taliban lol0 -
rocksteady36 wrote: »Again I say its outrageous that the people are suffering when its the bankers and politicians playing recklessly with their lives...
To reverse Michael Noonan's catch phrase "Greece is not Ireland". We had a property bubble, we inflated our expenditure based on the bubble tax take so that when it burst we had a huge deficit which we are working to address. But everyone got richer from the Celtic tiger, like it or not. Benefits went up because we were rich. Public sector wages went up because we were rich. The local shopkeeper made more money because we spent more because we were rich. We're now reversing this - as we need to given our current circumstances.
Yes we stood over our banks, and yes, this may have involved pressure from outsiders, but we are dealing with the fallout of a bubble bursting which has happened time and again in the global economy.
Greece is not.
Greece are dealing with the fallout of cooking their books for decades. There are no bankers or politicians who made a killing in the good times because there were, by Irish standards, no good times.
Ireland had a bunch of problems 25 years ago which we addressed which resulted in the celtic tiger. But we let it go to our heads and developed a real estate bubble which has burst.
Greece had a bunch of problems 25 years ago which they hid. So they ignored them and now the chickens have come home to roost.
Very different kettle of fish.0 -
rocksteady36 wrote: »Where does moral hazard kick in anyway, I would love Greece to default...Audit the debt..Find that the loans were illegal using the concept of odious debt and then if they can't get a loan, don't worry there fkd anyway. This is really a bank bailout, not a bail out for the ppl..Why bother bailing out the german and french banks when looking at the austerity measures and knowing it will get worse...
I agree with your comments, but I think everyone knows its better to talk to terrorists, the US are now making deals with the Taliban lol
Moral hazard, in relation to Greece, should have kicked in before the first bailout. But at that point in time, no one knew the size of the Greek problem.
Auditing the Greek debt might help but not in any substantive way. Greece were massaging the numbers so the Greece is still responsible for most of the debt. http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=72772494&postcount=60 -
Peter Matthews position on VB tonight basically is what will most likely happen IMO.
He is rarely wrong and usually just waiting for the politicians in charge to catch up to him.0 -
beeftotheheels wrote: »To reverse Michael Noonan's catch phrase "Greece is not Ireland". We had a property bubble, we inflated our expenditure based on the bubble tax take so that when it burst we had a huge deficit which we are working to address. But everyone got richer from the Celtic tiger, like it or not. Benefits went up because we were rich. Public sector wages went up because we were rich. The local shopkeeper made more money because we spent more because we were rich. We're now reversing this - as we need to given our current circumstances.
Yes we stood over our banks, and yes, this may have involved pressure from outsiders, but we are dealing with the fallout of a bubble bursting which has happened time and again in the global economy.
Greece is not.
Greece are dealing with the fallout of cooking their books for decades. There are no bankers or politicians who made a killing in the good times because there were, by Irish standards, no good times.
Ireland had a bunch of problems 25 years ago which we addressed which resulted in the celtic tiger. But we let it go to our heads and developed a real estate bubble which has burst.
Greece had a bunch of problems 25 years ago which they hid. So they ignored them and now the chickens have come home to roost.
Very different kettle of fish.
They may be different issues, may be the Greek Govt is totally corupt, this may have the knock on effect of its citizens evading tax..In fact that is the most likely reason for them to evade tax because they know the poltiicans are so corrupt..
But the common thread running through both our realities is that deregulation of lending, and free movement of capital led to both our governments over spending, as has been proven here..
These banks lent on a global scale, it has come out that the Federal Reserve through its discount window gave discounted loans to european banks like Dexia, why did they do that anyway...
How do you mean no bankers or politicians made a killing...There is a lot of wealthy ex politicians living in d4 etc and lots of rich bankers, there all just under the radar..
Also I don't think that the Celtic Tiger was real, if we look at the evidence now, we can see that Bertie ignored all his advisors in the dept of finance..
Everyone was doing well because most of the people had an income linked to the property bubble. A bubble is not the celtic tiger, we now know the celtic tiger was a mirage..a bubble that Bertie allowed to go on to stay in power...
