May 2011 Boards forecast contest

M.T. Cranium

Deadline for entries without penalty: end of day, Sunday 1 May.

penalties apply to late entries as in previous months.

The usual five questions plus a bonus:

1. Mean temp (IMT five stations), normal for 1961-90 was 10.4 C

2. Max temp at all met.ie stations

3. Min temp at all met.ie stations

4. Rainfall (% of normal) at all met.ie stations reporting

5. Sunshine (% of normal) at all met.ie stations reporting

6. Max temp on Sunday 8th at Ballyhaise (no particular reason, but this is fairly short-range by our standards, so please note, late entries on 2nd would lose 2 points and late-late one-time entrants on 3rd, held to max of 5/10 as well as losing 2 points).

---

pauldry

11.4c...25.7c...1.8c...125%...101%...17.1c

TheInquisitor

11c...27.4c...1c...156%...90%...19c

talkabout

10.5c...23.7c...1.1c...110%...92%...14.2c

Deep Easterly

11.0c...22.9c...0.8c...120%...105%...16.1c

200motels

11.9...28.5...1.9...129...85...22

Redsunset

12...23...3...100...140...17

homolumo

11.1c...24.1c...1.1c...118%...107%...15.0c

Harps

10.9...24.5...0.9...130...100...15

DOCARCH

10.1c...23.6c...0.8c...108%...96%...18.6c

Speak Now

11.0...23.8...0.5...80...120...18

MiNdGaM3

11.1C... 24.9C... -0.8C... 100%... 115%... 17.7C

mickger844posts

10.9c...23.9c...1.4c...91%...119%...17.1c

fizzycyst

11...24.2...1...95...105...18.3

dasa29

11.5c...23.5c...1.5c...110%...120%...15.5c

Lumi

11.6...23.4...0.6...90...110...16.7

John mac

11.0...25.5...1.1...115...110...19.2

Joe Public

10.9...23.9...-.9...99...99...19.9

nilhg

11.2c...22.2c...2.8c...88%...111%...19.1c

thetonynator

11.4...22.0...0.9...87...115...15.9

BEASTERLY

10.1...23.6...3.7...130%...80%...18.3c

jd

11.6c...25.2c...2.2c...108%...116%...19.1c

11.3 ..... 24.7 ..... 1 ..... 102 ..... 107 ..... 17.8

Danno

12.1... 25.3... -1.9... 145%... 115%... 15.7

rameire

10.7 ... 26.1 ... -0.4 ... 76 ... 112 ... 18.1

dacogawa

11.8... 25.6... 1.2... 137%... 112%... 17.2c

M.T. Cranium

12.5 ..... 23.8 ..... -0.2 ..... 115 ..... 100 ..... 16.6

Sponge Bob

11.4...24.2...0.8...88...119...14.4

kindredspirit

MT, Waterways has asked me to enter her forecast as she is sailing on the high seas with no computer internet connection:I presume that's OK.

Waterways forecast for May.

10.3 ..... 24.9 ..... -0.9 ..... 137 ..... 89 ..... 17

kindredspirit

This is my own forecast for May.


12.0 ..... 25.0 ..... 0.5 ..... 120 ..... 100 ..... 18

nacho libre

11.9... 25.2... 0.4... 85%... 135%... 17.6

Tae laidir

10.9 ... 23.2 ... 1.2 ... 95 ... 105 ... 17.4

Su Campu

10.9 ... 25.3 ... 0.3 ... 95% ... 100% ... 15.5

snowstreams

12.0 ... 24.8 ... 1.1 ... 85% ... 120% ... 17.5

SeaFields

10.9c...24.5c...3.1c...110%...90%...19.4

ch750536

10.4c...25.1c...2.6c...86%...90%...18.3

Rebelbrowser

I know I'm late but
12c...24.7c...2.7c...115%...81%...15.9c

M.T. Cranium

Just a reminder, for late entrants ... the penalty for entering today (up to 0300h Tuesday will count) is fairly minor and even if you take your one-time "late late" option on Tuesday 3rd the penalty is not too severe, so to keep your place in the annual scoring table it's worth taking these penalties to avoid missing a month.

I will work on a table for the month later today when almost all the entries are likely to be filed.

jambofc

11.3 ... 24.2 ... 1.4 ... 90% ... 115% ... 14.6

am i to late??

