May 2011 Boards forecast contest

Tae laidir

10.9 ... 23.2 ... 1.2 ... 95 ... 105 ... 17.4

Su Campu

10.9 ... 25.3 ... 0.3 ... 95% ... 100% ... 15.5

snowstreams

12.0 ... 24.8 ... 1.1 ... 85% ... 120% ... 17.5

SeaFields

10.9c...24.5c...3.1c...110%...90%...19.4

ch750536

10.4c...25.1c...2.6c...86%...90%...18.3

Rebelbrowser

I know I'm late but
12c...24.7c...2.7c...115%...81%...15.9c

M.T. Cranium

Just a reminder, for late entrants ... the penalty for entering today (up to 0300h Tuesday will count) is fairly minor and even if you take your one-time "late late" option on Tuesday 3rd the penalty is not too severe, so to keep your place in the annual scoring table it's worth taking these penalties to avoid missing a month.

I will work on a table for the month later today when almost all the entries are likely to be filed.

jambofc

11.3 ... 24.2 ... 1.4 ... 90% ... 115% ... 14.6

am i to late??

M.T. Cranium

May 2011 forecasts
___________________________

FORECASTER .... IMT .... MAX .... MIN .... PRC .... SUN .... Bal-8
______________________________________________________________

4sheets** ....... 12.6 ..... 22.2 ..... 3.5 ..... 085 ..... 110 ..... 12.0
M.T. Cranium .... 12.5 ..... 23.8 .... -0.2 ..... 115 ..... 100 ..... 16.6
Danno ............. 12.1 ..... 25.3 .... -1.9 ..... 145 ..... 115 ..... 15.7
redsunset ........ 12.0 ..... 23.0 ..... 3.0 ..... 100 ..... 140 ..... 17.0
Rebelbrowser* .. 12.0 ..... 24.7 ..... 2.7 ..... 115 ..... 081 ..... 15.9
snowstreams .... 12.0 ..... 24.8 ..... 1.1 ..... 085 ..... 120 ..... 17.5
kindredspirit ..... 12.0 ..... 25.0 ..... 0.5 ..... 120 ..... 100 ..... 18.0
nacho libre ....... 11.9 ..... 25.2 ..... 0.4 ..... 085 ..... 135 ..... 17.6
200motels ........ 11.9 ..... 28.5 ..... 1.9 ..... 129 ..... 085 ..... 22.0
dacogawa ........ 11.8 ..... 25.6 ..... 1.2 ..... 137 ..... 112 ..... 17.2
jd ................... 11.6 ..... 25.2 ..... 2.2 ..... 108 ..... 116 ..... 19.1
fionagus .......... 11.6 ..... 23.4 ..... 0.6 ..... 090 ..... 110 ..... 16.7
dasa29 ............ 11.5 ..... 23.5 ..... 1.5 ..... 110 ..... 120 ..... 15.5
Sponge Bob ...... 11.4 ..... 24.2 ..... 0.8 ..... 088 ..... 119 ..... 14.4
pauldry ............ 11.4 ..... 25.7 ..... 1.8 ..... 125 ..... 101 ..... 17.1
thetonynator .... 11.4 ..... 22.0 ..... 0.9 ..... 087 ..... 115 ..... 15.9
hellboy99 ......... 11.3 ..... 24.7 ..... 1.0 ..... 102 ..... 107 ..... 17.8
jambofc**........ 11.3 ..... 24.2 ..... 1.4 ..... 090 ..... 115 ..... 14.6
nilhg ............... 11.2 ..... 22.2 ..... 2.8 ..... 088 ..... 111 ..... 19.1
MiNdGaM3 ........ 11.1 ..... 24.9 .... -0.8 ..... 100 ..... 115 ..... 17.7