Anyway, if Lenihan had listened to Merkel when she told him not to guarantee the banks because there would be a flight of capital from German banks, he sneaked off and made the worst mistake in the history of our short state...
I get what your saying though, but as a personal opinion I am against trying to say that the greeks are different story and then letting the people suffer their fate..
I personally believe if we are not to be hypocrites and expect help ourselves from our "european partners" then we should realsie that the greeks are being screwed just as bad as we are..
Because like you say its a different kettle of fish, thats why they are on the streets nearing a revolution..Because they were royally screwed on purpose, where we were screwed thru incompetence..
I would argue that Bertie knew deep down he was playing russian roulette..but went for gold..
Also how did you do that, very good didnt know you could take a post like that
Why did you put up a post that you disagreed with at the time?
Anyway may be the fact that they were massaging the numbers could be used to audit the debt and prove it is odious...?
Lastly, the bankers knew the size of our problems and lied, and I would believe the bankers knew the size of the problem in Greece too....
Anyway Beefof the heels I have read some of your posts and you make a lot of sense, but I am going to be devils advocate for the Greeks..We should recognise we are all in the same boat, as in the bankers are being bailed out while we suffer..0 -
Peter Matthews position on VB tonight basically is what will most likely happen IMO.
He is rarely wrong and usually just waiting for the politicians in charge to catch up to him.
I thought Peter pretty evasive.
He will not answer ANY questions on the budget deficit (like McWilliams etc) except to state that fixing the bank debt will sort all.
He thinks there's a Santa Claus out there with €50bn/€70bn/€90bn in his arse pocket who's only waiting to be asked nicely to hand it over to Ireland.
He doesn't understand the dynamics of power.
Maybe Miriam's the one to get it for us!0 -
rocksteady36 wrote: »They may be different issues, may be the Greek Govt is totally corupt, this may have the knock on effect of its citizens evading tax..In fact that is the most likely reason for them to evade tax because they know the poltiicans are so corrupt..
Chicken and egg argument leads to anarchy....
One has to distinguish between negligence and fraud. Civil societies distinguish between mistakes and lies. Hell, a four year old can distinguish between mistakes and lies.rocksteady36 wrote: »But the common thread running through both our realities is that deregulation of lending, and free movement of capital led to both our governments over spending, as has been proven here..rocksteady36 wrote: »These banks lent on a global scale, it has come out that the Federal Reserve through its discount window gave discounted loans to european banks like Dexia, why did they do that anyway...
We have a mismatch between national regulation and global financial institutions, and this is a big part of the problem. But it is not the entirety of the problem. Individuals as both voters and borrowers have to take some of the responsibility.
Greek bankers and former politicians are living under the radar in D4??? I'd have assumed they either went somewhere warm and sunny like the Caribbean, or somewhere financially stable like Lichtenstein. We've managed to lure them here with our poor weather and poor credit rating? Well I'll be damned!rocksteady36 wrote: »How do you mean no bankers or politicians made a killing...There is a lot of wealthy ex politicians living in d4 etc and lots of rich bankers, there all just under the radar..
The Celtic Tiger was the export led growth between the late eighties and the beginning of the naughties. It petered out so we threw fuel on the property flames. But it was good growth, we just failed to accept that it had met its natural end and that we didn't need to grow at that rate any more.rocksteady36 wrote: »Also I don't think that the Celtic Tiger was real, if we look at the evidence now, we can see that Bertie ignored all his advisors in the dept of finance..
Everyone was doing well because most of the people had an income linked to the property bubble. A bubble is not the celtic tiger, we now know the celtic tiger was a mirage..a bubble that Bertie allowed to go on to stay in power...rocksteady36 wrote: »Anyway, if Lenihan had listened to Merkel when she told him not to guarantee the banks because there would be a flight of capital from German banks, he sneaked off and made the worst mistake in the history of our short state...
The bank guarantee was not the worst mistake in our history, nor is it the reason we are running a primary deficit. You need to go two Finance Ministers back to find the answer to those puzzles. It was a mistake, just not the worst mistake.rocksteady36 wrote: »I get what your saying though, but as a personal opinion I am against trying to say that the greeks are different story and then letting the people suffer their fate..
