How bad can things possibly get here?

paulieeye

Hi folks,

Was talking about the economy the other day and the topic came up of how bad things could realistically and also potentially get.

What are your views on this? How bad could this country get..what is the very very worst case? All banks go bust..etc What would the effects be for the normal guy on the street, complete lack of social welfare..etc?

greendom

paulieeye wrote: »

Hi folks,

Was talking about the economy the other day and the topic came up of how bad things could realistically and also potentially get.

What are your views on this? How bad could this country get..what is the very very worst case? All banks go bust..etc What would the effects be for the normal guy on the street, complete lack of social welfare..etc?

That sounds pretty bad alright

jakdelad

paulieeye wrote: »

Hi folks,

Was talking about the economy the other day and the topic came up of how bad things could realistically and also potentially get.

What are your views on this? How bad could this country get..what is the very very worst case? All banks go bust..etc What would the effects be for the normal guy on the street, complete lack of social welfare..etc?

start digging the pit fill it with water n beans
start watching bear grylls
lock n load buy a good skinning knife
get some flares a radio lots of coffe [not the aldi sh1te]
loo rolls condoms[well you never know]
a buy n sell
sit tight suck a sweet and watch for movement
this is gonna get ugly ......

loldog

One of the roles of a Central Bank, as I understand it, is to regulate the Money Supply. So, it's in the hands of the ECB to ensure that this kind of crisis doesn't happen. Such a scenario would be a death-blow to the euro, they're not going to let that happen.

If Ireland is struggling to pay the debt FF assumed on our behalf, then we're going to have some kind of rescheduling/restructuring like the Young Plan.

In other words, don't worry about it. It's their problem as much as ours.

.

Delancey

Everyone has a different opinion on how things will develop , my own guess is that while our export based companies will perform very well I think the domestic or ' real ' economy will stagnate and the strong export performance will not be able to make up for this - unemployment and emigration will rise , confidence will remain low and will not be helped by increases in overt as well as ' stealth ' taxes.

The banks will remain solvent thanks to the taxpayer bailout , whether businesses and consumers will continue to have problems accessing credit may prove to be a moot point - I'm not convinced that the demand for credit will be strong given the very low level of confidence.

Mass disorder ? Despite all the stories on boards of the government and security forces preparing for a doomsday scenario I reckon that though a few protests will get out of hand we will not see tanks / armoured cars on the streets ( something which will surely disappoint the doommongers out there ) .

Solnskaya

My predictions:
1. average house price- 90k.
2. Interest rates, 12%
3.Social welfare, avg €100 / wk
4.Unemployment, 18%
4.Emmigration, rampant.
4.Lots of older cars, lots of house repossessions, lots of low level crime.
5.Lots of formerly public assets in foreign, private ownership
6.Loopy levels of taxation
7.Large black economy
Don't see a rosy future for the auld sod. And no, I'm not unemployed, no I don't have a mortgage, and no im not a left winger. Scoffy will be along shortly to tell you just how wrong I am and how good things will turn out.

hinault

I think things will get worse generally.

I think property prices have some way to fall yet.
I think unemployment will remain static or increase slightly. I cannot see unemployment falling because there is no growth in the industry's which can generate short/medium term employment.
I think emigration will be a fact of life for the best part of the next decade.

The debt burden - banking debt, fiscal debt, personal debt - is huge and it is the over riding factor that will prevent things getting better here.

ilovesleep

Solnskaya wrote: »

4.Lots of older cars,

Wrong about that one! The NCT won't allow it.

robtri

ilovesleep wrote: »

Wrong about that one! The NCT won't allow it.

why the NCT doesnt Ban older cars.....

GSF

if things get REALLY bad, people might even take the bus. Or walk, or cycle! :eek:

Mr Benevolent

Put it like this... three months ago 100 of us were hired and now we're told our jobs can easily be transferred to Manila.

super_furry

As long as there's King Crisps, Brennans bread and Dutch Gold, we'll be grand.

Relax the cacks.

stovelid

Solnskaya wrote: »

Lots of older cars,.

GOOD LORD NO!!!!!

whiteonion

paulieeye wrote: »

Hi folks,

Was talking about the economy the other day and the topic came up of how bad things could realistically and also potentially get.

What are your views on this? How bad could this country get..what is the very very worst case? All banks go bust..etc What would the effects be for the normal guy on the street, complete lack of social welfare..etc?

Well in Latvia just a couple of years ago the austerity measures were so severe that you had old people going out on the streets begging. I will expect IMF to slash all sorts of heating allowance for old people. I expect to hear plenty of reports of old people freezing to death in their houses in the years to come.

bonerm

paulieeye wrote: »

Hi folks,

Was talking about the economy the other day and the topic came up of how bad things could realistically and also potentially get.