Con Sensus ...... 11.1 ..... 24.6 ..... 1.0 ..... 100 ..... 105 ..... 17.5

homolumo ........ 11.1 ..... 24.1 ..... 1.1 ..... 118 ..... 107 ..... 15.0
John mac ......... 11.0 ..... 25.5 ..... 1.1 ..... 115 ..... 110 ..... 19.2
TheInquisitor .... 11.0 ..... 27.4 ..... 1.0 ..... 156 ..... 090 ..... 19.0
DeepEasterly .... 11.0 ..... 22.9 ..... 0.8 ..... 120 ..... 105 ..... 16.1
Jerry Seinfeld ... 11.0 ..... 23.8 ..... 0.5 ..... 080 ..... 120 ..... 18.0
fizzycyst ......... 11.0 ..... 24.2 ..... 1.0 ..... 095 ..... 105 ..... 18.3
Joe Public ........ 10.9 ..... 23.9 .... -0.9 ..... 099 ..... 099 ..... 19.9
harps .............. 10.9 ..... 24.5 ..... 0.9 ..... 130 ..... 100 ..... 15.0
SeaFields ......... 10.9 ..... 24.5 ..... 3.1 ..... 110 ..... 090 ..... 19.4
Su Campu ........ 10.9 ..... 25.3 ..... 0.3 ..... 095 ..... 100 ..... 15.5
Tae laidir ......... 10.9 ..... 23.2 ..... 1.2 ..... 095 ..... 105 ..... 17.4
Mickger844pst .. 10.9 ..... 23.9 ..... 1.4 ..... 091 ..... 119 ..... 17.1
rameire ............ 10.7 ..... 26.1 .... -0.4 ..... 076 ..... 112 ..... 18.1
talkabout ......... 10.5 ..... 23.7 ..... 1.1 ..... 110 ..... 092 ..... 14.2
ch750536* ....... 10.4 ..... 25.1 ..... 2.6 ..... 086 ..... 090 ..... 18.3
waterways ....... 10.3 ..... 24.9 .... -0.9 ..... 137 ..... 089 ..... 17.0
DOCARCH ......... 10.1 ..... 23.6 ..... 0.8 ..... 108 ..... 096 ..... 18.6
BEASTERLY ...... 10.1 ..... 23.6 ..... 3.7 ..... 130 ..... 080 ..... 18.3

________________

* late entries (2nd)

** "Late late" entries are still welcome for contestants with 3 or 4 entries already in 2011. These must be made today (3rd May). See post #1 for rules on bonus question.

4Sheets

12.6 ... 22.2 ... 3.5 ... 85% ... 110% ... 12.0

Better late than never I suddenly realized given the annual scoring tables and my lowly position in it.
Perhaps not fair to predict 8th of Sunday so feel free to penalize as necessary!

M.T. Cranium

That's fine, you'll see in post #1 that I anticipated the late-late advantage on the 8th and the most you can score there is 5/10, also late-late entries are penalized from scores of 50+ at the same rate as late entries from 60+ ... so there is no advantage to taking this option, but it does keep your annual contest position intact.

In all probability then, the May contest is now closed to further entries. Good luck to everyone. The April scores are posted in the annual thread now.

pauldry

Just watched the BBC forecast and for the next 5 days its promised 17 or 18c by day for NIre and 8 or 9c by night due to a Southerly. This will bring the IMT up to 12c for the first 10 days of the month Id reckon and then if we have any mini heatwaves for the rest of the month wer all fecked once more. Except you MT.;)

M.T. Cranium

First week of May in the books ...

IMT sits at 12.3 C ... will estimate this at 11.5 by mid-month as it looks a bit cooler next week.

rainfall, estimated 150% ... I have to estimate because one or two stations used in the monthly summary are missing and the ag report has a very high report for Roches Point which won't be part of that monthly summary average ... so the estimate is 150% and the range is quite large, from below half in some parts of central Ireland to 510% at Cork.

sunshine ... 84%, would have been near 100% except for a very dull period at Cork which only managed 15%. Some stations were above average.

Today and Monday look wet enough to move the rainfall up to perhaps 180% on the national scale after 9 days, so that would imply a guaranteed minimum of 100% if the rest of the month manages half normal.

Sponge Bob

Cork Airport has already bust 100% of mean May rainfall and Valentia and Shannon are both close to it.

The Mullet is over half way but Malin is not even close at 12.4mm as against a 58.9mm mean!