I personally believe if we are not to be hypocrites and expect help ourselves from our "european partners" then we should realsie that the greeks are being screwed just as bad as we are..
Because like you say its a different kettle of fish, thats why they are on the streets nearing a revolution..Because they were royally screwed on purpose, where we were screwed thru incompetence..
I would argue that Bertie knew deep down he was playing russian roulette..but went for gold..
I don't understand what you are saying.rocksteady36 wrote: »Also how did you do that, very good didnt know you could take a post like that
Why did you put up a post that you disagreed with at the time?
I didn't disagree with the post, I merely pointed out that Later10 had misrepresented the degrees of horribleness lurking in the credit rating agencies positions. Ecuador was, until a week previous to that post as bad as it could get yet Greece had just managed to deserve a worse credit rating.0 -
beeftotheheels wrote:beeftotheheels;73030877]Chicken and egg argument leads to anarchy....
Thats not a good argument lol...If the government looked after the people and the economy instead of themselves then there would be less tax evasion...Its not chicken and egg its cause and effect...beeftotheheels wrote:One has to distinguish between negligence and fraud. Civil societies distinguish between mistakes and lies. Hell, a four year old can distinguish between mistakes and lies.
I agree, but you didnt understand what I was saying when I said the greeks were srewed on purpose but we were screwed thru incompompetence..But my point is still that just because it was political incompetence here does not mean we should 'burn the Greeks' the bankers are the cause, lets burn the banks..These politicians are just puppets in the hands of the puppeteer bankers..beeftotheheels wrote:We have a mismatch between national regulation and global financial institutions, and this is a big part of the problem. But it is not the entirety of the problem. Individuals as both voters and borrowers have to take some of the responsibility.
I don't agree with that blanket responsibility for voters..They were lied to by Bertie, who they trust, and you seem to believe that its 'negligence' only that got us here. It was recklessness and in business it would warrant the serious punishment, but politicians are immune to the law..So they can act without worrying about consequences and can just deny all wrongdoing..So I think that negligence should be a criminal offence for politicians..So I don't agree with that theory that we are to blame..as Lenihan said 'we all partied' Fuk That..I don't accept that sharing of the governments lies, negligence and cronyism.. A four year old can not distinguish between a politicans lies, you can obviously see Bertie lied to us, even when they have proven he ignored his dept of finance for years and 4 year olds don't realise that negligence would be crime in other areas of life and result in jail time...
As for the voters, I remeber the last election Fianna Fail won, I was with family and relations in my grans..They were all so proud that they had voted for Fianna Fail, because it was their party, they believed in this Fianna Fail versus Fine Gael nonsense..I told them they would regret this elcetion, I was fianna fail but voted fine gael. I told them that not once did Fianna fail offer to take responsibilty for the crap going on, voters are like 4 year olds in many cases..If you can remeber Labour and Fine gael fought the elcetion and they fought it by saying that they would make their party members take responsibilty for wrong doing..But the sheep voted fianna fail, many did because its what they always did, its a family thing going back decades..So the politicians abused this trust and it has been proven..So the people could not see the lies from mistakes..beeftotheheels wrote:Greek bankers and former politicians are living under the radar in D4??? I'd have assumed they either went somewhere warm and sunny like the Caribbean, or somewhere financially stable like Lichtenstein. We've managed to lure them here with our poor weather and poor credit rating? Well I'll be damned!
Your senetence read ...There are no bankers or politicians who made a killing in the good times because there were, by Irish standards, no good times. I just misinterpreted your senetence, no need to be smart...beeftotheheels wrote:The Celtic Tiger was the export led growth between the late eighties and the beginning of the naughties. It petered out so we threw fuel on the property flames. But it was good growth, we just failed to accept that it had met its natural end and that we didn't need to grow at that rate any more.
Correct, but everyone up until the bubble burst imagined it continued through to 2010..So in that sense it was all bullsht..beeftotheheels wrote:The bank guarantee was not the worst mistake in our history, nor is it the reason we are running a primary deficit. You need to go two Finance Ministers back to find the answer to those puzzles. It was a mistake, just not the worst mistake.