M.T. Cranium

May 2011 forecasts
___________________________

FORECASTER .... IMT .... MAX .... MIN .... PRC .... SUN .... Bal-8
______________________________________________________________

4sheets** ....... 12.6 ..... 22.2 ..... 3.5 ..... 085 ..... 110 ..... 12.0
M.T. Cranium .... 12.5 ..... 23.8 .... -0.2 ..... 115 ..... 100 ..... 16.6
Danno ............. 12.1 ..... 25.3 .... -1.9 ..... 145 ..... 115 ..... 15.7
redsunset ........ 12.0 ..... 23.0 ..... 3.0 ..... 100 ..... 140 ..... 17.0
Rebelbrowser* .. 12.0 ..... 24.7 ..... 2.7 ..... 115 ..... 081 ..... 15.9
snowstreams .... 12.0 ..... 24.8 ..... 1.1 ..... 085 ..... 120 ..... 17.5
kindredspirit ..... 12.0 ..... 25.0 ..... 0.5 ..... 120 ..... 100 ..... 18.0
nacho libre ....... 11.9 ..... 25.2 ..... 0.4 ..... 085 ..... 135 ..... 17.6
200motels ........ 11.9 ..... 28.5 ..... 1.9 ..... 129 ..... 085 ..... 22.0
dacogawa ........ 11.8 ..... 25.6 ..... 1.2 ..... 137 ..... 112 ..... 17.2
jd ................... 11.6 ..... 25.2 ..... 2.2 ..... 108 ..... 116 ..... 19.1
fionagus .......... 11.6 ..... 23.4 ..... 0.6 ..... 090 ..... 110 ..... 16.7
dasa29 ............ 11.5 ..... 23.5 ..... 1.5 ..... 110 ..... 120 ..... 15.5
Sponge Bob ...... 11.4 ..... 24.2 ..... 0.8 ..... 088 ..... 119 ..... 14.4
pauldry ............ 11.4 ..... 25.7 ..... 1.8 ..... 125 ..... 101 ..... 17.1
thetonynator .... 11.4 ..... 22.0 ..... 0.9 ..... 087 ..... 115 ..... 15.9
hellboy99 ......... 11.3 ..... 24.7 ..... 1.0 ..... 102 ..... 107 ..... 17.8
jambofc**........ 11.3 ..... 24.2 ..... 1.4 ..... 090 ..... 115 ..... 14.6
nilhg ............... 11.2 ..... 22.2 ..... 2.8 ..... 088 ..... 111 ..... 19.1
MiNdGaM3 ........ 11.1 ..... 24.9 .... -0.8 ..... 100 ..... 115 ..... 17.7

Con Sensus ...... 11.1 ..... 24.6 ..... 1.0 ..... 100 ..... 105 ..... 17.5

homolumo ........ 11.1 ..... 24.1 ..... 1.1 ..... 118 ..... 107 ..... 15.0
John mac ......... 11.0 ..... 25.5 ..... 1.1 ..... 115 ..... 110 ..... 19.2
TheInquisitor .... 11.0 ..... 27.4 ..... 1.0 ..... 156 ..... 090 ..... 19.0
DeepEasterly .... 11.0 ..... 22.9 ..... 0.8 ..... 120 ..... 105 ..... 16.1
Jerry Seinfeld ... 11.0 ..... 23.8 ..... 0.5 ..... 080 ..... 120 ..... 18.0
fizzycyst ......... 11.0 ..... 24.2 ..... 1.0 ..... 095 ..... 105 ..... 18.3
Joe Public ........ 10.9 ..... 23.9 .... -0.9 ..... 099 ..... 099 ..... 19.9
harps .............. 10.9 ..... 24.5 ..... 0.9 ..... 130 ..... 100 ..... 15.0
SeaFields ......... 10.9 ..... 24.5 ..... 3.1 ..... 110 ..... 090 ..... 19.4
Su Campu ........ 10.9 ..... 25.3 ..... 0.3 ..... 095 ..... 100 ..... 15.5
Tae laidir ......... 10.9 ..... 23.2 ..... 1.2 ..... 095 ..... 105 ..... 17.4
Mickger844pst .. 10.9 ..... 23.9 ..... 1.4 ..... 091 ..... 119 ..... 17.1
rameire ............ 10.7 ..... 26.1 .... -0.4 ..... 076 ..... 112 ..... 18.1
talkabout ......... 10.5 ..... 23.7 ..... 1.1 ..... 110 ..... 092 ..... 14.2
ch750536* ....... 10.4 ..... 25.1 ..... 2.6 ..... 086 ..... 090 ..... 18.3
waterways ....... 10.3 ..... 24.9 .... -0.9 ..... 137 ..... 089 ..... 17.0
DOCARCH ......... 10.1 ..... 23.6 ..... 0.8 ..... 108 ..... 096 ..... 18.6
BEASTERLY ...... 10.1 ..... 23.6 ..... 3.7 ..... 130 ..... 080 ..... 18.3