We're just at the tip of the icepop. The worst is yet to come.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O3ZOKDmorj0

holystungun9

GSF wrote: »

if things get REALLY bad, people might even take the bus. Or walk, or cycle! :eek:

Oh dear lord, it's worse than I thought!!

Solnskaya

whiteonion wrote: »

Well in Latvia just a couple of years ago the austerity measures were so severe that you had old people going out on the streets begging. I will expect IMF to slash all sorts of heating allowance for old people. I expect to hear plenty of reports of old people freezing to death in their houses in the years to come.

we can just do what the govt has done for the last ten years, and burn money to keep them warm(at least I think they were burning it, sure how else could you get rid of so much in so short a time?)-

CrazyRabbit

There is no recession. It's just that the economy has returned to the way it was before the boom of the 90's.

Tigger

Is tat firekitten's avatar?

Shulgin

There will be a major uprising when enough people feel the squeeze. Hopefully this will happen before the vultures take all of our state assets to pay for rich gambler's debts.

Chuck Stone

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WOuQPZqcEbk

Mr Benevolent

Shulgin wrote: »

There will be a major uprising when enough people feel the squeeze. Hopefully this will happen before the vultures take all of our state assets to pay for rich gambler's debts.

People have said this a million times before, and it never happens. We're apathetic as a country.

Messi2

The sun will still rise in the east and set in the west, and life will go on.

Shulgin

Confab wrote: »

People have said this a million times before, and it never happens. We're apathetic as a country.

Most people are still living pretty comfortably, Still living on the last remaining illusions of the 'celtic tiger', when that illusion fades away enough then so will the apathy. It is a ticking timebomb.

Orando Broom

I can see a lot of Restaurants losing a michelin star. A lot of golf clubs will have to dramatically lower their prices thus losing their all important exclusivity. Rabble will roam the courses unfettered. I would imagine people will have to cut back on weekend breaks and the ski holiday will be a thing of the past. Not as many people will have shares in racehorses.

gbee

With a few exceptions, one would see no difference in the average long term SW recipient or indeed the spending power of the average CS as all have black economy activities on the side.

As you know, the Gardai want in on this action as they are the only CS that cannot take part time jobs.

In an ironic way, the BEST thing for this county is to default. We are only supporting a monopolistic regime in paying in paying our way and we are paying to be suppressed ~ madness.

TheZohanS

CrazyRabbit wrote: »

There is no recession. It's just that the economy has returned to the way it was before the boom if the 90's.

There are a couple of things wrong with that statement.

iamstop

Bread rations,
Telescreens,
Big Brother,
Gin rations
Ministry for Education
Ministry for Sex
Double Speak
The bells of St. Clement's

super_furry

Minsitry for Sex you say?

Pauleta

Worst case scenario is the garda, army, social welfare and all civil servants will go unpaid. The people will get out onto the streets and riot and with no garda or army around, carnage will ensue, feeding into the hands of loons like Joe Higgin and Sinn Fein to start an unelected socialist country.

Duckworth_Luas

super_furry wrote: »

Minsitry for Sex you say?

But with Mary Harney as Minster for Sex.

coup1917

Confab wrote: »

We're apathetic as a country.

:mad::mad:

Dwellingdweller

Pauleta wrote: »

Worst case scenario is the garda, army, social welfare and all civil servants will go unpaid. The people will get out onto the streets and riot and with no garda or army around, carnage will ensue, feeding into the hands of loons like Joe Higgin and Sinn Fein to start an unelected socialist country.

Sure Germany would never allow that :rolleyes:

Confab

Confab wrote: »

Put it like this... three months ago 100 of us were hired and now we're told our jobs can easily be transferred to Manila.

Trust me when I say you'll have a better lifestyle on the dole in Ireland than being the Filipino working your call centre job in Manila.

TheZohanS

Deleted User wrote: »

Trust me when I say you'll have a better lifestyle on the dole in Ireland than being the Filipino working your call centre job in Manila.

Yeah but that doesn't help the people here that lose their jobs. 11850 directory enquiries let off most of their Irish staff a few years ago and transferred all their jobs over to Manila...11890 on the other-hand are committed to keeping jobs in Ireland.