Ok, worst economic mistake...lol The worst mistake is asking a teacher or solicitor to run the dept of finance, clowns...Are you talking about mccreavy or cowen..Cowen is a solicitor by trade, and mccreavy was a chartered accountant, nearly as good as an economist for me..At least he thought he knew what he was doing, if anyone actually believes that cowen or lenihan had a fkn clue about finance and the economy they are in la la land..So to me, yes the biggest economic mistake was guaranteeing the banks..nothing else comes close to that for me..How many billions do we owe from that one decision..one single decision...pin pointed and definite mistake..beeftotheheels wrote:I don't understand what you are saying.
Well it was late last night, I was tired, but my point is that if we burn the greek people for the governments gangsterism then why should anyone giv a damn about us, why are we different just because our inept politicians made a 'mistake' then we should be helped..I don't think that burning the greek people will bring us any luck..
And I am saying that people are very naive to think that Bertie was not corrupt here too..He told us that people should commit suicide instead of talking about us being in a bubble that could burst..WTF..Then left office so he wouldn't get done for taking bribes from business men...Whats the difference between Greek and Irish polciticians, to the German and french there is no difference..They told the Greeks and IRISH to cool the economy over and over, we told them to fk off..
So I am still sticking to my guns, that we the irish ppl are in the same boat as the greek ppl, there should be solidarity with them..beeftotheheels wrote:I didn't disagree with the post, I merely pointed out that Later10 had misrepresented the degrees of horribleness lurking in the credit rating agencies positions. Ecuador was, until a week previous to that post as bad as it could get yet Greece had just managed to deserve a worse credit rating.
Equador has oil, so i think thats why they might just get away with auditing their debt and calling billions illegal debt and not paying it back..Greece ahs no oil, and neither do we..Greece is selling stakes in water, thats insane to me..
I am not going to reply to any response lol, too busy...0 -
Deutsche Bank chief Josef Ackermann says the financial industry would offer European politicians a solution on Greece because a Greek default would be even more dramatic than the Lehman crisis. "I guarantee we will offer the politicians a solution, but this must prevent a meltdown," he told politicians and bankers in Berlin.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-139549890 -
I'm beginning to wonder where all this will end with Greece. I think with unconfirmed reports of rubber bullets being fired on the crowds and with widespread use of teargas we have now reached the point where the austerity measures stand no chance of being implemented regardless of the vote passed today.
The question then is whether default is triggered tomorrow with the specific austerity bills failing to pass, or whether it is triggered in three months time when Greece fail their next check-up, any plan to disburse money to Greece can now only hope to buy weeks and not the years that were needed.
So, Greece defaults next week or next month, it really doesn't matter. The default will be disorderly and it will be chaotic.
But Europe cannot be seen to renegotiate the Greek deal without renegotiating the Irish and Portuguese deals as well, at this stage moral hazard has to trump contagion. While all the chatter is that there is no plan B (or indeed omega) it is clear that the various regulators are working through the night trying to identify who holds Greek debt and more importantly who holds the credit default swaps.
So those funds readied to bail out Greece may yet be dispersed to quickly bail out the banks who are exposed to Greek debt and swaps. If European governments act quickly and decisively enough (bearing in mind they would be recapitalizing domestic national banks so each State could act unilaterally) then hopefully that could mitigate the risk of contagion.
However, where does that leave Greece? A broken bankrupt society, cut off from the financial markets, cut off from its traditional trading partners, printing money to pay the bills. The budget will have to be balanced at some stage, and reduced FDI will likely limit growth which leaves only the option of the existing austerity measures.
I have to say I remain confused by the mentality of the Greek opposition. They would rather lead a broken Greek State than try to stop the State breaking. What Greece needs right now is leadership. What Greece needs is unity. What Greece needs is for someone to explain to the Greek people that they are in the first circle of hell right now, and while that is clearly not a nice place to be, there are 9 more circles which are worse.
But I don't see this happening.0 -
Advertisement
-
beeftotheheels wrote: »I'm beginning to wonder where all this will end with Greece. I think with unconfirmed reports of rubber bullets being fired on the crowds and with widespread use of teargas we have now reached the point where the austerity measures stand no chance of being implemented regardless of the vote passed today.