________________

* late entries (2nd)

** "Late late" entries are still welcome for contestants with 3 or 4 entries already in 2011. These must be made today (3rd May). See post #1 for rules on bonus question.

4Sheets

12.6 ... 22.2 ... 3.5 ... 85% ... 110% ... 12.0

Better late than never I suddenly realized given the annual scoring tables and my lowly position in it.
Perhaps not fair to predict 8th of Sunday so feel free to penalize as necessary!

M.T. Cranium

That's fine, you'll see in post #1 that I anticipated the late-late advantage on the 8th and the most you can score there is 5/10, also late-late entries are penalized from scores of 50+ at the same rate as late entries from 60+ ... so there is no advantage to taking this option, but it does keep your annual contest position intact.

In all probability then, the May contest is now closed to further entries. Good luck to everyone. The April scores are posted in the annual thread now.

pauldry

Just watched the BBC forecast and for the next 5 days its promised 17 or 18c by day for NIre and 8 or 9c by night due to a Southerly. This will bring the IMT up to 12c for the first 10 days of the month Id reckon and then if we have any mini heatwaves for the rest of the month wer all fecked once more. Except you MT.;)

M.T. Cranium

First week of May in the books ...

IMT sits at 12.3 C ... will estimate this at 11.5 by mid-month as it looks a bit cooler next week.

rainfall, estimated 150% ... I have to estimate because one or two stations used in the monthly summary are missing and the ag report has a very high report for Roches Point which won't be part of that monthly summary average ... so the estimate is 150% and the range is quite large, from below half in some parts of central Ireland to 510% at Cork.

sunshine ... 84%, would have been near 100% except for a very dull period at Cork which only managed 15%. Some stations were above average.

Today and Monday look wet enough to move the rainfall up to perhaps 180% on the national scale after 9 days, so that would imply a guaranteed minimum of 100% if the rest of the month manages half normal.

Sponge Bob

Cork Airport has already bust 100% of mean May rainfall and Valentia and Shannon are both close to it.

The Mullet is over half way but Malin is not even close at 12.4mm as against a 58.9mm mean!

Johnstown castle is at 25% of mean and us past 25% of the month and I very much doubt it will make 100%

http://www.met.ie/climate/monthly-data.asp?Num=475

M.T. Cranium

Ballyhaise max was 16.7 C on the 8th, congrats to Fionagus who was "spot on" with that value. Second closest to the pin was 16.6 C (fixed). Points will be reasonably generous for all, we'll have two at ten, then four at each of the remaining values (assuming no ties). The field did quite well on this question, I thought (from 7-10 days). Specific penalties apply to the two late entries but won't make a big difference to them.

nacho libre

I should have gone with my initial hunch that May would make up for April in terms of rainfall:D

pauldry

Think that the height of IMTness has been reached for May now and its happy days for all below 12c except if theres a warm spell in the last week. The weather is so fickle round now.

M.T. Cranium

Update based on second week through 14 days ...

IMT for the second week was 11.6, overall about 11.9 C ... this should continue to drift down for a while.

Rainfall at about 140%, maintains the monthly average at 145% and this guarantees a finish above 100% if there is as little as 60% normal rain to end of the month (about what one might estimate from current charts).

Sunshine for the week was 111% leaving us at 97% for the month.

dacogawa

Congratulations M.T. on passing 500,000 views on the daily forecasts thread!

pauldry

MT a legend, IMT 11.84