Just shows what you can do when your company cares about it's workers.

molequidgallus

Anarchy, the state will plunder into anarchy. The people will govern themselves, as there wont be enough numbers of gardai to patrol everywhere & keep a lid on the crime[there aren't at the moment]. They're not gonna listen to the cops & politicians if it comes to anarchy. I'd say if what you typed regarding the banks going bust, social being cut off altogether, people wont just sit back & wait for Kenny & company to sort it out. They'll go out and get their bread and butter by whatever means necessary. It will be inevitable, you wouldn't sit around and watch your children starve or be deprived of the simple necessities of life, would you? I know I wouldn't & I'd do whatever it takes to provide for my daughter if it became that bad. The ordinary honest decent civilian will be forced to a crime if everything went bust.

molequidgallus

Duckworth_Luas wrote: »

But with Mary Harney as Minster for Sex.

Priceless:D She'd have some job at that. Her poor husband:eek:

Dwellingdweller

molequidgallus wrote: »

Priceless:D She'd have some job at that. Her poor husband:eek:

Sure there's plenty of her to go around

molequidgallus

Solnskaya wrote: »

we can just do what the govt has done for the last ten years, and burn money to keep them warm(at least I think they were burning it, sure how else could you get rid of so much in so short a time?)-

Not really a problem if you've got bertie ahern & charlie haughey at the helm of the ship. They take it for themselves & families to maintain their high life style. Wouldn't surprise me if bertie ran away to nigeria, I cannot believe the nigerians are turning to him for advice on how to run a country. I would soil myself with laughter if history repeated itself over there. Only the wouldn't let him away with it, he would be exterminated over there for what he did here.

molequidgallus

robtri wrote: »

why the NCT doesnt Ban older cars.....

You mean ban s#1t heaps. Not older cars, we couldn't forget about old cars, the Model T, Porsche 924 turbo, Chrysler Turbine, E- type Jag. It would be crazy to get rid of 'older cars' we'd have no classics, vintage's to look back at. An the closest thing our kids would every see would be pictures. Ban unroad worthy sh#1t heap junkers yes, but not all the good ones.

electrobanana

WONT SOMEBODY PLEASE THINK THE CHILDREN:eek:

whiteonion

I came across some visionaries and their visions for the future of Ireland is grim indeed. I dare you to watch.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AaqZJANa0Jk

Agent J

Go pick up a book on the famine during the 1840s.

People need (myself included at times) a sense of historical perpective.

This country will fall futher but we will still have it much better than previous generations.

jakdelad

molequidgallus wrote: »

Anarchy, the state will plunder into anarchy. The people will govern themselves, as there wont be enough numbers of gardai to patrol everywhere & keep a lid on the crime[there aren't at the moment]. They're not gonna listen to the cops & politicians if it comes to anarchy. I'd say if what you typed regarding the banks going bust, social being cut off altogether, people wont just sit back & wait for Kenny & company to sort it out. They'll go out and get their bread and butter by whatever means necessary. It will be inevitable, you wouldn't sit around and watch your children starve or be deprived of the simple necessities of life, would you? I know I wouldn't & I'd do whatever it takes to provide for my daughter if it became that bad. The ordinary honest decent civilian will be forced to a crime if everything went bust.

it will be like mad max
only with turnips

super_furry

electrobanana wrote: »

WONT SOMEBODY PLEASE THINK THE CHILDREN:eek:

Things are bad enough without bringing the Church into this.

UglyBolloxFace

paulieeye wrote: »

Hi folks...

I stopped reading at that. For some reason I hate when people use that phrase/opener and for the life of me I just cannot take them serious.

Schism

The next year or so will show us how bad things are going to get. I remain somewhat confident that a normal person can eek out a frugal existence while keeping the odd small luxury.

Now when I say luxury I mean going for a few pints on a Saturday not skiing in The Alps. People will just have to get used to living with less money.

Firefox11

This?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mLA-4zZM0cI

blogga

jakdelad wrote: »

start digging the pit fill it with water n beans
start watching bear grylls
lock n load buy a good skinning knife
get some flares a radio lots of coffe [not the aldi sh1te]
loo rolls condoms[well you never know]
a buy n sell
sit tight suck a sweet and watch for movement
this is gonna get ugly ......

You forgot the truckload of alcohol you will need.

stovelid

What will happen is that most people between the age of 15 and 30 will go back to a lifestyle befitting a small country like ours - like everybody else had to before the mid 90s.

TheZohan

TheZohan wrote: »

Yeah but that doesn't help the people here that lose their jobs. 11850 directory enquiries let off most of their Irish staff a few years ago and transferred all their jobs over to Manila...11890 on the other-hand are committed to keeping jobs in Ireland.

Just shows what you can do when your company cares about it's workers.

It's nothing personal against anyone but I'm still happy for the jobs to goto Manila or Cebu.. It's not patriotic but the job means infinitely more to them and their families than it does to anyone in Ireland.

And people in Ireland shouldn't worry.. It will never get as bad there as it is in the lowest 9/10's of the world.