The question then is whether default is triggered tomorrow with the specific austerity bills failing to pass, or whether it is triggered in three months time when Greece fail their next check-up, any plan to disburse money to Greece can now only hope to buy weeks and not the years that were needed.
So, Greece defaults next week or next month, it really doesn't matter. The default will be disorderly and it will be chaotic.
But Europe cannot be seen to renegotiate the Greek deal without renegotiating the Irish and Portuguese deals as well, at this stage moral hazard has to trump contagion. While all the chatter is that there is no plan B (or indeed omega) it is clear that the various regulators are working through the night trying to identify who holds Greek debt and more importantly who holds the credit default swaps.
So those funds readied to bail out Greece may yet be dispersed to quickly bail out the banks who are exposed to Greek debt and swaps. If European governments act quickly and decisively enough (bearing in mind they would be recapitalizing domestic national banks so each State could act unilaterally) then hopefully that could mitigate the risk of contagion.
However, where does that leave Greece? A broken bankrupt society, cut off from the financial markets, cut off from its traditional trading partners, printing money to pay the bills. The budget will have to be balanced at some stage, and reduced FDI will likely limit growth which leaves only the option of the existing austerity measures.
I have to say I remain confused by the mentality of the Greek opposition. They would rather lead a broken Greek State than try to stop the State breaking. What Greece needs right now is leadership. What Greece needs is unity. What Greece needs is for someone to explain to the Greek people that they are in the first circle of hell right now, and while that is clearly not a nice place to be, there are 9 more circles which are worse.
But I don't see this happening.
Default is, once again, the lose-lose option. However, I'm beginning to wonder about the whole "rubber bullets + teargas = breakdown of society" thing. I'm not saying that nothing is happening, but I wonder if what's happening is quite as far outside the norms of Greece as it is outside the norms of the countries whose media are portraying it as an apocalyptic scenario. I can't get figures for the size of the protests, but a reference to the numbers of protesters "ballooning" to 30,000 makes me slightly suspicious that the regular number of protesters is not large. The UK FCO's advice for travellers to Greece refers to protests being a "standard feature" and "often quelled with tear gas":Greece is a stable democracy, however, public protests are a standard feature of Greek political life. Take precautions for your personal safety and avoid public gatherings and demonstrations, which have the potential to turn violent and are often quelled with tear gas.
Thinking back on the reportage of our own period of protests, with eirigi trying to get into the Dáil, scuffling in Merrion Row and so on, I can't help but recall that the international media similarly painted an apocalyptic picture there as well ("BLOOD IN THE STREETS! Bank Bailout Protesters Storm Ireland's Parliament") - and speaking as someone who lives in the city centre, and who has a young child, I can safely say that the picture painted by the foreign media was overdone to the point of near-hysteria.
So, we wonders, we does. Media prefer the dramatic at the best of times, but there will also be a lot of people betting on a disorderly Greek default in the near-term.
cordially,
Scofflaw0 -
There's something to bear in mind that, while Greece has a long history of protest and scuffles especially in the city hotspots, the groups would have more likely been anarchists or various extremist groups. In this respect, the use of teargas etc. is nothing unusual at all.
The current protesters do seem to have been drawn more from the non-political element of society though, which may have more of a bearing on the outcome if there is a significant increase in tension.0 -
Default is, once again, the lose-lose option. However, I'm beginning to wonder about the whole "rubber bullets + teargas = breakdown of society" thing. I'm not saying that nothing is happening, but I wonder if what's happening is quite as far outside the norms of Greece as it is outside the norms of the countries whose media are portraying it as an apocalyptic scenario. I can't get figures for the size of the protests, but a reference to the numbers of protesters "ballooning" to 30,000 makes me slightly suspicious that the regular number of protesters is not large. The UK FCO's advice for travellers to Greece refers to protests being a "standard feature" and "often quelled with tear gas":
Thinking back on the reportage of our own period of protests, with eirigi trying to get into the Dáil, scuffling in Merrion Row and so on, I can't help but recall that the international media similarly painted an apocalyptic picture there as well ("BLOOD IN THE STREETS! Bank Bailout Protesters Storm Ireland's Parliament") - and speaking as someone who lives in the city centre, and who has a young child, I can safely say that the picture painted by the foreign media was overdone to the point of near-hysteria.