Johnstown castle is at 25% of mean and us past 25% of the month and I very much doubt it will make 100%

http://www.met.ie/climate/monthly-data.asp?Num=475

M.T. Cranium

Ballyhaise max was 16.7 C on the 8th, congrats to Fionagus who was "spot on" with that value. Second closest to the pin was 16.6 C (fixed). Points will be reasonably generous for all, we'll have two at ten, then four at each of the remaining values (assuming no ties). The field did quite well on this question, I thought (from 7-10 days). Specific penalties apply to the two late entries but won't make a big difference to them.

nacho libre

I should have gone with my initial hunch that May would make up for April in terms of rainfall:D

pauldry

Think that the height of IMTness has been reached for May now and its happy days for all below 12c except if theres a warm spell in the last week. The weather is so fickle round now.

M.T. Cranium

Update based on second week through 14 days ...

IMT for the second week was 11.6, overall about 11.9 C ... this should continue to drift down for a while.

Rainfall at about 140%, maintains the monthly average at 145% and this guarantees a finish above 100% if there is as little as 60% normal rain to end of the month (about what one might estimate from current charts).

Sunshine for the week was 111% leaving us at 97% for the month.

dacogawa

Congratulations M.T. on passing 500,000 views on the daily forecasts thread!

pauldry

MT a legend, IMT 11.84

M.T. Cranium

Thanks, this month has been notably lacking in temperature extremes, and Belmullet on Monday 16th managed a diurnal range of only 1.2 deg, from a low of 11.3 to a high of 12.5 C. That must be pretty close to an all-time record for such narrow ranges. I noticed a temperature of about 3.5 the other day which seems to be the lowest so far this month. Figure that might be edged out on any clear night even in a warm spell. And the highest I have seen is about 18 deg. Charts are showing potential for low to mid 20s later this month.

Deep Easterly

Figures not updated on met.ie site yet up to the 18th but up to the 17th, the May IMT mean maxima was 15.2c, 0.9c above 61-90 normal for the period 1st to 17th May. For the same period last year (2010) it was on 13.4c, or 0.8c below normal.


IMR ('Irish mean rainfall' using same 5 stations for IMT stats but not used in comp) % of 61-90 normal for the month of May so far up to the 17th was 107%; this time last year, the IMR was just 69% for the same period.

M.T. Cranium

IMT updated to 11.7 C

Mullingar had 2.5 C for its minimum on Thursday, and I think this is the lowest reading of the month so far. The highest I can recall seeing is 18.1 but anyway that should be eclipsed a few times before we're done.

Sponge Bob

Rainfall stats in the west are getting a refresh today with more to follow, IMT looks like bottoming as of tuesday/weds and stabilising to rising thereafter.

M.T. Cranium

Updates for the third week, through 21 days ...

IMT now sits at 11.6 C ... that would be about the estimate for the next ten days also, in which case 11.6 will be the finishing number (if anything, slightly lower by end of week, will take a warm day or two to recover).

Rainfall of 126% this past week has nudged the running average down to about 139% ... this may now remain about constant with a few more significant additions this week.

Sunshine fell off considerably, the week managed only 53% and this leaves the month at 82%. Hard to see this improving now, perhaps very slightly.

M.T. Cranium

Looking for an event on the weekend of 11-12 June ... so far by doing a search I came up with the Cork Festival ... any suggestions welcome, make them by 6 p.m. Friday as I need to post a bonus question with the contest on Friday (it's that time again).

The IMT has been hovering around 11.4-11.5 from my calculations the past two days. It could stay there to the 30th but the 31st was looking warmer, so would speculate the finishing value 11.5-11.7 perhaps.

Rain and sun likely to stay near the current values which I estimate to be 120% and 80%.

rameire

the taste of dublin is on In Iveagh gardens from the 9th to 12th of june.

Sponge Bob

IMT stations

Casement = 11.5
Oak Park = 11.3
Shannon = 11.9
Claremorris = 11.1
Mullingar= 10.8

11.32 and still falling if you ask me!

M.T. Cranium

Fourth week 22-28 May leaves the stats as follows:

IMT 11.3

rainfall for the week was 122% (quite a variation with the south coast dry) and this edges the month down to 134%.

sunshine was 99% which actually improved the month to 87%.

Final figures won't be far from any of these. Unless it warms up on the 31st, the mercy rule may be needed for the monthly max, rather odd since the month has come in somewhat above average despite the recent cool spell.

pauldry

New min for the month is been set. Its currently 2c in mullingar and dropping. Could also affect the IMT.