So, we wonders, we does. Media prefer the dramatic at the best of times, but there will also be a lot of people betting on a disorderly Greek default in the near-term.
cordially,
Scofflaw
I take your point, much like the mayday protests in the City of London where we just swapped our suits for casual clothes and headed into work cheered by the notion that the canteen would be free for the day (because we couldn't leave the office), and they would most likely serve chips (fish and chips normally only being served on a Friday). The place almost had a carnival atmosphere for the day, I remember being upset as a trainee (my first mayday protest) that security wouldn't let me leave the office block I was in to go to another office block across the street, not for a meeting, but because one of my mates had emailed me to tell me how hilarious some of the senior people in his office looked in civvies.
However, and this is the huge however, part of the plan involves adhering to rules which the Greeks dislike at the best of time. It seems like the social contract on which the Greek State currently rests, is paid for by the very over spending which has caused these problems. Whereas the social contract on which UK society rests was historically paid for, to a large extent, by the City which was the subject of the protests rather than the protesting part of society.
Seen in that light the protests are more worrying, the strikes are more worrying, the foundations on which the modern Greek State is built appear to be sand.
So yes, 30k is not a huge number of people, I was one of the hundred of thousands if not a million people who took to the streets of London to protest against the invasion of Iraq. But the sheer number of protesters on the streets didn't achieve anything, what we were protesting against was one decision of the government, not the very fabric of the society in which we lived.
I guess in summary I'm not concerned by the fact that there are protests, or indeed the size of those protests, I'm concerned by the fact that the protesters seem to represent all walks of life in Greece including the public sector and semi states, without whose buy in the austerity measures are doomed to fail.0 -
Good loser wrote: »I thought Peter pretty evasive.
He will not answer ANY questions on the budget deficit (like McWilliams etc) except to state that fixing the bank debt will sort all.
He thinks there's a Santa Claus out there with €50bn/€70bn/€90bn in his arse pocket who's only waiting to be asked nicely to hand it over to Ireland.
He doesn't understand the dynamics of power.
Maybe Miriam's the one to get it for us!
He is a banker not the minister of finance though so one would expect him to have answers on banking issues which is the platform he ran on.
And everybody knows the answer to our deficit issues. Cut our spending and increase taxes in whatever format people are most willing to accept.0 -
I agree with those points - the riots, while more dramatic for the media, are probably of less concern than the strikes.
Not that they don't also strike:November 10, 2005
Aircraft were grounded and many Greek public services shut down as civil servants went on a 24 hour strike on Thursday to demand higher pay and protest against the government's spending cuts.
Greece's two largest carriers, Olympic Airlines and Aegean Airlines, grounded all their flights as air traffic controllers joined the strike. A spokeswoman at Athens Airport said there was no air traffic. Greek TV showed a quiet airport, empty of the usual crowds of passengers.
"There are no planes taking off or landing at all Greek airports. We are only servicing overflights," Manolis Antoniadis, head of the union of air traffic controllers said.
Teachers stayed away from work and local government services came to a halt. Hospitals were operating only with skeleton staff but public transport was running as usual.
Close to 1,000 protesters marched through central Athens to the Finance Ministry, waving banners reading "No To Austerity" and "Dump the budget".
Unionists said there was an overwhelming response from civil servants to the industrial action although government officials were not available to comment.
The strike piles pressure on the conservative government, which is tightening spending in an effort to bring the budget deficit to below the European Union's 3.0 percent deficit cap in 2006, from 6.6 percent in 2004.
"We understand that there are demands which we respect but our policy cannot divert from the recovery program that we have drafted," government spokesman Theodore Rousopoulos said.
Talks on 2006/2007 wage deals are expected to start early next year for both the public and private sectors. The government has said it wants to cap public sector wage rises at 3.2 percent, the forecast for Greek consumer inflation in 2006.
Mind you, I don't know whether that bothers me more, or less.
cordially,
Scofflaw0 -
Mind you, I don't know whether that bothers me more, or less.
cordially,
Scofflaw
Oh that has just cheered me right up that has. They were striking against austerity while cooking the books!????
The hell with protesting against capitalism, I'm thinking about starting a protest movement against the Greek construct that is democracy!0 -
He is a banker not the minister of finance though so one would expect him to have answers on banking issues which is the platform he ran on.
And everybody knows the answer to our deficit issues. Cut our spending and increase taxes in whatever format people are most willing to accept.
He has only one 'answer' to the banking issue and that is simplistic and naive.
As a FG panelist and a banker he should have settled opinions on the budget deficit. He engages in populism by saying the bank debt is the ONLY item that matters.
The answer to the deficit issue is as simple as you state - the hard part is the where and the when i.e. what PM evades.0 -
So, we wonders, we does. Media prefer the dramatic at the best of times, but there will also be a lot of people betting on a disorderly Greek default in the near-term.
cordially,
Scofflaw
Even when the Queen was here Sky news reported as if the whole of Dublin were protested, not a bunch of unemployed, one of the pictures they had on their web site was of a burning shopping trolley and they kept that on for over a week. But RTE is reporting similar to SKY news and CNN what is happening so there might be an element of exageration but I think the main issues are being reported correctly.0 -
Scofflaw wrote:However, I'm beginning to wonder about the whole "rubber bullets + teargas = breakdown of society" thing.
I think you could look at it as the norm and let it continue on, or you could see it as a culmination of years of discontent and growing tension amongst different groups, who've now had common cause created for them through austerity.
Either way, they already have a reputation for not really doing what the state wants them to do. Implementing this austerity program after this is going to be even more difficult then it would've been with a relatively benign population.0 -
Advertisement
-
IMO, if Greece shows political resolve in solving its problems, it will provide enough bona fides to stay within the bounds of a Eurozone-wide resolution. That resolution will involve the distribution of much of the costs across the public and private sectors in the member countries.beeftotheheels wrote: »I'm beginning to wonder where all this will end with Greece. I think with unconfirmed reports of rubber bullets being fired on the crowds and with widespread use of teargas we have now reached the point where the austerity measures stand no chance of being implemented regardless of the vote passed today.
The question then is whether default is triggered tomorrow with the specific austerity bills failing to pass, or whether it is triggered in three months time when Greece fail their next check-up, any plan to disburse money to Greece can now only hope to buy weeks and not the years that were needed.
So, Greece defaults next week or next month, it really doesn't matter. The default will be disorderly and it will be chaotic.
But Europe cannot be seen to renegotiate the Greek deal without renegotiating the Irish and Portuguese deals as well, at this stage moral hazard has to trump contagion. While all the chatter is that there is no plan B (or indeed omega) it is clear that the various regulators are working through the night trying to identify who holds Greek debt and more importantly who holds the credit default swaps.
So those funds readied to bail out Greece may yet be dispersed to quickly bail out the banks who are exposed to Greek debt and swaps. If European governments act quickly and decisively enough (bearing in mind they would be recapitalizing domestic national banks so each State could act unilaterally) then hopefully that could mitigate the risk of contagion.
However, where does that leave Greece? A broken bankrupt society, cut off from the financial markets, cut off from its traditional trading partners, printing money to pay the bills. The budget will have to be balanced at some stage, and reduced FDI will likely limit growth which leaves only the option of the existing austerity measures.
I have to say I remain confused by the mentality of the Greek opposition. They would rather lead a broken Greek State than try to stop the State breaking. What Greece needs right now is leadership. What Greece needs is unity. What Greece needs is for someone to explain to the Greek people that they are in the first circle of hell right now, and while that is clearly not a nice place to be, there are 9 more circles which are worse.
But I don't see this happening.
Call it a default or burden-sharing or whatever. But it will be an agreed resolution supported by Eurozone-wide reforming macroeconomic and financial action combined with a strengthening of the Eurozone's architecture that. And it will be orderly. As such, the markets will have to accept the outcome. And I would expect they will be back in buying Eurozone and national bonds before long. Because there'll be profits to be made.0
Advertisement